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Old 06-07-18, 21:13   #1
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Default 1/2 finals - 10.07. 20:00 France - Belgium

2.50 3.16 2.97
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Old 07-07-18, 23:15   #2
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Im not planning on betting this game because i still have France to win it at 7.5 and this is prolly the real final because the other side of the bracket was just weak and devoided by the poor condition of Spain and Germany. Belgium was lucky with Brazil but they also looked very capable and they will definitelly have their chances here but France looked more of a team. For me Belgium still has some issues with Witsel in midfield, with back 3 looking dodgy at times but so far they overcomed it with their offensive talent or good coaching decision. France hasnt really been tested so far, altghough they did come back from a goal down against argies, but who can take that team as a serious indicator? They will surelly be tested here and i can see another interesting game, it has to be with this Belgium but it can also be a tactical one as France doesnt take big risks, but if first goal appears it can be quite interesting. Somehow i see France edging it but it wont be easy.
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Old 08-07-18, 01:53   #3
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Well said. France havent been tested yet. Poor in group stage. 4-3 vs Argies? Then 2-0 vs Uru without Cavani.
On the other hand: I have not seen any poor display of Belgium. B-Belgium dominated B-England. They truely got surprised by Japan but still they didnt need overtime.
Then they eliminated Brazil.. maybe lucky. But still against the top favorite.
Belgium changed their lineup. Finally KDB no more dmf or cmf, but more offensively.
Why France is favorite? Definitely not because of their previous rounds.
Prolly because of the name France. Varane, Umtiti easy defending against Lukaku, hazard. Hm, I have doubts.
50-50 game, so Belgium (0) 2,25 a no brainer for me
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Old 08-07-18, 10:25   #4
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fully agree ....

id put belgium above france thus far in game and quality specially upfront .... at least quality wich plays togueter and delivers .....

galons and well that youth cousin factor may put it 50/50 ......... hence (0) 2.25 value
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Old 08-07-18, 12:47   #5
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Hmmm... I see France as the favorite here. Not by a big margin but somewhere around 55-60% vs. 40-45% so broadly in line with the odds... Belgium knocked out the favorite and that must inspire confidence even if the outcome was lucky. In the match against Brazil the Belgian defense were run ragged by Brazil who just lacked a little bit of luck and some clinical finishing - I can see them struggling against the likes of Mbappe... But it's true that this should be the sternest test yet for France. It could well go into ET.
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Old 09-07-18, 05:25   #6
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Thomas Meunier (PSG) suspended for Belgium. He played every minute this WC and started 8 out of 10 games in qualification.
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Old 09-07-18, 12:34   #7
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The formation change by Martinez surprised me but was a masterstroke. Defensively they are far more solid as a unit in a 4-3-3 formation with Vertonghen playing LB rather than in a 3 with Carrasco offering nothing defensively. While Fellaini is horribly limited as a midfield player his obvious physicality and height at set pieces tips the balance and could nick a decisive goal. France's obvious advantage is Mbappe who at times is unplayable, but if Martinez maintains this shape I can't see past Belgium here.
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Old 09-07-18, 12:38   #8
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France - Belgium
Referee: Andrés Cunha (URU)

A bit of surprise i may say here with appointing Cunha for a 1/2 WC game. I mean, there are other better and more experienced referees for this stage, no idea how they are thinking. Cunha is the one with the least experience from CONMEBOL if they really wanted someone from there.

Anyway, just a couple of side notes
- Cunha has whistle France again at the group stage against Australia
- This is the second time we see the same scenario with whatever it does or doesn't mean. France kicked out Argentina and they got an Argentinian referee at their next knock out game. France kicked out Uruguay and now they are getting a referee from Uruguay lool
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Old 09-07-18, 14:50   #9
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The more i think about this one, the more i tend to agree with you guys that Belgium will pass through this France
Its mainly because offensivelly Belgium is just too impresive. DeBruyne and Hazard are just class above Kante or Pogba. Griezmann playing behind Giroud doesnt offer much, i mean solid plays but nothing special while both Giroud and Lukaku seem to drop a lot in midfield and that takes much from their physicality which would be more helpful in the box. France is too pasive and we saw only few drops of their offensive talent with Mbappe and also both full backs look decent going forward. I can definitelly see Belgium taking the lead if they dont play mind games here and go for it like they did in quarters and after we should see what France is made of but they will struggle, but still they should have their chances as Belgium has their soft spots but i do rate Belgium with more form and momentum and their offensive quality is above what french has shown thus far.
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Old 09-07-18, 15:48   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sirac View Post
The more i think about this one, the more i tend to agree with you guys that Belgium will pass through this France
Its mainly because offensivelly Belgium is just too impresive. DeBruyne and Hazard are just class above Kante or Pogba. Griezmann playing behind Giroud doesnt offer much, i mean solid plays but nothing special while both Giroud and Lukaku seem to drop a lot in midfield and that takes much from their physicality which would be more helpful in the box. France is too pasive and we saw only few drops of their offensive talent with Mbappe and also both full backs look decent going forward. I can definitelly see Belgium taking the lead if they dont play mind games here and go for it like they did in quarters and after we should see what France is made of but they will struggle, but still they should have their chances as Belgium has their soft spots but i do rate Belgium with more form and momentum and their offensive quality is above what french has shown thus far.
Same thing here. I've also started getting doubts about my bet on France to win this thing come through. Thus I've hedged and taken 1.Belgium/ 2. England at odds of 6.5 to cover just in case... Belgium have a lot of talent and Martinez is a more adroit tactician than Deschamps... Based on what we've seen so far in this tournament there isn't much separating these sides...

The one bet I like for this match is BTS at 1.8. I think both of these sides could find the net.
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Old 09-07-18, 15:49   #11
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I am also on the Belgium train. Main reason for me - the Belgians got really tested twice and they proved their worth. They came back from "hell" against Japan and they defeated the main favorite and 5 times winner Brazil. For me, this was the biggest question mark for Belgium - their lack of pedigree at this tournaments, which will disappoint them either against some of the big teams in knockout, or in a situation when they get behind the score-board in a knockout game. Belgium passed both tests and this is going to be an extreme confidence boost.

France had not been tested thus far and I don't count Argentina taking the lead as a real test. Everybody knew this Argentine team cannot win this game under any circumstances. I don't count Uruguay game as a big test, especially as the Latin Americans had their morals down after Cavani injury.
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Old 09-07-18, 16:26   #12
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I think the most vulnerable spot of France is their left defensive side and i believe that's where Belgium should and will try to hit with Meunier (and i will probably try him as anytime scorer).

There are many duels in this game which are not very "clear" or easy. Kante on Hazard, Pogba on De Bryune, Pavard on Chadil. As i wrote before, Kante has not even taken a single yellow card neither in qualification games, neither at friendlies and neither at this WC games so far (which is why at this game he is also my favorite to get a card, because of Hazard). Both of them have same height btw so i believe Kante will take over Hazard. Pogba vs De Bryune is a duel at which the second one can win only in technic cause in speed and body strength there is no question. It will be in favor of De Bryune if Belgium will play fast cause Pogba will be vulnerable and will make fouls, and it will be in favor of Pogba if Belgium will play slow cause he will have the chance to mark him closely every time. Chadli is a very good player but him as an attacking player and Pavard as a defensive one, i think Pavard will have no problem. There is also the duel Lukaku v Umtiti/Varane in which i think Umtiti will have no problem.

So it is going down to Lucas vs Meunier where Meunier is winning in everything there. Experience, body strength, technic, brain etc etc. If Hazard/De Bryune/Lukaku can find a pass on Meunier, then he can take the long shot and score.

Taking these thoughts now on the other end, we have Mbabbe vs Witsel and Vertonghen. I believe they will both help each other as Mbabbe is capable and fast. I also believe that Chadli will no go much forward so he might help too and let Witsel go to someone else, most likely on Griezmann. Then you have Fellaini on Griezmann or Tolisso. Since Fellaini is much taller than Griezman, i think Wistel will take him and Fellaini will assist while taking also Tolisso. There is also Alderweireld btw but i think he will be able to help anywhere since Meunier cannot be left alone on the top.

All in all, if i had to analyze the game in a way, this is how i would do it. Pretty much equal with one weak spot for France's left side and of course the strong spot of Belgium on their right side. Belgium should go for counter with Hazard left, Lukaku top, De Bryune little behind and Meunier on the right wing. I know that Martinez likes to play with Lukaku on right side together with De Bryune and Hazard only as top three but Meunier must get involved much more at this game in my opinion. Everything else beyond this "plan" is coming down to individual skills.

I'm not a coach tho, just a bettor, so i just analyzed what my bet will probably be
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Old 09-07-18, 16:39   #13
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just a quick remind to you:
Thomas Meunier is suspended for Belgium after he received his second yellow

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarianoV6 View Post
I think the most vulnerable spot of France is their left defensive side and i believe that's where Belgium should and will try to hit with Meunier (and i will probably try him as anytime scorer).

There are many duels in this game which are not very "clear" or easy. Kante on Hazard, Pogba on De Bryune, Pavard on Chadil. As i wrote before, Kante has not even taken a single yellow card neither in qualification games, neither at friendlies and neither at this WC games so far (which is why at this game he is also my favorite to get a card, because of Hazard). Both of them have same height btw so i believe Kante will take over Hazard. Pogba vs De Bryune is a duel at which the second one can win only in technic cause in speed and body strength there is no question. It will be in favor of De Bryune if Belgium will play fast cause Pogba will be vulnerable and will make fouls, and it will be in favor of Pogba if Belgium will play slow cause he will have the chance to mark him closely every time. Chadli is a very good player but him as an attacking player and Pavard as a defensive one, i think Pavard will have no problem. There is also the duel Lukaku v Umtiti/Varane in which i think Umtiti will have no problem.

So it is going down to Lucas vs Meunier where Meunier is winning in everything there. Experience, body strength, technic, brain etc etc. If Hazard/De Bryune/Lukaku can find a pass on Meunier, then he can take the long shot and score.

Taking these thoughts now on the other end, we have Mbabbe vs Witsel and Vertonghen. I believe they will both help each other as Mbabbe is capable and fast. I also believe that Chadli will no go much forward so he might help too and let Witsel go to someone else, most likely on Griezmann. Then you have Fellaini on Griezmann or Tolisso. Since Fellaini is much taller than Griezman, i think Wistel will take him and Fellaini will assist while taking also Tolisso. There is also Alderweireld btw but i think he will be able to help anywhere since Meunier cannot be left alone on the top.

All in all, if i had to analyze the game in a way, this is how i would do it. Pretty much equal with one weak spot for France's left side and of course the strong spot of Belgium on their right side. Belgium should go for counter with Hazard left, Lukaku top, De Bryune little behind and Meunier on the right wing. I know that Martinez likes to play with Lukaku on right side together with De Bryune and Hazard only as top three but Meunier must get involved much more at this game in my opinion. Everything else beyond this "plan" is coming down to individual skills.

I'm not a coach tho, just a bettor, so i just analyzed what my bet will probably be
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Old 09-07-18, 16:43   #14
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Isnt meunier out of the semis?
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Old 09-07-18, 16:50   #15
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bugger.. forgot about it

i still believe tho the left side of France is the weakest link
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Old 09-07-18, 20:28   #16
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I'm inclined to go against my instincts and go for goals in the Belgium-France match. Judging by the odds the expectation appears to be that France can contain the Belgian strike force, and WC history is littered with scoreless semis when goals were 'obvious.' But I have a hard time imagining a cagey start to this one, and can imagine both sides would be delighted to open the scoring and ratchet the pressure (and force the other wide to come forward in response. Over 2.75 is priced at 2.44 at the moment, but I'm waiting to see what the alternate odds turn out to be for team totals. Right now France is plus money on o1.5, and there's no line above o1 for Belgium. I'll do some mulling it over but I think a high score draw is possible in 90. Or I would think that if I hadn't watched overs in the semis go 3-7 the past five cups.
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Old 09-07-18, 21:27   #17
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The more i think about this, the more i'm on France. Meunier's missing is a big blow for Belgium and it's bigger if Carrasco will play left and Chadli will move to the right side. Very often Carrasco has his mind to play offensively to self promote if i can say that, and forgetting his defensive duties. We will see with line ups but right now, every scenario that i have made in my mind with those two at those place is negative for Belgium. Fellaini marking Griezmann is not good because of height difference and the right side of France with Pavard and Mbabbe will have a party with Carrasco on that side.
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Old 09-07-18, 22:08   #18
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mind also that weather forecast is talking about "sprinkles" or rain from 10 in the morning till 18:00 at afternoon, so the pitch might be wet

https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/...terburg/hourly
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Old 10-07-18, 02:12   #19
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Belgium is playing their 3rd knockout game in 9 days.
France 3rd in 11 days.
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Old 10-07-18, 10:52   #20
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Lots of people flip-flopping with their views here which is an indication of how hard this game is to get a good read on; and sometimes a sign that the best bet is 'no bet'. I'm actually shifting more towards France now, but will await the lineups to make my final decision.

Mariano's thought share on positional matchups is excellent and kind of concur's with my own. France has some key advantages in this game before the loss of Meunier, but his absence weakens an already dodgy backline. Let's not forget that Brazil could have easily scored a goal first before the OG, so it could have been a very different game for Belgium. I agree with a comment above that Belgium has probably been tested a lot more, but then that's largely of their own making and not because they've had to fight back against a superior/equally matched opponent. France for me have always looked very controlled in their games - even against Argentina - and look a strong unit that maintains good spacing all around the pitch. I've mentioned several times the weak side of Belgium being their right and this coincides with France's most dangerous attacking side with Mbappe. But we shouldn't discount Griezemann who is equally adept at finding pockets of space down the left side. Because of the slow movement of Witsel and Fallaini (if he plays) they will find it very hard to pick up Griezemann and Mbappe without slow midfield help and if it's Carrasco tracking back I really have my doubts. Again I'm waiting for lineups to find out. The problem with playing a 3 man backline with wingbacks is it often becomes 3 players defending the space usually defended by 2, as you want to stay close and close the gaps rather than spread across the field. Based on this I can see France winning the corner bet with the risk always being that they score early.

Finally I think we'll see goals here so will be playing irrespective of lineups - Over 2.25 goals at 1.80 looks good to me.

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Old 10-07-18, 14:52   #21
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I don't see France as clear favourite for tonight match, but my idea is that Belgium can decide for itselves.
My personally idea , compared the players is:
GOALKEEPER: absolutely Cortouis.
DEFENSE: only Varane (probably the best center after Thiago Silva and Godin in the WC) is at the same level of Kompany, but Alderweireled, Vertonghen, Vermaelen are class above Lucas, Umtiti, and young Pavard.
MIDFIELD: Kantè-Pogba-Matuidi are good players, but the line DeBruyne-Witsel-Chadli has more fantasy and touch of ball. And Yes, Fellaini should suffer Mbappè but in this case I think there will be others 1-2 belgian player to give their "attention" to the new Pelè.
FORWARD: Mbappè has scored 3 goals on 6 by France in action, Griezmann 0 goals (ok, I'm joking, but two penalties and Muslera, aren't real goals...), Giroud 0 goals. Pavard, Varane and own goals are others.
Belgium has score 14 times (one penalty and one own-goal included): Lukaku 4, Hazard 2, then Mertens, Batsuany, Januzay, De Bruyne, Vertonghen, Fellaini, Chadli....who miss? ))
I want to say that, if Belgium can stop Mbappè, France doesn't score (more or less...), while the fire-power of Red Devils is more various.
Finally, give a look to this statistics: https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/statistics/teams/shots . For me, it confirms the type of play of both squad.
COACH: Deschamps has more experience, but he has lost the finale of Europeans in front of his fans...
Martinez not so famous, but with him, Belgium has played 25 matches, 19W - 5 draw and one lost (a friendly against Spain, the first match: the strip with no defeat is at 24....).
All in all, my idea is that Belgium can score twice, and probably France one at least.
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Old 10-07-18, 17:17   #22
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Default Martinez vs Deschamps

I read about the great coach of Belgium Martinez
Personally I think that Didier Deschamps' palmares as international experience and successes are much better than Martinez
Not to mention Didier Deschamps as a player
Then Belgium will also win, perhaps for better players, but as a tactic, definitely better Deschamps
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Old 10-07-18, 17:45   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by egomax View Post
I
FORWARD: Mbappè has scored 3 goals on 6 by France in action, Griezmann 0 goals (ok, I'm joking, but two penalties and Muslera, aren't real goals...), Giroud 0 goals. Pavard, Varane and own goals are others.
Belgium has score 14 times (one penalty and one own-goal included): Lukaku 4, Hazard 2, then Mertens, Batsuany, Januzay, De Bruyne, Vertonghen, Fellaini, Chadli....who miss? ))
I want to say that, if Belgium can stop Mbappè, France doesn't score (more or less...), while the fire-power of Red Devils is more various.
the attackers of France, excluding Giroud, are not pure attackers even if they make many goals in the clubs but above all provide assists
But they have fast wings and in the qualifying matches they showed a lot of speed in the restart
However, at times, due to the difficulty in concentrating in defense and midfield, Pogba does not seem to me at best
Of course a Belgium that allows Nainggolan to leave home ......
I remain of my idea that is a great offensive team from the waist up, has some of the strongest current players, but with defensive problems against fast teams and tend to sometimes underestimate the opponent (eg Tunisia 1st half and Japan)
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Old 10-07-18, 18:07   #24
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Well, at least Carrasco is not starting

Expected line ups i believe, let's watch a beauty now

I took Kante to be booked because he has no yellow cards as i wrote again... If not now against Hazard (what logic says to be the match-up), then when and against whom??? I just had to take that, even for the fun of it cause i can't see a DMC so "clean" jaja
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Old 10-07-18, 19:40   #25
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C'mon Belgium! Although France has a slightly upper hand for now.
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Old 10-07-18, 19:52   #26
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As a France punter I like that Belgium didn't convert in their first 15 minute powerplay, but it remains even for now. Just depends on where momentum shifts next and who'll be able to convert that ...
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Old 10-07-18, 19:54   #27
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Both semifinals will be hard. No bet for me until weekend. France should play better, they havent showed much except the game before quarter-finals.
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Old 10-07-18, 20:47   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarianoV6 View Post

I took Kante to be booked because he has no yellow cards as i wrote again... If not now against Hazard (what logic says to be the match-up), then when and against whom??? I just had to take that, even for the fun of it cause i can't see a DMC so "clean" jaja
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Old 10-07-18, 20:49   #29
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jajajaja i was waiting for that ONE game that he was gonna be booked and i got him!! Cheers mate
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Old 10-07-18, 20:52   #30
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If France wins this WC it will be a disgrace!!
They showed nothing in second half, parking bus nad fouling, playing dirty, lying on the ground, disgracce!!
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