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Old 26-06-18, 00:01   #1
WiserthantheCrowd
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Default 30/6 R16 Uruguay vs. Portugal (2.95 - 3.1 - 2.9)

This R16 match will take place on Saturday but I am posting it now because these odds seem really juicy to me...

Uruguay and Portugal are trading at roughly-even odds. Some bookies are offering Uruguay to qualify at 2.

I will happily take Uruguay at these odds.

Portugal haven't shown anything to deserve these odds. They were weaker than Spain but somehow managed a draw because Spain held back... They got outplayed by Morocco but managed to win because the North Africans failed to find the net... Finally Portugal got lucky against Iran who almost sent them packing in the last match... I've said it before and I will say it again - this Portuguese side looks totally overrated to me. The CBs are aged and slow. The MF isn't creative and their offense is too dependent on Ronaldo... Uruguay have put in a good performance so far and offensively Cavani and Suarez should be able to keep up with Portugal... However, I see Uruguay as stronger in MF and defense...

I presume the odds are still going to move because I just can't imagine that the market believes that these 2 sides are evenly-matched. Uruguay are clearly the stronger side here. This is not a 50/50 proposition. I'd peg the odds of Uruguay at 60-65% and Portugal at 35-40% at best.

Anyway, I've taken Uruguay for a larger stake and expect the odds to drop. That is why I am posting this now.
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Old 26-06-18, 02:56   #2
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I dont think Portugal got lucky against Iran, it may look that way with the big miss in final stages but reality is they controlled the game tactically, their manager made few good subs, especially bringing Quaresma into the starting line-up, but Iran was never in that game, only because of slow footy of Portugal and their catenaccio mentality they actually had a chance, also Iran penalty was a complete joke. But i do agree with your bet. Its not gonna be a classic because Uruguay is very organized side but boy do they lack creativity, some real hard workers in the team but not much talent. They play simple footy, to their strenght and they will prolly be pasive, altghough in Russia game they did switched to 532 playing bit more into opponent half. Portugal indeed with a lot of issues at the back, especially Raphael, but also CBs looked exposed at times and also with Silva and Guedes out of form, but prolly Quaresma will start, but i would exclude another moment of magic from him. Id say Uruguay more solid, and their strenght matched Portugal weaknesses.Low scoring affair hedged somehow by Saurez/Cavani class altghough Cavani struggled in groups, maybe now with the goal he will play better, but this are sort of strikers who dont need confidence but Uruguay failed to impress offensivelly anyway and thats why prolly the odds that and their similar mentality to Portugal, safity first, go for 1-0 win so i would definitelly not exclude extra time.
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Old 29-06-18, 16:54   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd View Post
This R16 match will take place on Saturday but I am posting it now because these odds seem really juicy to me...

Uruguay and Portugal are trading at roughly-even odds. Some bookies are offering Uruguay to qualify at 2.

I will happily take Uruguay at these odds.

Portugal haven't shown anything to deserve these odds. They were weaker than Spain but somehow managed a draw because Spain held back... They got outplayed by Morocco but managed to win because the North Africans failed to find the net... Finally Portugal got lucky against Iran who almost sent them packing in the last match... I've said it before and I will say it again - this Portuguese side looks totally overrated to me. The CBs are aged and slow. The MF isn't creative and their offense is too dependent on Ronaldo... Uruguay have put in a good performance so far and offensively Cavani and Suarez should be able to keep up with Portugal... However, I see Uruguay as stronger in MF and defense...

I presume the odds are still going to move because I just can't imagine that the market believes that these 2 sides are evenly-matched. Uruguay are clearly the stronger side here. This is not a 50/50 proposition. I'd peg the odds of Uruguay at 60-65% and Portugal at 35-40% at best.

Anyway, I've taken Uruguay for a larger stake and expect the odds to drop. That is why I am posting this now.
I agree. Took Urugvay myself. Portugal is not so good except Ronaldo. Hopefully they will close in on him.
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Old 29-06-18, 19:25   #4
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I'm in agreement aswell, think it's great odds on Uruguay. Portugal may have Ronaldo but as a team I think Uruguay are a bit better and it looks like they will be without missings as defender Gimenez have recovered..
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Old 29-06-18, 20:55   #5
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The only bet apart from Uruguay to qualify is 0-0 FT for low stakes. Odds on under are ridiculous but you never know with Ronaldo and goals.
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Old 30-06-18, 12:59   #6
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Uruguay looked better alright, but we should also take note that Charruas played in a cake walk group, while Portugal was facing one top team, and two well coached, gritty teams. On paper it seems like a low scoring affair, but both teams have a lot of fire power in attack who are capable of scoring from half a chance. I am pretty conflicted about this one as you can see , just speaking my thoughts aloud, I hope we see a good match tonight.
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Old 30-06-18, 13:32   #7
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Morocco, 4th of Group B, is probably as strong as Uruguary Top of Group A and definitely stronger than Egypt/Saudi & Russia.
Portugal who managed to score vs Iran & Morocco & 3 vs spain, will manage to score vs uruguay.
i am confident that Portugal will start with pace and power from the start. corners could be a bet for this match as portugal like to throw balls into the box.
and when this happens wouldn't be surprised to see a penalty in the match.

portugal to qualify seems good. over 1.5 goals. over 9.5 corners. penalty in the game.
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Old 30-06-18, 13:34   #8
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yes portugal do seem shaky when they are pressured, but that won't happen unless they take the lead in the game. so yes probably would be best to cashout in the final 10 minutes if portugal have the lead. however portugal don't lean back direclty after they score. they play nice attacking football
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Old 30-06-18, 17:00   #9
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After the entertainment of the 1st game in the Round of 16 I can see this being a dour affair, with Uruguay shading it. I have question marks over Portugal***8217;s defense with it looking shaky during their group games and Pepe is clearly past his best. Carvalho in MF also looks a bit dodgy.

Uruguay look really solid but haven***8217;t been that spectacular in what was the easiest group by some distance. They haven***8217;t conceded in a good string of games and have a bit more danger upfront for me.

Uruguay 0 AH @ 2.05
CS 0-0 @ 7
Portugal corner match bet @ 1.80
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Old 30-06-18, 17:08   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pkp835 View Post
Morocco, 4th of Group B, is probably as strong as Uruguary
No, they are clearly NOT...
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Old 30-06-18, 18:24   #11
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No, they are clearly NOT...
why are they clearly not ? morocco out played Portugal in their game. drew spain and lost to iran in an exta time own goal in a game they dominated.

obviously odds on portugal for this game going down now.

can u explain what makes uruguay stronger than portugal?
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Old 30-06-18, 18:43   #12
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Quote:
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why are they clearly not ? morocco out played Portugal in their game. drew spain and lost to iran in an exta time own goal in a game they dominated.

obviously odds on portugal for this game going down now.

can u explain what makes uruguay stronger than portugal?
Just because Morocco outplayed Portugal that doesn't mean that Uruguay are at the same level as Morocco. It means that Portugal are at the same level as Morocco - at least they were in that game... Morocco have a good team of European-based players and with Renard they have a good coach. Although they outplayed Portugal and Iran they failed to score against those sides. Clearly Morocco are defensively strong. However, I'd rate the CB duo of Godin and Gimenez to be a bit stronger... In MF the 2 sides could probably compete although Morocco might have a slight edge... The biggest difference between Morocco and Uruguay would be upfront where Morocco lack world-class strikers like Cavani and Suarez... Overall Uruguay are definitely stronger than Morocco. And if Morocco outplayed Portugal you should back Uruguay... I'm struggling to see your argument for Portugal here.

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Old 30-06-18, 20:02   #13
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So far so good. Uruguay in tactical controll but boy i dont like this ugly tactics, defending deep and now after goal refusing to play, just passing, getting fks; this is dangerous because theyre allowing Portugal to come over them, but fortunatelly Portugal looks slow, without ideas, just crossing the ball which is easy pray for Godin @ Jimenez. But i think they will speed it up and Uruguay needs to look for counters.
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Old 30-06-18, 21:08   #14
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Just perfect the defense of Uruguay today, brilliant! And the only system that can take down this defense is the tiki taka.

With two good defensive teams on the pitch, it is just a matter who will take first the lead. I was surprised tho to see Portugal playing so open and attacking football, i'm not used to see that from Santos. What was he thinking? They knew that Uruguay is two teams, the defensive one and Suarez/Cavani in the attack. And yet, they left so much space at their defense and got punished at the end. It was a below bar performance from Portugal i think with no clue how to break the defense of Uruguay.

Bravo to Uruguay but they wont be the same if Cavani wont be able to play
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Old 30-06-18, 21:31   #15
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Well they are good defensivelly but imo it wasnt perfect. A team like France, with their athelticism and a good number 9 for crosses and good wingers, will roll over them with ease if you allow such amount of domination and defend that deep. It looked easy because the tempo was slow, because Uruguay wanted it this way and prolly because of heat, both set of players looked like sweating like in a desert and finally because Portugal is poor offensivelly. In a same scenario game i simply dont give too many chances to Uruguay. Hope they will be braver and play more football, this negativity wont work forever, they were even punished by this lethargic Portugal with a header from corner so i really hope they will be more agresive and not retire so deep and so early in the game.
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Old 30-06-18, 23:56   #16
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I would say only Belgium and Brazil play aggressive even when leading in this tournament. Pretty much all other teams including Spain take their foot off after the first goal.
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Old 01-07-18, 11:24   #17
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Hmmm... I watched this match and Uruguay seemed pretty much in charge to me although they sat back. Portugal just seemed harmless... But looking at the stats, you'd think that Portugal totally dominated the game. They had 584 passes of which 489 were completed. Uruguay only had 266 passes of which 185 were completed. Portugal had 20 goal attempts compared to Uruguay's 6. Portugal had 10 corners to Uruguay's 2, etc., etc... I would have never guessed that. This just goes to show how one's perception can be clouded...
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