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Old 06-06-18, 03:08   #1
MarianoV6
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Default Special bets, which ones you like most

Exactly what the title is saying

i have found several special bets like team group points, lowest scoring team, Continental betting, top club goalscorer, tournament totals, competition specials, team total goals (it doesn't have to be YES, it can be NO as well ), top team goalscorer, which i found all very interesting.

Analyzing the teams and trying to find at least one bet from all those above will help also during the tournament to understand better the teams.

One example is that if you try to find the top scorer of Peru, then you probably miss your money by 99,9%. And this is because Peru is not based on one player and their gaming style is based on finding open space. If and When they will find, then the one who will find himself in top position will be the scorer. But Peru on the other hand maybe can give another special bet, like winning one group game and this will come after analyzing all group teams.

Let's see which special bets are your favorite ones I will start writing mine from tomorrow
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Old 06-06-18, 03:29   #2
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In some bets like overall tournament totals, it is important to know against whom is playing the first team of the group at the next round and at the quarter finals. I will try to make a small map of this tomorrow also.

Like with Belgium for example: They play against England, Tunisia and Panama at the group stage. It''s not hard but also not impossible to finish first. As a group winner, they will either play against Poland, or Senegal or Colombia or Japan (depending who will finish second). Are they good enough to pass? Yes it's the answer. So whom are they facing next at the quarter finals? Assuming that Brazil will do their job and finish first at their group, then they will play against the runner up of group G which more likely will be Mexico. So at the end, Belgium will have to face Brazil at the quarter finals.

If Belgium decides to finish second at their group (with England first), then they will face one of Poland, Senegal, Colombia or Japan as the winner of their group and at the quarter final they will face Germany! If Germany wont finish first, then they will take the place of Mexico and they will face Brazil.

The question is, with Brazil on one hand and Germany on the other, can Belgium go further in the tournament? And hence the question, is it worth to take a bet on Belgium when the situation is like that? Because it's not about if they can pass Brazil or Germany, it's about how easy that is! So further search is needed in all bets in my opinion
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Old 06-06-18, 23:30   #3
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Had a look on most scoring group. Looked backed and its always( well at least for last 3 wc) about the big guns groups: Argentina, Brazil, Spain, Germany. This time bet365 see as favorite, i would say big favorite group G where Belgium and England shall have a field day vs Tunisia or Panama. It makes sence both are huge favorite to go through while Tunisia and Panama dont look like great defensive teams. But like i said England for me is overrated, may be good on counters but against parked buses they shall struggle. I dont see them scoring that much. Belgium world cup winner on paper with the amount of quality they have but yet to prove as a team, still they should trash both. Low chances for group A and H, both have some underish teams, ofc big question mark Saudi defense but Russia struggling to score, Pharaons might be without Salah and Uruguay plays safe. I would exclude this groups from the list. I would also exclude Spain group with the king of under Iran, Portugal defensive minded while Morroco arent that much of a scorers and i reckon we wont see another Spain-Netherlands 1-5 in the group debut, will be much more safity and tactical game. I would also exclude France group because all teams except France are defensive minded and they struggle to score, Peru without top-scorer will park the bus, aussies look more organized with new coach, Denmark solid team but doesnt score much. So the battle will be between Brazil, Germoney and Argies imo. I rate Germoney group tightest of all. Ofc South Korea are serious candidates for a trashing but neither Mexico or Sweden are such great offensive teams, in fact Sweden is organised and underish as hell, Mexico usually solid in group stages wont receive many, so i dont see Germoney trashing neither , maybe a 2-0 over Sweden which they own historically. So it will be between argies and Brazil. I think its gonna be close but i rate argies group more prone to overs, Nigeria and Iceland have terrible defenses, i can see Argentina having a field day against Iceland, while both dont lookthat poor when going forward. Croatia is solid but they do have enough talent scoring wise plud argies are kind of wild and unbalanced, have doubts over their defense. Brazil group looks more balanced, i can see some tight games over there, plus Brazil is expected to play better defense under Tito but its true they can be explosive up-front. I reckon its gonna be close so Group D pays 8.5 for highest number of goals while group E 7 so my choice will be argies group.
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Old 07-06-18, 21:54   #4
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The pair Panama and Costa Rica to finish at the bottom of their groups is a fine combo bet for me which is giving currently 2.50 odds
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Old 07-06-18, 21:59   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarianoV6 View Post
The pair Panama and Costa Rica to finish at the bottom of their groups is a fine combo bet for me which is giving currently 2.50 odds
Yes.
Today Costa Rica showed nothing, I dont think they can score at all. Even if they played without their best striker.
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Old 08-06-18, 08:46   #6
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Another interesting, yet not final, special bet is "Top goalscorer - Top England Premier League Goalscorer".

Currently Kane (England) is the favorite there with odds at 7.00 together with Fernando Jesus (Brazil). Second favorite is Romelu Lukaku with odds at 8.00 and here is where my eyes are.

One of the negative things in my opinion that England has is that they don't create so many clear goal chances. Yesterday (with a B squad, ok) against Costa Rica they had at half time 26 dangerous attacks while Costa Rica had only 2. Statistics doesn't always telling the truth cause that 26 dangerous attacks where mostly rubbish. I believe, latortuga has put it right at the Group G thread. Also, as a British team, they try many long shots which means that anyone can score.

We all know Brazil i guess. We all know also that Neymar is the penalty taker there as he scores also with attempts. Brazil is not based only on one target man up front as many players are trying to score (Neymar, Paulinho, Coutinho and so on). The only negative i find for my bet is that i expect them to reach at final stages (last four at least) but still...

At Belgium, Lukaku is the main scorer together with Hazard. You can find both of them at all of their games having score at least one and at games where Belgium has score 3 or more, you will find at least one of them having score 2 at least. As with Brazil, i expect them too to get far in the competition and they have prove that they can score easily at any opponent. I explained their road to final at another threat.

Lukaku with odds at 8.00 is very tempting for me (Hazard has 17.00 but ok, Lukaku is the forward so logic says he will score more) and that bet is in my option as the one i mentioned earlier. It's a risky bet but the odds worth a shot, even if i lower my usual stakes.
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Old 08-06-18, 09:57   #7
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Some other interesting bets which are being offered at the special bets section are:

Stage of Elimination
Colombia last 16 at 2.40 because their group is unpredictable but they can pass i thing and because at the next stage they will face either Belgium or England.

Team Group Points
Iceland under 2 at 2.75. My opinion is that their Euro fairy tail story will end here as they have to face Croatia, Argentina and Nigeria. I don't see them getting anything from the first 2 so only Nigeria is left. They play each other at the second round in which stage nothing is over yet so both will have a motive. It's a risky choice of course but i can't see them winning Nigeria. In fact, i can't see any of them winning at their between them game. Negative factor is if any of them has place any bet

Costa Rica under 2 points is also an option. They are facing Brazil, Serbia and Switzerland. Odds are at 2.10

Top Club Goalscorer
Chelsea - Hazard (Belgium) at 2.10. This bet is actually in my choices

Team total goals
Belgium over 8.5 at 2.10

Top team goalscorer
Marcus Berg at 3.50 (Sweden)
Isco at 5.50 (Spain)
Lukaku at 2.75 (Belgium)

Competition Specials
Timo Werner over 2.5 goals at 1.80

Iceland to win a group game, NO at 2.00
Costa Rica to win a group game, NO at 1.70
Japan to win a group game, NO at 2.10 (a bit risky this one because of their group but still it's not a bad choice)

That's all i can see and from which my only choices at the moment is one bet with Lukaku, the top club goalscorer and the combo bet i posted earlier.

Last edited by MarianoV6; 08-06-18 at 09:59.
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Old 08-06-18, 17:03   #8
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Team to get 0 points

In the past few editions of the WC, the number of teams that got 0 points in the group stage has always fluctuated between 2 and 3.

For this year's WC, the following teams are my top favorites to take 0 points:

- Saudi Arabia
- Panama
- South Korea
- Iran

Saudi Arabia at 3 is a nice bet. The spanner in the works in the case of Saudi could be them playing Egypt on the last day. If Egypt are out of the competition and have nothing to play for, I'm not sure they will give it their all...

South Korea is the bet I like most at odds of 5. On day 1, they will be playing Sweden and that is pretty much their only hope for a point (Mexico and Germany are next)... The Korean defense is a shamble and upfront things are not coming together. I can't see them getting more than a possible point against Sweden and that also looks rather unlikely.

Panama are hopeless. For me they are the weakest side at this WC after Saudi Arabia. Unlike Saudi Arabia, however, they are in with some stronger opposition. Their only hope for a point would be on match day 3 against Tunisia but I think the Tunisians will still be motivated enough even if they are out of the competition. Panama to get 0 points at 3 seems good value.

I'm not that sure about Iran. They could get a draw against Morocco but I think it's more likely that they will lose that one. However, I would not be surprised if they do manage to get a draw against Portugal... I might skip this one.
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Old 08-06-18, 17:38   #9
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Serbia to finish rock bottom is nice bet in bet365 as they show nothing after they fired Muslin. Players starts to argue between themselves in and after game with Chile B team.
Sure Brazil and Swiss will be over them and Costa Rica can manage a win with unorganized team with Krstajic whom players don't love that much
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Old 08-06-18, 17:40   #10
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Another nice bet is Argentina to finish in top 4 teams but I don't expect them to win this one too as Messi dictate who will play or who will not
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Old 08-06-18, 21:09   #11
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Quote:
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Team to get 0 points


I'm not that sure about Iran. They could get a draw against Morocco but I think it's more likely that they will lose that one. However, I would not be surprised if they do manage to get a draw against Portugal... I might skip this one.
Be carefull with Iran, they might be the black horse of this group. Iran did never end without a pic taken in their World's Cup history. And the team even looks in better shape than 4 years ago where they managed to take a point against Nigeria and almost did it against the finalist Argentina.

Iran is not a scoring machine but is solid defensively, Morocco is pretty much the same team (with better individualities and technic) but overall it could be a boring and closed game, Iran in my opinion can even surprise Portugal here.

The good forward "Azmoun" has to be followed as well, he is almost at home in Russia as being part of the russian club Rubin Kazan.
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Old 09-06-18, 02:08   #12
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Be carefull with Iran, they might be the black horse of this group. Iran did never end without a pic taken in their World's Cup history. And the team even looks in better shape than 4 years ago where they managed to take a point against Nigeria and almost did it against the finalist Argentina.

Iran is not a scoring machine but is solid defensively, Morocco is pretty much the same team (with better individualities and technic) but overall it could be a boring and closed game, Iran in my opinion can even surprise Portugal here.

The good forward "Azmoun" has to be followed as well, he is almost at home in Russia as being part of the russian club Rubin Kazan.
Yup, even if Iran are still sitting on 0 points on match day 3, they won't be opening up and creating spaces for Portugal... Portugal aren't good at taking inferior sides apart and Iran know how to defend very well. Plus, while their midfield still is weak, they do have better options upfront than in the past and could create problems for the aged Portuguese backline. Moreover, they will be happy to just take a point - nobody back home is expecting Team Melli to qualify...

So I will just leave it at 3 prime contenders for ZERO points.
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Old 09-06-18, 07:27   #13
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Hi Mariano,

I also think Colombia will end up losing in the round of 16. This prediction should work out, in theory...

Iceland Under 2 points - is risky, but might be worth a while.

Costa Rica - might surprise someone. I've watched the Serbs against Chile and they were awful. I'd be surprised to see them win any game in the group. And I'd give CR the edge in the match-up. CR might end up wining against Serbia or drawing w. Serbia and Switzerland...

Hazard - don;t know...he's not the best scorer out there as Belgians have a lot of firepower. Also, they tend to score a lot from crosses or from the wings (Carrasco or Meunier) as Hazard drops to a more central position, w. Mertens behind Lukaku. Also, consider Chelsea has Giroud (if he'll play as regular he'll definitely outscore Hazard) and Wiliam (who could end up scoring a couple for Brazil as well). Why not even Moses who has a more offensive role for Nigeria. I would not risk the bet at these odds.

Sorry, but I don;t like any of your top team GS bets. Maybe Lukaku (but again, too much firepower for Belgium). Also, he's not quite the type of scorer who puts more than a goal/game (I'm referring to the United & Belgium starts) .

Agree on Werner over 2,5 - I think it is pretty safe.

Finally, I wouldn't risk money on those 3 teams not getting a win

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarianoV6 View Post
Some other interesting bets which are being offered at the special bets section are:

Stage of Elimination
Colombia last 16 at 2.40 because their group is unpredictable but they can pass i thing and because at the next stage they will face either Belgium or England.

Team Group Points
Iceland under 2 at 2.75. My opinion is that their Euro fairy tail story will end here as they have to face Croatia, Argentina and Nigeria. I don't see them getting anything from the first 2 so only Nigeria is left. They play each other at the second round in which stage nothing is over yet so both will have a motive. It's a risky choice of course but i can't see them winning Nigeria. In fact, i can't see any of them winning at their between them game. Negative factor is if any of them has place any bet

Costa Rica under 2 points is also an option. They are facing Brazil, Serbia and Switzerland. Odds are at 2.10

Top Club Goalscorer
Chelsea - Hazard (Belgium) at 2.10. This bet is actually in my choices

Team total goals
Belgium over 8.5 at 2.10

Top team goalscorer
Marcus Berg at 3.50 (Sweden)
Isco at 5.50 (Spain)
Lukaku at 2.75 (Belgium)

Competition Specials
Timo Werner over 2.5 goals at 1.80

Iceland to win a group game, NO at 2.00
Costa Rica to win a group game, NO at 1.70
Japan to win a group game, NO at 2.10 (a bit risky this one because of their group but still it's not a bad choice)

That's all i can see and from which my only choices at the moment is one bet with Lukaku, the top club goalscorer and the combo bet i posted earlier.
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Old 09-06-18, 07:43   #14
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When it comes to special bets I'd like to risk a bit more and look for higher odds, considering the risk of the outcome. Here are the ones I've taken so far:

Brasil, Uruguay y Argentina to received 10 o more yellow cards each @7.00 1,5/10

I'm counting on the fact that they'll all get out of groups so at least 4 games (5/6 for Ar & Br) and that Uruguay is a pretty aggressive team. Especially in the last 16 they'll probably be paired w. Spain or Portugal, I see them getting at least 4 in this match, so with around 2/game in the groups I can see the numbers here.

Lukaku, Griezmann, Diego Costa y G. Jesus to score 16 or more between them @10.00 2/10

I'm counting on the fact that their teams will play at least 5 games (QF) and I can see all among the goalscorers of the tournament. I'm hoping Lukaku and Griezmann to contribute with at least 10 together.

2,5 goals in at least 3 games of each group (this means 3/6 games in a group to go over) @ 26.00 1,5/10

I know it is very risky, but the average in last WCs was around 2,5 (2,7 in 2014). I think the odds are worth the risk

Last one for now:

L. Messi, C. Ronaldo, H. Kane y G. Jesus to score 4 or more goals each @ 51.00 1/10

they should all be their teams' top GS (maybe Jesus to be fighting with Neymar for that).
Messi & Ronaldo are in form and also penalty takers.
Kane doesn't need a lot to score and I hope in a trashing game in England Panama where Kane would sum up at least 2
Jesus is the risky bet here, but he should start as a regular. If Brasil wins the first one and he scores I'm pretty confident he'll continue as a regular and reach the numbers.

I have a longer list, but haven't played them. I'll consider them later this week
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Old 09-06-18, 09:09   #15
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Hola Cuore2010

I must admit that the is something with Costa Rica but i'm not sure what... From what i have seen from them, i rate them very low. But then again, when i see the odds on them in some specific bets, the picture is different. So either i am very wrong and there is something with CS which i haven't see or there is something wrong with the other teams. We will see.

About Hazard... Yes, of course there is Giroud but i'm taking into consideration couple more things for this bet. The first one is also the one you mentioned, how often he will play regular. The second thing is how far each team can go. France at quarter finals will have to play with Croatia at round of 16 and then they will face Uruguay or one from Spain/Portugal. And here i'm taking into consideration how many goals can they score against those teams and IF they can pass them. So France has more chances to score most of their goals at the group stage.

Belgium on the other hand will have to face Germany or Brazil at the quarter finals but i believe a) they can score against both of them and b) they might even pass them and c) they have good chances to score many goals both at group stage and at the last 16.

Regarding Belgium goals, during qualification games Lukaku had 9 goals, Hazard had 6 goals and then there was Mertens and Meunier with 5. Giroud had 4 btw. During their last 5 friendlies, Lukaku had 6 goals, Hazard had 2 goals and then there was Fellaini, Batshuanyi and De Bruyne with one goal. Also to mention that in three of those games, Hazard came out before the 60' min of the game.

So for this bet im taking into consideration all those things (the stages of elimination, the how often each player is playing, their opponents, their form, their recent history) and that's where i'm basing it.

Just to be clear, i'm not trying to convincing you or someone else, just explaining the way i think. In betting like in life, there is always a good possibility for someone to be wrong As i said after all, these are bets from which i consider to take only very few (2-3), and i will take my bets at the last minute because there is always a possibility for late injuries or some other things, no rush for me at the moment.

Risky your bets but there are couple of them that i like. Without knowing the referee i wouldn't take card bets unless you replace those teams with Panama, Colombia and Nigeria Buena suerte!
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Old 09-06-18, 10:45   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuore2010 View Post
When it comes to special bets I'd like to risk a bit more and look for higher odds, considering the risk of the outcome. Here are the ones I've taken so far:

Brasil, Uruguay y Argentina to received 10 o more yellow cards each @7.00 1,5/10

I'm counting on the fact that they'll all get out of groups so at least 4 games (5/6 for Ar & Br) and that Uruguay is a pretty aggressive team. Especially in the last 16 they'll probably be paired w. Spain or Portugal, I see them getting at least 4 in this match, so with around 2/game in the groups I can see the numbers here.

Lukaku, Griezmann, Diego Costa y G. Jesus to score 16 or more between them @10.00 2/10

I'm counting on the fact that their teams will play at least 5 games (QF) and I can see all among the goalscorers of the tournament. I'm hoping Lukaku and Griezmann to contribute with at least 10 together.

2,5 goals in at least 3 games of each group (this means 3/6 games in a group to go over) @ 26.00 1,5/10

I know it is very risky, but the average in last WCs was around 2,5 (2,7 in 2014). I think the odds are worth the risk

Last one for now:

L. Messi, C. Ronaldo, H. Kane y G. Jesus to score 4 or more goals each @ 51.00 1/10

they should all be their teams' top GS (maybe Jesus to be fighting with Neymar for that).
Messi & Ronaldo are in form and also penalty takers.
Kane doesn't need a lot to score and I hope in a trashing game in England Panama where Kane would sum up at least 2
Jesus is the risky bet here, but he should start as a regular. If Brasil wins the first one and he scores I'm pretty confident he'll continue as a regular and reach the numbers.

I have a longer list, but haven't played them. I'll consider them later this week
What bookie did you get these bets?
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Old 09-06-18, 13:11   #17
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What bookie did you get these bets?
Betfair
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Old 10-06-18, 21:25   #18
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I dunno why when you suggest some bet you don t write the odds cauze everthing depends on them.I mine if you think that Brazil will take a tittle that could be good bet if the odd is 5-6 but if it is 3-4 that s not good bet at all...
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Old 10-06-18, 23:02   #19
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Serbia to finish rock bottom is nice bet in bet365 as they show nothing after they fired Muslin. Players starts to argue between themselves in and after game with Chile B team.
Sure Brazil and Swiss will be over them and Costa Rica can manage a win with unorganized team with Krstajic whom players don't love that much
Can you tell us more about that?
In my opinion Switzerland is nothing special, they play uncreative football and they probably had the easiest group in Qual campaign including the easiest opponent on play-off game and they still couldn't score more than 23 goals even thought having teams like Andorra, Faroe Island, Latvia in the group Qual.

I don't like their forwards either, in my opinion Seferovic, Drmic, Gavranovic are not convincing since the Euro 2016 and most of the time you see Lichsteiner or Ricardo Rodriguez being scorer. In my opinion Switzerland will struggle alot, Serbia seems like a better team.
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Old 11-06-18, 08:26   #20
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Can you tell us more about that?
In my opinion Switzerland is nothing special, they play uncreative football and they probably had the easiest group in Qual campaign including the easiest opponent on play-off game and they still couldn't score more than 23 goals even thought having teams like Andorra, Faroe Island, Latvia in the group Qual.

I don't like their forwards either, in my opinion Seferovic, Drmic, Gavranovic are not convincing since the Euro 2016 and most of the time you see Lichsteiner or Ricardo Rodriguez being scorer. In my opinion Switzerland will struggle alot, Serbia seems like a better team.
I agree w. you on Switz strikers, but I think they are a more consistent and organized team than the other 2 contenders for the 2nd place (Brazil should easily win the 1st). They have a decent defense and it seems they can also score - Embolo & Shaquiri should cover the lack of productivity of their strikers (though Seferovic scored as a substitute vs. Japan). I watched Switzerland against Spain and although dominated, they had the power to come back for a draw. Also, they won 2-0 against Japan. At the same time I watched Serbia vs. both Chile (2nd team, although they seemed to work well as a unit - decent results) & Bolivia (awful team).
They were completely clueless vs Chile and Chile's counters were harming them a lot (I expect a trash in the game vs Brasil if Brasil will be interested to win it).
Vs. Bolivia they scored a lot but allowing such a bad team to score against you and reach a couple of more times near your goal is a concerning thing.
CR sucked against England's 2nd team, they were totally dominated, but I don't think they should be totally judged by that.

All in all I also think Serbia to bottom the group would be a decent bet at high odds (over 4/5)
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Old 11-06-18, 08:43   #21
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Yeah right. Serbia to finish last. Seriously? Maybe in Ante Pavelic's or Franjo Tudjman's dreams (if they were alive today)... Serbia have been coming together and things are starting to look like they are falling into place... Sure, they unnecessarily conceded a goal against Bolivia but by that time they were already 4-0 ahead and taking more risks... I think a bet on the group to end as follows at odds of 4.5 or above is a nice pick:

1. Brazil
2. Serbia
3. Switzerland
4. Costa Rica

Another group in which the final standings seem good to punt on is group A in which Uruguay towers above all others and Russia as hosts should qualify with Saudi finishing at the bottom. This bet can is offered at odds of about 3.
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Old 11-06-18, 08:48   #22
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well I think that this group, except Brasil,doesn t have big quality gap between other 3 teams.Switzerland and Serbia have couple of interesting players(2-3) and if you put pressure on them,than we could have underish game in most of the clashes.Krstajic made two improvments in NT-Start playing with 4 defenders in defensive line and called SMS in the squad.But now he did 1-2 steps back putting Stojkovic back on the goal line(Dmitrovic) looks as a better choice to me and he rotated in all lines which looks chaotic and results show that.I won t put a single bet in this group...
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Old 11-06-18, 15:04   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd View Post
Yeah right. Serbia to finish last. Seriously? Maybe in Ante Pavelic's or Franjo Tudjman's dreams (if they were alive today)... Serbia have been coming together and things are starting to look like they are falling into place... Sure, they unnecessarily conceded a goal against Bolivia but by that time they were already 4-0 ahead and taking more risks... I think a bet on the group to end as follows at odds of 4.5 or above is a nice pick:

1. Brazil
2. Serbia
3. Switzerland
4. Costa Rica

Another group in which the final standings seem good to punt on is group A in which Uruguay towers above all others and Russia as hosts should qualify with Saudi finishing at the bottom. This bet can is offered at odds of about 3.
do you wish to be banned as you are involving fascism and politics talk into football talks?
I watch all this teams and don't see Serbia at 2nd place at all. Brazil will won the group with all victories, Switzerland will be second as they much more organized in the back but also in the front and Costa Rica and Serbia will battle for 3rd place but I place Costa Rica in front because they are ultra defensive team and on counters they was fast and they may hurt any team (Brazil included). If Serbia play as a team and not as a bunch of stars they may achieve something but from what I see against Chile B and Bolivia C teams is hard to believe in it
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Old 11-06-18, 17:07   #24
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Originally Posted by Dex View Post
do you wish to be banned as you are involving fascism and politics talk into football talks?
I watch all this teams and don't see Serbia at 2nd place at all. Brazil will won the group with all victories, Switzerland will be second as they much more organized in the back but also in the front and Costa Rica and Serbia will battle for 3rd place but I place Costa Rica in front because they are ultra defensive team and on counters they was fast and they may hurt any team (Brazil included). If Serbia play as a team and not as a bunch of stars they may achieve something but from what I see against Chile B and Bolivia C teams is hard to believe in it
OK, fair point. They did look a little "disjointed" so far. I see signs of improvement but CR are certainly a well-oiled, if somewhat dated, machine... Switzerland are a mediocre side but they can be efficient... Brazil should nick the 9 points here. I certainly can't see anyone here beating them to 1st place.
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Old 11-06-18, 20:27   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd View Post
Yeah right. Serbia to finish last. Seriously? Maybe in Ante Pavelic's or Franjo Tudjman's dreams (if they were alive today)... Serbia have been coming together and things are starting to look like they are falling into place... Sure, they unnecessarily conceded a goal against Bolivia but by that time they were already 4-0 ahead and taking more risks... I think a bet on the group to end as follows at odds of 4.5 or above is a nice pick:

1. Brazil
2. Serbia
3. Switzerland
4. Costa Rica

Another group in which the final standings seem good to punt on is group A in which Uruguay towers above all others and Russia as hosts should qualify with Saudi finishing at the bottom. This bet can is offered at odds of about 3.
You surprised me with your comment, normally so calm and neutral.
I watch Costa Rica now and must agree that Serbia could well finish on the bottom. If they don`t take first match seriously and win, they are actually out.
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Old 11-06-18, 21:14   #26
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I counted up the past four WCs, and two things interest me. In 32 groups, 14 sides have advanced with four points, and 29 have ended group play with 1 or 0 points.

I***8217;m interested in 4 points because I thought to take Poland to win over 4.5, but am now second-guessing that thought. I***8217;ll have to check odds on ***8220;Poland to qualify***8221; instead.

The ***8220;under 1.5***8221; sure think is a great option in many of these groups. Looking at the 29, sure, there***8217;s a France, an England, but the vast majority are the sides you***8217;d expect. Costa Rica winning the group of death is the exception, not the rule.

Anyway, liking Japan, Saudi Arabia, Panama, Australia, South Korea and maybe Costa Rica for under 1.5. Will refine this later on.

Also like France under 7.5, Portugal under 5.5 and Morocco over 2.5.
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Last edited by allthethings; 11-06-18 at 21:44. Reason: Added S Korea under 1.5
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Old 11-06-18, 21:31   #27
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2 more special bets I placed yesterday:

1) Uruguay, Francia, Argentina, Brasil, Alemania, Bélgica, Inglaterra y Colombia - each to score at least 4 goals in the group stages @6.50 2/10

I think the only small risk here is with Uruguay due to likely under-ish group (though I expect them to score at least 2 vs Saudi Ar. - as the Saudis will have to play even more open
than they usually play (hoping/assuming they'll loose the 1st game against Rusia) and maybe Colombia (though I expect them to score a minimum 2 goals against Japan, they won a similar group 4 years ago scoring 9 goals). Uruguay scored 4 last WC, and the didn't have Suarez for most of the group matches and they had a way harder group (Italy, Costa Rica who were playing very defensively and England).
Also, at the last WC there was only one team among the ones that went to the next stages and scored less than 4 goals (Greece 2-4 in).

2) A combo @ 6,3 odds - 3/10 confidence - Following teams' scoring in group stages:

Especiales - Argentina -
> 4,5 Goles
1.61
Especiales - Brasil -
> 5,5 Goles
1.80
Especiales - Colombia
> 3,5 Goles
1.50
Especiales - Panamá
< 2,5 Goles
1.44

I must say I have a lot of faith in these 2 but I prefer not to place high level bets on "futures".
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Old 11-06-18, 22:08   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macot View Post
You surprised me with your comment, normally so calm and neutral.
I watch Costa Rica now and must agree that Serbia could well finish on the bottom. If they don`t take first match seriously and win, they are actually out.
I wasn't quite sure about Dex's motivation here and thought that the analysis was lacking a bit of meat (substance)... My feeling was that it could just be a dislike for the "neighbors" from Serbia - so a type of cognitive bias... But I was obviously wrong on that count - Dex is just not impressed with the Serbian team. And while they have some good individual players, teamwork and cohesion are certainly concerns that could come to haunt them...

Quote:
Anyway, liking Japan, Saudi Arabia, Panama, Australia, South Korea and maybe Costa Rica for under 1.5. Will refine this later on.
I've taken a bet on all of those teams plus Iran not to win a match... I think this is going to be a bad year for Asian teams in general. I really can't see any of them winning a group match right... And Panama are just a very weak team. 6 MLS-based players and the others from the local league - plus they are the oldest team on average. I expect them to be completely out of depth and for Belgium to blow them away in the first match. While ranking-wise they should be on a par with Tunisia, I think Tunisia are stronger so that Panama together with Saudi Arabia really are prime candidates for 0 points... Costa Rica were the suprise package a few years ago and have had very little turnover so that we get the same package but a little slower and more belabored than it was before. I don't think they will surprise again. But they could conceivably get something out of their games versus Serbia and Switzerland so I am going for them not to qualify... I will provide a more detailed write-up later on.
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Old 11-06-18, 22:39   #29
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One bet I have in mind is Argentina to receive over 1,5 goals in group stage (1.65). Reason is simple, all three teams Croatia, Nigeria and Iceland have potential to score against the favorite of the group. Last year Nigeria scored 4 against them and this month Spain scored 6(!!!). And considering their great players upfront, I don't think it will be a problem if they receive 1/2 goals per match as long as they score more.

Another interesting bet is Denmark to have over 3,5 points (1.75) and over 5,5 points (3.65) in group stage. The question is if they can win with Peru or at least get a draw. From what I saw recently, Denmark is a solid team with experienced players in every compartment. Imo Eriksen will make the difference in this match with Peru. As for South Americans, they are a good team, looking at their matches, the last defeat was in 2016 (!!) with Brasil. But remember that they qualified for the WC after beating NZ, so not such a big deal.
Denmark also has the advantage of playing France in last match when things may be clear about the winner of the group.
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Old 11-06-18, 22:48   #30
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Originally Posted by di canio View Post
One bet I have in mind is Argentina to receive over 1,5 goals in group stage (1.65). Reason is simple, all three teams Croatia, Nigeria and Iceland have potential to score against the favorite of the group. Last year Nigeria scored 4 against them and this month Spain scored 6(!!!). And considering their great players upfront, I don't think it will be a problem if they receive 1/2 goals per match as long as they score more.

Another interesting bet is Denmark to have over 3,5 points (1.75) and over 5,5 points (3.65) in group stage. The question is if they can win with Peru or at least get a draw. From what I saw recently, Denmark is a solid team with experienced players in every compartment. Imo Eriksen will make the difference in this match with Peru. As for South Americans, they are a good team, looking at their matches, the last defeat was in 2016 (!!) with Brasil. But remember that they qualified for the WC after beating NZ, so not such a big deal.
Denmark also has the advantage of playing France in last match when things may be clear about the winner of the group.
I agree about Argentina.

Regarding DK, I also agree but I think the more sensible option is just to take a punt on the straight forecast:

1. France
2. DK
3. Peru
4. Australia

This is being offered odds of above 3.
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