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Old 24-06-18, 07:19   #1
MarianoV6
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Default Group Qualification scenarios and last 16

Since today is the last games, lets put down all the scenarios for all groups and see what each team needs. It's important to notice in case of tie, at which game fair play criteria (yellow/red cards) is involved. Check also referee's thread cause it might be important to see who will whistle where.

Last edited by MarianoV6; 24-06-18 at 07:25.
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Old 24-06-18, 07:19   #2
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Default Group A

- Russia are through and will top the group if they avoid defeat vs. Uruguay.
- Uruguay are through but must beat hosts Russia to top the group.
- Egypt and Saudi Arabia have been eliminated.
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Old 24-06-18, 07:20   #3
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Default Group B

- Portugal need a point against Iran to qualify. Can qualify with a defeat if Spain lose by a bigger margin.
- Spain need a point against Morocco to qualify. Can qualify with a defeat if Portugal lose by a bigger margin, or if Iran/Portugal is a low-scoring draw and Spain lose by no more than one goal.
- If both Portugal and Spain lose the team with the worse result would finish third. If both Portugal and Spain win the team with the biggest victory would finish top. Spain and Portugal currently have identical records and are separated by disciplinary records (yellow/red cards). If this finishes level too they will draw lots for group position.
- Current yellow cards: Portugal 2, Spain 1
- Iran must beat Portugal to qualify, and could finish top if Spain lose.
- Morocco have been eliminated.
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Old 24-06-18, 07:20   #4
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Default Group C

- France have qualified and need a point against Denmark to top the group.
- Denmark need a point to qualify and will top the group with a win vs. France. They will also qualify with a defeat if Australia fail to beat Peru.
- Australia must beat Peru and hope Denmark lose, and top the Danes on goal difference.
- Peru have been eliminated.
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Old 24-06-18, 07:21   #5
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Default Group D

- Croatia have qualified and need a point vs. Iceland to top the group, though superior goal difference means they are almost certain of first place.
- Nigeria must beat Argentina to be guaranteed going through, though a point will be good enough if Iceland do not beat Croatia.
- Argentina have to beat Nigeria and hope Iceland do not win to definitely qualify. If both Argentina and Iceland win, then Argentina must do so by a greater margin as their goal difference is one worse than Iceland's. If the two teams finish with identical records, they drew with each other so are then separated by disciplinary records (yellow/red cards) and then drawing of lots for second place.
- Iceland must beat Croatia and hope Nigeria do not beat Argentina. If Nigeria draw then Iceland must win by at least two goals to match goal difference, and if records are identical Nigeria would then go through on head-to-head. If Argentina win then Iceland must do so by the same margin or greater to guarantee finishing second.
- Current yellow cards: Argentina 3, Iceland 0
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Old 24-06-18, 07:22   #6
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Default Group E

- Brazil need a point against Serbia to guarantee their place, and will also go through with a defeat if Switzerland also lose by the same margin or greater.
- Switzerland need a point against Costa Rica to secure their place but will also go through with a defeat if Serbia lose to Brazil. Should Switzerland lose by one goal and Serbia draw it will go to goals scored. If the teams finish with identical records then Switzerland would go through on head-to-head. If Switzerland are beaten by two goals they can qualify only if Serbia lose.
- If both Brazil and Switzerland win or lose they might need to be separated by disciplinary record or drawing of lots for top spot or second as the head-to-head is 1-1. This would happen, for instance, if Brazil won 2-1 and Switzerland won 2-0 for top spot, or for second position if Brazil lost 2-0 and Switzerland lost 1-0.
- Current yellow cards: Brazil 3, Switzerland 4
- Serbia will definitely qualify with a win, and could go through with a draw as noted.
- Costa Rica have been eliminated.
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Old 24-06-18, 07:22   #7
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Default Group F

- Mexico need a point vs. Sweden to go through and top the group. They are definitely through with a defeat if Germany fail to win.
- Sweden are guaranteed to qualify if they win or better Germany's result. If they beat Mexico and Germany fail to win, Sweden will top the group.
- Germany must win by two or more goals or better Sweden's result to guarantee qualifying.
- If both Germany and Sweden draw, the team in the higher-scoring game will finish second. If both draws are the same scoreline, Germany finish second on head to head.
- South Korea must beat Germany and hope Sweden lose to Mexico to have a chance of qualifying.

THREE-WAY TIE FOR FIRST AND SECOND
- If Sweden and Germany win they will finish level on six points with Mexico, and it will first come down to goal difference.
- Sweden are through in all scenarios. Germany are through in all but three scenarios, which means Mexico are most likely to be eliminated.
- If Sweden win by two or more goals they are through, with Germany guaranteed to qualify with any win (Mexico out)
- If Germany win by two or more goals they are through, with Sweden through with any win (Mexico out)
- If both Germany and Sweden win 1-0 the three teams would have identical records and it would go to head-to-head mini-league, and this would see Germany and Sweden through on goals scored (with Germany top on direct head to head with Sweden) and Mexico out.
- If both Germany and Sweden win 2-1 then Sweden would win the group on head to head goals scored. Mexico would be in second ahead of Germany in third on direct head to head
- If both Germany and Sweden win 3-2 (or any higher one-goal identical margin of victory) then Sweden would win the group with Mexico second and Germany third on head-to-head mini-league goals scored
- The only other way Mexico can go through, at the expense of Germany, if is both games are won by one goal, but Mexico's defeat against Sweden is a higher-scoring game.
- If Sweden win by one goal, and Germany win by one goal but in a high-scoring game, Germany win the group with Sweden in second and Mexico out

THREE-WAY TIE FOR SECOND
- If South Korea win and Sweden lose there will be a three-way tie for second on three points for Germany, Sweden and South Korea. It will first come down to goal difference.
- If South Korea beat Germany by two goals they are guaranteed to finish second
- If South Korea beat Germany 1-0 and Sweden lose 1-0 to Mexico, Germany would be second on direct head to head against Sweden with South Korea bottom
- If South Korea beat Germany by a higher-scoring one-goal margin than Sweden lose to Mexico, then South Korea would finish second on direct head to head against Germany with Sweden bottom
- If Sweden lose by more than one goal they cannot qualify, and South Korea would therefore finish second with any victory
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Old 24-06-18, 07:23   #8
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Default Group G

- England are through and are only guaranteed to top the group if they beat Belgium.
- Belgium are through and are only guaranteed to top the group if they beat England.
- England (2 yellows) currently lead Belgium (3 yellows) on Fair Play. If they draw the final group game first and second will be decided on this. If Fair Play also finishes level the teams will draw lots for positions.
- Panama and Tunisia have been eliminated

Last edited by MarianoV6; 24-06-18 at 16:05.
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Old 24-06-18, 07:24   #9
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Default Group H

- Japan need at least a point against Poland to qualify, and will definitely be through with a defeat if Colombia do not beat Japan. They will top the group if they better Senegal's result.
- Senegal need a point against Colombia to qualify, and can only qualify with a defeat if Japan lose too. They will top the group if they better Japan's result.
- Colombia must beat Senegal to go through. They cannot qualify with a draw as they would lose the head-to-head if level with Japan. They will top the group if they win and Japan do not.
- If both Japan and Senegal draw, both will be through and the team in the highest-scoring draw finishing top. If both draws are the same score, top spot will be decided first by Fair Play and then drawing of lots.
- If both Japan and Senegal win, both will be through and the team that wins by the biggest margin, or is in the highest-scoring win of the same margin, will finish top. If both wins are the same score, top spot will be decided first by Fair Play and then drawing of lots.
- If both Japan and Senegal lose then Colombia win the group. Second place will go to the team that loses by the smallest margin, or is in the lowest-scoring defeat of the same margin. If both defeats are the same score, second place will be decided first by Fair Play and then drawing of lots.
- Poland have been eliminated.

Last edited by MarianoV6; 24-06-18 at 22:03.
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Old 24-06-18, 07:49   #10
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Default Last 16

In general, teams from the same group who have finish first and second, will not meet again till final and of course third place game.

Teams will cross with the right next group. Example: First team group A will play against second team group B. First team group C will play second team group D. And so on till the last two groups (and vise versa, second team against first team of next group). The winners of these first two games (group A vs group B and group C vs group D) will play against each other. Hence, there is no way for example to see Russia play against Belgium till the semi finals.

It is likely that team or teams MAY choose their opponents (not just for the next round, but also for last 8 too!). For example: If Russia finish first, then they will face most likely one of Spain or Portugal, France, Argentina or Nigeria. If Russia finish second, then they will face one of Spain or Portugal, Croatia, Denmark. Same goes for Uruguay depending where they will finish. Avoiding Croatia is a smart thing i guess but it depends also on each team's gaming style.
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Old 24-06-18, 11:14   #11
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Great information from you buddy, on third round going to watch a many interesting and uncertain matches like: Australia, Argentina, Portugal, Serbia, Germany etc. Thank you
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Old 24-06-18, 12:53   #12
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I think Brazil and Serbia could settle for 2:2 or 3:3, and hope that Costa Rica beat Switzerland, there are friends among players, played in the same clubs.
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Old 24-06-18, 15:00   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nikko View Post
I think Brazil and Serbia could settle for 2:2 or 3:3, and hope that Costa Rica beat Switzerland, there are friends among players, played in the same clubs.
Do you think Brazil is a team that would go for a draw and "hope" from a team that couldn't score so far in two games? What kind of joke is this?
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Old 24-06-18, 15:05   #14
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Haha you're so naive, Brazil would surely like to avoid Germany in 1/8 finals, so draw is better result for them than a win They want to finish second, not first. And regarding hope, you didn't understand right of course...it's Serbia that have to hope for Costa Rica win, not Brazil, Brazil are totally fine with a draw against Serbia, no matter the result in the other match.
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Old 24-06-18, 16:03   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nikko View Post
Haha you're so naive, Brazil would surely like to avoid Germany in 1/8 finals, so draw is better result for them than a win They want to finish second, not first. And regarding hope, you didn't understand right of course...it's Serbia that have to hope for Costa Rica win, not Brazil, Brazil are totally fine with a draw against Serbia, no matter the result in the other match.
Yea like germans look like a scary team. And its not sure yet Germany would finish second, they can very well top the group with a Sweden win, ofc thats unlikely but i would say even more unlikely is a Costa Rica win against Switzerland. You played them,tell me they are that good to give you reasons to be optimistic? And i really doubt brasilians will settle for a draw.
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Old 24-06-18, 16:05   #16
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Group G has been updated
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Old 24-06-18, 16:43   #17
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We need to take into consideration the situation in group G.
England and Belgium both on 8-2 GD.

But regarding the situation in group H (Senegal - Japan - Colombia - Poland) I guess both Belgium and England probably won,`t bother if they finish 1st or 2nd so I don`t think we will see many reserves and we could also see a nice, scoring match after all..
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Old 24-06-18, 16:43   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sirac View Post
Yea like germans look like a scary team. And its not sure yet Germany would finish second, they can very well top the group with a Sweden win, ofc thats unlikely but i would say even more unlikely is a Costa Rica win against Switzerland. You played them,tell me they are that good to give you reasons to be optimistic? And i really doubt brasilians will settle for a draw.
If Costa Rica would play like with Brazil, and Switzerland the same as against Serbia, Costa Rica can win no doubt about it
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Old 24-06-18, 22:01   #19
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Btw, Mariano, I really appreciate reading your contribution during this World Cup. Keep this good work on, mate!
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Old 24-06-18, 22:04   #20
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Last group, group H, has been updated, it's all here now.

P.S.: Thanx Miccho! When the old guard is being called, then they will only answer to the call
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Old 24-06-18, 22:15   #21
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Criteria for qualification (since we don't have them anywhere)

1. Goal difference
2. Goals scored
3. Head-to-head points
4. Head-to-head goal difference
5. Head-to-head goals scored
6. Fair play points*
7. Drawing of lots

*Note: "Fair play" is being used for the first time in the history of WC and should be one more reason why we don't see many cards. So, for the last games, don't hope for many cards since they might judge who will qualify and who not. Of course at games where teams haven't qualify (Egypt v Saudi Arabia), we might see yellow cards. Same goes for games at which "fair play" wont play any role because goal difference matters first.

FAIR PLAY SCORING SYSTEM

Yellow card: -1
Red card for two cautions: -3
Straight red card: -4
Yellow card and straight red card: -5

Last edited by MarianoV6; 25-06-18 at 22:16.
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Old 25-06-18, 01:49   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MarianoV6 View Post
- Spain need a point against Morocco to qualify. Can qualify with a defeat if Portugal lose by a bigger margin, or if Iran/Portugal is a low-scoring draw and Spain lose by no more than one goal.
You seem to have left out the scenario that Spain will qualify with a defeat if Portugal win.
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Old 25-06-18, 08:58   #23
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Excellent stuff Mariano - greatly appreciated
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Old 25-06-18, 09:32   #24
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Very appreciated indeed!
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Old 25-06-18, 10:15   #25
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Have in mind that group F will play early matches(at 16:00), than after that we will know will Germany be first, second or eliminated (most unlikely) and of course Mexico can be out of the tournament if Sweden beats them 2:0, or every defeat can put Germany on first place, I expect from Germany to score at least 3 goals against S.Korea(as they are out). The problem is that Mexico conceded goal in last minute, which can give them a trouble but again it is early to talk about it.

After this we will have group E, and it will be interesting to see will Brazil wants to go on Germany or will try to avoid it ??!!
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Old 25-06-18, 13:09   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zegol View Post
You seem to have left out the scenario that Spain will qualify with a defeat if Portugal win.
yes, correct zegol, thanx! I must have took it as very obvious in my mind after doing so many calculations and i skipped it lol
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Old 25-06-18, 13:45   #27
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Belgium v England will be tricky as the better team of the pair will most likely find themselves on such a track:
G1 v H2 (SEN/COL) then E1/F2 BRA/GER while the worse team might face:
G2v H1 (Japan) then F1/E2 Mex/Sui...
on one hand there is no point dying on the pitch but somehow both BEL/ENG kept on firing during 2nd game.
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Old 25-06-18, 17:05   #28
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Default CRO-ICE

Really?

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Old 25-06-18, 22:22   #29
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Default Missing players from round of 16 due to cards

I have added at post #21 how the fair play system works regarding points
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