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Old 24-06-18, 15:30   #1
Wilson
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Default Group B - Third Round 25.06. 20:00 Iran - Portugal

5.86 3.59 1.70
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Old 24-06-18, 22:17   #2
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Is there any chance for BTS?
I do not expect these two to run at each other but Iran have to go for a win here if they want to go through.
And Portugal have Ronaldo who will be stimulated by Kane's goals.
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Old 25-06-18, 11:04   #3
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Portugal will win in this match, Ronaldo going to score twice... possible result 0-2, 1-2.
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Old 25-06-18, 11:38   #4
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Portugal is nothing special imo. They depend on Ronaldo. Against Spain they were lucky as Ronaldo scored his first goal from free-kick for 50th time of tries (!!!). The other goals were from two pathetic errors.

Against Marocco they could have shown their strength but instead of they were outplayed by them. They could thank MCOs pathetic finishing to keep the 3 point.

After the first match against MCO I wouldn't have put a single penny on Iran. But what they did against Spain after they got a goal, I take a bow. They scored from off-side, celebrated like they won the WC. It couldnt break their enthusiasm and were near to score.

If there wasnt Ronaldo I would go for Iran to qualify to 1/8...but we know his skills, he is confident now, in-form, can decide any match.

Although there is Ronaldo, Iran +0.75 AH is pure value to me as draw it also good for Portugal. I also see a chance to BTTS.

Last edited by progress; 25-06-18 at 11:40.
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Old 25-06-18, 12:13   #5
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its nice to see the forum retaining the good members with quality one sentence insights (claps slowly)

i am very excited about this game so i will share my views. iran have always striked me as a defensive minded team that can only do that, however, in these past 2 games i noticed something else - they are simply well aware of their own ability. against morocco in the opener their opponent was pushing hard and they knew they cant take many risks if they want to win, rather focus on specific types of attacks - use width and run towards goal taking advantage of their physical strength rather than pace or techique. there werent many attacks like that but they took their chance late and won. against spain it was obvious they had to defend.. but they still had decent attacks. this time the idea was slightly different - use width to send quick crosses in since they were aware pique and ramos are physically strong and it will be hard to win 1 on 1 hence they tried to outsmart them with crosses. for me this shows not only they do their research but also know the extent of their own ability.

portugal sort of the same - they know the extent of ronaldo's ability lol. but you can see that the rest cant raise their game to a level close to his, especially guedes. guedes and bernardo silva find it hard to synchronize with cr7. so far these two have failed to take responsibility and have shifted it to ronaldo and he has delivered but that is the problem, portugal at the moment is 1 man team. the midfield is alright but you can clearly see the separation between the lines. for example midfielders dont drop deep in defense but dont go too high up the field while the attackers sometimes drop deeper but not to the level of the midfielders. basically, its a rigid formation and since players from different lines dont mix (well, aside from the wing backs) there are spaces between these lines which can be exploited. say a pass is played between offense and midfield.. if it connects it could easily leave both the attackers and the midfield in the dust and run at the defense. the defense is relatively slow but experienced

in conclusion i dont think portugal will leave any spaces as they only need a draw. they will play their usual guedes up front, ronaldo free role and bernardo on the right trying to provide unpredictability. iran will try to take advantage of any spaces between the lines and occasionally send quick crosses in. i doubt the tempo would be high as iran should be well aware of the threat ronaldo is while 0-0 works for portugal. clearly there is no reason to rush, however, the europeans should be able to play freely and its possible they'd hit iran on the break. but its not like they will use every opportunity to counter, that would be too idealistic, its way more likely they'd go only for ones they have clear advantage in which would be somewhere between 2 and 4 (my estimation, based on feeling) and the rest would be slow buildup with the intention of running down the clock. iran will play with only 1 thing in mind - win 1-0, however, if they concede early things will change and there would be no reason to hold back. then we can expect a higher tempo and more goals, possibly in both nets. lots of ifs though and the likeliest scenario is a tight game and 1 or 2 goals or.. 0.

i find this game very interesting because iran's game is simple and on point, they dont rely on anything unexpected. portugal has ronaldo and advantage in points. the approach these two should take is to be cautious resulting in a slow tempo but that is until the 1st goal. after that it should be very entertaining for the neutral fans the question is when and if there will be a 1st goal. portugal tends to push early on like against morocco and then fall back. iran are solid in defense but they gotta think about scoring as well, unlike in the previous 2 games, and a mistake could happen (morocco was in the same situation against portugal and couldnt organize well in one set piece situation ad conceded). again, i make a lot of assumptions here but the probability of these scenarios isnt 0 hard to pick a bet but i think the draw is worth a shot and maybe iran +0.5 if ronaldo doesnt have a day. other than that i'd say wait for the 1st goal and then take the over
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Old 25-06-18, 12:29   #6
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This is for Spain v Morocco also

Mind also that what separates Portugal from Spain at the moment is the "Fair play" criteria. I rate Iran as a more aggressive opponent than Morocco when it comes to marking, and this might lead to some Portugal player getting pissed and get booked at some point. Spain has more "dirty" players like Diego Costa or Ramos who can do the opposite, piss their opponent. I think Portugal is not like that.

My point is that maybe both Spain and Portugal win 1-0 but who will have the advance when cards come out (and IF cause i have explained that)? If anyone is interesting about finishing in a specific position, first or second, they will have ears on the other game as well, and things may change during live game
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Old 25-06-18, 12:37   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by f1ght3r View Post
its nice to see the forum retaining the good members with quality one sentence insights (claps slowly)

i am very excited about this game so i will share my views. iran have always striked me as a defensive minded team that can only do that, however, in these past 2 games i noticed something else - they are simply well aware of their own ability. against morocco in the opener their opponent was pushing hard and they knew they cant take many risks if they want to win, rather focus on specific types of attacks - use width and run towards goal taking advantage of their physical strength rather than pace or techique. there werent many attacks like that but they took their chance late and won. against spain it was obvious they had to defend.. but they still had decent attacks. this time the idea was slightly different - use width to send quick crosses in since they were aware pique and ramos are physically strong and it will be hard to win 1 on 1 hence they tried to outsmart them with crosses. for me this shows not only they do their research but also know the extent of their own ability.

portugal sort of the same - they know the extent of ronaldo's ability lol. but you can see that the rest cant raise their game to a level close to his, especially guedes. guedes and bernardo silva find it hard to synchronize with cr7. so far these two have failed to take responsibility and have shifted it to ronaldo and he has delivered but that is the problem, portugal at the moment is 1 man team. the midfield is alright but you can clearly see the separation between the lines. for example midfielders dont drop deep in defense but dont go too high up the field while the attackers sometimes drop deeper but not to the level of the midfielders. basically, its a rigid formation and since players from different lines dont mix (well, aside from the wing backs) there are spaces between these lines which can be exploited. say a pass is played between offense and midfield.. if it connects it could easily leave both the attackers and the midfield in the dust and run at the defense. the defense is relatively slow but experienced

in conclusion i dont think portugal will leave any spaces as they only need a draw. they will play their usual guedes up front, ronaldo free role and bernardo on the right trying to provide unpredictability. iran will try to take advantage of any spaces between the lines and occasionally send quick crosses in. i doubt the tempo would be high as iran should be well aware of the threat ronaldo is while 0-0 works for portugal. clearly there is no reason to rush, however, the europeans should be able to play freely and its possible they'd hit iran on the break. but its not like they will use every opportunity to counter, that would be too idealistic, its way more likely they'd go only for ones they have clear advantage in which would be somewhere between 2 and 4 (my estimation, based on feeling) and the rest would be slow buildup with the intention of running down the clock. iran will play with only 1 thing in mind - win 1-0, however, if they concede early things will change and there would be no reason to hold back. then we can expect a higher tempo and more goals, possibly in both nets. lots of ifs though and the likeliest scenario is a tight game and 1 or 2 goals or.. 0.

i find this game very interesting because iran's game is simple and on point, they dont rely on anything unexpected. portugal has ronaldo and advantage in points. the approach these two should take is to be cautious resulting in a slow tempo but that is until the 1st goal. after that it should be very entertaining for the neutral fans the question is when and if there will be a 1st goal. portugal tends to push early on like against morocco and then fall back. iran are solid in defense but they gotta think about scoring as well, unlike in the previous 2 games, and a mistake could happen (morocco was in the same situation against portugal and couldnt organize well in one set piece situation ad conceded). again, i make a lot of assumptions here but the probability of these scenarios isnt 0 hard to pick a bet but i think the draw is worth a shot and maybe iran +0.5 if ronaldo doesnt have a day. other than that i'd say wait for the 1st goal and then take the over
Good post, but I don't agree about the over. 1st goal will change nothing. You will still have one team doing nothing but defending with 11 men for that 1-0 lead, like we have seen so many times already at this world cup.
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Old 25-06-18, 12:49   #8
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Quote:
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Good post, but I don't agree about the over. 1st goal will change nothing. You will still have one team doing nothing but defending with 11 men for that 1-0 lead, like we have seen so many times already at this world cup.
you are right. i didnt pick my words carefully enough. what i meant was that a goal would be an implication for higher tempo and higher tempo could lead to mistakes -> goals. its a whole other question whether the team trailing would be able to score or if the leading team would hit them on the break. in my opinion if portugal take the lead then they'd think about the 1st place and try to score 1-2 more on the break. if iran score first then for sure it would be as you explained 11 men behind the ball trying to keep the score.

i think the 3rd round is nothing like the rest as teams have a clear goal to aim for. iran played defensively because it suited them but that might not be the case tonight, depending on how things turn out. other teams are in similar situation.

there's also this VAR and a considerable amount of added time. we've barely seen any game with less than 4 minutes of added time to the 2nd half and quite a few with 2 mins or more added at the end of the 1st. suddenly time wasting isnt as big of a factor as in the past.
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Old 25-06-18, 13:40   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Palini View Post
Good post, but I don't agree about the over. 1st goal will change nothing. You will still have one team doing nothing but defending with 11 men for that 1-0 lead, like we have seen so many times already at this world cup.
Exactly! The same situation in the previous game. Portugal took early lead, which would kick Morocco out of the tournament. Moroccans actually played very open football, but on the other end, Portugal did not have a single good counter-attack play. Not a single dangerous break.
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