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Old 23-06-18, 23:12   #1
the_machine30
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Default **WC POD 24/06/2018**

Here are main rules, you will find others here:

http://forum.bettingadvice.com/showthread.php?t=110009

Prize booty will be a bit higher than for regular POD, 1st place will be awarded with 150 EUR, second place with 100 EUR and third place will bring 50 EUR!

Here are the rules:

The Competition

The purpose of the competition is to gather the best bets of a particular day of WC 2018. It's for fun but the competition can also be a good place for tipsters to find picks quicker than browsing all pages. You can place your Pick of the day and score points if it satisfies the conditions that are stated below. The competition lasts one month and in that period, a contestant must make exactly 8 picks. YOU CAN ENTER THE COMPETITION UNTIL IT IS POSSIBLE TO PICK EIGHT PODs. This means entering the competition with only 7 days of the WC left to go is not possible. Every missing pick below 8 at the end of the month will be punished with -100 points per missing pick.
You must be a registered user of this forum to participate. You must have a unique IP address, not more than one competitor can use the same address.
Odds must be between 1.50 and 3.50 and only odds taken from these 3 bookmakers are allowed:

Bet365
Pinnacle
SBOBet

You must write arguments for your pick or at least give a link to a prediction on BA main page, written by yourself.

About the conditions

You can only make one pick per day. Your pick must be different to all other placed picks, but you can back another team/player in the same game that someone else has taken. For your pick to count, it must be posted at least 1 hour before the event starts.

You cannot back the same team/player as someone else even if you take a different bet type (for example handicap bet, different game total etc.). But this rule applies only for quarterfinals/semifinals/finals of the WC!!! In the group phase of WC and in 1/8 finals you can take picks that were already taken by other users!!!

You can take these bet types (but only inside allowed odds from 1,50 to 3,50!):

-Asian handicap bets (final or HT)
-European handicap bets (final or HT)
-Over/Under bets (Game total) (final or HT)
-Home/Draw/Away bets (final or HT)
-Double Chance (1X,12,X2)
-Both teams to score (Yes/No)
-Half time/Full time
-Player to score (anytime scorer, first scorer)
-Number of corners (final or HT)
-Number of cards
-First team to score (Yes/No)
-Second team to score (Yes/No)
-number of goals scored team 1/team 2

You must write the correct bookie and correct odds in the time of your posting.

Scoring

A pick that was wrong will cost you 100 points. When you've made a correct pick, and it satisfied the conditions, you will gain 100 (Odds-1) points. For example, a successful pick @ 1.85 will give you 85 points. This is the net profit if you had staked 100 units. Asian Handicaps will be calculated accoringly to the net profit. It is not allowed to pick odds below 1,50 and above 3,50.
The contestant that scores the highest number of points with 8 picks, will win the monthly competition. In case he fails to give 8 picks, 100p- for every missing pick- will be deducted from his score.
To win the Special WC POD you MUST make 8 bets! Hopefully we will have time to update the standings every day but there may be some delays from time to time.

Good luck to all!!!!!
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Old 23-06-18, 23:20   #2
the_machine30
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Pick # 6 (2-0-3) +105

Poland - Colombia
Pick: over 3.5 goals
Odds: 3.50
Bookie: bet365

I'm taking this bet so early, because the odds are dropping very fast. Both teams need of three points from this match, because they started this world cup with a loss. Colombia suffered big loss from outside Japan, but their player was sent off in 5th minuted. Colombia have very strong offense Falcao, Bacca, James Rodriguez and Quadrado are really great players and I expect they will be very well motivated to score few goals today. Colombia recorded two overs 3.5 goals in their last five matches.
On the other hand Poland have Lewandovski and he can score few goals no matter what defense he should play against. Poland also need of three points if they want to make the round of 16. Poland have recorded three overs 3.5 goals in their last four matches.
I expect at least four goals here.
0-3 Pick lost!

Last edited by Macot; 25-06-18 at 19:37.
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Old 24-06-18, 01:17   #3
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Pick 4 1W/2L -42
Poland-Colombia
Pick: Colombia with AH-0.5
Odd:2.33
Pinnacle

Polish center is in Sochi where temperature and humidity is very high so regeneration and training conditions are very hard. Additionally to that physical preparation is propably bad. In Polish squad there are many players without form or after long injuries. In first match there wasn't speed, idea but were many mistakes.
Colombia played almost whole match against Japan in weakness after red card but at least in first half they played really good. For me Colombia is greater favourite than odd suggesting.
0-3 Pick won!

Last edited by Macot; 25-06-18 at 19:37.
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Old 24-06-18, 08:37   #4
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pick #5 +2

England - Panama
England -2 Asian Handicap
ODds: 2.56 pinnacle

Three Lions are unbeaten in last 11 official games plus 4 friendly games just before WC. They beaten much better teams than Panama at friendly Nigeria , Netherlands, Costa Rica. It was maybe unfortunate to get victory over Tunusia at the last minute. Their pace was great at the first half that gives me confidence prior to this game. It is almost first year that no England fans dream further than Semi-Final. In reality, i think their youth energy makes me feel at least QF.

I have written also in Belgium meeting that Panama is the oldest and inexperinced squad at World Cup. They showed resistance to Belgium at first half. However, Belgium hasn't started game how England started vs Tunusia. I think England will take a lot corners at first half to create pressure.
6-1 Pick won!

Last edited by Macot; 25-06-18 at 19:37.
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Old 24-06-18, 09:10   #5
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Pick # 2

Japan - Senegal

Pick : 2
Odds : 2.31
Sbobet

Japan meet Senegal at this game from World cup 2018 (Russia).
The winners of the first round in this Grp since 2:1 over Colombia and Poland.
For sure more aplauds for the team on Senegal shown a really dangerous attack and confidence tactic in these important games.
Japan won 2:1, but is always doubtful how the game will proceed if the team wasnt with red card advantage against Colombia and penalty in the first minutes.
I think Senegal if continued the same solid performance of the game with Polish nationals easy can beat and Japan today....
2-2 pick lost!

Last edited by Macot; 25-06-18 at 19:38.
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Old 24-06-18, 10:13   #6
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Pick no 2: 1 -0-0 +120
Japan - Senegal
Pick: Senegal
Odds: 2.41
Bookie: Pinnacle

This game became the derby of the group after both won in opening game with same score 2-1.
Japan won versus Columbia but they played almost entire game with 11 vs 10 players, Colombian Sanchez saw red after only 3 mins of play. Hard to say which will have been the score if 11 vs 11 but in these conditions Japan dominated the game and won deservedly. Maybe this win boosted their morale but once again don't forget about circumstances. Honda is injured for this game.
On the other side Senegal proved to be an athletic team with lot of physical players ad lot of discipline in game. They took advantage of 2 silly defensive mistakes made by Polish players and scored twice ( an owngoal) to secure a nice win 2-1 versus one of the best team in the group. Now depends on them to clinch another win and to secure a further qualification in this competition. With a steady defense, don't forget they kept striker Lewandowsky isolate almost all game and a vivace midfielders I see Senegal as one of the pleasant surprise from this tournament.
With no squad problems I think Senegal can snatch another win here so back them to collect all points and to go further in the competition. gl
2-2 Pick lost!

Last edited by Macot; 25-06-18 at 19:38.
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Old 24-06-18, 10:58   #7
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Pick #2
0-1-0

England v Panama
Total Bookings over 3.25 odds: 2.02 @ Pinnacle


Panama is one of the weakest teams in WC. They also have some of oldest and slowest players and that creates a lot of troubles for them. In their first game against Belgium(0:3) they received 5 yellow cards, as they couldn't cope with Belgium players speed and skill, so they had to foul a lot to stop their actions. Now Panama faces England, team that also have quick and skilled players up front. If England plays anything similar like in first minutes against Tunisia, where they were running and pressing, Panama players won't be able to keep up with that pace and will have to foul. If Panama loses they are out and they might also become frustrated and lose their heads.

Referee of this game is Egyptian Gehad Grisha. His stats: https://us.soccerway.com/referees/ghead-grisha/211179/ As you can see he is not a crazy strict referee, but rarely gives less then 3-4 cards a game.
4 yellow cards!

Last edited by Macot; 25-06-18 at 19:38.
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Old 24-06-18, 11:11   #8
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Pick #1
Poland - Columbia
Pick: Poland [1x2]
Odds: 3.37 @ Pinnacle

Both teams lost their first matches in a very bad style. Poland failed completely against Senegal and after several defensive mistakes lost 1:2. Columbia on the other side lost a player after a red card and wasn't able to compete against well organized Japan. Which team will bounce back better today. I think Poland. Columbia as many times in history have big problems in dealing with additional pressure when playing on big tournaments. Do You remember 1994 World Cup. They were favourite in their group but were eliminated just after 3 matches. Now situation is very similiar. Many talents in the squad, loss in first match and big pressure on them. Poland on the other side are in situation which is quite typical in their history of country and this team too. After failing in first situation (for example only draw against Kazakhstan in first qualifying match despite early 2:0 lead) they will have to focus and show their potential. With some tactic and squad changes in their squad I think Nawalka will prepaire his boys for Columbia properly and win today. Odds are very tempting as to be honest it's a match in which everything can happen and favouring any of side is really not a good idea so odds on Poland are nice value.
0-3 Pick lost!

Last edited by Macot; 25-06-18 at 19:39.
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Old 24-06-18, 12:23   #9
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Pick #3 (1W-0V-1L) (+20)

Event: World Cup 2018 Russia
Match: Poland - Colombia
Pick: Over 2,5
Odds: 2.11
Bookmaker: Sbobet


Both of these two teams were favorites and both failed to deliver so now will have to do it on a lot harder way, with more pressure with every mistake made will be costly. Poland have defensive issue since Glik's injury and it was obvious even though Senegalese didn't press much, still i think that Pazdan is one big hole and that Colombia will try to exploit exactly that spot. With very skillful Falcao i expect at least goal from him to wake up his team. Poland had ball in their feet but didn't manage to exploit though Senegalese defense so i think that they will rethink about their tactics and creating more chances to Lewa. With both teams in need for a three points with unstable defenses and world class strikers i expect goals in both nets tonight.
0-3 Pick won!

Last edited by Macot; 25-06-18 at 19:39.
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Old 24-06-18, 14:30   #10
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Pick 5

1-0-3 -113

Poland - Colombia

Pick: Over 11.5 corners
Odds: 3.40 @ bet365

Starting with much higher expectations in the first round, both teams lost their initial matches. Poland against Senegal and even more surprising Colombia lost against Japan making this group maybe the most unpredictable group in the World Cup. I think that we can expect a lot of corners in this game because both teams have very dangerous attackers, they reach easily the goal and this will lead to a lot of corners produced. This is all or nothing game for both teams, whoever loses the game goes home and i think that we will see fierce game play in attack with a lot of chances and of course many corners as a result from this.
7-5 Pick won!

Last edited by Macot; 25-06-18 at 19:39.
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Old 24-06-18, 15:00   #11
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Pick no 4(100% loosing score all picks terribly lost so far ;-) )
Japan - Senegal
Pick: over 2,5 goals
Odds: 2.43
Bookie: Pinnacle

this is for the lead in the group
as you know both teams won their first match with 2-1
i found it suprising that japan won 2-1 against colombia although you have to keep in mind that almost whole game japan played with against ten men
nevertheless japan showed some skill and deservedly won(1-1 out of free kick from colombia wasnt a free kick at all)
Senegal also played a solid game with beautiful goals and attacking.also a well deserved win.....
so we have here 2 teams who will play full on attack for the group win...even if they want to go for a draw these teams can not do it i see at least 3 goals here and 2,43 odds for above 2,5 goals is a bargain
i predict a 2-2 draw and too bad i will loose my 100% loosing record here ;-)
2-2 pick won, you see it works!!!

Last edited by Macot; 25-06-18 at 19:40.
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Old 24-06-18, 15:22   #12
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#3
1/0/1 +8

Poland - Colombia

Pick: over 2,5 goals@2.40 Pinnacle

Poland showed terrible form against Senegal. Two bizzare goals conceded, playing without speed and creativity. Colombia disappointed their fans having lost to Japan.Now both sides are desperate and a lot of changes in rosters are expected. The bet on goals should come in as Colombia and Poland have leaky central defense. Especially Poland without Glik can***8217;t be trusted. He could return today, but even with him Poland allowed a lot of chances. Colombia make many defensive mistakes too. They have Zapata who isn***8217;t on big form, other players are average at the back. Loss of Carlos Sanchez is another blow in midfield who can be exploited by Poles. So both teams are going to find their luck in offense. James probably will start from the begining which is massive boost for Colombia. If Poland find their legs, they can score one or two as well just like Japan did.
0-3 Pick won!

Last edited by Macot; 25-06-18 at 19:40.
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Old 24-06-18, 18:14   #13
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Pick 3 (0-0-2) -200
Poland vs Colombia
Pick: 1 (-0.5AH)
Odds: 3.30
Bookie: bet365

Group H. So, Poland were very miserable against Senegal. True, Senegal is a very strong team and they may be the best team coming from Africa. Anyway, I was expecting a completely different scenario. I expected much more from Poland, however, they showed very little in the first game. In any case, they will try to pick up all three points in this game. They have the potential, they have quality, however, they have not shown their organization in the match against Senegal. Who knows, they may not be able to make anything more in their group. At this point, we have a score in 1st Half Japan vs Senegal (1 -1). They would love to win anyone in that match.
On the other hand, Colombia is a solid team. However, C. Sanchez earned a red card. So, they will be without him. Also, Cuadrado is doubtful. Falcao will try to make a positive result. In any case, they will try to dominate the middle of the field. They will definitely give strong resistance. They also have chances in a group of stages.
All in all, I expect the Poland to wake up, and they will start from the first minutes to win. That's why I expect the win for Poland, and I finally believe that this will happen.
GL!
0-3 Pick lost!

Last edited by Macot; 25-06-18 at 19:40.
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Old 24-06-18, 18:14   #14
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Pick#2 -100

Poland - Colombia

Pick: over2.5
Odds: 2.47
Bookie: Pinnacle

Odds are rising big time for goals since morning, but I can't find a reason why. Unless some big surprises will occur in standings line-ups, some important injury or so, don't know, but beside that I agree with the guys above who picked goals here. Yeah, it's vital game for both, maybe we could expect slow, cautious game, but I kinda hardly believe this will happen. Offensively both are just too gifted , while, let's say, Poland are really shaky at the back, I don't believe they will rely on defense to get needed result. Senegal exposed them, in qualies or friendlies before WC they looked far from good in defense. Colombia couldn't show their full potential in opening game, but they has all it takes to score against this Poland. At first I thought to back them, but on other hand when you have world class striker like Lewandowski on your team, some fine creativity behind/near him, you can always expect to net a goal atleast. Tbh, Colombia also aren't that great at defending own net, especially when facing offensively minded rivals with some class there. All in all, if my thoughts are right, we might see different scenario than bookies expecting and atleast 3 goals. GL
0-3 pick won!

Last edited by Macot; 25-06-18 at 19:41.
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Old 24-06-18, 18:57   #15
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Pick no. 3
1 0 1 +50
Poland - Colombia
Pick: Over 3.0
Odds: 3.30 - bet365


Worst thing happened for both Poland and Colombia because Japan and Senegal played a 2:2 draw and they both beat Poland and Colombia, now Senegal and Japan have both 4 points and Colombia and Poland are on 0 points. Even if anyone wins here they will get 3 points and still not be 2nd. Both teams will try and win this game now after what happened in that last group. Colombia were especially disappointing against Japan and Poland have Lewandowski that was litearlly invisible in game against Senegal. I don't see Lew being so bad for 2 games in a row and Munich's attacker should get goals. Colombia have great players in attack and they must go for points.
0-3 Pick void!

Last edited by Macot; 25-06-18 at 19:41.
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