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Old 06-04-04, 21:22   #1
grefstad
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Default Solving the staking problem

As you may or may not know, there have been continious discussions about the staking methods here at BEttingadvice.

Some believe a 10/10 should express maximum belief in a match result. Some belive a 10/10 should be allowed when there is extreme value on a bet, etc.


Maybe it is time to develop fixed rules for the staking, so that it can not be misunderstood by readers?

I have received a good suggestion from Moneymaker, who runs www.nbatip.com

Read it, and discuss!!!


------------------

Some basic criterias for "handicap" picks:

* If the pick is so called "handicapper" (winner is chosen for OVER/UNDER or pointspread) stake is calculated as follows:

stake 1-3 - winning confidence by NbaTip 55-65%
stake 4-6 - winning confidence by NbaTip 66-75%
stake 7-8 - winning confidence by NbaTip 76-85%
stake 9 - winning confidence by NbaTip 86-95%
stake 10 - winning confidence by NbaTip 96-99%

Criterias for "straight line" picks:

* If the pick is "straight liner" (also often heard as "money line" pick), itīs always a value pick from NbaTip`s point of view. The stake is calculated as follows:

stake = probability point * line offered by bookie / fair line by NbaTip`s point of view

where probability point is:

1 if winning probability by NbaTip is 1-10%
2 if winning probability by NbaTip is 11-20%
3 if winning probability by NbaTip is 21-30%
4 if winning probability by NbaTip is 31-43%
5 if winning probability by NbaTip is 44-57%
6 if winning probability by NbaTip is 58-70%
7 if winning probability by NbaTip is 71-80%
8 if winning probability by NbaTip is 81-87%
9 if winning probability by NbaTip is 88-94%
10 if winning probability by NbaTip is 95-99%

For Example:

1. If bookie offers 1.50 for Lakers against Rockets and NbaTip thinks line for Lakers should be 1.35 and probability that Lakers will win this game is 75% the stake is calculated: 7 * 1.50 / 1.35 = 7,77 ~ 8. Stake for this game is 8.

2. If bookie offers 7.5 for Denver against San Antonio and NbaTip thinks itīs 25% that Denver could win and line should be @ 4 stake is: 3* 7.5 / 4 5.625 ~ 6. Stake for this game is 6.


Comments?
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Old 06-04-04, 21:52   #2
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Personally I only use 10/10 when I see either value and solid probability, or when I just plainly see a very high probability. For pure value bets I often use 7-9 if the price is off base.

But since Moneymaker's staking plan both take into consideration the price on offer compared to what it should be (value aspect) and the rated probability for the tipster's valuation of the possible result to come in I am fully in favour of something like this.

That only leave me with one big problem - I have to figure out how to rate the winning percentage probability as well as determining what the correct price should be :?

Anyway, we do need to adress the inflated use of high stakes that seem to be around for no other apparent reason then to quickly climb in standing - and for that matter to get a decent pay-out quickly from the bookies.
About this way of thinking amongst punters I wish to recall the old credo of poker: "It's a tough way to make an easy living".
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Old 06-04-04, 21:58   #3
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well ok some make sense...but..its different for everybody....

and my main point..HOW U GONNA STOP TIPSTERS WITH THIS? :?:

..i mean..if he decides he is gona put 8/10 he is gona put it....u will say..nah its a 70% chance of win..but he will say no..i think its 90%..see my point?

IMO the first rule should be..no more than 10 units on bet.

tough thing i know..well i hope we come up with good solution.
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Old 06-04-04, 23:17   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Per
That only leave me with one big problem - I have to figure out how to rate the winning percentage probability as well as determining what the correct price should be :?
Its the same calculation for both your problems.

I also think this is a good idea. And its very similar to what I do with my own bets. Personally I stake depending on the value factor;

eks. prob 33%, odds 4 makes 1,32 and a pretty high stake.

prob 10% and odds 25 makes 2,50 and would teoretically be a sky high stake, but because low probabillity and long time between each correct bet, I stake less.

As usual a very good solution from MM, I hope this will be BAs policy also.
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Old 06-04-04, 23:35   #5
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1. I agree with Mistro - main thing is not allowing more then 10 units on same match.

2. Tipsters to be obligated to write some explanation for their stakes, no matter if it is 3/10 or 10/10. From that we will see if that 10/10 means 1) maximizing profit because of big value (meaning risky bet); or 2) high probability for winning bet (meaning "sure" bet); or 3) flat staking system (meaning strategy); or 4) something else
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Old 07-04-04, 00:20   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lyd
1. I agree with Mistro - main thing is not allowing more then 10 units on same match.
:?

You should say "same bet". At least I think it is big difference between 1x2
halftime/fultime
over/under
goalscoring bet
specials, bookings etc

If there is much value in more bets in one game, it would be very unlogical not to bet on it...
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Old 07-04-04, 00:47   #7
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That is too much calculation for a simple folk. :wink:

There is another option.

using an additional confidence value besides stakes...

like stars ***** for ex. strongly belive
it would give a more deeper picture about picks reasons at first sight.

this way the staking problem would ease up as sometimes 4/10 could be a pretty good bet from a tipster who plays it safe but staking low...
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Old 11-11-04, 01:35   #8
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Hm call me stupid,
but why any different stakes?

I take the bet or I do not take it.
If you are not convinced by the bet --- leave it.

For the long run you can simply calculate : You performence in total will be showing the performence of your high (8,9,10/10) stakes.
Point.
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Old 29-11-04, 01:53   #9
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This seems like a very good idea for deciding what to stake. Since I am fairly new to the only betting world, I do have a bit of a hard time deciding how much to bet on different games. I found this post to be very useful.. Nice post Terje, and I guess I should give the respect to MoneyMaker, as he was the creator of this on nba.tip
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Old 03-12-08, 15:05   #10
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Just to give my views here ( del if you think i am talking rubbish),

For me, flat stakings is the way to go. I believe i have seen enough guys, flat staking bring more money in long run. Comparing to varied staking , using flat, it is easier to differentiate who is better tipster.

Flat staking can be 3/10, or 4/10. But always 3/10 or 4/10 for all bets.
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Old 11-02-09, 01:54   #11
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Talking

Here is one to try to solve:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCJ3O...sage724615/pg1
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Old 24-07-12, 14:36   #12
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I have small, medium and large.

1 unit, 2 units and 4 units.

1 unit is for a purely value bet, 2 units is for a standard bet I'm confident on and 4 units is for a NAP wherein I'll at least make a refund or I'm as close to certain as possible.
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