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Old 31-08-11, 22:11   #31
Cycling_Tipster
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Vuelta Stage 12

Sagan > Kittel @2.55 Sportingbet 3.6/5 -> I think the false flat under the red flame is used Kittel
Van Avaermaet > Lighart @1.85 Bet24 3/5 -> A perfect stage fot the Belgium rider!
Haussler > Martens @1.65 Pinnacle 3/5 -> With the abandonment of Farrar, Haussler is no longer blocked and should find a stage to his liking
Martens > Reynes @2.40 Bet24 2.1/5 -> The bookmakers overestimate Reynes with his second place on the first stage
Boonen > Degenkolb @2.22 Pinnacle 2.4/5 -> Degenkolb seems to suffer on the Vuelta (not top)
Fuglsang > Mollema @2.59 Pinnacle 2.1/5 -> Lotery, so value.
Joaquin > D Martin @2.26 Pinnacle 2.1/5 -> Lotery, so value.
Scarponi > Van Den Broeck @2.56 Pinnacle 2.1/5 -> Lotery, so value***8230;. Bad bet!
Petacchi > Bennati @2.55 Sportingbet 1.8/5 -> Petacchi is surprising (in a good and not so good ...) 1 place...
Haussler Top 3 @9 Unibet 0.9/5 -> With the abandonment of Farrar, Haussler is no longer blocked and should find a stage to his liking

Sorry for google translation


-----------------------
+1.42 U
-----------------------

(Live:
Bennati > Kittel @2.87 2.8/5
Bennati > Kittel @2.4 4.5/5
Kittel not top 3 @1.5 2.4/5

Haussler > Degenkolb @ 2.45 1.5/5
)

Last edited by Cycling_Tipster; 01-09-11 at 17:27.
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Old 02-09-11, 08:26   #32
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Vuelta Stage 13



Today, it's a stage for an escape! I think 95%. So the goal is to choose the good riders with good chance to be in front of the race). Behind, the leaders don't attack. Tomorrow and Angliru is more adapted! So the bet with leader is a lottery:

Barredo > Taaramae @1.4 Sportingbet 3/5
Perget > Bonnafond @2.35 Pinnacle 2.1/5
Lagutin > D Martin @2.16 Pinnacle 2.1/5
Majka > Zaugg @2.35 Pinnacle 2.1/5
Luis Leon Sanchez > Chavanel @2.1 Centrebet 2.1/5
Cobo > Van Den Broeck @2.25 Sportingbet 2.1/5
Lastras > Chavanel @2.55 Bet24 2.1/5
Boonen > Petacchi @2.55 Unibet 2.1/5
Froome > CA Sorensen @1.7 Sportingbet 1.8/5
Wiggins > Zubledia @1.85 Unibet 1.8/5
Marge of win <= 1sec @2.7 Bwin 3/5

--------------
+5.53U
--------------

(Live:
Roche > Moreno @2 3/5
Wiggins > Cobo @1.95 2.1/5
Capecchi Win @13 0.9/5 finish second with technical problem... unlucky :-(

Last edited by Cycling_Tipster; 02-09-11 at 17:15.
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Old 03-09-11, 08:06   #33
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Vuelta ***8211; Stage 14



The queen stage of the Vuelta ? Possible. The last km is very interessant with 2 hard mountain and a descent (maybe Nibali attack? But I think is not the good solution for today). Indeed the first km of last mountain is easy so a peloton organized control easy an attack! I see the battle with the leader in the last 8-5 km (avrerage -> 10%). The bookmaker fix odds with the 3 precedent stages, so no exceptional value but I took :

Nieve > CA Sorensen @2.06 Pinnacle 2.1/5
Brajkovic > Fuglsang @1.952 Pinnacle 2.1/5
Perget > Bonnafond @2.06 Pinnacle 2.1/5

Taaramae > Scarponi @2.69 Pinnacle 2.1/5
Nibali > Mollema @2.49 Pinnacle 2.1/5
Cobo > Kessiakoff @1.85 Bet24 1.5/5
Brajkovic > Roche @1.66 Sportingbet 1.8/5
Kessiakoff > Menchov @1.5 Sportingbet 1.8/5
Pardilla > Lagutin @1.85 Sportingbet 1.8/5
Cobo top 3 @5 Sportingbet 1.2/5


--------------
+3.54 U
--------------

(Live:
Cobo > Mollema @2.25 2.1/5 )

PS/ Very good stage for the LT with Cobo @21 (now trade...)

Last edited by Cycling_Tipster; 03-09-11 at 16:58.
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Old 03-09-11, 08:23   #34
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In what place Vincenzo Nibali finish stage 14?
Pick: 1-3
Odds: 5.50
Bookie: Unibet

First of all I must admit that I'm surprised what odds bookie offers on today stage. This is the second of three consecutive (and increasingly tough) mountain stages. It finishes on climb to La Farrapona extremely hard mountain and earlier consists Puerto de San Lorenzo with final 5km averaging 11 per cent. Bookies one more time designated Joaquin Rodriguez as a main favorite, while in my opinion he is the expert of the hilly climbs and his attack from two days ago was ridiculous and under the audience. I think that the best option is to pick that Vincenzo Nibali will finish today stage in top 3. He is in very good form and in great place (only 7 seconds behind that current leader Wiggins) to attack for red jersey. His main rivals should be Bauke Mollema who presented himself very well in past stages. But on the other side we still don't know how Dutch will ride in such extremely hard stages like todays and tomorrow ones, while Nibali proved on last year Vuelta and in every Giro that he can ride with best on he most steep mountains. Other rivals such as Cobo, Wiggins or Martin are in good form but lacks of acceleration (Irish rider did it once, but i don't think he can repeat it) and the stamina in the final kilometres of such steepy clims. Also odds at @5.50 are simply to good to skip it and represents great value.
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Old 03-09-11, 10:11   #35
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Vuelta - Overall

I think Cobo has a good legs for the end. 1'30 is little with the two next stage. Not many climbers front (They can explode on the high %).
Joaquin have 3 opportunities to win a stage (few chance to an escape) and the Sagan's stages are more open to an escape (so, less point to recolt!)

Cobo to win @21 Bet365 0.3/5
Joaquin Points Classification @2.2 Bet365 3/5 -> The last stage.... Noooooo

-----------
+3 U
-----------

Last edited by Cycling_Tipster; 11-09-11 at 17:32.
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Old 04-09-11, 08:16   #36
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Vuelta - Stage 15



Today, the famous mountain (angliru). It's a very interessant race (the last big stage, in the 3 weeks, the opportinuties are more for an escape...). So, today it's the race of favory! It's interessant to see the Sky rider's (Froome and the leader Wiggins), I think, the high pourcentage (>20%!) can create surpise for not pur climber.

Seeldraeyers > CA Sorensen @2.2 Unibet 2.7/5
Zaugg > Sastre @1.72 Unibet 2.1/5
Mollema > Wiggins @1.85 Bet24 1.5/5
D Martin > Lagutin @2.01 Pinnacle 2.1/5
Froome > Menchov @2.25 Pinnacle 1.2/5
Kessiakoff > Bruseghin @1.562 Pinnacle 2.4/5
Van Den Broeck > Menchov @2.2 Nordicbet 2.7/5
Kessiakof > Roche @1.68 Nordicbet 2.1/5

Lagutin > Txurucka @1.55 Bet24 2.4/5
Brajkovic > Bruseghin @2.15 Centrebet 1.95/5
Kessiakoff > CA Sorensen @1.9 Sportingbet 1.95/5



-----------
-15.77 U Lose 3 bets for 1 place (unlucky) and many errors (Kessiakoff, Brajkovic are empty after 2 weeks...). But Cobo maybe win the Vuelta (I have @21), so flat day (with a good b365 live) :-)
-----------

(Live:
Fuglsang > Kessiakoff @1.75 5/5
Monfort > Fuglsang @1.72 5/5

Anton Top 3 @4 1.8/5
Anton Win @7.8 2.49/5

Cobo Win @4.8 1.08/5 )

Tomorow, the rest day for riders and me...

Last edited by Cycling_Tipster; 04-09-11 at 20:23.
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Old 07-09-11, 06:42   #37
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Vuelta ***8211; Stage 17



Stage with many incertitude. Indeed escape can win. Xhick team team will make the jog behing !? Not Geox, bonification is good for escape for Cobo. So very difficult to found values but I have a bit :

Moreno > Fug @1.6 2.7/5 Sportingbet
Zubi > Krui @1.85 2.1/5 Sportingbet
Rohregger > De Greef @2.1 2.1/5 Bet24
Nieve > Monfort @2.05 2.1/5 Bet24
Nieve > Brajkovic @1.57 3.3/5 Unibet


-----------------
+ 9.8 U
-----------------

Last edited by Cycling_Tipster; 07-09-11 at 20:56.
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Old 08-09-11, 06:42   #38
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Vuelta ***8211; Stage 18



Another stage for an escape (my scenario). Or Sky control the race to bonification for Froome and Liquigas for Sagan***8230;

Lagutin > Moreno @2.02 2.1/5 Unibet
Menchov > D Martin @2.7 2.1/5 Sportingbet
Wiggins > poels @2.4 2.1/5 Sportingbet


----------
+4.41 U
----------

(Live:
Sijmens Top 3 @3 0.5/5 (4th ...)
)

Last edited by Cycling_Tipster; 08-09-11 at 17:55.
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Old 09-09-11, 06:43   #39
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Vuelta ***8211; Stage 19



A stage in Basque ***8220;country***8221;. Maybe many euskatel in front of the race! It***8217;s difficult to make a good analyse. Maybe the stage very quickly to go on the escape but behind Sky must control to bonification! So, many incertitude for the issue. I have an advantage for a favorite race (with Nibali attack on downhill)

Froome > Monfort @2.1 Bet24 3/5
Poels > Roche @2.1 Sportingbet 2.4/5
Menchov > D Martin @2.7 Sportingbet 2.1/5

Sastre > Zandio @1.75 Unibet 1.2/5

-------------------
-0.3 U
-------------------

Last edited by Cycling_Tipster; 09-09-11 at 22:08.
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Old 11-09-11, 10:19   #40
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Vuelta ***8211; Stage 21



Classic stage to end. A big sprint on a large road***8230;

Bennati > Sagan @2.28 Pinnacle 2.1/5
Mondory > Reynes @2.09 Pinnacle 2.1/5
Sutton> Haussler @2 Pinnacle 1.5/5
Maes > Gasparotto @2.49 Pinnacle 2.1/5
Paolini> Martens @2. Pinnacle 1.2/5

Haussler > Gasparotto @2.2 Sportingbet 1.95/5
Van Avermaet > Martens @1.75 Bet24 3/5
Sagan not win @1.4 Betfair 3/5

-------------
- 1.07 U (Sagan, bad analyse)
-------------

(Live:
Haussler > Degenkolb @2.15 2.4/5 )

Last edited by Cycling_Tipster; 11-09-11 at 17:29.
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Old 11-09-11, 11:56   #41
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Last stage = bunchsprint. Only few sprinters have reached Madrid. Petacchi, Bennati, Sagan, Haedo, Degenkolb ... and that is. Sagan and Degenkolb are better in a sprint uphill, Haedo is a class below the others and Bennati (despite the fact he won yesterday) isnt the sprinter he was years ago.

I will try 2/10 on Petacchi over Haedo @1.735 Pinnacle
I will add 2/10 Petacchi top 3 @1.86 betfair

Last edited by Badeend; 11-09-11 at 12:00.
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Old 11-09-11, 17:31   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Badeend View Post
Last stage = bunchsprint. Only few sprinters have reached Madrid. Petacchi, Bennati, Sagan, Haedo, Degenkolb ... and that is. Sagan and Degenkolb are better in a sprint uphill, Haedo is a class below the others and Bennati (despite the fact he won yesterday) isnt the sprinter he was years ago.

I will try 2/10 on Petacchi over Haedo @1.735 Pinnacle
I will add 2/10 Petacchi top 3 @1.86 betfair
Petacchi 3rd, Haedo 15th. Win + win
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