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Old 07-09-17, 14:38   #151
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Serbia needs to win today right? If they want to secure first spot in the group and avoid Spain/Croatia at 1/8?
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Old 07-09-17, 14:44   #152
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Serbia needs to win today right? If they want to secure first spot in the group and avoid Spain/Croatia at 1/8?
Serbia needs to win in order to be 1st on the table but it is also needed that Latvia wins against Turkey tonight. By becoming 1st, we have the easiest possible opponent in 1/8 - Hungary, then also the best possible opponent in 1/4 - Italy / Finland and I would say also the best possible opponent even in 1/2 - Lithuania on example. So, we skip Spain until the Final by being the 1st on table, we skip Croatia, Montenegro in 1/8 etc...

So, Serbia has to win against Belgium in order to have all those benefits in knock-out draw but does not depend only on itself but also on Latvia. Still, the first thing to do is is to beat Belgium and Serbia will do that.
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Old 07-09-17, 14:52   #153
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I see, thanks for clearing that for me!

So, Serbia win should be pretty clear here.
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Old 07-09-17, 15:55   #154
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hungary without Hanga just -12 first half
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Old 07-09-17, 18:16   #155
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Montenegro - Romania

I will not lie, first three days are most beneficial and as the time pass bookies do less n less mistakes. Even for this game they opened the same handicap as in the game btw Romania-Hungary. But I just can't stop following the Eurobasket group ending trends. Here we have yesterday's scenario and will play with probabilities again that worked dope yesterday (Iceland & Ukraine) and today cuz the only successful 'dog' winner was Great Britain, so why not to try? Can't say much here, yes Romania are the hosts and might fight considering their people mentality, but their level is way below Montanegro. On the other hand Montanegro lacked some motivation during unimportant games during preparation and even in championship, they could compete vs. Spain but lost by 30, then woke up next day and destroyd Hungary. How? Cuz they are inconsistent. Rice plays without motivation sometimes. That's what I expect, really those yellow&blues have a chance to finish while slamming the door in the Montenegrian faces while they couldn't care less about winning or loosing they still remain the same (3th) in the standings.

Pick options:
* First Half Away (ML) @ 5.980 1/10 PINNACLE
* Full Event Away +13.00 (AH) @ 1.952 5/10 PINNACLE



Latvia vs Turkey
Time is limited and I've been talking already about Latvia in my previous forecasts and comments. We didn't have any intense game today. Did we have it on the previous days? Oh yeah we did. Turkey must play the hosts card here and push Latvians on defencive end, cuz this is the only key to succes, so the most likely scenario is a really close and do or die game here. Can't imagine any joyful face at any camp when loosing means facing Spain in 8-finals.
I play 5 units here at all.

Pick option:
* Latvia vs Turkey Any other result (Winning Margin 3-Way) @ 2.700 2/10 Bet365
* Full Event Under 157.5 (O/U) @ 1.990 3/10 PINNACLE


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Old 07-09-17, 18:28   #156
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Turkey lost two close encounter in last few minutes and perhaps it is time to start winning.
Latvia is nothing special,depend on three or four players,while bench is holly crap,which was easily seen against Great Britain.
Host dont have stars,but have experienced team run by crazy audience.
I will try Turkey at 2.55 odds
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Old 08-09-17, 10:32   #157
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalibor View Post
Turkey lost two close encounter in last few minutes and perhaps it is time to start winning.
Latvia is nothing special,depend on three or four players,while bench is holly crap,which was easily seen against Great Britain.
Host dont have stars,but have experienced team run by crazy audience.
I will try Turkey at 2.55 odds
Sorry mate but this comment is really funny. So Timma, Strelnieks, both brothers Bertans, Porzingis etc are nothing special? So Guler, Sipahi, Erden e co. are Nba stars?
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Old 08-09-17, 13:35   #158
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http://forum.bettingadvice.com/showthread.php?t=105734

Pick: Germany +8.5
Odds: 1.91
Stake: 8/10

France performance was very shaky in the group. Not a huge surprise considering multiple player losses.
So, they lost to Finland in OT, lost to Slovenia in a clear match with big difference in determination. They defeated greeks and poles, but both games had a good share of questions, too. Game with Greece was actually good, but it also showed that France is not capable to stay consistent for 40 minutes.
With Iceland.. quality difference is just too big to consider it somewhat important.

Now Germany had really good games in Group B. They lost a "won" match against Israel and gave up soon against Lithuania. Other than that, they showed a really mature approach to the game and tactic-wise they are really good. They are much more than just Schroder alone now. They are just a solid team.

Besides that, Germany played their matches in Israel, which is much closer to Turkey and very similar in climate, too. A bit different story with Finland, where France played group matches. This might be a minor advantage for germans, but still is.
8.5 handicap is just too much here, as I expect close game and still considering straight win, too.
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Old 08-09-17, 17:45   #159
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I have bet Germany win when odds were higher. I would bet also Finland win over Italy, but I will pass it because I already hope that Finland wins. Its interesting that France is big favourite against Germany and Italy is favourite against Finland. Germany was better than Italy and Finland was better than France. I saw several group A games and truth is that Slovenia and Finland were 2 best teams. France of course have potential, but this year team does not look impressive at all. Greece is nothing special and its very difficult to believe that they would have a chance against Lithuania. Finland has played way better than in training games before tournament. there was very uncertain feeling when tournament started how Finland is going to play. This team has whole nation support first time and I believe that team has similar spirit as they had in Helsinki.
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Old 08-09-17, 19:45   #160
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Croatia - Russia 152- total points,bet365

Expect the line will drop till sunday.Knockout phase,akcent on defense will be as always.Russia is 15. in scoring at this tournament and croatians are 10. even though they played against 2 amateur teams in grooup.Croatians 3 matches in group under this line(125,132,148) against Spain 152 and vs Czech it doesnt matter as it was a meaningless game.Russians play very organised defense and have some very good defenders like Kurbanov(elite euroleague defender) who should slow down Bogdanovic at least a little bit.Eitherway i expect a slow game,not many possesions,and not so much transition.I expect around 140 points,maybe even less.

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Old 08-09-17, 21:42   #161
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guys any opinion about +14 ukraine vs slovenia? i see value )
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Old 08-09-17, 23:51   #162
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Turkey - Spain

I am surprised some friends adviced Turkey against Latvia. This is the weakest Turkish roster for ages. Nobody expect anything but only fight from these guys and they do it. This is a very limited team. Spain are the clear favourite to win Eurobasket. I expect a trash from Spain here. They can win by 30+ points if they don't take their foot off the gas. Current line is -14 @ 1.80 at Pinnacle. Best offer of the weekend, in my opinion.
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Old 09-09-17, 00:34   #163
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Quote:
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Turkey - Spain

I am surprised some friends adviced Turkey against Latvia. This is the weakest Turkish roster for ages. Nobody expect anything but only fight from these guys and they do it. This is a very limited team. Spain are the clear favourite to win Eurobasket. I expect a trash from Spain here. They can win by 30+ points if they don't take their foot off the gas. Current line is -14 @ 1.80 at Pinnacle. Best offer of the weekend, in my opinion.
Agree on Turkey being weak, but still has HCA and Spain trashing awful Rom/Cze/Hun don't really mean much. Their forthcoming lines might be inflated after playing in a ridiculous group, I don't think this is the best Spain team we've seen either.
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Old 09-09-17, 01:14   #164
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Agree on Turkey being weak, but still has HCA and Spain trashing awful Rom/Cze/Hun don't really mean much. Their forthcoming lines might be inflated after playing in a ridiculous group, I don't think this is the best Spain team we've seen either.
Yes but Spainish players have a lot of experience. They know that the difficult will be higher after the group stage. However i'm not comfortable in big handicap win, in these matches winning by a point or with 20 points is the same.
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Old 09-09-17, 09:23   #165
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I have bet Germany win when odds were higher. I would bet also Finland win over Italy, but I will pass it because I already hope that Finland wins. Its interesting that France is big favourite against Germany and Italy is favourite against Finland. Germany was better than Italy and Finland was better than France. I saw several group A games and truth is that Slovenia and Finland were 2 best teams. France of course have potential, but this year team does not look impressive at all. Greece is nothing special and its very difficult to believe that they would have a chance against Lithuania. Finland has played way better than in training games before tournament. there was very uncertain feeling when tournament started how Finland is going to play. This team has whole nation support first time and I believe that team has similar spirit as they had in Helsinki.
Fans pushed your NT a lot, I really doubt that the same spirit can be carried on to Stambul. Especially I mean when it's getting tough, it's really hard to get yourself together and make a comeback, Finland made it atleast few times (Poland/France) and fans had major impact on it, they simply didn't let your NT to give up. Finns are known to support NT outside their country too, so the question is, will we see few thousands of your supporters in Stambul or not. Other than that, for Italy Finland should be quite suitable rival. Finland doesn't have dominant C, who could expose one of the main weakenesses of Italian NT in C position, Finns aren't really great at perimeter defense, where Italy builds their game on. Afterall for the same Markkanen it won't be easy to play against Melli/Datome on both sides of the court. Also I'm wondering how Markkanen will cope with huge knock-out game pressure, it's totally different thing than playin' in group stage at home. Meanwhile all key players for Italy are very experienced players, with plenty of such games under their belts, it might play major role too and Italy has Messina on bench, who surely will have a plan how to stop Lauri and co. Italy can play lock-down defense, while Finns, I'm afraid, can't answer with it.
So despite I really love this Finland team and my heart is with them, my mind says Italy this time
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Old 09-09-17, 12:37   #166
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Fans pushed your NT a lot, I really doubt that the same spirit can be carried on to Stambul. Especially I mean when it's getting tough, it's really hard to get yourself together and make a comeback, Finland made it atleast few times (Poland/France) and fans had major impact on it, they simply didn't let your NT to give up. Finns are known to support NT outside their country too, so the question is, will we see few thousands of your supporters in Stambul or not. Other than that, for Italy Finland should be quite suitable rival. Finland doesn't have dominant C, who could expose one of the main weakenesses of Italian NT in C position, Finns aren't really great at perimeter defense, where Italy builds their game on. Afterall for the same Markkanen it won't be easy to play against Melli/Datome on both sides of the court. Also I'm wondering how Markkanen will cope with huge knock-out game pressure, it's totally different thing than playin' in group stage at home. Meanwhile all key players for Italy are very experienced players, with plenty of such games under their belts, it might play major role too and Italy has Messina on bench, who surely will have a plan how to stop Lauri and co. Italy can play lock-down defense, while Finns, I'm afraid, can't answer with it.
So despite I really love this Finland team and my heart is with them, my mind says Italy this time
I agree everything you wrote, but I kind of see this year as break and at least to 8 best. All that support is surely giving still boost, because before they left they said that they know that 6th player is behind them. slovenia completely just destroyed Ukraine which does not surprise after seeing how good Slovenia was. Few hundred finnish fans are reported to be in Turkey, about 30 slovenians and only some ukraine fans went to Turkey. This is not god thing to basketball, Finland would have been good option to final games. In Helsinki there was 3000-4000 iceland fans and from other countries some hundreds. Finland basketball federation made positive financial result and finally basketball is very high in most liked sports list in Finland. Before that we did had big fanbase, but were lacking nationwide support. Over million finns are going to watch todays tv game.
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Old 09-09-17, 14:06   #167
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Serbia vs Hungary @14:15 CET

Simply quality difference is huge here. Hungary counts on 2 players, Hanga and Vojvoda, while 10 other players are playing in Hungary being able to see those Serbian players only on TV (as their coach Ivkovic also said yesterday). Serbia's defence is well known, for sure the best one on this championship and on this match there wont be any chance for defence to be on lower level. Hanga and Vojvoda will be stopped easily, so others wont be able to do anything. This line will be beaten by HT already as I cant imagine Hungary scoring more than 60 pts here (simply, there is no magic for something like that against Serbian defence) while Serbia should be on 90 easily. My call is +25 or +30

Serbia -16.5
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Old 11-09-17, 09:38   #168
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Quarter final games:

Germany vs Spain
Germany won against France but France this year was very poor. I think that we will see open game because Spain will lead at least 10 points difference from first quarter on, so I think that the best bet here is over 149,5 points (odd 1.90).

Slovenia vs Latvia
This games should be very tight. Both teams has a lot of good scorers and in Slovenia team will be a lot on G. Dragic who can score alone more than 20 points if he will be in daily form. I expect high scoring game but I think it safer to take Slovenia /-1,5/.

Greece vs Russia
I don't see any chances for Greece here and I think that bookies makes mistake here because Russia is much more quality team and I will take here Russia /-1.5/ (odd 1.95) because I expect easy win for Russia

Italy vs Serbia
I must say that I expected much more from Serbia against Hungary (btw I didn't bet this match) and now I am thinking that it is worth to take Italy with hendy + 6.5 (odd 1.90).

Any comments, suggestions?
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Old 11-09-17, 10:23   #169
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Greece is a clear favourite imo against Russia,but every outcome here is possible since Russia showed impresive tactiks and chemistry.
Value is on Italy hendi and under in this game since both teams can play tight defense.
Spain will destroy Germans if they want to but i dont think they will push too hard.
Latvia-Slovenia,probably over on players margins,two teams that play very fast tempo with lots of possesions and transition.

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Old 12-09-17, 15:59   #170
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http://forum.bettingadvice.com/showthread.php?t=105734

Germany - Spain
Pick: Under 150.0
Odds: 1.92
Stake: 8/10

Spain yet again plays against big underdog and they already showed that they are comfortable playing "B game", as long as they are winning. They scored a ton against weak teams in the first round, but that was more about their opponents, not so much about spaniards. Germany will not give up so easily. They are a very well organized team and should not give up many fast break points, but they will also have hard time finding opportunities against Gasol/Hernangomez brothers and Rubio - all great defenders and they all match up great against Germany offense leaders. Spain offense is also not so fast anymore and it's much more about efficiency, not about volume.

To sum up - both teams know how to play and prefer smart "oldschool" basketball and fastest guy on both teams Schroder will have much harder game than any before in this Eurobasket.
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Old 12-09-17, 16:34   #171
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Schroder ower 21,5 points? No way....against spain? I agrew with you mj84, much harder defense, they will limit him...
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Old 12-09-17, 16:39   #172
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Just copy paste translate from slovenian sport page: Slovenian basketball team can take part in the semi-finals this time for the second time in the history of European championships.
Against her, in the Sinan Erdem hall in Istanbul, the chosen type of Latvia will be. With the seventh consecutive victory, Slovenia would be only one step away from the desired medal, which was closest to the European Championship 2009 in Poland.
Then Goran Dragi***263;, Jaka Lakovi***269;, Boštjan Nachbar, Brothers Lorbek and other Jure Zdovc's favorites beat Croatia in the quarter-finals, then slammed unhappily in front of Serbia and similar in the match for the third place ahead of Greece. Five of the six matches were won by the quarterfinals.
"We were expecting the victory of Latvia, but I have reigned for Montenegro I have some friends. I know that a difficult task awaits us, because I looked at Latvia in the first part and saw that it had a huge reserve, which has also proven against Montenegrins, "said Edo Muric.
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Old 12-09-17, 16:49   #173
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slovenš***269;inaThere is no euphoria, but a positive winning mentality, which, in my opinion, derives from Dragic and professional leadership, and was taken over by the entire team, "Tilen Jamnik from Constantinople sums up a successful Slovene story.
Slovenia won six wins at the European basketball championship and in the big style swept the top eight. On Tuesday, Latvia will compete. MMC's journalist Tilna Jamnik, one day before the big match, hosted a web chat, one of the questions flew to the tactics that Slovenia must take tomorrow. Above all, it will have to be aggressive in defense.
"Of course, Slovenian power can be an aggressive defense, which begins with pressure on the ball, where Blaži***269; can be key, and Nikolic is excellent in defense, and of course, they will have to be very aggressive under the ring. Porzingis, for example, is not only dangerous from distance, it can also "attack" the ring, even if he is left too much space. As I said, I think that a few Slovenian basketball players can score three, especially when they are themselves, after Dragic or Doncic the two players are drawn. Creations in the Slovene game are enough, even the soft hands behind the line. "
At the end of the eighth finals, Latvia showed an exceptional target for three points (15/25). Can he repeat such a shooting show? "I think it's I think that a few Slovenian basketball players can score three, especially when they are themselves, after Dragic or Doncic the two players are drawn. Creations in the Slovene game are enough, even the soft hands behind the line. "
At the end of the eighth finals, Latvia showed an exceptional target for three points (15/25). Can he repeat such a shooting show? "I think it's difficult. Even though Latvia has excellent shooters, for example, Lithuania, for example, has almost three times to hit, but the fact is that the Montenegrin defense was not on the right level. The Latvians remained alone, and this their main snipers, I believe that it will not be the case against Slovenia. If they have such a meeting, they will have to have a really crazy day. Certainly Slovenians will not allow light targets. "
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Old 13-09-17, 10:25   #174
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Russia - Greece 2 odds 2

Greeks have beter squad imo,10 players playing in top EL clubs,and which is more important players who play together for years,not just in national team,but in clubs also.They played bad in group stage,but in last 2 games showed their quality.Mainly because Sloukas and Calathes finnaly play more minutes together ,esspecialy in final quarter.And they are fantastic duo,seems like they can read eachothers minds on the fluor.They have fanatic defender Papanicolau on forward alonside top EL point forward Printezis.Much more options in atack then Russia.They only need to close Shved and i think they can do it.Problem for Greece this year is defense ,but against strong Liuthania they showed much improvance with it.Chemistry in the team now seems great,public in Greece crusified them after group stage,but now they are almost heroes.Also,in these tournaments its tradition for good teames after playing awful in group stage to go all the way in knockout phase ( Yugoslavia for example in 2002).Most important fact for me here is that Greeks have much bigger experience in playing these kind of games then Russians.Also , it could be important that they will play as they are on their homecourt,since they should have much more fans in arene then Russians(of course much louder fanatic fans too,since they are famous for it).
I even think that Greeks should reach finals,as they shouldnt be underdog against Serbia/Italy also.
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Old 13-09-17, 11:53   #175
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Serbia vs Italy @20:30 CET

Simply it is all about tactic - Italy will risk with Jovic' shoot for sure as he is called for bad shooter but actually he can hit 3-pointers pretty easily. He will take 4-5 shoots for 3 for sure, while he will also play 25-30 minutes today as I cant see Micic playing more than 5-10 minutes today as he is unusable. This line should be beaten easily

Jovic OVER 6.5
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Old 13-09-17, 11:57   #176
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Quote:
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Serbia vs Italy @20:30 CET

Simply it is all about tactic - Italy will risk with Jovic' shoot for sure as he is called for bad shooter but actually he can hit 3-pointers pretty easily. He will take 4-5 shoots for 3 for sure, while he will also play 25-30 minutes today as I cant see Micic playing more than 5-10 minutes today as he is unusable. This line should be beaten easily

Jovic OVER 6.5

Fully agree with this one.
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Old 14-09-17, 12:28   #177
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Tough luck yesterday... Today, Spain should win against Slovenia, I think.
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Old 15-09-17, 15:09   #178
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WOW, what a game from Slovenia team, no ther comment needed, we are goong for GOLD!
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Old 15-09-17, 17:02   #179
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Gold going in Serbia ofc...
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Old 15-09-17, 21:38   #180
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Well, i doubt that Slovenia can win against Serbia in any sport, especially in the finals, so...Serbia to win.

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