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Old 16-05-18, 12:35   #1
WiserthantheCrowd
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Default 18.06.18 00:15 CET Libertad vs. Atletico Tucuman

This is the last group match in the Copa Libertadores. Libertad are already qualified with 12 points. Unless they lose the last match to Atletico Tucuman by 3 or more goals they are also assured of 1st place.

Atletico Tucuman are in a race for 2nd spot with Penarol who will be playing the stragglers - "The Strongest" - at home. Therefore, Atletico Tucuman need at least a draw to ensure that they will definitely advance and I believe they will get it.

The reason is that Libertad have had a very busy schedule and fatigue is setting in... You could see that in their game against Sol de America this Monday. They were 3:1 ahead but conceded 2 goals in the last 10 minutes. Next Monday they will play Nacional with whom Libertad are in a tight race for 2nd place in Paraguay together with Cerro. This matters because only the first 2 teams in Paraguay are awarded starting places in the Copa Lbertadores - the next 2 have to go through qualifying. So at this point, I'd say it's fair to assume that Libertad will be looking ahead to their upcoming game against Nacional (who are 1 point ahead of them in the standings with Cerro 2 points ahead). If they want to attain 2nd place in the Paraguayan league this game is a must win for them (especially since Nacional have a game in hand against Sol de America which they will play on Thursday night). The problem for Libertad right now is that key players seem a bit worn out...

Atletico Tucuman, on the other hand, are fresh and totally focused on this match. They rested some starters against Lanus on Saturday and their league has now finished so that this will be their last match of the season. They come into this match totally motivated to attain a historic first for their club - advancing past the group stage of the Copa...

For Libertad this match is an inconvenience at worst or a test match at best. Although it has not been announced yet, I am sure that Libertad will rest most, if not all, regulars in what is a dead rubber match for them. Quite frankly, I think Libertad will not want to lose by more than 3 goals against Atletico Tucuman and get this game out of the way. Of course, it's a good chance to give the reserves the chance to shine and some may outperform expectations but overall I'd give the edge to the visitors...

Currently betting markets seem to favor the draw but I think Atletico Tucuman DNB is the way to go here. Marathonbet offer this for 2.47. Anything above even odds is value in my opinion.

Last but not least, it's worth mentioning that Libertad were strong at home in the Copa and beat both Penarol and "The Strongest." However, domestically they've been stronger on the road than at home. (Away their record is 5-3-1 and at home 3-2-3.) So their home ground is by no means an impenetrable fortress.

Atletico Tucuman beat The Strongest in La Paz recently which is no mean feat and have what it takes to beat a Libertad B side.

Good luck!

Last edited by WiserthantheCrowd; 16-05-18 at 14:58.
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Old 18-05-18, 11:03   #2
WiserthantheCrowd
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Default

The game ended 0-0. This was kind of predictable from the end of the 1st half when the Atletico Tucuman GK was sent off for a foul. Basically Atletico Tucuman just sat back and didn't do much upfront. Libertad opted to play with their regulars and they weren't exactly busting their asses either. If ever there was the equivalent of a non-aggression pact in soccer, you could see it on display here.
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