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Betting strategy records Does different betting strategies work? Here you can see proven records of certain betting strategies. Updated after each pick/analysis, after the result is known.
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Old 21-09-10, 22:28   #1
d@du18
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Thumbs up My Lay strategy

Ok. my strategy is very simple. it is based on the favorite teams, all from football and it can be played at betfair, betsson or other bookmaker that offers exchange.

We often see that without a good analyse we can't predict who'll win (nither this way, but we have more chances) and day by day we see our bank decreasing because we are greedy and we can't have just one or two matches/day, we see A TEAM at home and B TEAM who ... and take them too. at the and of the day we see that we don't have any profit because we played on too many games.

I'll give you an example:

On Saturday there are many games, you don't know what to chose. you take Milan @ 1.30, Inter @ 1.25...TEAM X @ 1.50, let's say 10 games at about 1.50 odd each, witch 10u stake

10u x 1.50 = 15u (+5u profit)

It's very hard to catch them all because there are always surprises

5 win - 5 lose = -25u
6 win - 4 lose = -10u
7 win - 3 lose = +5u

So you have to win 7 and lose just 3 games to have profit, and the odds I have put are bigger than what you'll find

Now here is my strategy:

I'll find all the favorite teams of the day and lay them. if you are 99% sure of a game...LAY it too, there will be always one surprise.


d@du

Last edited by d@du18; 30-09-10 at 12:32.
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Old 21-09-10, 22:48   #2
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I know sometime is hard to understand (+ my english suck's) so I will give you a concret example for today's fixture:

Club Brugge @ 1.24 (-2.4u)
Anderlecht @ 1.47 (+10u)
Standard @ 1.42 (-4.2u)
Aston Villa @ 1.97 (-9.7u)
Chelsea @ 1.34 (+10u)
Wigan @ 1.75 (-7.5u)
Sochaux @ 1.60 (+10u)
Dortmund @ 1.55 (-5.5u)
Leverkusen @ 1.78 (-7.8u)
Inter @ 1.51 (-5.1u)
Napoli @ 1.71 (+10u)
Almeria @ 1.81 (+10u)
Barcelona @ 1.17 (-1.7u)

All games layed with 10u stake. we'll see tonight if there are any surprises

Last edited by d@du18; 22-09-10 at 21:53.
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Old 23-09-10, 13:18   #3
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After 1 day I have +6.1u profit without any statistic, whit more free time that you are losting when analyzing

...yesterday I was unlucky because most of the favorite teams win their match. I see more profit in the next week!!
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Old 23-09-10, 19:38   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by d@du18 View Post
After 1 day I have +6.1u profit
No, you have not. Because you've forgot the betfair comission... +3.6 is better...
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Old 24-09-10, 12:26   #5
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I didn't say that I'm playing at betfair...betsson doesn't have any comission

Anyway, the idea is that I have profit
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Old 24-09-10, 12:34   #6
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For yesterday I've played on:

Sion (+10u)
Sevilla (+10u)
Steaua Bucharest (-4.4u)
Breda (-6.5u)
FC Nordsj. (-7u)

Profit +2u ... every team layed with 10u stake.


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Old 25-09-10, 13:41   #7
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For today I've picked many games, as same, all with 10u stake. hope to get some surprises

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Old 26-09-10, 11:27   #8
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For yesterday I caught just 5 surprises from 16 game, also profit !!

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Old 26-09-10, 11:34   #9
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If betfair take comission then I have 9.5u instead of 10u for winner bets, so my final profit is 3u !!

I do not need any statistic about the games, any effort, just lay all most favorite teams .

I'll take some games for today, maybe I'll be lucky and get more profit...
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Old 26-09-10, 11:40   #10
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This strategy won't profit in a long term, market liquidity on betting exchanges have very accuracy estimations. Maybe if you're good, you can make some small profit, but if you just laying favourites sides, exchange commisions will get you to lose. It's only question of time, trust me. I like to bet on this if it's possible also :-)
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Old 26-09-10, 16:45   #11
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We'll see...

Brondby (+9.5u)
Valerenga (-2.1u)
Apollon Limasol (+9.5u)
Omonia (+9.5u)
Dinamo Zagreb (-3.5u)
Levski Sofia (-5.5u)
Andrelecht (-3.9u)
Cerno More (-3.6u)
NEC (-7.5u)

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Old 26-09-10, 17:31   #12
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It looks interesting. If you combined it with a little research it could become even better.
Dont know if you looking to go + with as little effort as possible or if the profit is more important then a little research would do some good I think.

Like not laying Barca and Real for example.
But Lay more smal favourites in German, french, Italy and so on, these leagues together with the English are getting more and more competative. Also I think the huge favourites in Tennis and some hockey leagues (specially european) could also provide good profit.

Defintely I like this better, risking less on opposing big favourites with higer profits, then risk more on Huge favourites and have ridiculous odds as we know there are no value in them.

For example Grefstad said there are many injuries in Brann and then we could take that one out of the list (Vålerenga - brann). And make soem exceptions here and there like Chelsea and Man U at home and as mentioned Real at home and maybe take Barca out completely in the league when they hit form.
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Old 26-09-10, 21:12   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by d@du18 View Post
We'll see...

Brondby (+9.5u)
Valerenga (-2.1u)
Apollon Limasol (+9.5u)
Omonia (+9.5u)
Dinamo Zagreb (-3.5u)
Levski Sofia (-5.5u)
Andrelecht (-3.9u)
Cerno More (-3.6u)
NEC (-7.5u)
Profit +6u
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Old 04-10-10, 14:03   #14
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On september I've got some good profit. I hadn't enought time to post all my daily bets but I'll do this starting with this month.

The bets witch I've posted here show that I have 17.1u profit (including the comission took by betfair) just in 4 days and without any statictics

Last edited by d@du18; 08-10-10 at 10:26.
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Old 06-10-10, 10:25   #15
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October

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Old 06-10-10, 22:03   #16
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Not so bad
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Old 08-10-10, 10:30   #17
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Let's see the NT...i don't expect many surprises today, but I'll try my luck !!

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Old 08-10-10, 21:52   #18
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I always lose when it's time for NT games...maybe I'll do better tomorrow and have more luck cause today i didn't had any...Greece 1-0, Czech 1-0, Georgia 1-0

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Old 15-10-10, 13:06   #19
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Maybe after the European Qualification the players will be tired and weak teams have a better chance to win



Good luck !!
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Old 15-10-10, 21:37   #20
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Not too good



Tomorrow is another day...and I still have profit, and I'll try to rise him with some surprises those days
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Old 17-10-10, 11:27   #21
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Not too confident for today's fixtures, although I layed 11 "favorites" ...


GL !!
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Old 18-10-10, 10:22   #22
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I was close
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Old 18-10-10, 13:09   #23
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Old 18-10-10, 13:14   #24
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if you dont put some filters in your selections you will always be with minimum profit or minimum loss

long term

just an opinion
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Old 18-10-10, 22:30   #25
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At what kind of filters are you thinking?! any advice is appreciated. thx



Not a good day...but I'm waiting for tommorow's CL games, where surprises appears

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Old 19-10-10, 08:55   #26
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Choose only a few leagues, and odds under 1.5 or something like that...


Da-mi add YM:Steff_fun
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Old 19-10-10, 10:59   #27
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If today I have no profit, I'll end my strategy ass bankrupt !!

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Old 19-10-10, 11:42   #28
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Interesting strategy, but as someone said you need to filter some games... I took a look at games you played, and first of all I wouldn't play any games from former Russian countries and Cyprus... Leave national selections alone... Play Big 5 leagues as there is many teams that play European competitions and often can lose before/after those games, and add Brazilian Serie A and B as there is always surprise or two...

Also do not play over @1.50 odds, there is to big loss if slight favorite wins...

Well this is just my humble opinion how to tweak this strategy
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Old 19-10-10, 12:08   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Milos NS View Post
Interesting strategy, but as someone said you need to filter some games... I took a look at games you played, and first of all I wouldn't play any games from former Russian countries and Cyprus... Leave national selections alone... Play Big 5 leagues as there is many teams that play European competitions and often can lose before/after those games, and add Brazilian Serie A and B as there is always surprise or two...

Also do not play over @1.50 odds, there is to big loss if slight favorite wins...

Well this is just my humble opinion how to tweak this strategy
very good suggestions I agree. Omonia might have brought you profit but I agree with Milos here. Avoid Cyprus league, cause although we started seeing more outsiders winning, most of the times favorites do win
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Old 19-10-10, 13:55   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Milos NS View Post
Interesting strategy, but as someone said you need to filter some games... I took a look at games you played, and first of all I wouldn't play any games from former Russian countries and Cyprus... Leave national selections alone... Play Big 5 leagues as there is many teams that play European competitions and often can lose before/after those games, and add Brazilian Serie A and B as there is always surprise or two...

Also do not play over @1.50 odds, there is to big loss if slight favorite wins...

Well this is just my humble opinion how to tweak this strategy
3. suggestion here: take a look at this link: http://data2.7m.cn/database/

Statistics from all countries u can imagine in last few years, and see and write down "home" teams that doesn't lose often at home... South America is my cup of tea, so I could give you some pointers there, but in Euro leagues for example you should avoid Genoa in Serie A, Atl.Bilbao in Primera etc...

All in all your idea is more than interesting, but need much more work than plain LAY all the favorites approach...

Hope u will dig into this...
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