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Old 13-03-18, 14:49   #1
RafaRoger
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Default Denmark Superligaen 18 MAR

OB still have a chance for top 6 play off despite losing to AGF. They need to beat Randers and hope for Lyngby to beat Horsens and Hobro not to beat Brøndby. It looks difficult because Lyngby are quite bad at the moment, but Horsens have 4 suspensions so theres possibilities perhaps. Anyway as games are played at the same time on sunday, then OB must first do their thing and after they will see where it leaves them but they should be well motivated. Randers are in dissaray and have 2 defenders suspended; Mads Agesen and Jonas Bager which doesn't do them any good but they're already bad enough with them. OB have no suspensions but were suffering from some injuries in the game with AGF and defender Joao Pereira that could still be out for personal reasons. I will definetely bet on OB to win and I think odds are tasty @ above 2.
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Old 13-03-18, 17:41   #2
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Brøndby have their key player defensive mid Christian Nørgaard suspended for the meeting with top 6 chasing Hobro. Besar Halimi and Simon Tibbling were both out from the midfield against Horsens, I don't know their status for the last match of the regular season but I will update at a later time. Hobro will have their important offensive mid Edgar Babayan back from suspension, theres still few injuries to mostly defensive players but nothing new to my knowledge.

I think goals are a good option here, so over 3 will be my call. Theres usually plenty of goals in Brøndby's homegames and I expect 2-3 goals from homeside. Hobro will not lie down and could contribute to the scoring imo, they've got the qualities to do so.
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Old 13-03-18, 18:05   #3
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Waiting on Pinnacle to come out with odds on Superligaen, but Unibet have some good odds right now on my before mentioned choices: OB @ 2.2 and Over 3 @ 1.84. GL
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Old 15-03-18, 13:39   #4
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OB's second topscorer with 6 goals (Topscorer is Anders K. Jakobsen with 11 goals), Rasmus Festersen is highly doubtful for sunday. It's a blow as he's an important player but OB have good players to replace him if needs be.

Other news: Hobro have some illness in the squad at the moment, I don't know the names but 5 players are down at the moment and the whole squad is send home today, hoping for them to train normally again tomorrow.
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Old 15-03-18, 16:16   #5
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Have in mind, it is not good for OB to win against Randers if Horsens wins, OB must not go by Hobro on the 7th spot unless they sure to also go to the 6th spot..

If they end on the 7th spot and not holding their 8th spot, they end in a much harder relegation playoff group.

Group 1
7. Hobro 32 point
10. AGF 28 point
11. Silkeborg 28 point
14. FC Helsingør 17 point

Group 2

8. OB 31 point
9. SønderjyskE 31 point
12. Lyngby 20 point
13. Randers FC 17 point

The bottom two teams in each group will play the final playoff for relegation.. and as one can see it is easier in group 2 because there a 11 point gap as the standing is right now.
12 will met 14 and 11 will met 13 in the relegation playoffs

In group 1, it is much closer, so it is better to end on the 8-9 spot then the 7th spot.

Helsingør have no interest in winning either, is better for them to meet Randers or Lyngby in a playoff game then Silkeborg, AGF or Hobro.. if Horsens is on a early lead or big lead, there can be a sitiuation where several teams have no interest in winning their games...

Nordsjælland is pretty much the only team who can go for a big win and meeting Helsingør who is best for to lose..

A bit the same in FC Midtjylland and Sønderjyske.. winning for Sønderjyske is not good if Hobro not getting any points also, and they hardly do meeting Brøndby away..

Livebetting is the best options in this round as there is so much at stake and a bit complicated motivation for the diffent teams for winning their games.

Last edited by Vilfort; 15-03-18 at 16:23.
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Old 15-03-18, 16:20   #6
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The games this round, they all start at 17:00

AGF - AaB
Brøndby - Hobro
FC Helsingør - FC Nordsjælland
Lyngby - Horsens
Randers - OB
Silkeborg - FC København
FC Midtjylland - SønderjyskE

Full standing
1. Brøndby IF 25 17 6 2 56:23 57

2. FC Midtjylland 25 18 3 4 58:28 57

3. FC Nordsjælland 25 15 5 5 62:40 50

4. FC København 25 12 5 8 47:32 41

5. AaB 25 8 11 6 28:27 35

6. AC Horsens 25 7 13 5 31:33 34

7. Hobro IK 25 8 8 9 32:31 32

8. OB 25 8 7 10 31:27 31

9. SønderjyskE 25 8 7 10 35:32 31

10. AGF 25 7 7 11 23:36 28

11. Silkeborg 25 8 4 13 31:46 28

12. Lyngby 25 4 8 13 30:52 20

13. Randers FC 25 3 8 14 19:45 17

14. FC Helsingør 25 5 2 18 21:52 17
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Old 15-03-18, 18:07   #7
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@Vilfort

Thanks for your post! Yes, Theres a lot of speculation about this final round about almost every team, but I'll assume that no team deliberately goes out with intension to lose a certain match! Call me naive if you like
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Old 15-03-18, 19:26   #8
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Well.. i will call that naive, we dont see that normally, like in Italy but when there is a sitiuation like this, with a lot of money at stake, there is a whole world diffence in the money in Superliga and 1 division.
Ofc it is not fair play but i completely understand it, why put the team in a danger of a relegation play off game, when you can just lose a game that doesn't matter for you? Or give yourself tougher opponents in the relegation playoff if you win a game that will change nothing for you, coz you can't avoid the playoff in any way..

I'm not saying that OB for instance will go for the defeat from the start but if Horsens are in the lead suddenly, then a lot changes for them.. but if Lyngby is in the lead, then ofc they can take the game otherwise serious and go for the win, which can bring them in top 6, if Brøndby as expected are beating Hobro.. so livebetting is the choice.
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Old 16-03-18, 14:17   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vilfort View Post
Have in mind, it is not good for OB to win against Randers if Horsens wins, OB must not go by Hobro on the 7th spot unless they sure to also go to the 6th spot..

If they end on the 7th spot and not holding their 8th spot, they end in a much harder relegation playoff group.

Group 1
7. Hobro 32 point
10. AGF 28 point
11. Silkeborg 28 point
14. FC Helsingør 17 point

Group 2

8. OB 31 point
9. SønderjyskE 31 point
12. Lyngby 20 point
13. Randers FC 17 point

The bottom two teams in each group will play the final playoff for relegation.. and as one can see it is easier in group 2 because there a 11 point gap as the standing is right now.
12 will met 14 and 11 will met 13 in the relegation playoffs

In group 1, it is much closer, so it is better to end on the 8-9 spot then the 7th spot.

Helsingør have no interest in winning either, is better for them to meet Randers or Lyngby in a playoff game then Silkeborg, AGF or Hobro.. if Horsens is on a early lead or big lead, there can be a sitiuation where several teams have no interest in winning their games...

Nordsjælland is pretty much the only team who can go for a big win and meeting Helsingør who is best for to lose..

A bit the same in FC Midtjylland and Sønderjyske.. winning for Sønderjyske is not good if Hobro not getting any points also, and they hardly do meeting Brøndby away..

Livebetting is the best options in this round as there is so much at stake and a bit complicated motivation for the diffent teams for winning their games.
Fenomenal Post, Thank You
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Old 16-03-18, 14:39   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RafaRoger View Post
Besar Halimi and Simon Tibbling were both out from the midfield against Horsens, I don't know their status for the last match of the regular season but I will update at a later time.
It seems Simon Tibbling is back for Brøndby, which is absolute key, but Besar Halimi could still be out.

Odds dropped on goals and as I have much faith in Brøndby I will also take them over 2.5 @ 1.96 Unibet. GL
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Old 16-03-18, 14:46   #11
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Asian bookies still not out with odds...probably their scared for this round. A word about the bet on OB: I would naturally prefer that there wasn't this speculation about whether the teams wants to win or not but I really believe we wouldn't be getting these kind of odds on OB against a poor team like Randers if things were clear cut and so to me it's worth the risk. That said I understand if others aren't willing to take the risk (prematch at least, livebetting is always an option).
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Old 18-03-18, 00:38   #12
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Mates, what about FCK to score two or more? They seem to hit form now. Silkeborg defense is far from being good. Will FCK be motivated ?
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Old 18-03-18, 07:06   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mij0sim View Post
Mates, what about FCK to score two or more? They seem to hit form now. Silkeborg defense is far from being good. Will FCK be motivated ?
Fck is motivated, they will have a go for the 3rd spot to get to play in Europe next season. But fck is still a bit shaky team i think, i'm not convinced, but they are still winning the games at the moment, we saw last round, they where in big trouble at home against bottomteam FC Helsingør, scoring the winning goal in the 89th. minut, and FCH even had a great chance to get 4-4 in the overtime.
Fck haven't been great at all this season away, can't remember when they have lost so many points away in a season, but ofc they normally have another standard, this have been a bad season over all.

Silkeborg will also be motivated for a win, they need the 3 points for the relegation playoff and are pretty strong at home on the artifical turf, there they like to play offensive football, Fck have a good h2h against Silkeborg but things are not like normal with Fck.

I dont see value in fck even they are favorites but i think over 2,5 is a good choice, i have a bet on that, Silkeborg is good offensive at home and fck have had a great offensive play this spring, fck have good technical players who will do great on the artifical grass i presume, Silkeborgs defence is not good, they let in many goals, FCK's defence have been good but last time, against bottomteam Helsingør, they let in 3 goals, they had 3rd goalkeeper in goal i know and he didn't do well. 1th goalkeeper Robin Olsen is still out, 2nd. goalkeeper Stefan Andersen could return, i'm not sure what status is right now.
The last 2 meetings in Silkeborg have ended with over 2,5 goals and i believe we see that again.
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