Dafabet Masters 14.1.-21.1.2018

Macot · 24-12-17, 14:38

This is a thread for Masters, one of the Big Three Snooker tournaments (the other two being UK Championship and of course World Championship).
GL all!

Macot · 24-12-17, 14:39

This is Wiserthanthecrowd`s pick from the other thread:

BTW, last but not least, I've already checked the odds for the upcoming Masters and taken my first bets. The one I really like is:

Mark Allan to beat Luca Brecel (-1.5) @ 2.1

Mark Allan has had a very good season and he's been making big breaks. I've been quite impressed with his performances. He's beaten some of the top players this season like Neil Robertson and Judd Trump. I think he could make a deep run at this tournament. Luca Brecel did win the China Championship early in the season but from then on he's been on a downhill slope. His recent results have been quite poor and he is apparently harboring a shoulder injury which may take time to recover and will put him out of action. To date, Mark Allan has comfortably won all 3 h2h matches and I am expecting the same again.

Macot · 11-01-18, 22:07

So, the big competition, one of the "Big three" of snooker is approaching. Here are bookies odds, this is a serious chance to win.
Frustrations from Championship League are past and I expect good picks by Wiser and by myself and all of you are welcome to join!
GL

14 Jan 2018 1 2 B's
13:00 Selby M. - Williams M. 1.45 2.71
40
19:00 Allen M. - Brecel L. 1.66 2.20
40
15 Jan 2018 1 2 B's
13:00 Ding J. - Day R. 1.50 2.55
42
19:00 Trump J. - Liang W. 1.36 3.12
39
16 Jan 2018 1 2 B's
13:00 O'Sullivan R. - Fu M. 1.26 3.84
39
19:00 Hawkins B. - Wilson K. 1.79 2.01
39
17 Jan 2018 1 2 B's
13:00 Murphy S. - Carter A. 1.48 2.63
40
19:00 Higgins J. - McGill A. 1.30 3.50
39

WiserthantheCrowd · 12-01-18, 22:29

A while ago (after the NI Open), I took Mark Williams E/W at 66. I'm also thinking about taking Ronnie O'Sullivan outright at 3.5 or 4. He's certainly got an easier draw than the players in the bottom half. And, of course, Ronny has a great record in this competition. He takes this competition very seriously and he's won 3 out of the 4 last contests. This year he ca make history by becoming the 2nd player after Stephen Hendry to make it 3 in a row in this competition. Although the odds are low, I think there is value in taking Ronnie for the win at 4.

On Sunday we've got Selby versus Mark Williams. Selby looked good at the Championship League but Mark Williams has been practicing hard and apparently made 2 consecutive 147's in practice recently. I think that Selby should be favored here but not by a big margin - those 2 have an even h2h (15 each) including in the 2 matches they played this year. It might be worthwhile considering over 9.5 frames at 2.1 in this match. I'm not sold on that bet but I am considering it.

In the 2nd match on Sunday, we've got Luca Brecel vs. Mark Allen. Mark Allen has looked very consistent this season and gave a good rendition at the Championship League. Luca Brecel started faltering toward the end of last year plus there was a shoulder injury and then a flu that negatively impacted him (in qualifying for the German Masters). Mark Allen has a good record in this competition and in 9 appearances, he's only exited twice in the first round (both times against Neil Robertson). Mark has also got a great h2h against Luca Brecel although their 3 matches were played in 2014/15 before Luca's breakthrough so that they aren't that authoritative. Nonetheless, I am still inclined to go with the more experienced Mark Allen against the debutant and am sticking with my bet: Mark Allen to beat Luca Brecel (-1.5) @ 2.1.

Looking ahead at the other matches, I like Barry Hawkins to beat Kyren Wilson. Hawkins was in a bit of a slump toward the end of last year but based on his performance at the Championship League, Barry Hawkins seems to be back on track and he won 3 of the 4 matches these 2 played at the Champions League recently. Given their current form, I'd favor Barry Hawkins. Otherwise, I think Shaun Murphy will get past Ali Carter while Higgins will beat McGill. I'd consider the HC in both of those matches.

On Monday we've got Ryan Day versus Ding Junhui. Ding Junhui looked very poor toward the end of the year and apparently had eye problems. But based on his more recent results, I have a feeling that he's past that now. And I wasn't really impressed with Ryan Day at the Championship League. Of course, none of the players really take the Championship League very seriously but if Ding plays the way he used to (and right now I am inclined to think so) then the odds are set right.

Good luck!

Macot · 13-01-18, 23:41

A agree on Allen and I see a tight encounter between Selby and Williams. These are my picks on the main site:

2018-01-14 14:00 Mark Selby vs Mark Williams >9.5 10 2.15 Macot

2018-01-14 20:00 Mark Allen (-1,5) AH vs Luka Brecel Latest added pick H 10 2.10 Macot

GL all!

Macot · 14-01-18, 13:46

Mark Williams 2-0 up, that can be good, but of course Selby must step up now.

WiserthantheCrowd · 14-01-18, 14:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macot

Mark Williams 2-0 up, that can be good, but of course Selby must step up now.

I took Selby in live betting - could not resist. Mark Williams potting some nice balls but also making unforced sloppy errors. Selby looks more high-scoring and consistent. I expect him to pull through at this rate. 6-3 or 6-4 would be my call.

Macot · 14-01-18, 14:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macot

Mark Williams 2-0 up, that can be good, but of course Selby must step up now.

2-2 now, perfect.

Macot · 14-01-18, 14:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd

I took Selby in live betting - could not resist. Mark Williams potting some nice balls but also making unforced sloppy errors. Selby looks more high-scoring and consistent. I expect him to pull through at this rate. 6-3 or 6-4 would be my call.

You did well. Yes, that is a typical Williams, silly mistakes and on the other side, fantastic breaks.

Macot · 14-01-18, 15:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macot

2-2 now, perfect.

3-3 now, I need one more frame by both players and over is won.
Also, Selby dominates, it was one mistake which brought Williams back into things, so Wiser`s pick looks good, to. Odds were surely very strong at 0-2 behind, I guess around @2,8

Macot · 14-01-18, 16:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macot

3-3 now, I need one more frame by both players and over is won.
Also, Selby dominates, it was one mistake which brought Williams back into things, so Wiser`s pick looks good, to. Odds were surely very strong at 0-2 behind, I guess around @2,8

5-4, over won! Now one more frame by Selby and we will have a nice start.
And in the evening we will both follow Allen!

WiserthantheCrowd · 14-01-18, 16:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macot

3-3 now, I need one more frame by both players and over is won.
Also, Selby dominates, it was one mistake which brought Williams back into things, so Wiser`s pick looks good, to. Odds were surely very strong at 0-2 behind, I guess around @2,8

Good guess. 2.75. You won. Nice!

I'd be surprised if Selby doesn't make it.

WiserthantheCrowd · 14-01-18, 17:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd

Good guess. 2.75. You won. Nice!

I'd be surprised if Selby doesn't make it.

Selby made an unforced error in the 9th frame. Mark Williams rallied from 5-3 down to win 6-5. Overall Selby played well. Notwithstanding some early errors, Mark Williams played great. I really can't complain about the result...

Let's see how far Mark Williams will go. Next up for him in the QF is probably Hawkins then Shaun Murphy or Judd Trump in the SF. He's got good h2h records against Hawkins and Murphy but has lost 9 consecutive matches in 2016 and 2017 against Trump.

Macot · 14-01-18, 19:03

Loool Dennis Taylor you mug, he presented MArk Allen as Mark Williams

Macot · 14-01-18, 19:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd

Selby made an unforced error in the 9th frame. Mark Williams rallied from 5-3 down to win 6-5. Overall Selby played well. Notwithstanding some early errors, Mark Williams played great. I really can't complain about the result...

Let's see how far Mark Williams will go. Next up for him in the QF is probably Hawkins then Shaun Murphy or Judd Trump in the SF. He's got good h2h records against Hawkins and Murphy but has lost 9 consecutive matches in 2016 and 2017 against Trump.

You were very unlucky today, it really looked Selby will win 6-3, but then missed at the end and Williams came from bhind.
Tough to say what wo expect from him though, we will see.
Allen started with a 4 points foul and a sitter for Brecel, lets hope this does not turn wrong too.

Dulle Rocco · 14-01-18, 19:24

Brecel 1:0hmm

Macot · 14-01-18, 19:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dulle Rocco

Brecel 1:0hmm

Yes, Allen started like ****, but there is enough time for him to start delivering. We will see.

Macot · 14-01-18, 21:06

Damned Allen donated the 6th frame and instead of 4-2 it is 3-3 now...

WiserthantheCrowd · 14-01-18, 21:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macot

Damned Allen donated the 6th frame and instead of 4-2 it is 3-3 now...

Damn. We still have a chance though...

Macot · 14-01-18, 21:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd

Damn. We still have a chance though...

But Allen`s safety play today is a disaster, terrible... really.

Macot · 14-01-18, 21:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macot

But Allen`s safety play today is a disaster, terrible... really.

Very very lucky 4-3 now, I hope he wins the next one now!

Macot · 14-01-18, 21:42

My picks for tomorrow are now on the main site.

http://www.bettingadvice.com/league/general-picks/120

2018-01-15 14:00 Ding Junhui vs Ryan Day A 10 2.50 Macot

2018-01-15 20:00 Judd Trump (-2,5) AH vs Liang Wenbo H 10 2.20 Macot

WiserthantheCrowd · 14-01-18, 21:45

Must say from his demeanor, Brecel looks more at ease.

WiserthantheCrowd · 14-01-18, 21:56

First visit for Brecel at Ally Pally. He'll be coming back many times. Could well be a regular for the next 2 or 3 decades.

Looking good for Allen now. 5-3.

Macot · 14-01-18, 22:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd

First visit for Brecel at Ally Pally. He'll be coming back many times. Could well be a regular for the next 2 or 3 decades.

Looking good for Allen now. 5-3.

Yes at the end, he sealed to the victory pretty easily, with a century in the last frame! 6-3 and really good start to the masters for us. This is a real competition, not that silly Championship League ****.

WiserthantheCrowd · 14-01-18, 23:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by Macot

My picks for tomorrow are now on the main site.

http://www.bettingadvice.com/league/general-picks/120

2018-01-15 14:00 Ding Junhui vs Ryan Day A 10 2.50 Macot

2018-01-15 20:00 Judd Trump (-2,5) AH vs Liang Wenbo H 10 2.20 Macot

I won't be taking Ryan Day but I am thinking of taking Ding -1.5 at 2. Ding was faltering toward the end of last year due to an eye operation. The low point came when he lost to Fernandez. Since then, however, I've seen signs of improvement and my feeling is that he's back on track and has used the Christmas break to practice hard. Ryan Day hasn't played at Ally Pally before and in the 4 occasions he made it to The Masters (in the previous decade) he only beat Joe Perry - he's got no pedigree in this competition and I see no reason to assume that this year will be different. Ding is a regular at The Masters and won it once as well as being a finalist on another occasion. If Ding is back to his usual self which I assume he is, then he should have no problems with Ryan Day (but I might, of course, be wrong here and Ding is not passed his health problems). As I wrote earlier, Ryan Day didn't impress me at all at the Championship League. One should not read too much into that competition because the players don't take that one very seriously but still. I just don't see value in taking Ryan Day for the win.

I think that Trump will beat Wenbo 6-3 or 6-4 so that your HC could be covered. I am not sure that I will take the HC on that one. It seems priced right so no bet for me.

Good luck!

WiserthantheCrowd · 15-01-18, 13:28

Maybe he needs to get settled but what I have seen in the 1st frame from Ryan Day does not inspire confidence. He's continuing with the same poor form we saw at the Championship League. At this rate, Ding should cover the HC.

WiserthantheCrowd · 15-01-18, 17:22

Ding, ding, ding... It's been a good Day. Congrats, Macot! Ryan Day won.

I can't figure out how he won. I watched the first 3 frames and they both didn't play well but Ding was marginally better and went up 3-0. I then thought this contest wasn't competitive but in the end Ding lost 6-4. I watched the last few frames and Ding made a couple of very basic unforced errors. In 1 frame, he was leading and about to score the winner, when he leaned over and touched another ball and was penalized. In another frame, he failed to pot a very easy ball. During the match, he kept on rubbing his eyes and his long potting wasn't that good so maybe he still does have problems with his eyes. It's obviously compounded by a lack of confidence but there may be a medical problem underlying it.

Anyway, I think that Ryan Day will exit in the next round and by a significant margin. He and Ding both are not at the same level as the competition.

Macot · 15-01-18, 17:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd

Ding, ding, ding... It's been a good Day. Congrats, Macot! Ryan Day won.

I can't figure out how he won. I watched the first 3 frames and they both didn't play well but Ding was marginally better and went up 3-0. I then thought this contest wasn't competitive but in the end Ding lost 6-4. I watched the last few frames and Ding made a couple of very basic unforced errors. In 1 frame, he was leading and about to score the winner, when he leaned over and touched another ball and was penalized. In another frame, he failed to pot a very easy ball. During the match, he kept on rubbing his eyes and his long potting wasn't that good so maybe he still does have problems with his eyes. It's obviously compounded by a lack of confidence but there may be a medical problem underlying it.

Anyway, I think that Ryan Day will exit in the next round and by a significant margin. He and Ding both are not at the same level as the competition.

I agree, Day is not backable against strong oponent. But Ding still did not show nothing, no matter what the problem is and that is going on for ages. So, I will go mainly against him in the future, too.
But now I am really curious what Trump will show. Will he play like he can? Then we have 6-1... or will he once again lose his cool and if so, he can even lose.

Macot · 15-01-18, 19:27

It sounds incredible, but the first frame could already decide this match.... incredible what Trump did, never saw such a clearance, he manage several incredible shots to win the frame bya 1 point and steal what looked a certain frame for Wenbo!!