Those who know me from basketball topics pretty much know how I bet by now.
Basically what I do is at the end of the day in the NBA I'll check the games that are scheduled for the following day and plan my bets.
Some odds are occasionally available early so if I see value and the limits are ok I will bet early. If not I will write down my own odds for the matches of interest and wait for the market to come out.
Again, when this happens I will bet if I see value and skip if I don't.
I believe most of us do so.
However there are some cases that are rather specific for the NBA. Some teams will rest their older players on back-to-backs, some teams that are not interested in winning games will shut down their best players even if they only have minor injuries etc...
There are of course 'regular' injuries that happen normally like in every other sport.
This info is rarely available very early but if you're in the "game" long enough you can pretty much anticipate the coaches' moves.
In that case you wait for the info/lineups/missings to be confirmed and if it matches your expectations you take the bet you planned to take.
So I will give two examples.
Example one:
31/03 Detroit vs Atlanta
Atlanta was on a back-to-back, didn't really need to win the game and the world expected them to rest their stars and lose the game.
Opening odds were ~1.50 on Detroit and ~2.50 on Atlanta.
I had reason to believe that Atlanta will play this match with full squad and planned to bet on them @ 2.50-3.00 as soon as I got the confirmation that their best players will be available.
That pretty much means I was on Twitter all night refreshing feeds from journalists who follow the team waiting for their updates.
The confirmation that Atlanta will have all players available came around an hour before the match start, the odds at that time were ~1.30 on Detroit and ~3.00 on Atlanta.
As soon as I got the info I placed bets at various bookies: bet365, Gamebookers, Pinnacle and Betsson. The stakes were split according to either limits on my accounts or value in the available odds.
I had placed a total of around a thousand euros, perhaps a bit more but I don't remember exactly.
250 euros was placed on Atlanta ML @ 2.80 at Betsson.
Of course some 5-10 minutes later the rest of the world reacted to the news and the odds changed to ~2.10 on Detroit and ~1.70 on Atlanta.
Detroit won the game 105-95 and covered every spread from early -5 to -6.5 later to +2 just before tipoff. I lost all my bets.
I had no problem with this, can't win them all. Main thing for me is that I played it right, got great odds and value and that's all that matters on the long run.
Example two:
12/04 Washington vs Atlanta
You know the story by now, it was very similar.
Washington's best player John Wall was questionable (I expected him to play) while it was not known if Atlanta's starters would be rested (I expected them to be rested).
Opening odds were ~1.90 on Washington and ~1.90 on Atlanta.
I placed my early bets at Marathonbet and Pinnacle but not high stakes because I still wanted to get a confirmation about Wall and Atlanta's missings.
Again, this confirmation came about an hour before the match. Wall would play, Atlanta's starters would not.
I went on to place 600 euros on Washington ML @ 1.78 at Betsson and another 400 euros on Washington -2 @ 1.91.
Other bookies were quick to react so I could not bet more although I wanted to. Going through the bookies' sites took around 10-15 minutes and at that time they all adjusted their odds to ~1.20 on Washington and ~4.50 on Atlanta.
However oddsportal was showing that Betsson still has the same odds so I went on to deposit another 500 euros and place 250 on Washington ML @ 1.78 and another 250 on Washington -2 @ 1.91
Minutes later I got the following e-mail from Betsson:
Last two of my bets (250 on Was ML @ 1.78 and 250 on Was -2 @ 1.91) were voided. This all happened BEFORE the match started.
I really had no problem with this, I understood that their software may have been late and thought it was OK to void my bets. I withdrew the money back to my Skrill account.
I checked my bet history and the first two bets I placed (600 on Was ML @ 1.78 and 400 on Was -2 @ 1.91) were still pending.
This is normal of course because both were placed before any market moves.
Washington went on to win the match 108-99 and cover all spreads from opening 0 to -8.5 just before tipoff.
I had 1832 euros in my account and withdrew everything to Skrill.
Other bookies also settled my bets as won and paid out the winnings.
When I woke up I saw two other e-mails from Betsson, sent at 09:26 AM, 9 hours and 26 minutes AFTER the match started telling me they voided my bets because of incorrect odds.
My account balance was -832 (MINUS 832 euros).
to be continued...
Basically what I do is at the end of the day in the NBA I'll check the games that are scheduled for the following day and plan my bets.
Some odds are occasionally available early so if I see value and the limits are ok I will bet early. If not I will write down my own odds for the matches of interest and wait for the market to come out.
Again, when this happens I will bet if I see value and skip if I don't.
I believe most of us do so.
However there are some cases that are rather specific for the NBA. Some teams will rest their older players on back-to-backs, some teams that are not interested in winning games will shut down their best players even if they only have minor injuries etc...
There are of course 'regular' injuries that happen normally like in every other sport.
This info is rarely available very early but if you're in the "game" long enough you can pretty much anticipate the coaches' moves.
In that case you wait for the info/lineups/missings to be confirmed and if it matches your expectations you take the bet you planned to take.
So I will give two examples.
Example one:
31/03 Detroit vs Atlanta
Atlanta was on a back-to-back, didn't really need to win the game and the world expected them to rest their stars and lose the game.
Opening odds were ~1.50 on Detroit and ~2.50 on Atlanta.
I had reason to believe that Atlanta will play this match with full squad and planned to bet on them @ 2.50-3.00 as soon as I got the confirmation that their best players will be available.
That pretty much means I was on Twitter all night refreshing feeds from journalists who follow the team waiting for their updates.
The confirmation that Atlanta will have all players available came around an hour before the match start, the odds at that time were ~1.30 on Detroit and ~3.00 on Atlanta.
As soon as I got the info I placed bets at various bookies: bet365, Gamebookers, Pinnacle and Betsson. The stakes were split according to either limits on my accounts or value in the available odds.
I had placed a total of around a thousand euros, perhaps a bit more but I don't remember exactly.
250 euros was placed on Atlanta ML @ 2.80 at Betsson.
Of course some 5-10 minutes later the rest of the world reacted to the news and the odds changed to ~2.10 on Detroit and ~1.70 on Atlanta.
Detroit won the game 105-95 and covered every spread from early -5 to -6.5 later to +2 just before tipoff. I lost all my bets.
I had no problem with this, can't win them all. Main thing for me is that I played it right, got great odds and value and that's all that matters on the long run.
Example two:
12/04 Washington vs Atlanta
You know the story by now, it was very similar.
Washington's best player John Wall was questionable (I expected him to play) while it was not known if Atlanta's starters would be rested (I expected them to be rested).
Opening odds were ~1.90 on Washington and ~1.90 on Atlanta.
I placed my early bets at Marathonbet and Pinnacle but not high stakes because I still wanted to get a confirmation about Wall and Atlanta's missings.
Again, this confirmation came about an hour before the match. Wall would play, Atlanta's starters would not.
I went on to place 600 euros on Washington ML @ 1.78 at Betsson and another 400 euros on Washington -2 @ 1.91.
Other bookies were quick to react so I could not bet more although I wanted to. Going through the bookies' sites took around 10-15 minutes and at that time they all adjusted their odds to ~1.20 on Washington and ~4.50 on Atlanta.
However oddsportal was showing that Betsson still has the same odds so I went on to deposit another 500 euros and place 250 on Washington ML @ 1.78 and another 250 on Washington -2 @ 1.91
Minutes later I got the following e-mail from Betsson:
Dear x,
unfortunately we had to void your bet on the market Washington Wizards - Atlanta Hawks and the odds for this selection have been set to 1.00.
This void occurred because the wrong odds were inserted.
Kind regards,
Betsson.com Sportsbook
unfortunately we had to void your bet on the market Washington Wizards - Atlanta Hawks and the odds for this selection have been set to 1.00.
This void occurred because the wrong odds were inserted.
Kind regards,
Betsson.com Sportsbook
I really had no problem with this, I understood that their software may have been late and thought it was OK to void my bets. I withdrew the money back to my Skrill account.
I checked my bet history and the first two bets I placed (600 on Was ML @ 1.78 and 400 on Was -2 @ 1.91) were still pending.
This is normal of course because both were placed before any market moves.
Washington went on to win the match 108-99 and cover all spreads from opening 0 to -8.5 just before tipoff.
I had 1832 euros in my account and withdrew everything to Skrill.
Other bookies also settled my bets as won and paid out the winnings.
When I woke up I saw two other e-mails from Betsson, sent at 09:26 AM, 9 hours and 26 minutes AFTER the match started telling me they voided my bets because of incorrect odds.
My account balance was -832 (MINUS 832 euros).
to be continued...
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