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Italian soccer
Discuss picks and analysis in the Italian leagues here. Italy A, Italy B and C.
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Old 13-12-17, 05:42   #1
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Default Italy Serie A 16-17 December 2017

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Old 13-12-17, 19:22   #2
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Good odds on solid Torino, Napoli in big problems last round with Fiorentina and not in best moment. Insigne probably out. Other matches, I don't trust Inter, they have too many points, Juve will probably pass Bologna but not sure about handicap. Small stake on Crotone and Benevento, they should be favorites in home ground.
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Old 15-12-17, 10:55   #3
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Serie A has officially given Ciro Immobile a one-match ban for his headbutt during Lazio's 3-1 defeat to Torino on monday 11th december. The leading goal scorer will now miss Lazio's next Serie A game against Atalanta on Sunday Night Game.

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Old 17-12-17, 09:06   #4
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How will Lazio perform without Ciro Immobile? 15 goals and 6 assists in the Serie A so far, making him somehow responsible for over 50% of all goals of Lazio - 36. Caicedo scored the winning goal in Genoa (vs Samp) two weeks ago but I'm not quite sure about his ability... Maybe Atalanta Asian Handicap 0 (DNB) ?

Also, I think that Milan will have a difficult game in Verona so the odds on "Under 3 Goals" look fine to me - 1.75 @ BetVictor. Milan won 3-0 for the Coppa Italia just a few days ago but I'm pretty sure Verona's main priority is the Calcio.
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Old 17-12-17, 09:47   #5
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Sampdoria-0.5 @ 2.00 looks good Imho.

The "Blucerchiati" have lost some momentum lately, but attack is in lethal form since the start of the season with Fabio Quagliarella (9 goals) and Duvan Zapata (6 goals). On the other hand, Sassuolo hold one of the worst defensive records in Serie A in away games.
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Old 17-12-17, 09:48   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bangelov View Post
How will Lazio perform without Ciro Immobile? 15 goals and 6 assists in the Serie A so far, making him somehow responsible for over 50% of all goals of Lazio - 36. Caicedo scored the winning goal in Genoa (vs Samp) two weeks ago but I'm not quite sure about his ability... Maybe Atalanta Asian Handicap 0 (DNB) ?

Also, I think that Milan will have a difficult game in Verona so the odds on "Under 3 Goals" look fine to me - 1.75 @ BetVictor. Milan won 3-0 for the Coppa Italia just a few days ago but I'm pretty sure Verona's main priority is the Calcio.
Mate, how do you think about Sampdoria win @ 1.97 ?
it's too delicious and make me wonder ...
Samp play very well at home, they even scored more than Napoli and Roma. While,Sassuolo version Cristian Bucchi is far away when compare with Di Francesco era.
A bookie trap .... ???
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Old 17-12-17, 09:56   #7
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They are way better on paper but I don't trust them somehow. Just look at their latest Serie A results - a 3:0 loss in BOlogna, leading 0:2 and then 2:2 in Cagliari last round and the comeback vs Lazio. Of course, two of these games were on the road but I wouldn't bet on Sampdoria in this situation and I won't be surprised if that's a trap, as you mentioned.
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Old 17-12-17, 09:59   #8
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Personally, I don't understand odds movement on Sampdoria - Sassuolo (home win was 1.65 and now is about 2). My model predict comfort win for Sampa, they are not that bad when you consider everything.
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Old 17-12-17, 12:42   #9
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Quote:
They are way better on paper but I don't trust them somehow.
I don't trust Sampdoria either.
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Old 17-12-17, 13:08   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Versace View Post
Mate, how do you think about Sampdoria win @ 1.97 ?
it's too delicious and make me wonder ...
Samp play very well at home, they even scored more than Napoli and Roma. While,Sassuolo version Cristian Bucchi is far away when compare with Di Francesco era.
A bookie trap .... ???
Bucchi has been sacked two weeks ago, it's Iacchini in charge now. Agree it's a bit strange to see odds this high on Samp (and going up) basing on what we've seen so far. I would assume market expects Sasso to improve gradually after changing coach, same as Udinese and Cagliari did. Odds on over 2.75 look appealing too Sasso being good on counters and Samp always playing attacking football.
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Old 17-12-17, 13:24   #11
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We will see the managerial change at Milan now... 0-3 at Verona must be the last straw... I mean if they brought Gattuso for that then they better forget about any sginificant success
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Old 17-12-17, 13:48   #12
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We will see the managerial change at Milan now... 0-3 at Verona must be the last straw... I mean if they brought Gattuso for that then they better forget about any sginificant success
Gattuso is surely no Mourinho or Pep, but hard to blame him for all the mess he inherited. The club made so many mistakes last summer, they will need a lot of time to make things right.
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Old 17-12-17, 15:48   #13
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and at the end, bangelov and sc28 had right and Sampdoria is not a trustable team right now, they are in a horrible moment and it was a bookie trap. Silly of me I really thought that they were going to win today and it was a great odd, what a disaster
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Old 17-12-17, 15:49   #14
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You know what amazes me still to this day? How it is that no one gives a sh*t about matches like Sampdoria - Sassuolo for years. I watched the game and it is shameful how Sampdoria players played this match. All of the second half, defenders was trying with long balls and giving ball to sassuolo. And when you look at their head to head, you can find HT FT 2/1 between them, and odds for this match speaks for themselves. Should one today only bet on matches from Premier League and expect that there is no fixing involved or what?
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Old 17-12-17, 16:00   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bangelov View Post
They are way better on paper but I don't trust them somehow. Just look at their latest Serie A results - a 3:0 loss in BOlogna, leading 0:2 and then 2:2 in Cagliari last round and the comeback vs Lazio. Of course, two of these games were on the road but I wouldn't bet on Sampdoria in this situation and I won't be surprised if that's a trap, as you mentioned.
It's pretty naive to trust a Genoese club (either Sampdoria or Genoa) nowadays. I personally had a few disappointments betting on both clubs through the years and in my opinion it's more reliable to bet on Sampdoria in the "big games", or when they're not in a position of being an underdog. Everything was going good for them and I decided to trust them when they played vs Bologna couple of weeks ago, but after their performance and lack of any determination in that game... no thanks.
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Old 17-12-17, 16:02   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petarz View Post
You know what amazes me still to this day? How it is that no one gives a sh*t about matches like Sampdoria - Sassuolo for years. I watched the game and it is shameful how Sampdoria players played this match. All of the second half, defenders was trying with long balls and giving ball to sassuolo. And when you look at their head to head, you can find HT FT 2/1 between them, and odds for this match speaks for themselves. Should one today only bet on matches from Premier League and expect that there is no fixing involved or what?
Well, betting on Premier League is a massive trap again, in my opinion. Half of the teams there are very unpredictable and there is a huge cooperation between clubs and the UK-licensed bookies. They can easily manipulate games, I suppose. Just for example - Stoke City, a club playing at "bet365 stadium" and managed by the local company. I can't be sure they're fixing games but we can be suspicious when making our bets, at least.
Same goes for Italy and other popular leagues.
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Old 17-12-17, 16:11   #17
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Quote:
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Well, betting on Premier League is a massive trap again, in my opinion. Half of the teams there are very unpredictable and there is a huge cooperation between clubs and the UK-licensed bookies. They can easily manipulate games, I suppose. Just for example - Stoke City, a club playing at "bet365 stadium" and managed by the local company. I can't be sure they're fixing games but we can be suspicious when making our bets, at least.
Same goes for Italy and other popular leagues.
Agree
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Old 17-12-17, 16:35   #18
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Samp-mafia. Can not imagine the 6th team play like that. I recovered a bit with FT2. after Sasso missed a penalty. Nevertouch the odds like this again. Hic
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Old 17-12-17, 16:44   #19
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and check Fiorentina clear favourite playing at home against Genoa, same history
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Old 17-12-17, 19:42   #20
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How will Lazio perform without Ciro Immobile? 15 goals and 6 assists in the Serie A so far, making him somehow responsible for over 50% of all goals of Lazio - 36. Caicedo scored the winning goal in Genoa (vs Samp) two weeks ago but I'm not quite sure about his ability... Maybe Atalanta Asian Handicap 0 (DNB) ?

I watched Atalanta against Genoa and Benevento and I can say that today just home venue is anything worth for him. Ilicic has no condition for 90 +min and Atalanta style of game is depend on him. If Lazio will make a good job on him then is half of the job done. I see a draw but If Atalanta play like against Benevento then even without Immobile can Lazio surpise.
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Old 17-12-17, 19:52   #21
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and check Fiorentina clear favourite playing at home against Genoa, same history
Yes, agree again. Also many others, and I think that officials know, but it seems that they couldn't care less. And then you heard about shocking match fixing in lower leagues..
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Old 17-12-17, 22:21   #22
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[B]I watched Atalanta against Genoa and Benevento and I can say that today just home venue is anything worth for him. Ilicic has no condition for 90 +min and Atalanta style of game is depend on him. If Lazio will make a good job on him then is half of the job done. I see a draw but If Atalanta play like against Benevento then even without Immobile can Lazio surpise.
Great match at the end well deserved draw for Lazio because they almost beat themselves.
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