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UEFA Europa League


UEFA Europa League
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Old 06-12-17, 22:09   #1
Miccho
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Default Hoffenheim-Ludogorets

Big value on the Bulgarian team. They need a draw to go through, while Hoffe is out of the tournament.

The Germans declared they will give a rest to many of their regulars. This is what Hoffenheim coach said: "We will give chance to many young and hungry players, some of whom will go out for the first time in official game".

Ludogorets is fully motivated here and they have much experience in Europe. I think they should be favorites even against the regulars of Hoffenheim in a game, where the home team will lack motivation. And against a heavily mixed squad, Ludo shoul win it.

I think Ludo odds here should be 1.90-2.0 and Ludo DNB should not be higher than 1.40

Ludo 0AH @ 2.0
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Old 06-12-17, 22:54   #2
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Ludogorets are really motivated and Hoffenheim's coach is expected to field a mix between rotation players and youngsters. After a 4:0 win over RB Leipzig, they have an upcoming match against Hannover who are doing well so far and all main players of Hoffenheim will be rested for the weekend round. A positive score there will surely climb them into top 4. However, we shouldn't underestimate Hoffenheim's youngsters and players who are eager to prove. We all know how German football works and how much they rely on youngsters. I expect goals in Sinsheim.

Possible starting XIs: (I'm pretty sure about Ludogorets but Hoffe's coach may surprise us even more)

Hoffenheim: Oliver Baumann – Justin Hoogma, Stefan Posch, Havard Nordtveit – Dennis Geiger – Felix Passlack, Eugen Polanski, Florian Grillitsch, Nico Schulz – Andrej Kramaric, Robin Hack.

Ludogorets: Renan – Natanael, Cosmin Moti, Igor Plastun, Cicinho – Anicet, Jacek Goralski – Wanderson, Marcelinho, Jody Lukoki – Virgil Misidjan.

More about the game for all interested: Hoffenheim vs Ludogorets Razgrad

Pick 1: Both teams to score & Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 2.05 @ NetBet
Stake: (5/10)

Pick 2: Marcelinho - Anytime Goalscorer
Odds: 4.30 @ NetBet
Stake: (2/10)

Marcelinho is the most experienced and important player of Ludogorets. He scored five goals in the last 5 games he played, including the two goals of Ludogorets in their home games vs Braga and Istanbul Basaksehir. The 33-years-old Brazilian hints to be in a fine form so I believe that currently suggested odds on Marcelinho are worth to place a small stake bet.
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Old 07-12-17, 09:34   #3
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Update - Hoffenheim's possible lineup according to Kicker:

Gregor Kobel - Justin Hoogma, Ermin Bicakcic, Havard Nordtveit - Eugen Polanski - Felix Passlack, Robert Zulj, Johannes Bόhler, Philipp Ochs - Meris Skenderovic, Robin Hack. (3-1-4-2)
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Old 07-12-17, 12:12   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bangelov View Post
Ludogorets are really motivated and Hoffenheim's coach is expected to field a mix between rotation players and youngsters. After a 4:0 win over RB Leipzig, they have an upcoming match against Hannover who are doing well so far and all main players of Hoffenheim will be rested for the weekend round. A positive score there will surely climb them into top 4. However, we shouldn't underestimate Hoffenheim's youngsters and players who are eager to prove. We all know how German football works and how much they rely on youngsters. I expect goals in Sinsheim.

Possible starting XIs: (I'm pretty sure about Ludogorets but Hoffe's coach may surprise us even more)

Hoffenheim: Oliver Baumann – Justin Hoogma, Stefan Posch, Havard Nordtveit – Dennis Geiger – Felix Passlack, Eugen Polanski, Florian Grillitsch, Nico Schulz – Andrej Kramaric, Robin Hack.

Ludogorets: Renan – Natanael, Cosmin Moti, Igor Plastun, Cicinho – Anicet, Jacek Goralski – Wanderson, Marcelinho, Jody Lukoki – Virgil Misidjan.

More about the game for all interested: Hoffenheim vs Ludogorets Razgrad

Pick 1: Both teams to score & Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 2.05 @ NetBet
Stake: (5/10)

Pick 2: Marcelinho - Anytime Goalscorer
Odds: 4.30 @ NetBet
Stake: (2/10)

Marcelinho is the most experienced and important player of Ludogorets. He scored five goals in the last 5 games he played, including the two goals of Ludogorets in their home games vs Braga and Istanbul Basaksehir. The 33-years-old Brazilian hints to be in a fine form so I believe that currently suggested odds on Marcelinho are worth to place a small stake bet.
I'm very skeptical about Overs. Yeah Germans won't sit back and wait for the game to end but won't Ludo try and slow the tempo whenever they can? Are you backing Over because you are certain that Hoff. will score even with their youngsters on pitch?

I lean towards Ludo x2 btw.
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Old 07-12-17, 12:15   #5
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I'm just saying that Ludogorets are not that solid at the back as it looks, Yes, they haven't conceded yet in both previous visits, that's also true. But the players were not so happy with Hero's approach in the home match against Istanbul Basaksehir. It's just not their style and I sincerely believe sooner or later they will have a conflict with the coach.
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Old 07-12-17, 12:22   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bangelov View Post
I'm just saying that Ludogorets are not that solid at the back as it looks, Yes, they haven't conceded yet in both previous visits, that's also true. But the players were not so happy with Hero's approach in the home match against Istanbul Basaksehir. It's just not their style and I sincerely believe sooner or later they will have a conflict with the coach.
Ludogorets conceded 0 goals in their two visits in Europa League so far. It does not look at all like "they are not solid in the back". Ludo coach got criticized, because he played very passive at home vs the second team of Basaksehir in a game, where they could have sealed qualification.

I don't see much logic in backing goals when the home team will heavily rotate (and lack motivation), while Ludo will qualify even with a draw. In my eyes this is 0:1 or 0:2
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Old 07-12-17, 12:28   #7
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Just don't forget that's the team which did all great performances against Braga and Hoffenheim (first leg), but also lost to Vereya only one week ago, was completely outplayed from 10 men of CSKA Sofia, and also conceded against teams like Oborishte and Septemvri Sofia early in the season. I also watched most league games of Ludogorets and they were certainly lucky to not concede in most occasions...
And why do you believe Hoffenheim doesn't have motivation? All youngsters will be eager to prove, that's Germany, not Bulgaria, where players will play just to post a photo in Instagram while playing in the Europa League.
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Old 07-12-17, 12:36   #8
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I'm also skeptic regarding over. So far they announced that Ludogorets will start with defensive line and park the bus (it is really very sad...). Possible line is:
Renan, Natanael, Moti, Plastun, Sisinio, Anise, Goralski, Dyakov, Lukoki, Marselinio, Vura

3 defensive midfields Anise, Goralski and Dyakov, no central forward or maybe Vura, but he is not for that position.

If it is true it can be third in line match that Ludogorets coach will complain of bad luck instead of to try to do his job and try to win that game.
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Old 07-12-17, 13:07   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bangelov View Post
Just don't forget that's the team which did all great performances against Braga and Hoffenheim (first leg), but also lost to Vereya only one week ago, was completely outplayed from 10 men of CSKA Sofia, and also conceded against teams like Oborishte and Septemvri Sofia early in the season.
Why do you compare league games with European games? Completely different motivation and mentality. Ludogorets have always played with highest motivation in European games, while often underestimate league games, especially in the first half of the season, while still competing in Europe.

I don't see what a match with Vereya have to do with a European game. Entirely different motivation and game complexion. Ludogorets will be very careful in defense tonight, as they know they neeed a draw. Whenever Ludogorets are very careful in defense, this normally results in low scoring game.
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Old 07-12-17, 13:18   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miccho View Post
Why do you compare league games with European games? Completely different motivation and mentality. Ludogorets have always played with highest motivation in European games, while often underestimate league games, especially in the first half of the season, while still competing in Europe.

I don't see what a match with Vereya have to do with a European game. Entirely different motivation and game complexion. Ludogorets will be very careful in defense tonight, as they know they neeed a draw. Whenever Ludogorets are very careful in defense, this normally results in low scoring game.
Why not go for under 3.5 instead of X2 then? Odds?
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Old 07-12-17, 13:27   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mert K. View Post
Why not go for under 3.5 instead of X2 then? Odds?
Because the odds are low and I believe that there is inherently more "embedded" uncertainty in betting on goals, than betting on 1X2. I have clear reasons to back Ludogorets - lineups, motivation and odds.

Regarding goals, there can be too much uncertainty - what if young and relaxed Hoffe plays too open football and the game finishes 1:3?!
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Old 07-12-17, 13:34   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miccho View Post
Why do you compare league games with European games? Completely different motivation and mentality. Ludogorets have always played with highest motivation in European games, while often underestimate league games, especially in the first half of the season, while still competing in Europe.

I don't see what a match with Vereya have to do with a European game. Entirely different motivation and game complexion. Ludogorets will be very careful in defense tonight, as they know they neeed a draw. Whenever Ludogorets are very careful in defense, this normally results in low scoring game.
I know we normally shouldn't compare league games with these in Europe but let's not forget that Hero looks a bit betrayed, at least in my opinion. All foreigners at Ludogorets were used with a character (or more likely lack of any character) of Georgi Dermendzhiev, while Hero is a completely different personality. It was pity to see Marcelinho complaining from coaching decisions in an interview right after the match against Istanbul. Just think for a moment - is that possible in any professional club? I don't think so... It's obvious that some of the players are not pleased with Hero and his work there, I don't have any idea what's the reason behind that, but there is definitely some. Last but not least, Hero suffered from one of the worst possible cancers (thankfully, he's in a remission) a few years ago, so I'm not so sure how good is for his health to stay in such an atmosphere. He was respected in Kazakhstan and nobody was messing in his work, while we all know there are some "leaders" in Ludogorets who already slipped some of the former coaches there.
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Old 07-12-17, 18:14   #13
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im with bangelov here ... if u expect a german team to just roll on specially at home ure very wrong imo ...

also doing some reasearch i found out hoffe u19 side is cruising through their y group where bayern is ..and watching bayern at YL its clear of their great side ....
http://es.soccerway.com/national/ger...udwest/r41743/
of course it does not mean much but probably they have good y squeme as most german sides ... and locals will probably attend as usual in germany ...

Last edited by litost; 07-12-17 at 18:24.
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Old 07-12-17, 18:16   #14
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im with bangelow here ... if u expect a german team to just roll on spacially at home ure very wrong imo ...

also doing some reasearch i found out hoffe u19 side is cruising through their y group where bayern is ..and watching bayern at YL its clear of their great side ....
http://es.soccerway.com/national/ger...udwest/r41743/
of course it does not mean much but probably they have good y squeme as most german sides ... and locals will probably attend as usual in germany ...
Skipping this one, thanks for all the info. Nice thread!
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