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Old 04-12-17, 21:19   #1
madugu_gorge
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Default Paraguay Primera Division (04/12)



Is there anyone who is more familiar at Paraguay football league? This is the 'next to last' round and three teams are playing tonight to keep their heads above the surface in order to avoid relegation.
I am familiar enough to know that Nacional is one of the biggest clubs in Paraguay and that it would be shocking if they found themselves in Segunda. They will have huge motivation and a huge support I am sure, as they will secure their stay in Primera with 3 points today. They also must keep in mind that they will play an away match against Libertad in last leg, where they will be huge underdogs against one of the top sides, and a big rival who will surely be glad to send them to Segunda. Newly promoted Independiente also won't lack motivation tonight. They are also in a very bad situation, and a lost match here will make them fight in last round against a direct rival for remaining at top division - Rubio Nu.
In these situations, I can't not to back up a significantly bigger club with a huge tradition behind them against such a small club as Independiente is. Call me crazy, but I wouldn't exclude a push Nacional can get from the officials. At least that's how things work in my country, but then again, our football is controlled by the mob...or shall I say, our whole country is controlled by the mob, but that's another story.
All in all, I am backing Nacional here...HW@1.90 (smaller stakes).

Second team I will put some money on is Rubio Nu, HW@1,62
They are not that big club as Nacional is, but for a past decade or two, they were a stable, average Primera side. They are hosting a team that was relegated a long time ago. Usually, the teams that are relegated with several or more games left (like Sportivo Tridense this year) lose their motivation gradually as season is coming to an end. Such a weak side as they showed they are with not much motivation (if any at all), playing an away match against a team that has fire bellow their feet...I can't not to back up the hosts here.

But then again, Paraguay Primera is not really my cup of tea, so if anyone is willing to give advice, please comment
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Old 04-12-17, 22:04   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madugu_gorge View Post


Is there anyone who is more familiar at Paraguay football league? This is the 'next to last' round and three teams are playing tonight to keep their heads above the surface in order to avoid relegation.
I am familiar enough to know that Nacional is one of the biggest clubs in Paraguay and that it would be shocking if they found themselves in Segunda. They will have huge motivation and a huge support I am sure, as they will secure their stay in Primera with 3 points today. They also must keep in mind that they will play an away match against Libertad in last leg, where they will be huge underdogs against one of the top sides, and a big rival who will surely be glad to send them to Segunda. Newly promoted Independiente also won't lack motivation tonight. They are also in a very bad situation, and a lost match here will make them fight in last round against a direct rival for remaining at top division - Rubio Nu.
In these situations, I can't not to back up a significantly bigger club with a huge tradition behind them against such a small club as Independiente is. Call me crazy, but I wouldn't exclude a push Nacional can get from the officials. At least that's how things work in my country, but then again, our football is controlled by the mob...or shall I say, our whole country is controlled by the mob, but that's another story.
All in all, I am backing Nacional here...HW@1.90 (smaller stakes).

Second team I will put some money on is Rubio Nu, HW@1,62
They are not that big club as Nacional is, but for a past decade or two, they were a stable, average Primera side. They are hosting a team that was relegated a long time ago. Usually, the teams that are relegated with several or more games left (like Sportivo Tridense this year) lose their motivation gradually as season is coming to an end. Such a weak side as they showed they are with not much motivation (if any at all), playing an away match against a team that has fire bellow their feet...I can't not to back up the hosts here.

But then again, Paraguay Primera is not really my cup of tea, so if anyone is willing to give advice, please comment


i follow from time to time guarani footie and one thing i learned over years reg this realm is .... if there is any logic behind anything that hapens both on and off pitch i missed it ...

so just beware ... f.i cerro needed a point to earn chsip last game ... they lost ... vs out of race guarani .. u may think ..sheet hapens .. well ive seen this kinda stuff so many times at this league ...

u watch games ..and oh dear .. most lower sa divisions are disgrace in terms of decision making with "canchero" traits ...but this is the worts by far ..even watching bolivia footie makes more sense --- still they promote nice players from time to time no doubt but their two ways games then shoot out wide ever situations are ... wow mind blowin ...

reg tonight i just took under 1 at ht at nacional ... using logic wich is as i said above not way to go but well we are betaholics and must pull trigger couse otherwise it would not be us RIGHT !! --

i agree nacional is that will likely take game ..but u mention they face libertad last game and .. well gumarelo are on holidays allready ..last game vs olimpia with players getting them one week ahead on purpose taks of their motivations...
so its independiente that probably have higher stakes here ... but well nacional is bigger club and may get push i dunno ..... and then its hard to stimate cheese...

reg rubio ñu .. its a local derby .. so if u do not know trinidense motivations its hard to know as well ...its clear anything than win for ñu is not good enough ... but trinitarios spoiled nacional party last game ..who knows ...

id stay way from both games ...if u need to play .. id say

under ht at nacional ...

over ht & over 2 FT at rubio ...


luqueño -.25 may be better shoot later --- they play for sudamericana spot vs allready qualified general ... then again general has way better team feelings and since we do not know their real motivation its hard ...
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Old 04-12-17, 22:11   #3
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Thanks for the analysis. I placed some money on under 3 goals @Nacional - Independiente too with a bit higher stakes. Game of a huge importance for both teams, so one would be crazy to expect an open game and a goal galore.
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Old 04-12-17, 22:53   #4
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lol sorry if i put u off nacional ...

4-0 at ht ... so much for the hight intensity ...

anyways a hint for this league probably only that works ..depends on weather its rainy heat ..or just breeze season i mean ..depend on wetaher what the heck ...

if one team scores ...early ..go for overs .. ..
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Old 04-12-17, 22:56   #5
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now i am not even sure a draw or a win makes a diference for ÑU ... with independiente 99% losing ...

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torneo...2017_(Paraguay)
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Old 04-12-17, 23:02   #6
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actually i just made calculations ..

if ÑU draws this then they need win last game ...

if they win a draw will make them tie at 1,068181818181818 %

not sure who has upper hand then or if there is match between both as it hapens on reg season above ....
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Old 04-12-17, 23:09   #7
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Well, I will still achieve a modest profit if Rubio Nu wins this one, but unfortunately, a win is no longer a 'must do' thing for them. It all comes down to a final round for both Independiente and Rubio Nu where they will play against each other.

EDIT: Ah, yes...they will be equal. I have no idea who has advantage (and why) if that happens.

Last edited by madugu_gorge; 04-12-17 at 23:12.
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Old 04-12-17, 23:23   #8
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yeap hard to know ....

i fired agent asuncion long ago .. the feker was a two ways pimp that used huchies both ways ..bard!!

anyways ..

im on luqueño ... -.25 .. i think motivation may work here ..

ive seen this team who is one of league big guns after 3 big .. cerro olimpia and libertad ... then its nacional and luqueño they uusally get what they want
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Old 05-12-17, 00:00   #9
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Luckily, the red card for Sportivo Trinidense saved the day...
Nacional - Independiente 5:0 FT
Rubio Nu - Sportivo Trinidense 1:0 FT
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Old 06-12-17, 15:11   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madugu_gorge View Post


Is there anyone who is more familiar at Paraguay football league? This is the 'next to last' round and three teams are playing tonight to keep their heads above the surface in order to avoid relegation.
I am familiar enough to know that Nacional is one of the biggest clubs in Paraguay and that it would be shocking if they found themselves in Segunda. They will have huge motivation and a huge support I am sure, as they will secure their stay in Primera with 3 points today. They also must keep in mind that they will play an away match against Libertad in last leg, where they will be huge underdogs against one of the top sides, and a big rival who will surely be glad to send them to Segunda. Newly promoted Independiente also won't lack motivation tonight. They are also in a very bad situation, and a lost match here will make them fight in last round against a direct rival for remaining at top division - Rubio Nu.
In these situations, I can't not to back up a significantly bigger club with a huge tradition behind them against such a small club as Independiente is. Call me crazy, but I wouldn't exclude a push Nacional can get from the officials. At least that's how things work in my country, but then again, our football is controlled by the mob...or shall I say, our whole country is controlled by the mob, but that's another story.
All in all, I am backing Nacional here...HW@1.90 (smaller stakes).

Second team I will put some money on is Rubio Nu, HW@1,62
They are not that big club as Nacional is, but for a past decade or two, they were a stable, average Primera side. They are hosting a team that was relegated a long time ago. Usually, the teams that are relegated with several or more games left (like Sportivo Tridense this year) lose their motivation gradually as season is coming to an end. Such a weak side as they showed they are with not much motivation (if any at all), playing an away match against a team that has fire bellow their feet...I can't not to back up the hosts here.

But then again, Paraguay Primera is not really my cup of tea, so if anyone is willing to give advice, please comment
nice job!
i'm sorry i wasn't able to follow.

cognrats
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