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Analysis and discussions (and predictions) for Internationals and friendly soccer games.

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Old 11-06-17, 22:36   #1
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Old 12-06-17, 13:27   #2
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MEXICO:

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Old 12-06-17, 13:29   #3
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Important:

Damm sustituirá a Tecatito en la Confederaciones

http://www.record.com.mx/futbol-noti...onfederaciones

because of personal reasons Tecatito Corona refused to play in Russia, instead of him Jurgen Damm of UANL Tigres was invited

a big blow for Mexico, Jurgen Damm has no technique and skill, he can only run really, really fast but that's it. Corona plays in Porto and this will hurt Mexico's squad and chances in CC
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Old 12-06-17, 13:32   #4
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p.s.

on that picture above Jesus Corona the goalkeeper is X'ed, that is not the Corona I am talking about, that is the goalkeeper Corona, but a winger Corona that is the crucial for this team and plays for Porto is OUT!

http://us.soccerway.com/players/jesus-corona/141078/
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Old 12-06-17, 15:04   #5
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So here are the best odds on who will win this thing:

3.75 Germany - 32Red/ 888 Sport
3.75 Portugal - Betway
4.33 Chile - Betway
11 Russia - Marathon Bet
12 Mexico - Bwin
29 Cameroon - Marathon Bet
56 Australia - Marathon Bet
501 New Zealand - Bet365

Germany are overrated. They've left out most of their regulars and will be attending with an experiential B squad. Of course, it is possible that the team will click and come together but at these odds, I won't be touching them...

Unlike Germany, Portugal will attend with their best squad so their odds seem justified but are they really hungry?

Chile seem motivated and will be attending with a class squad. Chile could certainly go all the way and they're yearning for some silverware. They might be worth a punt...

Russia has looked pretty poor in the last friendlies and will be missing some key players. Of course, they will have the crowds behind them but I don't think that will suffice. With Alan Dzagoev and Artyom Dzyuba out where will their goals come from?

Mexico look interesting and have a class squad. Moreover, they should advance out of their group fairly easily (they should beat Russia and New Zealand). Plus they're the only team in the competition that has won it so far (not that this means too much). I think there may be value in taking them at these odds although I am not sure how seriously they will take this contest with the Gold Cup coming up in July...

I do like Cameroon at these odds. They won AFCON recently under their new coach Hugo Broos. Broos will be retaining the core players that won AFCON but he has also called up some interesting new players such as Ajax's goalkeeper Andre Onana, Bulgaria-based midfielder Petrus Boumal who has been in top form with CSKA Sofia, Spanish Segunda Division defender Lucien Owona of Alcorcon and Switzerland-based striker Jean Pierre Nsame who has scored 22 times for Servette. Cameroon previously were runners-up in 2003 and will want to improve on that performance. Ironically, this competition may also be Cameroon's best hope for silverware in the near future because it looks like they will be the one team in the mix that won't be attending the next World Cup. Currently they are locked in a tight qualifying group with Nigeria (who are 4 points ahead with 4 games outstanding) and Algeria. I am convinced that Cameroon will really give this competition their best shot and they have some quality to boot. Whether it will be enough is another question, of course. But at these odds, I will take Cameroon. I think they are underrated and will give their competitors a good run for their money.

Last edited by WiserthantheCrowd; 12-06-17 at 15:32.
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Old 12-06-17, 21:25   #6
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Great preview, as expected from you WTTC! I believe that Portugal and Chile are the biggest favorites here. And about Mexico, if they will play L. Rodriguez-Duenas-Jurgen Damm in the same starting lineup as a trio, I will play on them in that case. Those 3 players have great connection and they are playing together in UANL Tigres the best mexican club.

And Orbelin Pineda-Alan Pulido as offensive power duo will also be great to see if they set them up this way, they are both playing for Guadajalara Chivas, the current champions and those two players are motivated after winning the championship in Liga MX.
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Old 17-06-17, 11:55   #7
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Russia vs New Zeland

Russia FT

https://www.apostaganha.com/2017/06/...confederacoes/
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Old 17-06-17, 15:27   #8
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it's starting today, Russia - New Zealand I will skip that

but tomorrow we have some big games, Portugal - Mexico, will add my thoughts on it and looking forward to yours as well guys
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Old 17-06-17, 15:36   #9
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but tomorrow we have some big games, Portugal - Mexico, will add my thoughts on it and looking forward to yours as well guys
Mexico to win, Gignac to score.
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Old 17-06-17, 15:45   #10
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Mexico to win, Gignac to score.
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Old 17-06-17, 15:48   #11
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Russia (vs New Zealand) to win @1.3 // 10/10 stakes.

They are the hosts of the tournament and a better team than New Zealand. This match is important for them to show the world and their crowd what they can expect from them in the coming world cup.
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Old 17-06-17, 15:52   #12
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Russia (vs New Zealand) to win @1.3 // 10/10 stakes.

They are the hosts of the tournament and a better team than New Zealand. This match is important for them to show the world and their crowd what they can expect from them in the coming world cup.
That would be the obvious bet, but is it worth it to risk 10 units on odds 1.30?
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Old 17-06-17, 15:58   #13
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That would be the obvious bet, but is it worth it to risk 10 units on odds 1.30?
For me, definitely it is. I wouldn't risk 10 units on odds 2+
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Old 17-06-17, 20:58   #14
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For those of u, who missed Russia-New Zealand, I'd like to share few observations, which might be useful, if u want to bet on the other games of these two teams.

Russia won deservedly and was definitely a superior team. However, Russia overall looked very mediocre to me. A lot of easily misplaced balls in midfield, which will be punished hard by any more decent team. Their strikers are not good enough for this level. Their young 3 men defense also doesn't look good. NZ, which played very primitive football offensively, should have scored a goal.

NZ are just out of the standards of this competition. They try to park the bus, but their defense looks very poor and disorganized, and their keeper is not good. So, it is all a question of motivation of NZ's rival. Any of the other two teams in the group should roll over NZ if they are motivated enough to do this.
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Old 18-06-17, 09:53   #15
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For me, definitely it is. I wouldn't risk 10 units on odds 2+
You should bet on value, not on odds
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Old 18-06-17, 18:15   #16
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Lucky draw for Mexico, but Osorio will never learn. He must get fired. He keeps pushing these european players like they are sent from god, he will never learn. He thinks that Liga MX players are inferior to those players that are playing in europe when every player that got transfered there started in Liga MX. With Peralta, Damm or Lozano, Aquino in the game they could've won this.
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Old 18-06-17, 22:45   #17
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Hi guys, what about tomorrow's match ? Australia against Germany...

Australia with one solid team, I fancy their attack and I believe that they are able to score...
Germany I can say with their B team, with some good, young players but far away from their best team..>Still they have Draxler, Werner, Wagner, Brandt...
This competition is a little strange, tough to predict, but still I think that here we can expect goals...
For Over 2,5 goals we have odds about 1,65, while for BTTS is about 1,90...what we can expect from this match...any other opinions ?
Thanks
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Old 19-06-17, 01:24   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lakers View Post
Hi guys, what about tomorrow's match ? Australia against Germany...

Australia with one solid team, I fancy their attack and I believe that they are able to score...
Germany I can say with their B team, with some good, young players but far away from their best team..>Still they have Draxler, Werner, Wagner, Brandt...
This competition is a little strange, tough to predict, but still I think that here we can expect goals...
For Over 2,5 goals we have odds about 1,65, while for BTTS is about 1,90...what we can expect from this match...any other opinions ?
Thanks
Australia struggled against Saudi Arabia at home (3-2), then confirmed that they have issues in their 0-4 defeat at home to Brazil (without Neymar and others).
You can count on Australia not to park the bus and they will try to score a goal themselves, but even a Germany B team could be too much for the socceroos right now.

Jedinak is not available for Australia.

With the gaps that the Australian defence showed in these two games, there should be a few goals, I'm tempted by over 2.75 @1.84.
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Old 19-06-17, 11:46   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quill View Post
I'm tempted by over 2.75 @1.84.
I'm on it as well, gl! hopefully stupid crap Video Assistant Referee won't destroy couple of goals and this bet
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Old 19-06-17, 12:21   #20
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Why is Russia not to reach the semi finals priced at 2.50? Considering how they played against New Zeland and how both Portugal and Mexico played, that looks like a good bet. Am i missing something?
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Old 19-06-17, 12:35   #21
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I'm on it as well, gl! hopefully stupid crap Video Assistant Referee won't destroy couple of goals and this bet
Or maybe it will validate some!
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Old 19-06-17, 12:40   #22
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...hopefully stupid crap Video Assistant Referee won't destroy couple of goals and this bet
Give it some time, you'll get used to it and see its value.

In rugby it works very well.
Players rejoice when they think they scored and they rejoice after validation as well.

However, when an otherwise wrongfully awarded try is not validated, you should see the relief of the parties concerned.
Think of it when you have a handicap bet and a goal is scored against your bet... Then not validated.

Think of the goals that have not been validated, Germany vs England, when (Gerrard's or Lampard's ?) long distance goal was 2 metres behind the line and wasn't validated for what would have been 1-1.

We've been waiting (I and others, if you weren't) for this to be implemented for more than 20 years now.
Glad it's in, as no more stupid errors, seen only by the cameras and ignored by refs, although they saw it too replayed on the big screen.

Anyway...

Goals tonight please!
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Old 19-06-17, 12:40   #23
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Why is Russia not to reach the semi finals priced at 2.50? Considering how they played against New Zeland and how both Portugal and Mexico played, that looks like a good bet. Am i missing something?
New Zealand are pretty poor. I made the mistake of recommending them not to lose in their last trial match against Belarus. But the B squad of Belarus dealt with New Zealand fairly comfortably and also beat them 2-0. New Zealand came to this contest with the express goal of winning a match but based on what I've seen I think they need to revise their objective. Scoring a goal would be a great feat for them. Beating them is no big deal.
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Old 19-06-17, 12:49   #24
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Exactly. That's why i am asking if i am missing something. Cause Russia to reach the semi finals are priced at 1.50 and not to reach at 2.50. Is that all based on the fact that they have 3 points at the moment and Portugal/Mexico 1? It's to be expected that both Portugal and Mexico win against New Zeland and with at least 2 goals, just like Russia did. After that i don't see Russia beating neither Portugal or Mexico.
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Old 19-06-17, 17:45   #25
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Boy, this Germany does not look like a serious team.
Only time they looked comfortable was when playing full court press but they have no energy to do that for more than 20-30 minutes.
Unlike their previous generations they don't have a reliable goalie either, instead they have this mug from funny Leverkusen team which had one of the worst defenses in the league and he is a huge liability.
Their midfielders/forwards look so inexperienced and incapable of making good decisions. Australia played so openly and were so insecure in the back that some serious team would easily put 5-6 past their keeper.

Now they are just sitting back and defending this lead. Pathetic mentality.

Good job to everyone with BTS and goal bets.
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Old 19-06-17, 18:16   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quill View Post
Give it some time, you'll get used to it and see its value.

In rugby it works very well.
Players rejoice when they think they scored and they rejoice after validation as well.

However, when an otherwise wrongfully awarded try is not validated, you should see the relief of the parties concerned.
Think of it when you have a handicap bet and a goal is scored against your bet... Then not validated.

Think of the goals that have not been validated, Germany vs England, when (Gerrard's or Lampard's ?) long distance goal was 2 metres behind the line and wasn't validated for what would have been 1-1.

We've been waiting (I and others, if you weren't) for this to be implemented for more than 20 years now.
Glad it's in, as no more stupid errors, seen only by the cameras and ignored by refs, although they saw it too replayed on the big screen.

Anyway...

Goals tonight please!
Grande Quill 5 goals !

yeah, I know it's better but I just don't like it, I hate that you're not really sure it's a goal until the ball is moved from center again, it's too "american" for me. reminds me of nba and nfl too much

Quote:
Originally Posted by tomynica View Post
Exactly. That's why i am asking if i am missing something. Cause Russia to reach the semi finals are priced at 1.50 and not to reach at 2.50. Is that all based on the fact that they have 3 points at the moment and Portugal/Mexico 1? It's to be expected that both Portugal and Mexico win against New Zeland and with at least 2 goals, just like Russia did. After that i don't see Russia beating neither Portugal or Mexico.
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Boy, this Germany does not look like a serious team.
Only time they looked comfortable was when playing full court press but they have no energy to do that for more than 20-30 minutes.
Unlike their previous generations they don't have a reliable goalie either, instead they have this mug from funny Leverkusen team which had one of the worst defenses in the league and he is a huge liability.
Their midfielders/forwards look so inexperienced and incapable of making good decisions. Australia played so openly and were so insecure in the back that some serious team would easily put 5-6 past their keeper.

Now they are just sitting back and defending this lead. Pathetic mentality.

Good job to everyone with BTS and goal bets.
they don't care enough for this tournament either, but they will be good for overs because of conceding goals at least
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Old 19-06-17, 19:35   #27
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Quote:
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Those days
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Old 19-06-17, 22:10   #28
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Germany-Chile BTS pays 1,44.. This might be playable in double, what do you think?
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Old 19-06-17, 23:04   #29
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...yeah, I know it's better but I just don't like it, I hate that you're not really sure it's a goal until the ball is moved from center again, it's too "american" for me. reminds me of nba and nfl too much
How about if the ref says no goal or didn't see it in, and the VAR says it is?
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Old 21-06-17, 19:16   #30
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Originally Posted by WiserthantheCrowd View Post
New Zealand are pretty poor. I made the mistake of recommending them not to lose in their last trial match against Belarus. But the B squad of Belarus dealt with New Zealand fairly comfortably and also beat them 2-0. New Zealand came to this contest with the express goal of winning a match but based on what I've seen I think they need to revise their objective. Scoring a goal would be a great feat for them. Beating them is no big deal.
following your thread, then they should lose also Vs México B team...

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