Aussie Rules

Quill · 15-06-17, 07:50

This is my POD.

West Coast Eagles vs Geelong

Bet: Total Match Points Over 191.5
Odds: 2.80 Unibet

Geelong are fighting for the championship and are sitting third, one win away from the top spot, with one game in hand.
They are coming into this match in good form, after three consecutive wins, although all of them at home.
Their away record is very good too, with 3 wins and two defeats.

After a very good start to the season, the Eagles have gone 3 defeats in a row. This is quite unusual to happen to them, as the last time they lost three or more in a row was in 2014.
Their home record so far is very good, with 4 wins and only one defeat, to Greater Western Sydney, who are sitting joint top on the ladder.

So the Eagles are quite good at home, and they usually bounce back at home after poor performances.
They are in the fight for a top 8 spot, to enter the play-offs, and right now they are just outside on the same number of points with 5 other teams, but lower For/Against Percentage, so they need this win badly.

Both teams are high scoring, Geelong more so than the Eagles.
Geelong score 105 points per game on average and concede 90, while the Eagles are 89-90 on average.

In their last 5 away games, Geelong scored 113 points per game on average, while the Eagles scored 94 on average in their last 5 at home.

The last two matches h2h were last year and two years ago, with Geelong winning 123-79 at home last year, and the Eagles winning 120-64 at home two years ago.

I see big chances for a high scoring game tonight as well, as both teams have plenty to play for and both need this win quite badly.

P.S. A goal is worth 6 points, so the score of 120-64 above needed just one more goal to get to 190 points.
When the goal is missed and the ball goes through the side posts, it is worth 1 point, so many times big chances get only 1 point instead of 6. When you have 10-15 such misses, you'd need only 2-3 to have hit the target and you'd have 10-15 more points already, which instead have been counted as 2-3 points.

C9000 · 15-06-17, 12:18

Eagles doing their job, but Geelong look like they won't be able to score much more than 50 tonight :-)

Funny sport though, the first time I'm watching this - a lot of pace, and teamwork. And precise kicking. I like it!

Quill · 15-06-17, 13:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by C9000

Eagles doing their job, but Geelong look like they won't be able to score much more than 50 tonight :-)

Funny sport though, the first time I'm watching this - a lot of pace, and teamwork. And precise kicking. I like it!

Glad to hear that!

You know, this game appeared long before soccer, in 1850.

Quill · 22-06-17, 06:16

Adelaide vs Hawthorn

Adelaide are in great form, top of the ladder, and although equal on points with Greater Western Sydney, they are far more potent with 118.8 points per game on average, by far the highest in the league.

Hawthorn are on a run of poor form, sitting second bottom on the ladder, one of the lowest scoring teams in the league and third last defence.

Adelaide's firepower will be too much for Hawthorn to handle, and having two teams hot on their heels chasing the top spot, they can't afford to be merciful.

Bet: Adelaide -50.5 @1.90

Quill · 23-06-17, 10:22

Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers

The Swans are coming back to form, with 5 wins in their last 6 matches, and are now just 4 points (one win is 4 points) below the top 8, which means play-offs.
They have improved their defence too, keeping their opposition to low scores, below 80.

Essendon are coming off a break, and last time they played, two weeks ago, they responded in a big way to two consecutive defeats, by demolishing Adelaide Power, a top 4 team.
The Bombers are now 8th on the ladder, and they have a high average of points scored, as well as points allowed.

This is going to be a tricky match for Sydney, as Essendon's last three wins were against top 4 teams.

Considering the Swans are back in form, and they are the losing finalists of last season, I'm going for a close Sydney win, as Essendon even when they lose, they keep close, within 40 or so.

If this wasn't a match involving Essendon, who scored more than 110 points in 4 of their last 5 matches, I'd have gone for Unders, but they are coming after a break, they will be eager to play, so I'll take a stab at the Overs as well.

Bet 1: Sydney winning margin 1-39 @2.05
Bet 2: Total Points Over 175.5 @1.99