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Old 04-11-16, 05:55   #31
cgmbet
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Here will try to present my new project.

It is far to be finished, but as most of you already know the main software was build based on users suggestions and more than 75% of the features were added after you convinced me that would be a good idea and very useful for users.

Now it is about the new Rating Maker Software. This is intended to allow you to create and test your own rating system. I am not very sue will be possible to create all the bricks and tools you will need but the idea is to be close on you and if you will try to create a new rating system and will not find something to add there I will create it.
For example, I do not know, you think that is a sound strategy to consider the last 5 games goals home 60 % , the head to head meetings -10% and other ingredients the rest ...will create this, eventually test against past results to make an idea...etc.

This will not be easy to create but with your help I am sure will create it.

Now, in the picture, as preview, is the first system I created (will be finished soon).
It will be based on football essence : the goal

Based on goals probabilities will be calculated all the probabilities for all markets. Of course the problem is how will find the goals probabilities.
By testing different scenarios.
I will start considering last 5 seasons goals between similar teams (as ELO and/or form) then the probabilities will be adjusted manually (based on our experience) or automatically considering different situations. - an important player is missing, bad weather conditions,...etc..
All these will affect attack or defense strength with few percents then will affect goals probabilities.
Of course the attack pr defense strength will be adjusted manually if you want and you are sure you know what you are doing .

For example if 1 important striker is missing on the home team and the weather conditions are bed will try to go down the probabilities for 1,2,3,..goals (with different percents) but to increase the probability for 0 goals. ....

This is the main idea and below is a preview.


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Old 17-11-16, 04:59   #32
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Few steps forward last night ...

1. I improved a little bit manage procedure for adjust attack/defense strength
2. Added correct score percents.
3. Added the possibility to show/hide the markets in order to have a better look of markets where are you interested in

More to come
1. Added the Asian Handicap market percents
2. Manage how different events affect the goals scored percents.

Again, if you have any idea please write here. I do not promise I will implement but maybe will discuss here


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Old 27-11-16, 16:52   #33
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A new and very important step forward for my new project.

I added the possibility to manage events.
What it is about, let-s make a short history:

1. All the initial goals percents are calculated based previous similar games in the past 5 years. Similar games means games where home and away teams had similar ELO ratings (actually inside a range you can set - for example +/- 25 points...etc)

2. Now, the percents may be affected by different events and you have 2 possibilities:
a. adjust manually the attack or defence strength for both team, depending on your information about the game
b. adjust automatically the attack or defence strength based on some predefined events, like "bad weather conditions" or "important home team defender is missing"

Any modification of attack or defence strength will lead to the change of percents for the goals based what you set for +5% variation. In order to preset what happen when the attack or defence changes with 5% click the first "Manage" button. At this moment there are not set any changes so any change over attack or defence has no effect. You have to do this by clicking "Manage" button.

By the way, please see how close are probabilities calculated to offered odds.
The events are for testing purposes. I do not know if it there was havy rain.


In order to apply point b. you have to predefine your events. Clck the second button "Manage" and you can do that. I added for testing purposes few events.

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Old 13-12-16, 18:18   #34
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New "small" improvement in Rating Maker.

I added the Half Time goals scored percent so it is possible now to play with Half Time markets. Unfortunately I do not have the odds for Half Time yet.

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Old 26-12-16, 06:02   #35
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Following a few VIP users suggestion I added the possibility to select double chance and gg/ng options for "my games" feature.


I remember you that this feature allows you to save some info about your future betting intentions, along with commentaries, in order to see them later and to make your final decision. It is also possible to filter and to see only "my games" in the main table in order to focus better over them.



In order to access it just right-click on the selected game.



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Old 26-12-16, 06:12   #36
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Do you have BTTS market?

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Old 28-12-16, 13:00   #37
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Finally I added other 2 "my leagues" sets in order to give the possibility to test your different strategies on different sets of leagues more efficient.

It is easy to use, just select the set you need and all the actions will be over the set selected. Add, remove...clear all leagues.
Of course in UPCOMING you have to select "My leagues 1", 2 or 3.


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Old 28-01-17, 10:10   #38
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Following some suggestions I added the possibility to see extra data in the Head to Head section.

May be useful sometimes to see what happened in the last games or maybe to see the opponents strength in order to understand better the team results.

On the bottom side you may select to see (or not) some extra information next to the team's name. For now, I added 7 extra values to select from.
The value selected is saved in the configuration file so next time you enter in the H2H section your last choice will be displayed.

Anyway, please be aware that not all leagues has complete data but major leagues have more than 90% completed for the last few seasons.



and the result:

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Old 09-02-17, 19:00   #39
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Thank you for feedback. Feedback and suggestions were very important on program developing. More than 75% of the program is developed following users suggestions and ideas. Maybe this is why the program looks a little bit too "heavy" and maybe too many features that seem to be useless. Be sure there are users that use them because they suggested the features......



Like the following one:


Following a new suggestion I inserted MyTeams and MyLeagues options in the STATISTICS section, like in the picture.

Also, I changed the way the STATISTICS section opens. Will open now directly with MyLeagues instead of AllLeagues because the last one is very much time consuming.
In the picture I selected MyLeagues, then MyTeams , all games, events on line then I sorted the column UNDER in order to see how many games UNDER 2.5 goals were in the row for the teams selected. Just an example.


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Old 18-02-17, 07:06   #40
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I notice that many of us likes to create rating systems, based on various strategies.


For example how many games the home team scored in the last 10 games against how many games the away team scored in the last 10 games. Let-s say 8-7. Based on that, we may think that in the next game there are chances for both teams to score. Of course, if we calculate how many games they received in the same period, let-s say 7-5, our assumption gets weight…and so on. Of course we must consider the price offered…etc. but it is not about this in this post.


As you know, I try to meet the user requirements. I would like to create a tool to automate this problem:

1. Create your own rating values based on different scenarios, both for home and away team;
2. The final value may be based on up to 5 intermediate values. The intermediate values will be added with different pre-set percent into final value. (will see later in this post)
3. Save/load the rating
4. Apply the rating for the next games
5. Test the rating against past results.



I feel that this will be a very important feature of my tool so I decided to present what I have done so far in order to give your opinion or to correct me before is too late.


To make it clear: it is not operational (may be in 2 weeks ) but you can play with it (it is free to access) in order to see what it is about. I will continue after I will have some feedback. I put numbers over picture to make possible questions easier.



Maybe seems to be complicated but it is not if you have patience to understand.
On short:


Select up to 5 conditions for home or away team then set the weight for each of them
The final value will be (w1*v1+w2*v2+w3*v3+w4*v4+w5*v5)/100

Select the league (all leagues, one league or my leagues) and the period (today, next 3,5 days) then click CALCULATE (not operational yet). The calculated final values will appear next to each game.


When click on game in the first table – in the second table will see all similar games (with the same rating values) and the results/profit…etc.

Of course will be the possibility to export or save the work.

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Old 05-03-17, 10:06   #41
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Two small improvements based on user suggestions but with great effect:



1.

There were few requests to allow user to chose different number of games not only 5 or 10.

It is possible now to select 3-25 games back. Please be aware that the number of games are not taken from previous season. For example if you select last 12 games but the team played only 5 games current season then 5 games will be calculated.








2.

Finally, in the RATING SYSTEM I added the possibility to select (as source for the goal percent ) how many seasons you want.
Now you can play with it to see what settings are better on long term.


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Old 08-03-17, 08:11   #42
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Please check PM bro
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Old 16-03-17, 20:05   #43
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I notice latest increased intersest for the ALERTS section so, following a user suggestion, I added few new features.


Please note that all these are included in the free version!


First of all, this section may be used to see what happened in the games with a big favorite. I had no other choice but the odds to consider who is the favorite.
For example if you would like to see what what games ended draw this season (but you may select all database) in Premier League considering the game where the favorites had odds under 1.50. You would have had a profit around 20% (depends on the time when bet ) if you had bet on draw!

Also you may see in the picture (you see only the latest games - you have to scrool to see all ) the games that


1. Qualified for the possible upset (draw in this case) - like Chelsea-Swansea, Everton- Sunderland...and the last one Liverpool-Burnley
2. Actually happened - like Manchester - Bournemuth and Manchester - Stoke ...
3. The next games that qualify for possible upsets in the selected conditions like Middlesboro - Manchester on 19.03


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Old 02-04-17, 13:47   #44
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It is possible now to see the results in the UPCOMING section not only for Half Time, Second Time or Full Time but also between selected minutes!


This may be extremely useful if you search for games where at least one team used to score very quickly, or maybe just after the period, or whatever.

For example, in the example bellow I selected My leagues, goals scored for the home teams, goals received for the away teams -
After all I selected to calculate only for the goals scored (received) in the first 15 minutes.



How to read the results. For example Nice - Bordeaux, tonight.
We can see that Nice scored 0.533 goals/game in the first 15 minutes (much more than league average - 0.187) since Bordeaux received 0.429 goals/game in the first 15 minutes (much more than league average). May be nothing but also may be something interesting.



Anyway, please consider the following limitations of this new powerful feature:

1. The feature is allowed only for the current season (may be available soon for past seasons)
2. As I checked there are 95.5% games this season with correct goal minutes (I work to improve the percent)
3. It is still under testing so please take care...


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Old 13-04-17, 06:11   #45
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Finnaly, few importants steps forward on Advanced Rating System. I found extremely hard to create this tool. Maybe this is the reason I did not find any similar program over the net.



For example we can create a simple rating system based on percent of games won this season at home versus percent of games lost this season away.
This is very simple but we mat think to combine this with the goals scored, games over, under....etc.



This new tool will allow us to create rating systems based on maximum 5 values. If we use more than one value we must set the "weight" of each value.



For example
1. The percent of games won at home last season - 75%
2. The goals scored/game this season - 25%



All values must be in the interval 0-100 so if we have "goals scored" the resulted value must be translated to 0-100. With the last 2 buttons we can do that by selecting the source interval to be translated to 0-100



For example, if we used "goals scored/game" will result something like 1.34 or 0.95 or 2.00...etc so will set the minimum value to 0 and maximum value to 4.



The next step is to create a back-testing system. I will finish it next weeks.



Seems to be complicated but it is not actually . I will respond to any question you may have.


It would be excelent to report bugs and/or to make suggestions. I will implement them if it is possible


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Old 22-04-17, 15:49   #46
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The Advanced Rating Maker has now the possibility to test your selections against past results.

As an example.

I set up a rating as follows:
For the home team:
1. The percent of won games in the last 10 games at home - 70%
2. The numbers of goals scored/game in the last 10 games at home - 30%

For the away team:
1. The percent of lost games in the last 10 games at home - 70%
2. The numbers of goals received/game in the last 10 games at home - 30%

I selected on the right side only Premier League games, today then clicked CALCULATE
(Please note that now is possible to export the resulted table by clicking EXPORT button)

At this moment the bottom butons are not activated but if you select a game (I selected HULL - WATFORD) the bottom buttons are activated.
The values for selected game are 45 vs 69

Please note that greater number does not mean better. It is just a number and in this case it is worst if it is bigger actually.

After I select the interval +/- 5 points and "This season" clicked CALCULATE.
Please note that the system will calculate only the games where the home teams have the values between 40-50 and the away teams have the values between 64-74.

In the bottom grid will be presented all the games that met the conditions.

Under the grid are presented the possible results.
In this case home teams won 14 games out of 15 with a very good profit.

Please try this new powerful feature and report any error or unexpected result.

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Old 29-04-17, 08:15   #47
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Following some suggestions I introduced new options for the Advanced Rating Maker:

Not won
Not draw
Not lost
GG
NG
and also the GG and NG on the results container.
In the picture below I created a simple rating for today's Premier games, based on GG and Over 2.5 goals then I wanted to see what happened this season in the Premier considering the same rating values. (+/- 5 points) for the Stoke - West Ham match
The total number of similar games was not very big, only 15, but we can see that indeed Over 2.5 and GG happened more often.

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Old 09-05-17, 16:48   #48
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Much appreciate your effort and the time you dedicate in improving your software. Maybe give us some pointers in better using those many features you've implemented so far. I'm referring to some strategies, systems... You can easily get lost in all those statistics. Maybe people using the software for quite some time can give us some pointers.
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Old 21-05-17, 06:52   #49
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Thank you dm85, I hope my tools will continue to be useful for you..

Now,

I added few useful features in Advanced Rating Maker:

First of all and most important, for the entire summer period, the Rating Maker is free to use


1. If you right click on the first table you may add the game to "My games" list. This will allow you to keep the games you would like to follow and to check later.

2. It is possible now to load "My Games" and apply them the Rating Maker.
3. I separated head to head option. Now you can select home+away games (all games played between teams no matter the venue) or home vs away games (only games where home team played at home and the away team played away).


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Old 17-06-17, 07:35   #50
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First of all I would like to give all credit for this new feature to my friend Connor.
It is his idea and also sponsored this new very powerful feature.

As you know there is a feature “Alerts”. You are allowed to set up to 10 alerts in order to be aware if some games appear on UPCOMING screen. For example games where home team won last 3 games at home and away team not scored 3 games in a row. There are many possibilities – for example to alert you just if the odds are over 2.30 for example….etc





Now, thanks to Connor , I created a new feature in order to see how your alerts performed in the past. In order to do that
- Select a past period - nr.1 in the picture
- Select the button “show only my alerts” – nr.2 in the picture
At this moment will be activated a new tab – ALERTS – nr. 3 in the picture. Here will be presented your possible profit for all leagues, a specific league, for all alerts, for a specific alert. More than that you can select to see only alerts where the calculated values are highlighted – see nr.4 in the picture.
I am very positive this new feature will be very useful and will be a nice new toy for statistic freaks.


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