Holland Eredivisie 5/6/7 February

NFM · 03-02-10, 23:06

NFM · 05-02-10, 10:44

Tonight's game the derby between Willem II - NAC

Willem II won a very important match against RKC last weekend. They build a five point margin between them and the number last RKC. It was not a solid match, the weather conditions weren't ideal but the Tilburg outfit pulled through in the second half as they showed more determination and fighting spirit. It is clear they are not in their best form as it was their first victory after having gone seven games without. Of those seven, six were lost. Nonetheless during the winter break they signed Nijland and Donald. The former has already proven his worth scoring twice and the latter is expected to feature in the starting eleven today. He will probably come in to replace Demouge. This is Willem II's big miss. Their target man is suspended and Groenendijk will have to come up with a solution as they don't really have a replacement for him. Another important absentee is defender Swinkels.

On the other side we have NAC. They have also had some problems in their squad lately but the Breda outfit has a lot of experience in their team and they managed to grab 7 points from their 3 matches in 2010 anyhow. Beating RKC 0-1 on the road and VVV 2-0 at home. Their latest game was last Tuesday, they scored a late equalizer against AZ, drawing 1-1. The only misstep was their surprising cup exit against second division side Go Ahead Eagles. They lost at home with 1-2. NAC will miss both central defenders Zwaanswijk and Penders. They will get important forwards Leonardo and Amoah back. The former had been suspended for several games while Amoah was away on international duty in the Africa Cup of Nations.

The teams met each other two times before this season. NAC won at home with 4-0 while they also threw Willem II out of the KNVB Cup beating them 2-3 on the road. (Demouge scoring once for WII, Leonardo 2x and Amoah for NAC) I expect a similar game. Willem II should be eager to give their fans a victory, not only because they really need the points to avoid the relegation zone but also because they already lost the derby twice this year. NAC can't rely on their defence as much as usual and with Leonardo back in the squad they automatically play more offensively. I think this match could go OVER2.5 and I like the odds around 1.94 (SBO). 5/10 for me.

Flying Dutchman · 05-02-10, 11:43

Injuries and suspensions (FCupdate.nl)

ADO Den Haag

Aleksandr Rankovic (knee)
Mitchell Piqué (foot)

Ajax

Thimothée Atouba (knee)
Toby Alderweireld (Hamstring)

AZ

Brett Holman (Ankle)
David Mendes da Silva (leg)

FC Groningen

Danny Post (Ankle)
Darryl Lachman (knee)
Frank Olijve (?)
Jeffrey Rijsdijk (knee)
Koen van de Laak (Ankle)
Nicklas Pedersen (Ankle)
Ondrej Svejdik (Knee)
Petter Andersson (knee)
Sepp de Roover (knee)
Theo Lucius (leg)
Tim Sparv (leg)

FC Twente

David Carney (shoulder)
Nashat Akram (Leg)
Nikolay Mihailov (knee)

FC Utrecht

Hans Somers (leg)
Sander Keller (suspended)
Wesley de Ruiter (knee)

Feyenoord

Dani Fernandez (knee)
Giovanni van Bronckhorst (muscle) doubtfull
Kelvin Leerdam(knee)
Luc Castaignos (hand)

Heracles Almelo

Mark-Jan Fledderus (Ankle)

NAC Breda

Patrick Zwaanswijk (knee)
Rob Penders (?)
Tyrone Loran (knee)

NEC

John Goossens (Ankle)
Lasse Schöne (knee)
Mark Otten (knee)

PSV

Reimond Manco (knee)
Stanislav Manolev (suspended)

RKC Waalwijk

Frank van Mosselveld (suspended)

Roda JC

Kris de Wree (leg)
Davy de Fauw (suspended)
Jamaique Vandamme (knee)
Jan-Paul Saeijs (suspended)

SC Heerenveen

Geert Arend Roorda (knee)
Kenny Steppe (hand)
Roy Beerens (back), doubtful

Sparta

Emmanuel Boakye (knee)
Sander van Gessel (concussion)

Vitesse

Rogier Molhoek (Ankle)
Ronald Graafland (knee)
Sinan Kaloglu (?)

VVV Venlo

Dennis Gentenaar (knee)
Kevin van Dessel (Hamstring)

Willem II

Frank Demouge (suspended)
Niki Maenpaa (Ankle)
Paul Quasten (?)

bookieinsider · 05-02-10, 12:19

Willem - NAC

I would skip the over 2,5 goals here.
The reason is that this is a derby and traditionally this is a match with a lot of fouls wich will slow down the match for sure.

Willem II DNB @ 2,22 (Pinnacle) or Willem II +0.25 @ 1,85 (10bet) seems as better options for tonights match.

NAC could feel their legs because this is their 3rd match in 7 days. Willem II should play on Wednesday against NEC but the match was postponed due to a waterlogged pitch in Nijmegen. So they should have a physical advantage for this match. There is a odds drop on NAC and I see no reason behind this drop. Maybe people see that NAC have beaten Willem II already 2 times this season. But that were different situations. Tonight will be a very difficult match for NAC as Willem II is fully motivated, they have almost full squad and improved their team during the winterbreak.

NFM · 05-02-10, 13:09

I like WII here as well but I'm a bit worried about the goals. I can see them scoring once but NAC will probably find the net themselves. Amoah and Leonardo didn't play lately and should be fit. I'll probably wait for the line ups to take WII +0.25.
Donald could feature alongside Nijland and I don't know about that really. Haven't seen him play for a while and always though of him as a midfielder.

Vitomkd · 06-02-10, 00:41

I see that Groningen have a lots of missings in the team. Heracles only one. Are those players of Groningen are important, if they are it is a clear Home Win. The odds are great for home win 2.35

.

Bubici · 06-02-10, 09:38

Any important missings for PSV?

NFM · 06-02-10, 10:52

FC Groningen are doing all right lately, winning 3 out of their 4 2010 games and managing to hold FC Twente to a draw in the other match. They have that long injury list for a while now. Amongst the injured are a few regulars but they have been out since 2009 mostly. In fact captain Van de Laak who missed the last few matches has recovered and will probably feature again while Sankoh returns to defence from a suspension. FC Groningen have yet to concede a goal in 2010. I think they are probably a bit overachieving while Heracles are underachieving. The Almelo outfit especially seem to have trouble finding the net again after the winter break. Only scoring once so far. They will be without regular midfielder Fledderus again but Maertens returns to defence after a suspension. I think this will be a low scoring game but I don't like the odds. Might be tempted to back Heracles (-0.25), I'll decide later.

PSV only miss regular right full back Manolev (suspended) but he can be replaced adequately. No further missings.

saint_mario · 06-02-10, 11:35

There are not many good matches in Eredivisie today. Still I find some value on backing Sparta with medium stakes against Roda:

Roda
Suspended: Saeijs, De Fauw
Injured: De Wree
Both the suspended players are regulars in the defense.
Sparta
Injured: Boakye, Dissels
None of the missing players is important.
Overview: Roda has not recorded many points lately, but you do not expect to do this against the likes of Ajax, Twente and PSV. Sparta are in a long winless run that stretches to 9 matches, but they have chances here. Roda are usually more comfortable playing away from home. Moreover, they will be without two defenders, which will definitely be to the benefit of the away team.
Recommendation: x2

Ziherash · 06-02-10, 13:12

Is it safe to include PSV in our combo bets?

According to stats it doesn't look as though Den Haag can cause an upset.

PSV involved in a tough battle with Twente for the championship and with their rivals playing Ajax tomorrow, PSV should be eager to tie up the 3 points agianst lowly DH...

pete1039 · 06-02-10, 23:56

I can see one of Ajax's key defender, Alderweireld, is out. I wonder if a midfielder can be used to replace him in defense because they only have Oleguer and Wielaert with only 3 appearances each and Atouba with 1.

NFM · 07-02-10, 01:30

No midfielder. Oleguer will start again for sure. No big problem there. He did a good job last week. The odds on Ajax are a bit short though.

sson gun · 07-02-10, 06:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by NFM

No midfielder. Oleguer will start again for sure. No big problem there. He did a good job last week. The odds on Ajax are a bit short though.

Spot on but they did go on with their form.

Ziherash · 07-02-10, 10:32

Feyenoord v Alkmaar

Alkmaar to win finally? I've been getting burnt on AZ for the last couple of matches, they are playing well but the results don't seem to be going for them...in my experience good performaces are bound to yield results with time...so, can they finally get their first win under the new manager?

Feyenoord are probably not the ideal opponents to be playing from AZ's point of view, as they are themselves in a good run of form...I watched them against bottom placed Waalwijk in midweek and the club from Rotterdam didn't impress me at all despite winning 1:0...

Odds on AZ are a juicy 3.10, or thereabouts, I am seriously considering taking the away win here...I'd like to hear some opinions and thoughts from our dutch friends...I just think it's worth risking somthing like 3 units on the away win here...or would I be wasting my money!?

Tim1978 · 07-02-10, 11:06

Don't bet on that game, it could go either way. Az plays good, that's for sure, but they forget to take the points many times this season. Feyenoord at home with their fantastic fans, it's real hard to beat them.

Flying Dutchman · 07-02-10, 12:23

AJAX-TWENTE

Very important game to both teams. FC Twente want to keep up with PSV, Ajax needs to get back on track for at least the 2nd place.
Both teams have a strong defence, altough Ajax is missing Alderweireld. Oleguer most probably will play.
Twente have no problems in defence.

Also both teams have a strong attack. Ofcourse Suarez/Pantelic on Ajax' side and N'Kufo/Ruiz on Twente side.

Twente has the more creative players: Perez/Stoch while Ajax has more controlling players with De Zeeuw and Gabri.

Anyway, difficult game to predict. Considering the importance of the game and teh good defences, IMO it will be a nervous game without a lot of goals.

Bet under 2,5 at 2,1 (unibet)

Flying Dutchman · 07-02-10, 12:34

RKC-NEC

RKC seems to have a huge scoring problem. Even when a goalkeepers is chanceless they manage to miss big chances.
NEC have a solid defence, especially away. They play compact, don't give away much chances and tehy have a solid goalkeeper in form: Gabor Babos.

IMO there value on RKC not to score at 3.2 (unibet)
And Away win at 2,5 or even NEC -1 HC at 5.35

Ziherash · 08-02-10, 09:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ziherash

Feyenoord v Alkmaar

Alkmaar to win finally? I've been getting burnt on AZ for the last couple of matches, they are playing well but the results don't seem to be going for them...in my experience good performaces are bound to yield results with time...so, can they finally get their first win under the new manager?

Feyenoord are probably not the ideal opponents to be playing from AZ's point of view, as they are themselves in a good run of form...I watched them against bottom placed Waalwijk in midweek and the club from Rotterdam didn't impress me at all despite winning 1:0...

Odds on AZ are a juicy 3.10, or thereabouts, I am seriously considering taking the away win here...I'd like to hear some opinions and thoughts from our dutch friends...I just think it's worth risking somthing like 3 units on the away win here...or would I be wasting my money!?

Certainly one of my finest bets this year, shame the stake wasn't a little higher!

NFM · 08-02-10, 19:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ziherash

Certainly one of my finest bets this year, shame the stake wasn't a little higher!

Funny thing is that they didn't really deserve to win

.
I was on AZ +0.25 myself. AZ had been playing decent matches and losing/drawing them lately. Last weekend they were not in their best shape but this time luck was on their side and they won.

bettor · 08-02-10, 22:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by NFM

Funny thing is that they didn't really deserve to win

.
I was on AZ +0.25 myself. AZ had been playing decent matches and losing/drawing them lately. Last weekend they were not in their best shape but this time luck was on their side and they won.

Agree with that, AZ was fortunate to win. But that is how it goes, you should always back the team whose performances are good despite their respective results. In this case, it was AZ ;-) GL with your other bets.