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Old 15-04-12, 00:07   #1
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Default Bayern Munich - Real Madrid 17 Apr

2.56 3.35 2.64
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Old 16-04-12, 00:14   #2
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Really tough match .Germans will bet for Bayern , Spanish will bet for Real I will take some beer and just watch it .
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Old 16-04-12, 11:22   #3
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Early bets, becauze i'm suspecting odds to fall down..

In my eyes a very tempting offer is BTS @ 1.714
Real M is known with its shaky defence & powerful attack line
In the last matches Bayern obviously has problems with scoring of goals..
In the derby vs. Borussia they even missed a penalty,
Last game goalless draw at home vs Mainz 05 - this shows some difficulties upfront for the german team...
But tomorrow is the match of the year for them . After losing the title in Germany CL is the one & only chance for Bayern to make something really big this season. So victory at home vs. REal is absolutely must-have for them.

Additional bet also here - Over 2.5 @ 1.862

GL
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Old 16-04-12, 12:18   #4
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Hey ducky mate real is not known for his defensive frailties actually as all mou teams tehy are based on good defending and on top games they often close the shop only in spanish primera being at least one class above they atack and often get caught off guard when they are up by 3+ ..so royal mac can defend and i guess it is what they will try to do here first against always sharp and with huge galons bayern bearing such quality ... if we add this is a cl semi then overs may be taken with a pint of salt imo ....
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Old 16-04-12, 12:50   #5
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Real Madrid is unbeaten in the CL.
And away they are really strong. Won every awaygame in the groupstage.
But in Moscow they got the equalizer in the 92' min, but Real was better in the game.
Of course now with Bayern the "first" stronger team Real Madrid will face.
But with the offence line from Real they will score 100% in Munich. I dont believe that CR7, Benzema, Higuian and the others will fly without a goal back. Bayern at home will score too.
Most of the players were rested against Mainz, they gave not 100% so the game ended 0:0.
Against Real they will give more than 100% and all key players will start.
But the history speaks for Bayern. In Munich Bayern won 8 from 9 games (!) and only one draw. I think this will motivate them really much. But Mourinho know how to play such games.
I think the best bet ist both teams 2 score @1,61 but i think its better to watch it live and see how the match is doing. But Bayern is not the Bayern in the years ago. Such a **** bench Bayern hadn't since years! They only have good players in the first 11. Real have in the first 11 and in the bench stars! I believe Real will not loose this, my call is 1:1 or 1:2
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Old 16-04-12, 14:25   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by litost View Post
Hey ducky mate real is not known for his defensive frailties actually as all mou teams tehy are based on good defending and on top games they often close the shop only in spanish primera being at least one class above they atack and often get caught off guard when they are up by 3+ ..so royal mac can defend and i guess it is what they will try to do here first against always sharp and with huge galons bayern bearing such quality ... if we add this is a cl semi then overs may be taken with a pint of salt imo ....
Agree with your post but the bold part is just untrue. Real madrid often concedes in la liga when it is still close. Just a couple of examples of recent matches gijon (0-1), atletico (1-1), betis (1-0, 2-2), levante (0-1), zaragoza (0-1), bilbao (0-1), mallorca (1-0). So from the last 9 matches in the league where they conceded and did not win they conceded 7 times goal which put them behind or level.

In europe they tend to be a but more defensive. But in La Liga they often concede when it is still close.

Last edited by Rolo1984; 16-04-12 at 14:27.
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Old 16-04-12, 15:13   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lame duck View Post
Early bets, becauze i'm suspecting odds to fall down..

In my eyes a very tempting offer is BTS @ 1.714
Real M is known with its shaky defence & powerful attack line
In the last matches Bayern obviously has problems with scoring of goals..
In the derby vs. Borussia they even missed a penalty,
Last game goalless draw at home vs Mainz 05 - this shows some difficulties upfront for the german team...
But tomorrow is the match of the year for them . After losing the title in Germany CL is the one & only chance for Bayern to make something really big this season. So victory at home vs. REal is absolutely must-have for them.

Additional bet also here - Over 2.5 @ 1.862

GL
dunno why but ive just think the opposite, (didnt see this post, tho)

madrid knows that barça is coming, they are underdogs there, the most important 2 matchs incoming within 4 days bayern, in munich, and barça, in barcelona

if i were mourinho, and knowing about barça, he knows that would be difficult even get a point there, i would be careful here, vs bayern, because 2 followed fails would be rlly bad, madrid, imo, vs big teams, they tend to fail, they fail hard, but thats my opinion, dont know what will happen.

bts? well, as i mentioned before, i think they wont risk so much, its also true that a goal there would be rlly nice, and a victory will put em even in the final, on the other hand we are talking about bayern, we are talking about a final that would be played in their own arena... if they are not motivated... xD
ive also seen that realmadrid comes from several bts in la liga, stupid goals sometimes, but nvm, i believe in stats, and i think that this one or the next one, wont be a bts match/s.

i have to say also that im not a fan of real madrid, neither barça, but im a little biased cause i hate madrid a little, however i think i kept this post a bit objective

to sum up, i would bet on under, or bayern dnb, but low stakes, i keep thinking that madrid will again fail against the good teams.
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Old 16-04-12, 15:19   #8
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yes you are right it is not about being 3 up i meant when they are not 100% focus wich hapens in such teams often as they play every 3 days through the season ......
but in my mind the message this real shown in big games it is they can defend properly apart from those spells where they conceded in set pieces wich is a focus thing mainly .... so i would not say tehy can not defend ...

this said last games when they wre supoused and looked like in right frame of mind like against valencia and atletico they shown weaknesses in their overall game both valencia and atletico that unlike half the league teams bear quality to test how royal mc bugger shall do in europe ag big guns really had their chances and some spells controled game and showed real had soem gaps within lines defending .... real under mou in such games often left not room for surprise for rivals .....
ronaldo alone beat atletico but this will not hapen always ....

so did gijon yesterday with trejo and co really testing real but alonso was suspended so probably not something to take as measure ....

i have and imo with proves behind doubts wether soem real players really can show same stuff as in la liga or against minnows in europe imo likes of higuain & benzema (disapears sometimes) and in big games may fade are big ? ...another ? is wether ozil will turn up wich is imo the main factor for real to beat bayern ...if we see the good ozil fired fast and thunder and with his class then the rest specially benzema will show .... but ozil somtimes looks either not fit enough or uninterested ...probably mou may field di maria instead tough playing in germany ozil has more tickets to be in starting 11 .....

i do not think ronaldo alone can win game sag top guns like bayern .....


tals here in teh media profile bayern as a very strong team atacking but with holes in the back .....
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Old 16-04-12, 15:20   #9
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Judging the outcome of first leg matches like this can be very tricky, but for me there is little doubt which team will advance to the final in Munich.
And that team is Real Madrid!

Over 2 legs I don't give Bayern much chance. Bayern will be fully motivated and will give 120% just as Robben said they must, but I expect the same from Mou's men. So the substatial difference in quality between the sides should decide the outcome.

Bayern may suprise in the first leg and manage a positive result, but over 2 legs it's almost mission impossible for the Germans imo...

I will take Real to qualify @ 1.50 (local bookie)
Stakes 9/10
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Old 16-04-12, 23:50   #10
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Madrid has important 3 matches ahead. Bayern away, Barcelona away, Bayern home.. I agree with Ziherash and say that Real will be the one to qualify for the Final but it's risky to bet them for an away win against Bayern.

Personally I watched last Bayern match against Mainz and Bayern could get only draw because coach rested important players for this match. Especially after loosing title in Bundesliga this is their only chance.

On the other hand, I believe that Real will keep the tension low because of upcoming away match in Camp Nou. Difference is 4 points and 3 matches left. They do not want to lose Spanish title again otherwise "adios Mourinho".

Local odds are:
2.60 - 3.20 - 2.50

but I'll go Bayern +1 (1.43) because they have to finish this match in advantage before Bernabeu match so they will take any risks or over +3.5 goals (2.80) because both sides are so capable to score and real will reply anykind of goals from bayern.

---------------------------------------------------
SOME STATISTICS

Bayern Munich CL home matches: 6/6 win, scored +16 (19/3) average 3.1 goals per match

Bayern Munich 2 - 0 Marseille
Bayern Munich 7 - 0 Basel
Bayern Munich 2 - 0 Manchester City
Bayern Munich 3 - 2 Napoli
Bayern Munich 3 - 1 Villarreal
Bayern Munich 2 - 0 Zürich (early Play-off)

Real Madrid CL away matches: 4/5 win, scored +9(10/1) average and 2.0 goals per match

Apoel Nicosia 0 - 3 Real Madrid
CSKA Moscow 1 - 1 Real Madrid
Dinamo Zagreb 0 - 1 Real Madrid
Lyon 0 - 2 Real Madrid
Ajax 0 - 3 Real Madrid

Top scorers:

Bayern Munich:
Mario Gomez 39
Arjen Robben 16
Franck Ribery 14

Real Madrid
Cristiano Ronaldo 53
Karim Benzema 29
Gonzalo Higuain 25

last 10 matches between each other:
1999/2000 CL 09.05.2000 FT B.Munih 2 - 1 R.Madrid
2000/2001 CL 01.05.2001 FT R.Madrid 0 - 1 B.Munih
2000/2001 CL 09.05.2001 FT B.Munih 2 - 1 R.Madrid
2001/2002 CL 02.04.2002 FT B.Munih 2 - 1 R.Madrid
2001/2002 CL 10.04.2002 FT R.Madrid 2 - 0 B.Munih
2003/2004 CL 24.02.2004 FT B.Munih 1 - 1 R.Madrid
2003/2004 CL 10.03.2004 FT R.Madrid 1 - 0 B.Munih
2006/2007 CL 20.02.2007 FT R.Madrid 3 - 2 B.Munih
2006/2007 CL 07.03.2007 FT B.Munih 2 - 1 R.Madrid
2010/2011 FRI 13.08.2010 Pen B.Munih 0 - 0 R.Madrid

all the matches between each other:

Bayern 10/19
Draw 3/19
Real 6/19

last HOME matches for Bayern:

Bayern 8/10
Draw 2/10
Real 0/10

REAL MADRID HAS NEVER WON AGAINST BAYERN IN MUNCHEN !!

-----------------------------------------------------------

any information on suspended or injured players?!

Is it hard to predict who can score the first goal? Odds are really satisfying here

This is just what I think, bet whatever you feel

p.s. Final match is in Munchen so if Bayern can somehow qualify for Final, they will play at home

Last edited by yigitt; 17-04-12 at 00:55.
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Old 17-04-12, 00:22   #11
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Will Tymoschuk be starting beside Schweinsteiger?
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Old 17-04-12, 00:41   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paddy_Irish View Post
Will Tymoschuk be starting beside Schweinsteiger?
Tymoschuk was just back-up last match while Toni Kros was resting for this match on the bench. I believe bayern coach rest important players (such as Toni Kros, Ribery, Lahm and Thomas Müller) for this match and they will start with Schweinsteiger - Toni Kros as MC and Robben-Ribery as wingers and Thomas Müller - Mario Gomez as striker..
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Old 17-04-12, 02:10   #13
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Well first thought comes to mind is a draw. And there are signs for that...

1.Bayern diddnt lose a single match at home in CL stage, not even a draw!...
2.Real diddnt lose on away games on CL.
But the real thing s that Real became extra super this year with CR,Benzema,Ozil,etc with Mourinho Reloaded.
They ll be champions in league by %80...The morales re high.They conceded just six goals, they also have the best defensive record of the teams still involving in the CL.

Bayen started the season sluggish but they got better n better. They re superior on CL especially on home games. But they know real ll be hard nut to crack..They need to work very hard.

H2H:

29.02.2000 CL 29.02.2000 R.Madrid 2 - 4 B.Munih
1999/2000 CL 09.05.2000 B.Munih 2 - 1 R.MADRID
2000/2001 CL 01.05.2001 R.Madrid 0 - 1 B.Munih
2000/2001 CL 09.05.2001 B.Munih 2 - 1 R.Madrid
2001/2002 CL 02.04.2002 B.Munih 2 - 1 R.Madrid
2001/2002 CL 10.04.2002 R.Madrid 2 - 0 B.Munih
2003/2004 CL 24.02.2004 B.Munih 1 - 1 R.Madrid
2003/2004 CL 10.03.2004 R.Madrid 1 - 0 B.Munih
2006/2007 CL 20.02.2007 R.Madrid 3 - 2 B.Munih
2006/2007 CL 07.03.2007 B.Munih 2 - 1 R.Madrid
2010/2011 FRNDLY 13.08.2010 B.Munih 0 - 0 R.Madrid

Team News:

Jupp Heynckes:' I am not %100 sure whether the vice-captain Schweinsteiger will start due to lack of match practice n fitness.'(...But i think he ll play).Defenders Daniel Van Buyten and Breno are out.

Alonso and Di maria is back on the team.As we all know Carvalho and Lass re out.

Probable 11s:

BAYERN MUNICH
Neuer
Lahm, Boateng, Badstuber, Alaba
Schweinsteiger, Kroos
Robben, Muller, Ribery
Gomez (Maybe Muller ll get here (4-2-2-2))

REAL MADRID
Casillas
Arbeloa, Pepe, Ramos, Marcelo
Khedira, Alonso
Di Maria, Ozil, Ronaldo
Benzema

or if we see defensive Mourinho it should look like this

Casillas
Ramos Pepe Albiol Marcelo
Khedira Alonso Coentrao
Di Maria Ronaldo
Benzema







Im leaning towards to 1X(1-1 or 2-1) When i look at the H2H s(im not a %100 H2H believer and also i know its early years but still...) 2-1 is most certain... I also think Robben ll score. That should be considered with low stakes. I think Real ll be more defensive than usual games and try to counter much. It ll be a very hard game 4 sure...GL

Last edited by FRT5NY; 17-04-12 at 07:54.
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Old 17-04-12, 06:05   #14
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Bayern gets a lot of love but perhaps more than they should. They have Robben and Ribery who are not in great form at the moment.... A rusty Schweinsteiger coming out of a long injury, a totally out of form Muller(who might be benched) and a defensive line of Boateng, Badstuber and Alaba who don't exactly overwhelm you with confidence... They cant dominate bundesliga and in the CL they haven't been challenged.. Cant see any value on bayern.. It's either draw or Real for me
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Old 17-04-12, 07:29   #15
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Bayern Munchen-1.5

I'm sure I'm going to get alot of disagreement but I couldn't resist with odds @5.50 for the handicap home win. It was clear over the weekend that Bayern's mind were on this game and they are playing with extra motivation due to them hosting the final. It is also worth noting that Madrid will be playing Barca over the weekend and they will be satisfied to get a draw here. Bayern's offense has looked unstoppable at times with Gomez's finishing and Robben always thrives in these big games and I expect him to play well also.Madrid have been known to concede goals on the road and if Bayern score an early goal Madrid will push for the all important away goal and Bayern can take advantage and score. My prediction here is a 2-0 Bayern win.
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Old 17-04-12, 08:31   #16
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I'm also on Bayern. I'm sure Bayern won't lose in Munchen and i wouldn't be surprise if they win. Also BTS is very probable
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Old 17-04-12, 08:36   #17
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Im going with Real Madrid. Bayern played the last 3 games very bad. Real are in good shape!
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Old 17-04-12, 08:41   #18
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I can't agree with you.
I know that Bayern play very well with Real in home, but I take Real AH0 in sbo, odds 2,02.
Real Madrid attack is too strong to defence Bayern, Khedira and Alonso was important in this match, Schweinsteiger com back from injury, but he did not catch the rhythm of the match.


Real DNB sure as
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Old 17-04-12, 08:47   #19
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@Szef Elity: you said Bayern play very well with Real in home. Mourinho said, The story has no meaning, the story does not play.
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Old 17-04-12, 08:49   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by easyliving View Post
Bayern Munchen-1.5

I'm sure I'm going to get alot of disagreement but I couldn't resist with odds @5.50 for the handicap home win. It was clear over the weekend that Bayern's mind were on this game and they are playing with extra motivation due to them hosting the final. It is also worth noting that Madrid will be playing Barca over the weekend and they will be satisfied to get a draw here. Bayern's offense has looked unstoppable at times with Gomez's finishing and Robben always thrives in these big games and I expect him to play well also.Madrid have been known to concede goals on the road and if Bayern score an early goal Madrid will push for the all important away goal and Bayern can take advantage and score. My prediction here is a 2-0 Bayern win.
It would be a sin not to take a shot on Bayern -1.5 @ 5.25 in Bet365. At least with small stakes
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Old 17-04-12, 09:09   #21
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I predict Bayern to make it to the final in "Allianz Arena". Real Madrid are definitely on a high. It's just that eternal German discipline and team spirit that make me believe in German triumph. We saw what happened to Manchester United and what the little Ivica Olic did when everyone wrote Bayern off. Any other score than Bayern's defeat tonight will give good ground to Bavarians for a triumph in the semis. Unlike Barcelona, Real have often not shown ability to control things on the ground, even in cases when everything was to be decided at "Santiago Bernabeu". The draws in the last few weeks, that may be crucial in the fight for the title in La Liga, represent the best indicator that Real is not yet a mature and consistent team like Barcelona. Btw, in terms of Spanish teams, I like Real more than Barcelona.
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Old 17-04-12, 09:50   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yigitt View Post
REAL MADRID HAS NEVER WON AGAINST BAYERN IN MUNCHEN !!

There's a first time for everything.

I was watching Bayern - Mainz the other day....no Ribery or Robben, and Bayern without motivation, but one shot on goal in 70 minutes?

Are you kidding me?

Real is in way way better form.
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Old 17-04-12, 09:52   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Astr0 View Post
I predict Bayern to make it to the final in "Allianz Arena". Real Madrid are definitely on a high. It's just that eternal German discipline and team spirit that make me believe in German triumph. We saw what happened to Manchester United and what the little Ivica Olic did when everyone wrote Bayern off. Any other score than Bayern's defeat tonight will give good ground to Bavarians for a triumph in the semis. Unlike Barcelona, Real have often not shown ability to control things on the ground, even in cases when everything was to be decided at "Santiago Bernabeu". The draws in the last few weeks, that may be crucial in the fight for the title in La Liga, represent the best indicator that Real is not yet a mature and consistent team like Barcelona. Btw, in terms of Spanish teams, I like Real more than Barcelona.
No offence bu biggest BS i have read in a while. If barca is so much more stable howcome after 33 matches Real madrid is 4 points ahead of barca. If you ignore the h2h they actually got 7 points more against the other teams. How can you say that a team with more points is less stable than one with less points after 33 games? I really dont understand this

Again I dont see much reasoning in this topic why bayern should win. Discipline and teamspirit is not enough. Additionally, I dont think bayern is more of a team than real. Mourinho always seems to be able to make real teams of the teams he coaches. In the matches against barca you can see this team spirit.

I just look at quality. I dont think RIbery is very special anymore. Bayern's results have been foremost dependent on Robben. Others dont create much. Schweinsteiger back is important but he has no rythim.

Additionally, the last big games bayern played was against dortmund and they were not very impressive. Real just has more quality. I expect them to play organised and let bayern attack and try to stab them with fast counterattacks.
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Old 17-04-12, 10:15   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rolo1984 View Post
No offence bu biggest BS i have read in a while. If barca is so much more stable howcome after 33 matches Real madrid is 4 points ahead of barca. If you ignore the h2h they actually got 7 points more against the other teams. How can you say that a team with more points is less stable than one with less points after 33 games? I really dont understand this

Again I dont see much reasoning in this topic why bayern should win. Discipline and teamspirit is not enough. Additionally, I dont think bayern is more of a team than real. Mourinho always seems to be able to make real teams of the teams he coaches. In the matches against barca you can see this team spirit.

I just look at quality. I dont think RIbery is very special anymore. Bayern's results have been foremost dependent on Robben. Others dont create much. Schweinsteiger back is important but he has no rythim.

Additionally, the last big games bayern played was against dortmund and they were not very impressive. Real just has more quality. I expect them to play organised and let bayern attack and try to stab them with fast counterattacks.
It might be BS. I prefer a potential debate with you after the two legs. Cheers

P. S. Borussia Dortmund is better than Bayern in the domestic leagues, has (basically) already secured the title defense. Nevertheless, the "millionaires" have been out of Champions League for months.
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Old 17-04-12, 10:16   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rolo1984 View Post
No offence bu biggest BS i have read in a while. If barca is so much more stable howcome after 33 matches Real madrid is 4 points ahead of barca.

Barsa lost important points in games where they played with mixed ( mostly reserve squad ).

Real have only 4 points difference in domestic league and they playing against Barsa in Saturday. Don't forget about that because they probably will have Barsa in mind today.


I think that Bayern have great chance for good result.
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Old 17-04-12, 10:44   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dwyane View Post
There's a first time for everything.

I was watching Bayern - Mainz the other day....no Ribery or Robben, and Bayern without motivation, but one shot on goal in 70 minutes?

Are you kidding me?

Real is in way way better form.
it is just statistical information as you can see.. I posted that info because I was surprised to see no madrid winnings in munchen.

I know there is always first time for everything but this is just what I think. what I am saying is, this is bayern's last chance they know it is close to impossible to win in bernabeu so they will try to finish here.

of course real is a way better team. personally I hate real but they are so much powerful than bayern. I see bayern win only because real has nou camp away match next and they do not want to lose league title again. I guess mourinho will try to finish bayern match will all he can do after barca match with great fan support.

I hope bayern will protect virginity in munchen and that first time will not happen
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Old 17-04-12, 10:53   #27
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Real is of course stronger than Bayern, but Bayern is very, very good and can also win it! For me, it is 70-30 for Real to advance to the final and 50-50 in todays game! Everything can happen, it is hard to take some predictions! But, Real does not have Barca in mind, Barca game is the least important Real game till the end of the season! We can loose with Barca and still have 4 games to win and be champions! And that if Barca wins all of her games, so this is the most important game right now!
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Old 17-04-12, 11:18   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grgaldinho View Post
Real does not have Barca in mind, Barca game is the least important Real game till the end of the season! We can loose with Barca and still have 4 games to win and be champions! And that if Barca wins all of her games, so this is the most important game right now!
I'm talking about complex and huge presure and believe me, they will have Barca in mind because don't forget if they lose against Barca, they will play agains Sevilla & Atl. Bilbao, two clubs who wants European competitions so that story how "Barca game is the least important Real game till the end of the season" is BS.
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Old 17-04-12, 11:58   #29
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there is no way real has barsa game in mind .... it would be huge mistake and they should be 100% focus in cl semis just like cules ag chelsea .....no romm for mistake in knock out ...in the league still way to go ....
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Old 17-04-12, 12:45   #30
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if real madrid not win tonight this poor bayern then they do not deserve finals.
i will bet on Real Madrid and Real to win with 2 goals,only becuse poor defense b.m.
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