Champions League Qtr Finals (2nd Legs) 10/04/2018 - 11/04/2018

[latortuga]

[latortuga]

-Man City v Liverpool-

Man City proved in their derby game over the weekend that they haven't lost their scoring touch taking a 2-0 lead into HT, but it could have been much more if not for some horrible finishing by Sterling. This should give City some confidence that they are in with a chance, particularly given they won 5-0 against Liverpool in the league game earlier in the year, albeit with a man advantage. The return of Aguero is also a big boost, while I would expect to see Pep start Sterling or Silva on the right, after playing it safe in the 1st leg with Gundogan.

Klopp will know that he can't just sit and defend this one, despite restricting City to 0 shots on target in the 1st leg. It's expected that the front 3 of Mane, Salah and Fermino will all start, so plenty of threat of the counter for Liverpool.

Historically anyone who knows Liverpool's european history knows that they are a team full of drama and it would be surprising to me to see this club cruise to the semis. Therefore I'll definitely have some of CS 3-0 Man City at odds around 14.00 and if I can multi that in with Liverpool to go through on ET/penalties I reckon that could look pretty juicy.

The above bet will also act as insurance for my main bet of over 3.5 goals at 1.98

-Roma v Barcelona-

While neither team will openly admit it, both teams will be of the mindset that this tie is over and I think that could flow through to the way both teams play. On top of that, Barcelona have drawn their last 3 away games in the CL which leads me to believe there is a good chance we could see another in this game. Therefore I'll take CS 0-0 and CS 1-1 at 19.00 and 8.00 respectively and Roma +1 on AH

[ellas98]

As long as Liverpool can suffocate City and nip all attacks in the bud, I do not see them losing this game.
Salah was training with the team. If all three will start, I expect goals from Liverpool.
GL!

[AHTOH.]

Over 2.5 corners for Liverpool @1.57 and Man City over 1.5 goals @1.40 = @2.19 (bet365)

[Miccho]

Man City - Liverpool

Everyone expecting goals and it is logical, given the teams involved. Yet, I don't expect open game from Liverpool. Clearly remember Klopp in similar scenario - few years ago he won 4:1 vs Real Madrid with BVB and in the return leg Dortmund, which was a very attacking minded in his spell, played very compact and defensive football, and the Germans managed to suffocate Real Madrid pressure (game ended 2:0 with a late 2nd goal for Madrid).

In this game BVB were untypically pressing Real not deep in the opposition half ("geggen pressing") but around 10 meters inside BvB own half. The whole team stayed compact and sacrificed counter-attacking impulse, in order to secure solid defending.

I am sure Klopp will use similar approach. Of course, it is never certain how successful it will be, especially given Liverpool defensive woes.

I think the best bet here is Man City to reach 9 corners first @ 1.90 (bet 365)

The reasons are:
> City are chasing 3 goal deficit
> City produce enormous amount of corners, especially in home games. Even in games when City takes early lead, they frequently reach 9-10 corners. Now they have to recover 3 goals, so I expect corners flying here and there for City
> Liverpool expected to sit back and close the center in front of the penalty area, so City very likely will attack mostly from the flanks
> In the first leg City sacrificed a winger (Sterling) for center midfielder (Gundogan). Yet, they still produced many corners (8 corners, I reckon). Now they will play with their typical formation with Sane and Sterling on both flanks.

I personally expect City to go well above this line - probably 14-15 corners might be reached.

[Miccho]

Roma - Barcelona

It is game over for Roma. The Wolves know they stand no chance and they got trouble in Serie A - their CL place is in danger. I don't think they will rotate, they will with full strength, but I clealry expect them to play with lower intensity than usual.

Barca this season is the most unusual Barca I have ever seen. They look like Italian team from the 1980s and early 1990s. Playing with minimal intensity, saving effort, focusing on keeping clean sheets and winning with 2:0. The only high scoring game I can recall lately was against Girona, but it was due to Girona's suicidal tactics of high defense line (like Rayo Valecano under PAco Jemez), not due to Barca putting some big effort.

Okay, this is not attractive Barca to watch, but I understand manager Valverde. The team was left by the directors with short bench and no real alternative of super star Neymar. Dembele got injured early on and missed most of the season, but even now it is obvious this boy is miles below the level of Neymar. So, Valverde had to deal with substantial downgrade in Barca attacking quality after Neymar left.

Also, the team is aging. Iniesta, for instance, is a magician and a genius, but he cannot run with the same intensity like before. He didn't get enough rotation before the arrival of Coutinho. Bench guys like Andre Gomez (Litost ), Denis Suarez etc proved to be a complete waste and totally useless. In addition, Luis Suarez is not having his best season - maybe due to the new formation and to the absence of Neymar to back him.

The bottom line is Valverde had to go with this energy saving tactical approach, even if it is ugly. Otherwise, Barca would not have been able to maintain good tempo throughout the competition.

Tonight I expect nothing different from Blaugranas. They got the 1/2 finals in their pockets, they won't "run for their lives". Slow, controlled football - this is what we will see from Barcelona.


Under 3 Goals @ 2.10

[ellas98]

Roma - Barcelona

It is game over for Roma. The Wolves know they stand no chance and they got trouble in Serie A - their CL place is in danger. I don't think they will rotate, they will with full strength, but I clealry expect them to play with lower intensity than usual.

Barca this season is the most unusual Barca I have ever seen. They look like Italian team from the 1980s and early 1990s. Playing with minimal intensity, saving effort, focusing on keeping clean sheets and winning with 2:0. The only high scoring game I can recall lately was against Girona, but it was due to Girona's suicidal tactics of high defense line (like Rayo Valecano under PAco Jemez), not due to Barca putting some big effort.

Okay, this is not attractive Barca to watch, but I understand manager Lopetegiu. The team was left by the directors with short bench and no real alternative of super star Neymar. Dembele got injured early on and missed most of the season, but even now it is obvious this boy is miles below the level of Neymar. So, Lopetegui had to deal with substantial downgrade in Barca attacking quality after Neymar left.

Also, the team is aging. Iniesta, for instance, is a magician and a genius, but he cannot run with the same intensity like before. He didn't get enough rotation before the arrival of Coutinho. Bench guys like Andre Gomez (Litost ), Denis Suarez etc proved to be a complete waste and totally useless. In addition, Luis Suarez is not having his best season - maybe due to the new formation and to the absence of Neymar to back him.

The bottom line is Lopetegui had to go with this energy saving tactical approach, even if it is ugly. Otherwise, Barca would not have been able to maintain good tempo throughout the competition.

Tonight I expect nothing different from Blaugranas. They got the 1/2 finals in their pockets, they won't "run for their lives". Slow, controlled football - this is what we will see from Barcelona.


Under 3 Goals @ 2.10

Nice write up! Except the manager is Valverde

[Miccho]

Nice write up! Except the manager is Valverde

I am an idiot. Of course, I meant Valverde...

[weedy]

I agree with the under tonight, seems like the most obvious play, considering Barca is a different team on the road.

The main difference with Barca this season, it's that they are more pragmatic. There are a couple of factors that have changed Barca's game and some changes were forced by the circumstances. Needless to say that Neymar's departure was a big blow, to Barca's offensive game plan. I never truly liked Neymar when he was at Barca, i only valued him as a vital part of MSN, which in hindsight will remain one of the most deadly attacking trios, that have ever played the game, especially because of their natural chemistry. Apart from that, i never liked his behavior on the field, his lack of respect for some opponents, his impulsivity, that hurt the team more than once, while his outside the pitch behavior was no better. So Barca were totally blindsided by his departure and made a panic move, in signing Dembele, whom they've already shown interest in the previous season, but Dembele refused them to go and work with Tuchel, in Dortmund. After Tuchel was fired from BVB and Dembele heard of Barca's interest, he forced his transfer by not training. This proved to be a mistake from his part, since he joined Barca without a proper preseason training and got injured fairly quickly. Dembele's injuries, because after the first one he got injured again and basically played just a few games in the first part of the season, changed the dynamic of the team. This situation is what forced Valverde to go from the classic 4-3-3 to a 4-4-2, which proved to be a challenge at times, cause Don Andres also had some problems and missed some games, leaving Valverde with very few attacking options. Barca is dependent on having a creative midfielder, besides the obvious dependency of Messi, but with Coutinho's arrival it seems that void will be filled, also this may mean Don Andres will leave the team at the end of the season, although he signed a lifetime contract with Barca, his final answer will come at then on this month.

All these things explain why Barca hasn't been so dominant in their victories, also the schedule was kinda brutal this year, especially in January and February having reached the Cup Final and playing all those games. There is a silver lining to all this, Barca can really and properly defend nowadays and haven't made the silly mistakes from the last couple of seasons, maybe except for the recent game at Sevilla, although that game showed another thing that Barca was capable this season, to come from behind and salvage a point, or even win the game, like in some other occasions.

So unless Roma manages to score early here and put pressure on Barca, i don't see a lot of goals, Barca is a whole different beast nowadays and with the approaching end of the season they will save energy and be even more pragmatic, down the stretch.

[litost]

1-0 at 3rd ...GAME ON !!


..... and 1-0 !! ... GAME ON ?

[ellas98]

I really hope that now, that Liverpool survived this storm, we will see a different second half.
With a more dangerous Liverpool, I mean.

[bardo]

Bravo Roma Bravooooooo 3-0... Respect!

[Nikko]

ROOOMAAAAAA !!!! <3 <3 <3 Off to Barcelona forum hahahahaha

[weedy]

This has to be the biggest humiliation and failure in Barca's history

I wrote they didn't make silly mistakes this season and mistakes they made: Umtiti was dreadful, lost Dzeko on the 1st goal, Pique made a dumb penalty and Semedo's display can be resumed at the 3rd goal... i dunno why Valverde waited sooo long to make some obvious changes, but overall they've played like ****...

Total disgrace and shameful performance, unbelievable...

[mookie2015]

bigest upset in the history of the champions league. no one saw this coming.