View Full Version : Ventspils FK - Newcastle United 10 08
Vukasin Micunovic
02-08-06, 14:11
Ventspilis FK - Newcastle United 5.15 4.00 1.45
Latvian Ventspils dominates this years domestic championship.
Ventspils 16 12 4 0 29 9 40
at home 6 2 0 17 6 20
Newcastle is still not compact team - still without good attacker. Last friendly 3:3 against Villareal.
Any news from Latvia and Northern England about squad and motivation will be very welcome.
Will Damien Duff play in this fixture?
Normaly Latvians play well at home and Ventspils is really good this year. Any chances to grab 1 point?
2 years ago they even beat Bröndby in 2 matches (also 2nr round UEFA Q). 1st match at home ended 0:0.
And then they played 1:1 against Amica at home in next round.
So very strong at home for team from Baltic.
Still no news from Latvia? About motivation, etc.
Normaly Latvians play well at home and Ventspils is really good this year. Any chances to grab 1 point?
2 years ago they even beat Bröndby in 2 matches (also 2nr round UEFA Q). 1st match at home ended 0:0.
And then they played 1:1 against Amica at home in next round.
So very strong at home for team from Baltic.
Still no news from Latvia? About motivation, etc.
I remember that game vs Amica. Amica was leading till ~70-80 mins 1-0 away , but lost a late equlizer. Getting eliminated by a such a team as Amica (that year they was the poorest team of uefa cup groups, 0 points ;) ) doesn't make optimistic. And if Ventspils is on the same level, Newcastle will have no problem with them no matter what their strikers situation looks like.
Normaly Latvians play well at home and Ventspils is really good this year. Any chances to grab 1 point?
2 years ago they even beat Bröndby in 2 matches (also 2nr round UEFA Q). 1st match at home ended 0:0.
And then they played 1:1 against Amica at home in next round.
So very strong at home for team from Baltic.
Still no news from Latvia? About motivation, etc.
I remember that game vs Amica. Amica was leading till ~70-80 mins 1-0 away , but lost a late equlizer. Getting eliminated by a such a team as Amica (that year they was the poorest team of uefa cup groups, 0 points ;) ) doesn't make optimistic. And if Ventspils is on the same level, Newcastle will have no problem with them no matter what their strikers situation looks like.
Just look at some results of Latvian teams in this decade in UEFA competitions. It is not easy to beat them at home if motivated and if Newcastle will be unmotivated. Latvian teams are better as Lithuanian and Estonian. And English are not so much better and very overrated when playing in Europe. All depends on motivation of Newcastle. Just remember matches against Lillestrom.
Hmmm...maybe you should tell us one reason why Newcastle wouldn't be motivated for this match? They are aiming at least for Group stage in UEFA Cup this year and have definitely quality to go all the way to semi-finals.
Also the match won't be played at regular home stadium of Ventspils as it doesn't fulfill the UEFA regulations or something!
Newcastle are close to sign Thomas Gravesen from Real Madrid this week since another midfield anchor man Amy Faye are clear for Charlton transfer. A striker should be verge of signing as well but it's hard to say who it will be as we're being linked to pretty much every single guy available for a minimum price tag of 10 million pounds!
Damien Duff should be able play against the Latvians and at the moment it looks like there's not too much injury worries either for Newcastle as Kieron Dyer is the only player to miss out. Our defence was a mess once again in a training match against Villarreal during the weekend but I doubt that Ventspils are able to put up an offensive play like Villarreal did...
Roeder have played 4-5-1 and 4-4-2 formations in pre-season matches so far and the latter have worked way much better so the one below is my strong suggetion for a starting line-up...
Given
Carr Bramble Taylor Babyaro
Parker Emre
Solano Duff
Luque
Ameobi
Any news from Latvia about motivation, lineup and form?
As I know Ventspils draw last domestic games against Ditton at home.
NUFC: United flew out of Newcastle on Tuesday with the following squad:
Given, Harper, Krul - Carr, Babayaro, Taylor,
Bramble, Moore, Ramage, Boumsong, Huntington - Butt, Parker, Solano, Emre, Duff, Pattison, N'Zogbia, O'Brien, Milner - Ameobi, Luque
Source: www.nufc.com
A few youngsters(Krul, Huntington, O'Brien and Pattison) selected into the travelling squad but I doubt they'll get any pitch time.
you are so wrong about Latvian teams,yes they are better than Estonian,but not better than Lithuanian,i gues Newcastle wil havo no problem with Ventspils
Hm... If you have looked results in UEFA competitions in past years it doesn't look like that. I believe Kaunas is one of the best Baltic teams, but Ventspils is really strong playing at home in European competitions.
Is there some kind of Baltic cup where teams from all 3 countries meet?
Metalurgs Leipaja (I hope I spelled it right) got trashed easily at home with Dinamo Kyiev. Newcastle I reckon is not on that level as Dinamo, but they should win this game for sure... (I forgot to say that Liepeja is there abouts with Ventpils more or less)
And Ventspils barely managed to beat poor Faroe Island team. :P
Just hope they won't resurect like Rabotnicki did after their two 'great' games they had with LUX team. :roll:
And then Newcastle won easy 3:0 away with Lillestrom which is making me more sure about them winning in Latvia also... They struggled in first leg, but they showed their class in second game.
They are there about more or less, I forgot to say so edited my post.
So you're saying Ventspils is on much better level then Lijepaja?
They are there about more or less, I forgot to say so edited my post.
So you're saying Ventspils is on much better level then Lijepaja?
I am looking at this year statistics. Last year the position of teams were just the oposite.
B.S. I hope not (the level off course)
I'm from Latvia.
First of all I want to say, that Ventspils have good result only in latvian championship.
All of you have inncorect opinion about latvian football. Level of our championship is low.
Newcastle will beat Ventspils without any questions. In my opinion, Newcastle will score more than 5 goals.
....So you can earn lot of money on this match.
...And sorry for my bad english! Good luck! :wink:
LOL Interesting post!!!!! :roll: I agree that level of our championship is low, but as for Newcastle will beat Ventspils without questions or 5 goals in game... 8O IMO Ventspils can hold draw in this game...Quite good bet is +1,5 on Ventspils, but for 1,65 odd wich gives fonbet is no value on it...My bet in this game will be Under 2,5, because Ventspils will stay in defence and will be happy if it ends 0-0, and Newcastle IMO will not run forward to score, because they know that there is one more game!!! As it will be full stadium in Riga Ventspils definetly will try not to lose...And BTW, Ventspils is absolutely the same level as Liepaja (maybe little bit better @ the moment) and IMO Newcastle is not so strong as Dinamo K, so I hope it won't be such crush as with Kijev.... :?
Under 2,5 -7/10
Ventspils best forward Vits Rimkus get injury!
Words of NU coach:
"We need to win the game, regardless of where it is, so the aim on Thursday will be to go out there and do a professional job, get a decent result, and finish it off at our place."
Game take place at Riga.
How big is field... grass condition etc also how far away is this ground from Ventspils home field?
Metalurgs easy conceed goals against Dynamo but not big deal from that coz look like that was fishy games with much crashed odds and heavy bets on asians.
Riga is some 200 km away from Ventspils.
Great preview available at Newcastle-Online.com
http://www.newcastle-online.com/news.php?subaction=showfull&id=1155131264&archive=&start_from=&ucat=&
Shay Given
Stephen Carr----------Craig Moore----------Steven Taylor----------Celestine Babayaro
James Milner----------Scott Parker----------Belozoglu Emre----------Charles N'Zogbia----------Damien Duff
Shola Ameobi
Zozo the Duke
10-08-06, 02:10
Kadrs, i wouldn't bet on under goals in Newcastle match. Here is my pick from www.bettingadvice.com
Ventspils – Newcastle
Pick: Newcastle
Odds: 1.45 @ Intewetten
Stake: 6/10
Newcastle’s goal is to reach group stage in UEFA Cup and they will have a relatively easy job this round against Ventspils. Although the Latvian championship is way ahead the English and Ventspils are on the top of the table without single loss this season, I rate Newcastle as huge favorites in this match.
Newcastle under Roeder is playing nice, liquid football. They are dictating the tempo of the game and creating lots of opportunities although they are not having many strikers in the team (to be more precise, they do not have even single one good striker in the team). Their midfield is the strongest part of the team and with addition of Duff, they posses enough quality in this part of the field to match even the best teams. The defense is still not on the top level, in fact Newcastle defense haven’t been on even on average level for some time. Bramble was terrible against Villarreal in the friendly match and I hope he won’t start. Taylor and Moore on the Central defender positions will be better solution, in my opinion. Also left back Babayaro is very weak and that left defensive side is the worst part of the team. I just hope that Ventspils are not having fast and dangerous right winger. And attack… everybody is saying that Newcastle is not having strikers and because of that they do not want to put their money on Newcastle. I’ll just remind them of Newcastle’s recent scores, against Villarreal they scored 3, against PSV 2, against Norwich 2, against Lillestrom 3 and only on the first match of the season Newcastle failed to impress upfront. Now with Duff available they will be even more dangerous in the attack. I expect Ameobi and Luque to be first choice attackers. Luque started to play like he used to play and he will be, imo, the most dangerous player and the plaer to watch on this match.
For Ventspils I do not know much, but I know that they are the best Latvian team at the moment. They are without loss for 16 matches and they scored 29 and conceded 9 in their domestic championship. But Newcastle is not the team from Latvia and they are much stronger than any Ventspils opponent.
Given – Carr, Bramble, Taylor, Babayaro – Solano (or Milner), Parker, Emre, Duff (or N’Zogbia), Luque (or Duff), Ameobi are the players that should start this match. And you must agree that these are to much for Ventspils. I believe that Newcastle will dominate and that they will decide the team that will qualify even on the first match.
The match will not be played on the Ventspils ground because their stadium do not fin in UEFA standards. It will be played in Riga 200 km away
ok anyone can compare latvian and lithuanian leagues at the moment? which league is better organized and how would you compare Ventspils to Suduva?
which is more safe in your opinion?
bet on Brugge or bet on Newcastle?
As it is the first leg the ht/ft should be draw/newcastle I guess. Favourites always start a bit careful because they don't know the opponent well. it might take some time to score a goal especially if newcastle players underestimate ventspils. liverpool - haifa match was something like that but yeah haifa is better than ventspils. Yeh Newcastle might be better than Liverpool but remember that they play away which can always be tricky.
FK Ventspils - Newcastle United FC
Pick: UNDER 2.5 Odds: 2.00
Bookmaker: Interwetten
Uefa Cup,2nd qualifying round-1st leg!
Newcastle will travel far away from their country to face Ventspils from Latvia.Becouse their stadium doesn't satisfy Uefa's standards the game will be played in Riga at Skonto Stadium.
The given competition cannot be of immensely much interest for a pretty big english side,this is why I expect them to serve with some buoyancy this first leg,especially against a rather unknown club from Eastern Europe.
Lillestrom managed to irk them enough to give them an extra-motivation for the second leg.Well in this case the situation is diffirent becouse Newcastle plays away first.
I think there is no need to tell you who's better but one thing should be specified and that is magpies recently poor attacking power.Shearer quit his career while Owen is injured.In these conditions Luque and Ameobi become their main attacking options but I rate them as under the average level of the squad.The new signing Duff will certainly boost their middle even more but he is not a target man,more an offensive middlefier.
Moreover,we should take into account what exactly the two teams want.As for Newcastle I am sure coach Roeder wants nothing but a win without unexpected events.A narrow win would be good for him as Ventspils is actually the best latvian team at the moment playing more defensive minded.
As for Ventspils it will be an honour to face Newcastle and they can only hope for a draw.This is why I expect them to start more defensive as usual which is certainly a precondition of a lowscoring result in the end.
If Newcastle's goal would be to win 3-0 I wouldnt touch this bet but I tend to think they only want an easy game.They might press in the first minutes but after the first goal(if any) I expect them to relieve the game waiting for the final whistle.
Hm...
I've already placed 30 Eu on single on g-bookers -> 2 @ 1.37
My oppinion is to go medium-stakes on this. For high stakes there is X2 option...
It *kind of* reminds me on story of Arsenal - Dinamo Zagreb...
They will be motivated (Dinamo), plus they are playing on home-field, plus Arsenal is playing without few players bla...bla...bla.... I mean c'mmon it IS ARSENAL WE WERE TALKING ABOUT :)
Same story here: NU is NU, I am absolutely positive that Newcastle will beat **** out of them even with it's 2nd team :)
This is first time for them to play with club like NU...
Lack of experience will show off here.
I just couldn't figure out why are the odds so high on NU (concidering the probabilty of draw-los)?
Maybe there is still sometnig that we don't know about ?
Some comments from coach Roeder:
"The pitch is very good, so we're happy with that, and we're happy to be playing here in Riga rather than Ventspils because of the time it would have taken us to travel there.
"It's an away leg in Europe, and we're happy to be away first. We aim to keep a clean sheet, and if we can score an away goal then I will be extra happy.
"It would be nice to take a lead back to Newcastle, but it wouldn't be the end of the world if we didn't.
"The important thing for me is that we leave here without conceding a goal to Ventspils and we can look forward to the return leg.
Roeder watched his players train at the Skonto Stadium on Wednesday afternoon, and revealed he has already decided on that team that will start tomorrow night.
"There are positions that are there for people to get the shirt," he went on.
"There are always places up for grabs in the starting line-up."
Source: http://www.nufc.premiumtv.co.uk
Very modest I have to say.
Roeder Aware Of Ventspils Strengths
MAGPIES boss Glenn Roeder has warned his players to beware of Ventspils' threat from set-pieces ahead of Thursday's UEFA Cup second qualifying round game in Riga.
Roeder has had reports from the Latvian outfit's last three games, and after watching a DVD of one of their recent matches he acknowledges that Ventspils pose a threat from dead ball situations.
Roeder said: "We have studied DVDs of Ventspils, and we have prepared properly. We are approaching this game in exactly the way we would for a game in the Premiership.
"You can see they work hard on the training ground for set pieces, corners, free kicks from wide areas.
"That is a part of the game that can turn out to be a leveller, where it doesn't matter about the difference in abilities.
"Set pieces and dead balls can be the same for both teams, so we are conscious that we don't want to give much away around the penalty area."
Roeder added: "We have settled in nicely, we have been well received by the people here in Riga and we're looking forward to the game.
"We're relaxed, but serious about the game because it is a massive match for us.
"I'm sure it is a very big game for Ventspils as well, and hey deserve respect.
"The pitch is very good, so we're happy with that, and we're happy to be playing here in Riga rather than Ventspils because of the time it would have taken us to travel there.
"It's an away leg in Europe, and we're happy to be away first. We aim to keep a clean sheet, and if we can score an away goal then I will be extra happy.
"It would be nice to take a lead back to Newcastle, but it wouldn't be the end of the world if we didn't.
"The important thing for me is that we leave here without conceding a goal to Ventspils and we can look forward to the return leg.
Roeder watched his players train at the Skonto Stadium on Wednesday afternoon, and revealed he has already decided on that team that will start tomorrow night.
"There are positions that are there for people to get the shirt," he went on.
"There are always places up for grabs in the starting line-up.
"The team for tomorrow has already been decided, but that doesn't necessarily mean that will be the team that lines up against Wigan in 10 days time."
Ventspils put cash before cup glory
Gary Johnson has told Glenn Roeder that FK Ventspils have already surrendered the most effective weapon in their modest armoury after insisting that the lure of cash has left them with little chance of springing a European upset this evening.
The Virsliga leaders will take on Newcastle in the Uefa Cup tonight but, having agreed to move the fixture to the Skonto Stadium in Riga in order to collect a cash windfall from Channel 5, Ventspils officials have conceded an advantage considered crucial to their hopes of shocking their esteemed opponents.
Johnson, the Bristol City manager whose past as Latvia's national coach has made him of great use to Roeder, last night predicted a comfortable triumph for United.
Yet had Ventspils not decided to switch the fixture from their 3,200-capacity Olimpiskais Stadium to the more accommodating home of the nation's champions, his pre-match judgement would have been made with much less certainty.
"By moving the game to Riga, they have played into Newcastle's hands a little bit," said Johnson, a long-time friend of Roeder who spent this summer studying with the Magpies boss on the Uefa Pro-Licence course at Warwick
"Their own stadium is little better than non-league standard and I'm not sure that a Premiership club would have fancied it. But playing at Skonto Riga's ground will be much more to Newcastle's liking."
Tonight's tie was initially scheduled to be played in Ventspils, 150 miles from the Latvian capital on the country's North-West coast but, with Channel 5 keen to screen the game and the Olimpiskais Stadium unsuitable for television broadcast, a request to switch the fixture to Riga was made.
The decision of their opponents to accede was one that was met with relief from within St James's Park.
"I expect Newcastle to go through comfortably," said Johnson, who has spoken at length with Roeder in recent days. "Ventspils could give them an uncomfortable time if they are at the top of their game. They will play a defensive game and get men behind the ball and Newcastle might find it difficult to break them down.
"They will look to hit Newcastle on the break, so Glenn will have to beware of that. I have had a couple of conversations with him about Ventspils and hopefully the things I have told him will have proved useful. Newcastle will not treat it lightly because they are no mugs."
By engaging the services of Johnson and Skonto Riga boss Paul Ashworth, United's preparations have been meticulous and their knowledge is thorough. Roeder has done all he can to ensure that his players are well briefed about what to expect from little-known opponents and is confident that no surprises await Newcastle.
"Ventspils is a club I know well and I have been able to tell Glenn all the ins and outs of it all," added Johnson.
"I have also filled him in about how Latvian teams like to play and what systems they use, and have even told him what hotels they should be staying in.
"I have told the people at Ventspils to enjoy the experience and make the most of it because it's not every day that they get a chance to play against players of this calibre. It's a game I'm really looking forward to."
Hi guys! I wait for this game a long time, from the first time I see the draw, why? Because I love money, and I'm absolutely sure that tonigt I will earn a lot from this game.
1. Venstpils is Latvian team, yes at the moment (because they was leaders few times more, this time around, but then lost a few games and stay in second or third...and after latest two games with Ditton(1-1) and Skonto(1-2), it seems that they maybe are a little bit tired) they are the leaders, but only in Latvia, so IMO, guys don't be scare from that term-leaders.
2. The biggest reason why I'm shore about Venstpils defeat, is the fact, that when our teams plays with a big- named oponents, they legs are always shaken, and the main objective is to reach money from the TV translation, and to get the shirt from named Newcastle stars...
And if you have some questions look at the results: Venstpils - Stutgart 1:4, Ventspils - Rossenborg 1:4 (few years ago), yes they have one draw with Bronby, but I remember it well, Brodby played almost only with team youngstars( because there was some scandal or something...) , and in adition this year score... Liepaja ( the same level as Venstpils, only more offensive team) -Dinamo Kiev 1:4, 0-4.
So, not to many to tell about Newcastle, I thin you can read it in many websites. But IMO, they will be strongly motiveited to reach the next round tonight, and English stile "Skonto" stadium in Riga( It's about 250 km from Ventspils), and ~ 300 suporters(It will be also advantage, because Ventspils have only about 30 fans) from England will help him.
So, the best choise in this game is Newcastle -1,5
IMO the score will be some 0-3, 0-4 or 1-4(our team loves that result :D )
Ok, but how motivated is Newcastle against a small European opponent?
Ok, but how motivated is Newcastle against a small European opponent?
Magpies had no problems with motivation vs Lillestrøm
Ok, but how motivated is Newcastle against a small European opponent?
Magpies had no problems with motivation vs Lillestrøm
Yeah, but the first match at home was ended in 1-1... :o
In the news Newcastle manager has told that tonigth is the real start of the season :idea:
Where do you know from that hometeam only will be supportet by 30 fans and that 300 will travel from England?
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/4982/newcastleiq5.gif
+ probably Luque will also take part in today's win over Ventpils :o
Where do you know from that hometeam only will be supportet by 30 fans and that 300 will travel from England?
Because I'm from Latvia ;) , and I know that Ventspils is supported only with ~ 30 real fans( fans who travel with team at away matches), of course there will be some few thousends of Latvians, but they will come to see famous Newcastle not to support Ventspils...
And about 300 English fans I read in newspaper... So don't be surprised!
Ok. It is not because I dont trust you. Just think that 300 is many from NU ;-)
Ok. It is not because I dont trust you. Just think that 300 is many from NU ;-)
Why 300 are to many :roll: , Englishmens love Latvia, and I think Riga is one of the most wonted visited country for them... :idea:
I agree with you Waldini that It should be easy win for Magpies. But still I won't bet on this match even I'm Newcastle fan :P Please don't forget that this is still away game for them. And there always will be 2nd chance to set score what they want. Against Lillestrom they choked at home becouse they still have another chance. I know they promised serious attitude but you know in real life many times goes in other way. IMO 1.35 odds are too low to touch. Of course I will be in stadium and cheering Newcastle but as betting material there is nothing to do. NO BET.
On paper, Newcastle should go to latvia and win this with ease.
What concerns me, is Roeder's comments on the game. The main aim according to him is a clean sheet and an away goal would be a bonus. I have seen Newcastle play negative, rubbish football in the past and its usually under a mission like that. While Newcastle are certainly capable of winning by 2, even 3 goals - Roeder's comments have made me re-think my earlier tip for a Newcastle win with the 1 goal handicap.
Basketbolists
10-08-06, 10:56
When 1.35 in away game is value? I guess only when 0-3 win is guaranteed. Do you see 100% that Newcastle will trash with such margin easily? I am not sure 100%.
Reasons:
1) No point of going 100% in this game and get someone hurt just before the first game of EPL against Wigan. Still 9 days away, but important point.
2) Trashing Ventspils in Latvia means one thing - no interest for the 2nd leg. And if there is no interest in 2nd leg then no use to go to the stadium. Thus, less money.
In the end 1.35 basically has no value. Of course, people can pick, but just picking all the loweoddsers is exactly the thing bookies want. Low risk for them and high risk for punters. So why the hack to bet on something that is high risk for you if there are outcomes that have more value and generate more return?
When 1.35 in away game is value? I guess only when 0-3 win is guaranteed. Do you see 100% that Newcastle will trash with such margin easily? I am not sure 100%.
Reasons:
1) No point of going 100% in this game and get someone hurt just before the first game of EPL against Wigan. Still 9 days away, but important point.
2) Trashing Ventspils in Latvia means one thing - no interest for the 2nd leg. And if there is no interest in 2nd leg then no use to go to the stadium. Thus, less money.
In the end 1.35 basically has no value. Of course, people can pick, but just picking all the loweoddsers is exactly the thing bookies want. Low risk for them and high risk for punters. So why the hack to bet on something that is high risk for you if there are outcomes that have more value and generate more return?
So your opinion is to not bet on away teams, if they can win easily at home? So today is no bet on Newcastle, no bet on Brugge, no bet on Bronby.. because why they have to win??? Ok Basketbolists I will skip away team's at the future :lol:
Basketbolists
10-08-06, 11:34
Do not try to tell me that now you are not picking something out of the context.
Prove to me that there is VALUE in 1.35 odds on away team.
Betting is all about value if you do it correctly. You bet on odds if you think percentages are on your side in the correct way.
There is a correct way of betting.
In this thread there are 2 types of posts.
10% stating that the odds are too low to pick (basically see no value)
90% stating that Newcastle will easily win without stating anything about teams, the way they could play and about other things that concern the game.
All that is said here is about NEWCASTLE WILL WIN. That's it, this is how for 50% of BA users ever think. The quality of this forum has been decreasing rapidly over the months already because every wiseguy who has ever placed a bet on MU and won now thinks that is a betting master.
Let's edit the thread now.
Do not try to tell me that now you are not picking something out of the context.
Prove to me that there is VALUE in 1.35 odds on away team.
Betting is all about value if you do it correctly. You bet on odds if you think percentages are on your side in the correct way.
There is a correct way of betting.
In this thread there are 2 types of posts.
10% stating that the odds are too low to pick (basically see no value)
90% stating that Newcastle will easily win without stating anything about teams, the way they could play and about other things that concern the game.
All that is said here is about NEWCASTLE WILL WIN. That's it, this is how for 50% of BA users ever think. The quality of this forum has been decreasing rapidly over the months already because every wiseguy who has ever placed a bet on MU and won now thinks that is a betting master.
Let's edit the thread now.
I agree with your point of view, but not in this situation, because I see value in 1,35 win or even 1,95 for -1,5 handicap on Newcastle. For me 1,35 is high in game which is a 10/10 bet for me and 8/10 on handicap. And believe me, I'm not that kind of guy who bet only on names. And one more thing, in your opinion, what odds will set you on this game, if you have to give them :?:
Basketbolists
10-08-06, 11:54
Thread edited. Cut to half.
MvP and RomBul - consider yourself warned. Constantly posting same messages all over again will result in you getting banned. If you write something - motivate. If you cannot not motivate - then just do not write anything.
We don't wanna watch how our players act
Newcastle are losers, and that is a fact.
Keep moving the team we are playing against,
Newcastle, remember, you're only the guest!
Stay patient while men in Blue-yellow score,
Just let them to get what they are looking for!
It's from Ventspils forum!!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:
My opinion....IMO not worth to take Newcastle @1,35....Very poor value....I had +1,5 and 1,75 odd on Ventspils and I'll take it 3/10, just for fun and for Latvia!!!! I still like Under quite lot, because it is great chance for Ventspils show Europe their strenght!!! Izzi money on Newcastle????? No way....Yes, maybe they'll win by 3-0, but also if it'll end 0-0 it won't be surprise for me......I'll be on stadium and hope that Ventspils will give good fight to Newcastle!!! IMO defence of our club is good, Gorks and Ndeki is tall and powerful central defenders and in "second stage" for Ventspils will be okei!!!!
2) Trashing Ventspils in Latvia means one thing - no interest for the 2nd leg. And if there is no interest in 2nd leg then no use to go to the stadium. Thus, less money.
thinking that way every team playing away should not win
Basketbolists
10-08-06, 12:05
For me to bet a 1.35 I would have to think that team in soccer has to have more that 85% chance of winning it. 1.35 kinda says that it is 75% in odds. For it to be value I would have to think that away team would win 3-0 or more. I think that Newcastle is heavy favo, but I doubt that they are more than some 70-72 by any means. that would be max. Thus basically everything below 1.45 is of no value whatsoever, thus no bet on such odds.
I work as a bookie myself so I can tell you that I would most likely set 1.40 taken into account that people would buy it anyway despite the fact that they are taking odds that are too low to take actually. In the end would end up even lower as people would bet, but I am ready to take some risk on that kind of odds in away game. So if people want to bet on inflated odds, then sure, no problem for me as a bookmaker, but as a punter I just think that it is useless.
Basketbolists
10-08-06, 12:06
2) Trashing Ventspils in Latvia means one thing - no interest for the 2nd leg. And if there is no interest in 2nd leg then no use to go to the stadium. Thus, less money.
thinking that way every team playing away should not win
The point was not about winning. Point was about trashing.
Zozo the Duke
10-08-06, 12:30
1.35 is absolutely crap. NO VALUE AT ALL.
@ Basketbolists
I know that Newcastle will not trash them with 4-5:0, but they cannot afford not to win and one accident goal in hte second leg to elliminate from the Cup. I hope you are getting my point. Roeder knows that his defense is maybe the worst in the Premier league and he knows that he cannot hold on to them. if this match finishes 0:0 and then in the second one conter attacks and then Newcastle will have to score 2.
I believe that Roeder said that (the main goal is not to concede) to prepare the fans for the draw (if it comes) and I believe that he'll go for an away win.
Newcastle has lagre number of supporters and there will be at least 30.000 even if Newcastle beats Ventspils with 4:0, but as you said, there will be no high score. I was thinking a lot before i took the pick (Newcastle @ 1.45) and also came to my mind that beating the handicap won't be very easy, so that is the reason why i took Newcastle without handicap
GL to all of us
PS, I agree about the quality and it is good to know that there guys like you who are keeping the level on high level (as much as you can)
Still no news about odds on this match in Latvia?
1.25 On Newcastle win (was 1.35) and 1.70 on -1,5 (was 1,95)
I have 1,4 at Slovenian local bookie. So it could have been a VALUE bet. Off course if you take in account circumstances: low number of home fans, decline of form of Ventspils in last 2 matches, big motivation for Newcastle to reach UEFA cup, 2-3 classes more quality in Newcastle squad, first real game for Newcastle in the season, Newcastle showed with previous result they can win away in Europe, previous results of Latvian and other Baltic teams in UEFA competitions.
Predicticted scores IMO - 0:2, 1:2, 1:1, 0:1, 1:3, 0:0 (from most to least probable result).
EDITED: it's 1,35 now.
Newcastle haven't impressed during the pre-season yet and especially the defence is looking horrible with the typical hazard mistakes. Magpies surely are capable of scoring plenty of goals despite a lack of profilic strikers as they're getting good support from the midfield.
Anyway...I really don't trust Newcastle here that much but of course I'm hoping for a clear win. A lot depends on the stategy of Ventspils if they're going for all out in defence. I wouldn't risk my money on Newcastle at such low odds and I prefer to wait for some reinforcement for the squad and it's looking that Gravesen is about to join during the next week and there are also strong rumours about Obafemi Martins and Dirk Kuyit 8)
Newcastle haven't impressed during the pre-season yet and especially the defence is looking horrible with the typical hazard mistakes. Magpies surely are capable of scoring plenty of goals despite a lack of profilic strikers as they're getting good support from the midfield.
Anyway...I really don't trust Newcastle here that much but of course I'm hoping for a clear win. A lot depends on the stategy of Ventspils if they're going for all out in defence. I wouldn't risk my money on Newcastle at such low odds and I prefer to wait for some reinforcement for the squad and it's looking that Gravesen is about to join during the next week and there are also strong rumours about Obafemi Martins and Dirk Kuyit 8)
But the odds in 2 weeks will be 1,05-1,2 maximum so again no value?! Against lower quality teams is more important to play with enough motivation than having stars in the team. It's true defence looks shaky (but that is common for Toonies).
Basketbolists
10-08-06, 13:47
Still no news about odds on this match in Latvia?
1.25 On Newcastle win (was 1.35) and 1.70 on -1,5 (was 1,95)
I have 1,4 at Slovenian local bookie. So it could have been a VALUE bet. Off course if you take in account circumstances: low number of home fans, decline of form of Ventspils in last 2 matches, big motivation for Newcastle to reach UEFA cup.
Well what do you know about all those factors? I guess pure zero.
Pretty much the stadium will be full. And those will be Latvians - it does not matter from Ventspils or not - they will wish Ventspils the very best and cheer for them. So 1st one is just irrelevant as it can be.
Decline of form - what do you know about oppositions they played? Ditton? Do you know a single thing about their style of play? That might be the toughest team to crack in Latvia and always hard to play against. All 3 top teams have struggled with them and if they continue to develop they will be in medals soon. In Cup semi, coach saved players for this match and lost it pretty fairly due to that reason.
Motivation of Newcastle to reach group stage - and Ventspils does not have any motivation? Or Newcastle has bigger than Ventspils? Anyway, are you friends with Newcastle players that you can speak about their true motivation in the match?
So overall you are talking meaningless stuff and totally unimportant phrases just to justify your pick or things that you have no clue about.
Pretty much the stadium will be full. And those will be Latvians - it does not matter from Ventspils or not - they will wish Ventspils the very best and cheer for them.
I don't know who will be cheering for Ventspils :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
Still no news about odds on this match in Latvia?
1.25 On Newcastle win (was 1.35) and 1.70 on -1,5 (was 1,95)
I have 1,4 at Slovenian local bookie. So it could have been a VALUE bet. Off course if you take in account circumstances: low number of home fans, decline of form of Ventspils in last 2 matches, big motivation for Newcastle to reach UEFA cup.
Well what do you know about all those factors? I guess pure zero.
Pretty much the stadium will be full. And those will be Latvians - it does not matter from Ventspils or not - they will wish Ventspils the very best and cheer for them. So 1st one is just irrelevant as it can be.
Decline of form - what do you know about oppositions they played? Ditton? Do you know a single thing about their style of play? That might be the toughest team to crack in Latvia and always hard to play against. All 3 top teams have struggled with them and if they continue to develop they will be in medals soon. In Cup semi, coach saved players for this match and lost it pretty fairly due to that reason.
Motivation of Newcastle to reach group stage - and Ventspils does not have any motivation? Or Newcastle has bigger than Ventspils? Anyway, are you friends with Newcastle players that you can speak about their true motivation in the match?
So overall you are talking meaningless stuff and totally unimportant phrases just to justify your pick or things that you have no clue about.
My apologies. I am not from Latvia and I don't now all this facts (I've been only once in my life in your country). I can only presume. And with no help from Latvian friends (others members of BA forum) I didn't get this valuable infos - till now (I wanted to have this infos some 2 days ago - specially about last game with Skonto and info about resting some 1st team players). Too late for me but still much apreciated. Thanx.
Basketbolists
10-08-06, 14:09
Pretty much the stadium will be full. And those will be Latvians - it does not matter from Ventspils or not - they will wish Ventspils the very best and cheer for them.
I don't know who will be cheering for Ventspils :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
Apart from those who are jerk enough to rout against Latvian in the stadium without any bet in their mind or Latvians who have bets against them. But knowing the approximate number of people betting in Latvia I still assume that those will be minority. ;)
I know that Newcastle will not trash them with 4-5:0, but they cannot afford not to win and one accident goal in hte second leg to elliminate from the Cup. I hope you are getting my point. Roeder knows that his defense is maybe the worst in the Premier league and he knows that he cannot hold on to them. if this match finishes 0:0 and then in the second one conter attacks and then Newcastle will have to score 2.
Nice thinking... And what about previous round??? Then they also couldn't afford to lose, because then one accident goal in the second leg (then it was even on the road so more dangerous) could eliminate them from the Cup! And in previous round Newcastle played against better team (in my opinion)! I hope You got my point... Thought, You also said that those 1.35 odds for Newcastle have no value which I agree! I wouldn't give Newcastle more than 70% to win this game and I would not take anything under 1.50!
And for those who are saying that Ventspils couldn't even comfortably win against GI (Faroe Islands)... if Ventspils had won some 7-0 at home and 4-0 on road then you wouldn't be betting on Newcastle??? I think that no one of you have seen those games! And as Ventspils coach said: our goal was to get to the next round, not to destroy GI, and he also said that fair result in first game would have been 10-1 not 2-1 as they wasted a lot of chances (as also didn't saw that game and I can only say that in press was written that Ventspils had something like 15 good goal chances)! So don't judge only from those games!
About the game...I don't even know what to say..it's mistery for me, becouse I have not seen Newcastle this season but if judging from their results in preseason games than I have to say that Ventspils have quite decent chance to score a goal and as I think that Newcastle should score at least twice (1-1 also ins't out of my cards) so I think that over is more probable than under but I personally I will wate Live Betting...
I agree that 1.35 for away win too low. But there is value on Newcastle to keep clean sheet with odds 2.0 (gamebookers)
I hope ('cause made a bet on Toonies) this game won't be similar to Olimpija - Liverpool some years ago at the same stage of UEFA cup. Liverpool scored than Olimpija leveled (or mayby other way around) and END of playing. If I remember corectly both goals were in 1st half. Liverpool wasn't motivated and not prepared enough to fight for a win. Olimpija (from Ljubljana-Slovenia) was at similar level as Ventspils nowdays and Liverpool slightly better like Toonies. Off course Liverpool won at home 3:0.
Basketbolists
10-08-06, 21:07
After watching the game I have to say that Newcastle had 2 decent chances and a goal from corner kick.
Ventspils had 1 excellent chance at the start of the game but failed to score in the 6th minute when S***316;esar***269;uks went 1 on 1 but failed to beat Given.
So after the game I can say that fair odds would have been 1.70 or something like that. Yes, Newcastle is better team overall, but Ventspils is already in the season and that is very important thing.
Magpies again had stupid mistakes in defense that might have cost them a lot.
Anyway, it proved again that 1.35 in away game is no value at all.
Someone asked me that he should not bet Bronby, NU, Brugge.
Well 1.50 on Bronby, 1.35 on Brugge, 1.35 on NU means that it would have been losing money anyway. So I feel like I have proved my point, if not then nothing to do.
1:0 Very hardly. It could also end 0:0. But in combination with Brugge, Herta and some others = Big $$$$$$$$$$$$
Guys thanks for your infos!!!!!!
P.S. Basketballists, totaly agree with your teory of Value bets. But I have a little different tactics in betting. Made specialy for our home local bookies I choose 3 games with more than 66,666% probability that are just made for this sistem (even if odds are sometimes to low - that is almost always at Slovenian local bookie) +some bankers. As today Brugge and with some luck NU (great performance by Ventspils definitely) and Shakhtar yesterday :lol: :lol: :lol:
anotha mug
11-08-06, 08:54
wasn't a very impressive one-nil was it. There are, as normal, still big problems with the newcastle defence and a better team than the latvians could exploit it.
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