View Full Version : Long odds/Combos with Kelly staking strategy record
Final Frontier
14-04-06, 18:29
I am normally a very conservative bettor, playing usually short odds (<2 and mainly Under/Over and AH) and allowing myself no more than carefully chosen 15 picks or so a week. I rarely play long odds, since i don't feel they are a part of my main strategy. So far, this has worked well the year, returning a decent profit and protecting me through the inevitable bad spells.
The truth is that this strategy can be a bit boring :lol: and i felt a lot of times that i have missed a lot of "value" chances in all kinds of odds. So, i have decided to start a small secondary bank, with the purpose of playing a broader selection of long odds and combos with aggresive staking. This isn't just for fun and a change of pace, it is for evaluating, first of all, how long can this style of play last and if there is a possibility of making profit. My plan is to take this small bank all the way to the end of the Mundial, if the edge is there, it'll happen.
I will use also the aggresive Kelly staking method, which i've never used before, since it requires a precise knowledge of the "value" of your bets. So, i'll take a risk, trying to quantify "value" in my picks. This means that i find a 30% edge in a 4.00 odd, this will result in a 10% stake (following the Kelly formula of S=(E-1)/(O-1), where S is the stake percentage, E is the edge in decimal, O the bookmaker's odds). I expect to make some adjustments in the selection of picks and the calculation of value during this "experiment", till i get the hang of it. The picks and playstyle that'll be presented here should never be taken as some sort of advice on what and how to play :D (..i guess this goes without saying!). Critique and suggestions are always welcome.
Here we go!
Final Frontier
14-04-06, 18:42
14/04/2006
No singles with long odds that i liked for this Saturday, so only combos made up from short odds.
BET 1
Combo of:
Hearts-Kilmarnock 1
Lazio-Livorno 1
Mallorca-Alaves Under
Odds: 3.43
Stakes: 6% (6)
BET 2
Combo of:
Egaleo-Ionikos Under
Wolfsburg-Werder Under
Odds: 3.18
Stakes: 5% (5)
BET 3
Combo of:
Marseille-Nancy Under
Nantes-Auxerre Under
St.Etienne-Lens Under
Odds: 3.15
Stakes: 7% (7)
BET 4
Combo of:
Manchester Utd-Sunderland 1
Arsenal-WBA 1
Le Mans-Monaco Under
Lille-Bordeaux Under
Odds: 2.82
Stakes: 8% ( 8 )
Final Frontier
16-04-06, 00:44
BET 1 WON
Stakes: +14.58
BET 2 WON
Stakes: +10.90
BET 3 LOST
Stakes: -7.00
BET 4 LOST
Stakes: -8.00
Current Bank: 110.48 Units
Final Frontier
16-04-06, 01:58
Three long-odds singles and two combos for Sunday. High staking for the singles since i believe they contain some decent value.
BET 5
Atromitos-Panionios 1
Odds: 4.00
Stakes: 11.00 Units
BET 6
Iraklis-Panathinaikos 1
Odds: 4.75
Stakes: 15.00 Units
BET 7
Getafe-Real Madrid 1
Odds: 4.00
Stakes: 10.00 Units
BET 8
Combo of:
Aston Villa-Birmingham Under
Hannover-Stuttgart Under
PAOK-Levadiakos 1
Odds: 3.92
Stakes: 7.00 Units
BET 9
Combo of:
Celtic-Hibernian 1
Galatasaray-Rizespor 1
Larisa-Olympiacos 2
Odds: 2.62
Stakes: 11.00 Units
Final Frontier
16-04-06, 23:19
BET 5 LOST
Stakes: -11.00
BET 6 WON
Stakes: +56.25 8O
BET 7 LOST
Stakes: -10.00
BET 8 LOST
Stakes: -7.00
BET 9 LOST
Stakes: -11.00
Current Bank: 127.73 Units
Final Frontier
17-04-06, 00:49
BET 10
Tottenham-Manchester United 1
Odds: 3.55 (Betfair)
Stakes: 8.00
Hmm...interesting, I'm curious how far will you go... I'm also by your side (even if I think it's not so good :? ) and I wish you luck!
Final Frontier
17-04-06, 18:37
I am curious myself too :lol: The goal is to make it to the end of Mundial with this style of play. The combination of high stakes and long odds means that there is a high chance of bankruptcy or not having a profit, but i am accepting the risk. So far, what i've noticed after the first 10 warming up bets:
- I shouldn't play combos made up from "muppet" picks where the value is hard to spot or clearly not there...
- The main choice of picks should be the ones where there is clearly a gross mispricing of odds, such as in the Iraklis-Panathinaikos game. Such picks are rare throughout the week though ( only apparent in 2% or less of total games for me). I expect to see a much larger percentage of pricing mistakes during the Mundial.
- In some cases it is worth playing the handicap instead of 1X2, as value doesn't really diminish (Getafe-Real match for example).
Final Frontier
17-04-06, 18:44
BET 10 LOST
Current Bank: 119.73 Units
Final Frontier
30-04-06, 10:36
Took a break during Easter, coming back to this again.
BET 11
Chaidari-Aris(Greece 2nd League) 1
Odds: 9.00
Stakes: 8.00 Units
Chaidari-Aris X
Odds: 4.50
Stakes: 15.00 Units
BET 12
Xanthi-Akratitos Correct Score 1-0
Odds: 8.00
Stakes: 3.00 Units
Final Frontier
02-05-06, 14:44
BET 11 LOST
Stakes: -23.00 Units
BET 12 LOST
Stakes: -3.00 Units
Current Bank 93.73 Units
BET 11 LOST
Stakes: -23.00 Units
BET 12 LOST
Stakes: -3.00 Units
Current Bank 93.73 Units
Heh, this guy can't be good tipster if he stop play when he lost some cash ;)
Final Frontier
17-05-06, 18:28
BET 11 LOST
Stakes: -23.00 Units
BET 12 LOST
Stakes: -3.00 Units
Current Bank 93.73 Units
Heh, this guy can't be good tipster if he stop play when he lost some cash ;)
I am not a tipster and i play at my own pace. Some weeks i might be too preoccupied with other things to find and place any appropriate bets for this style of playing, so there aren't any posted here. I didn't stop playing for good and the losses here are insignificant (so far). Actually, i liked this way of playing, i am sure i'll place more bets of this kind during the Mundial. Anyway, a bet for the CL Final:
BET 13
Barcelona-Arsenal Correct Score
1-0 Odds: 7.00 Stakes: 2.00 Units
2-0 Odds: 9.00 Stakes: 2.00 Units
0-0 Odds: 6.50 Stakes: 2.00 Units
1-1 Odds: 7.00 Stakes: 2.00 Units
BET 11 LOST
Stakes: -23.00 Units
BET 12 LOST
Stakes: -3.00 Units
Current Bank 93.73 Units
Heh, this guy can't be good tipster if he stop play when he lost some cash ;)
I am not a tipster and i play at my own pace. Some weeks i might be too preoccupied with other things to find and place any appropriate bets for this style of playing, so there aren't any posted here. I didn't stop playing for good and the losses here are insignificant (so far). Actually, i liked this way of playing, i am sure i'll place more bets of this kind during the Mundial. Anyway, a bet for the CL Final:
BET 13
Barcelona-Arsenal Correct Score
1-0 Odds: 7.00 Stakes: 2.00 Units
2-0 Odds: 9.00 Stakes: 2.00 Units
0-0 Odds: 6.50 Stakes: 2.00 Units
1-1 Odds: 7.00 Stakes: 2.00 Units
Uhm, better pick would be under 2,5 :!: :?:
All of ur picks are under, so better play under for these 4x 2.00 units and u will have bigger chance for win, cause 0-1, 0-2 belong to under too :)
Final Frontier
17-05-06, 23:05
BET 13 LOST
Current Bank: 85.73 Units
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