UNDER / OVER --> vlada ns [Archive]

vlada ns

04-03-06, 02:27

Hi everybody :)

I will post in this topic just under and over bets ... it will be some kind of valu under/over bets, in other words I'll bet just if odds are on my side --> I will calculate odds and if odds that booky give to us better then myne (calculated) I'll bet .

Myne starting bank is 100 % , and my stakes are from 1% to 5% in start , if my bank go to 150 % then my stakes go up together with bank (on 7.5% ... ) .

I will NOT post any analyse , I will just write :
EXAMPLE
As I calculate odds should be 1.27 , we have odd bet-at-home @ 1.65 so 5% stake ... something like that .

Oh yes, in bottom of every my post you can see statistic.

And I will stake money on every bet that I post here (but not same stake, I stake 2% on every my bet)

vlada ns

04-03-06, 02:42

04.03.2006

team : xanthi - egaleo

bookie : bet-at-home

odd : under @ 1.65 (my calculation give 1.27 )

stake : 5%

FT' Xanthi 1 : 0 Egaleo
----------------------------------------------------------

team : sochaux - bordeaux

bookie : bet365

odds : under @ 1.5 (my calculated odd 1.3 )

stake : 5%

Pst' Sochaux - : - Bordeaux
----------------------------------------------------------

team : kayserispor - fenerbahce

bookie : expect

odds : over @ 1.68 (my calculated odd 1.38 )

stake : 3%

FT' Kayserispor 1 : 0 Fenerbahce
----------------------------------------------------------

team : hertha - koln

bookie : bet365

odds : over @ 1.8 (my calculated odd 1.53 )

stake : 3%

FT' Hertha 2 : 4 Cologne
-----------------------------------------------------------

team : rkc - den haag

bookie : interwetten

odds : over @ 1.8 (my calculated odd 1.58 )

stake : 3 %[/b]

FT' RKC 3 : 0 ADO Den Haag

vlada ns

06-03-06, 00:05

3 bets won and 1 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

ok for this weekend we are 5.05 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 105.05 %

vlada ns

06-03-06, 17:27

06.03.2006

OK for today we have :

team : Salernitana - : - Padova

bookie : gamebookers

odd : under @ 1.45 (my calculation give 1.25)

stake : 5%

FT Salernitana 1 : 1 Padova

noerager

07-03-06, 14:01

Good start - can u tell a little about how u calculate the odds.

vlada ns

07-03-06, 16:47

4 bets won and 1 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

for now we are 7.3% in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 107.3 %

vlada ns

07-03-06, 17:10

vlada ns

07-03-06, 17:15

07.03.2006

for today 2 bets

team : Plymouth - : - Preston

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.65 (my calculation give 1.5)

stake : 5%

FT' Plymouth 0 : 0 Preston
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Reims - : - Bastia

bookie : betandwin

odd : under @ 1.5 (my calculation give 1.32)

stake : 5%

FT' Reims 0 : 1 Bastia

vlada ns

07-03-06, 21:43

6 bets won and 1 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

for now we are 13.05% in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 113.05 %

bluemoon

07-03-06, 22:37

Nice work mate!
8)

vlada ns

07-03-06, 22:57

Nice work mate!
8)

thank you 8)

v_m

08-03-06, 05:56

6 bets won and 1 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

for now we are 13.05% in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 113.05 %

good job!

u are defenitly good in OVER/UNDER

...keep it up ....

rado_tdr

08-03-06, 07:43

OK I have a question how did you chose the stake. How did you chose to put 5% or 3%.

noerager

08-03-06, 11:09

U do a very good job.

And by the way. Your english is not very bad. :D

Keep it up.

vlada ns

08-03-06, 13:27

thank you people :D

@ rado_tdr
I put on over 3% , on under 5% (but only here on BA, in reality I play all my bets with 2% of the bank ... and I play all bets that I post here)

vlada ns

09-03-06, 23:16

10.03.2006

friday night and two bets more :wink:

team : Pavia - : - Novara

bookie : betandwin

odd : under @ 1.5 (my calculation give 1.11)

stake : 7%

FT' Pavia 1 : 0 Novara
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Setubal - : - Porto

bookie : betandwin / interwetten

odd : under @ 1.6 (my calculation give 1.39)

stake : 4%

FT' Setubal 0 : 2 Porto

vlada ns

09-03-06, 23:24

on match Pavia - : - Novara I realy play with double stake (instad 2% I play 4%) because that is the best bet for this weekend and it is BIG value ...

just look at the link :

http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/italy/italian-serie-C-A-2005-2006/nextmatch.php?matchid=5962625

look at the bottom of the page , where are the 'Last 10 matches'

vlada ns

11-03-06, 01:19

8 bets won and 1 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

friday --> + 5.9 %

for now we are 18.95 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 118.95 %

vlada ns

11-03-06, 01:35

11.03.2006 saturday

team : Bordeaux - : - Toulouse

bookie : gamebookers

odd : under @ 1.5 (my calculation give 1.24)

stake : 5 %

FT' Bordeaux 2 : 0 Toulouse
------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Auxerre - : - Nice

bookie : gamebookers / betandwin / expect

odd : under @ 1.5 (my calculation give 1.29)

stake : 5 %

FT' Auxerre 2 : 0 Nice
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Nancy - : - Paris Saint Germain

bookie : gamebookers

odd : under @ 1.45 (my calculation give 1.35)

stake : 5 %

FT' Nancy 1 : 1 Paris Saint Germain
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Young Boys - : - Aarau

bookie : betandwin

odd : under @ 2.1 (my calculation give 1.52)

stake : 4 %

FT' Young Boys 2 : 1 Aarau

vlada ns

11-03-06, 17:23

12.03.2006 sunday

team : levadiakos - : - iraklis

bookie : gamebookers

odd : under @ 1.65 (my calculation give 1.33)

stake : 5 %

FT' Levadiakos 0 : 1 Iraklis
---------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Creteil - : - Reims

bookie : gamebookers / betandwin

odd : under @ 1.45 (my calculation give 1.33)

stake : 5 %

FT' Creteil 0 : 2 Reims
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Marseille - : - St. Etienne

bookie : gamebookers / expect

odd : under @ 1.45 (my calculation give 1.38 )

stake : 5 %

FT' Marseille 2 : 0 Saint-Etienne
------------------------------------------------------------------------
ITALY C1 / A
------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : monza - : - pro partio

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.45 (my calculation give 1.25)

stake : 5 %

FT Monza 0 - 1 Propatria
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : san m. - : - guilanova

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.4 (my calculation give 1.25)

stake : 5 %

FT San Marino 1 - 0 Giulianova
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : padova - : - pizzighettone

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.4 (my calculation give 1.33)

stake : 5 %

FT Padova 2 - 2 Pizzighettone
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
ITALY C1 / B
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : sangiovannese - : - perugia

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.4 (my calculation give 1.33)

stake : 5 %

FT Sangiovannese 0 - 0 Perugia
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : chieti - : - juve s.

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.4 (my calculation give 1.33)

stake : 5 %

FT Chieti 1 - 0 Juve Stabia
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
13.03.2006
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
team : pistoiese - : - lucchese

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.4 (my calculation give 1.33)

stake : 5 %

FT' Pistoiese 1 : 0 Lucchese

vlada ns

11-03-06, 20:58

11 bets won and 2 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

saturday --> + 2.25 %

for now we are 21.2 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 121.2 %

vlada ns

12-03-06, 21:49

18 bets won and 3 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

sunday --> + 11 %

for now we are 32.2 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 132.2 %

And we have one more bet in monday 13.03.2006 ( pistoiese - : - lucchese ) that incidently finished in sunday .

vlada ns

14-03-06, 01:16

19 bets won and 3 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

monday --> + 2 %

for now we are 34.2 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 134.2 %

Nerko

14-03-06, 13:54

19 bets won and 3 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

monday --> + 2 %

for now we are 34.2 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 134.2 %
I've just saw your strategy and you are really doing a good job :wink:
Keep up the good work 8)

vlada ns

15-03-06, 00:12

I've just saw your strategy and you are really doing a good job :wink:
Keep up the good work 8)

thank you , I will keep up ...

I make some research and I think that is better to play my bets in system ... if I have 7 bets for saturday my research show that is better to play in system 2 / 7 ... if we have some X number of games then is better to play in system 2 / X ... if we make profit then in system is bigger profit ( but if we lose money in system we lose more ) .

If someone don't know what is system 2 / X it is like dubles but you must make every posible combination of X number of games .

if I wont to play system 2 / 4 ... and I have games 1 , 2 , 3 and 4 then I bet dubles like this :

1 2
1 3
1 4
2 3
2 4
3 4

vlada ns

16-03-06, 22:04

FRIDAY 17.03.2006

team : Cremonese - : - Modena

bookie : betandwin

odd : under @ 1.6 (my calculation give 1.43)

stake : 5 %

FT Cremonese 0 : 1 Modena
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Dijon - : - Gueugnon

bookie : betandwin

odd : under @ 1.55 (my calculation give 1.38 )

stake : 5 %

FT Dijon 3 : 0 Gueugnon
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Guingamp - : - Brest

bookie : betandwin

odd : under @ 1.5 (my calculation give 1.35)

stake : 5 %

FT Guingamp 1 : 0 Brest
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Reims - : - Amiens

bookie : expect

odd : under @ 1.45 (my calculation give 1.35)

stake : 5 %

FT Reims 0 : 0 Amiens
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Lorient - : - Bastia

bookie : betandwin

odd : under @ 1.5 (my calculation give 1.45)

stake : 5 %

Lorient 1 : 0 Bastia

vlada ns

18-03-06, 12:18

23 bets won and 4 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

Friday --> + 5.25 %

for now we are 39.45 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 139.45 %

vlada ns

18-03-06, 12:39

Saturday 18.03.2006

team : Troyes - : - Bordeaux

bookie : betandwin

odd : under @ 1.5 (my calculation give 1.31)

stake : 5 %

FT Troyes 1 : 1 Bordeaux
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Nice - : - Nancy

bookie : betandwin

odd : under @ 1.45 (my calculation give 1.25)

stake : 5 %

FT Nice 1 : 0 Nancy
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Toulouse - : - Lens

bookie : betandwin

odd : under @ 1.5 (my calculation give 1.36)

stake : 5 %

FT Toulouse 1 : 1 Lens
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Lleida - : - Murcia

bookie : gamebookers

odd : under @ 1.5 (my calculation give 1.44)

stake : 5 %

FT Lleida 1 : 1 Murcia

vlada ns

18-03-06, 18:46

Sunday 19.03.2006

team : Akratitos - : - Levadiakos

bookie : betandwin / expect / interwetten

odd : under @ 1.55 (my calculation give 1.28 )

stake : 5 %

FT' Akratitos 0 : 0 Levadiakos
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Iraklis - : - Egaleo

bookie : gamebookers / expect / interwetten

odd : under @ 1.6 (my calculation give 1.35)

stake : 5 %

FT' Iraklis 4 : 2 Egaleo
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Paris Saint Germain - : - Auxerre

bookie : gamebookers / betandwin

odd : under @ 1.5 (my calculation give 1.36)

stake : 5 %

FT' Paris Saint Germain 4 : 1 Auxerre
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Lille - : - Marseille

bookie : betandwin

odd : under @ 1.55 (my calculation give 1.43)

stake : 5 %

FT' Lille 0 : 0 Marseille
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Sporting Gijon - : - Numancia

bookie : betandwin

odd : under @ 1.5 (my calculation give 1.41)

stake : 5 %

FT' Sporting Gijon 1 : 0 Numancia
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Pro Patria - : - San Marino

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.4 (my calculation give 1.25)

stake : 5 %

FT' Pro Patria 1 : 0 San Marino
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Ravenna - : - Padova

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.4 (my calculation give 1.33)

stake : 5 %

FT' Ravenna 1 : 0 Padova
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Novara - : - Teramo

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.4 (my calculation give 1.25)

stake : 5 %

FT' Novara 2 : 0 Teramo
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Perugia - : - Frosinone

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.4 (my calculation give 1.25)

stake : 5 %

FT' Perugia 1 : 2 Frosinone
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Sassari Torres - : - Pistoiese

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.45 (my calculation give 1.25)

stake : 5 %

FT' Sassari Torres 1 : 4 Pistoiese
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Gela - : - Chieti

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.37 (my calculation give 1.25)

stake : 5 %

FT' Gela 0 : 1 Chieti
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Napoli - : - Pisa

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.45 (my calculation give 1.25)

stake : 5 %

FT' Napoli 2 : 0 Pisa
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Martina - : - Acireale

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.45 (my calculation give 1.25)

stake : 5 %

FT' Martina 2 : 1 Acireale
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Lucchese - : - Massese

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.6 (my calculation give 1.33)

stake : 5 %

FT' Lucchese 4 : 0 Massese

emirc

18-03-06, 20:30

Wow, this is very impressive :)

It seems you don't bet everyday, true?

Keep up the good work!

vlada ns

19-03-06, 12:56

Wow, this is very impressive :)

It seems you don't bet everyday, true?

Keep up the good work!

I don't bet everyday , yes it's true !

But not because I don't want , I don't bet everyday because there is no good bets everyday :wink: ...

If I find everyday value bet I will bet everyday but that isn't possible .

If a bet is not worth your (full) stake, than it is not worth a bet at all !

Find the value and the winners will take care of themselves !

vlada ns

19-03-06, 13:01

27 bets won and 4 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

Saturday --> + 9.75 %

for now we are 49.2 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 149.2 %

vlada ns

20-03-06, 02:47

parfum

20-03-06, 08:40

Tkanks to you!
U do a very good job!!!

vlada ns

22-03-06, 03:00

Tkanks to you!
U do a very good job!!!

Thank you parfum , I'll try to keep up .

stetos2000

23-03-06, 11:51

35 bets won and 10 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

Sunday --> - 11.9 %

for now we are 37.3 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 137.3 %

We have the worst day untill now , - 11.9 % . :evil:

OK , Italians ( c1/a , and c1/b ) play very bad, only 5 / 9 ... I hope better results from Italians next week ! :roll:

I play also mainly under and over bets,and I would like to suggest include also the past games between the teams and to separate the overs and unders in 3 category vs bottom six,midtable and top 6.The system should be even more precise than.I know its a lot of work but there r a lot of members who would like to help and share the work I think.

vlada ns

23-03-06, 23:19

I play also mainly under and over bets,and I would like to suggest include also the past games between the teams and to separate the overs and unders in 3 category vs bottom six,midtable and top 6.The system should be even more precise than.I know its a lot of work but there r a lot of members who would like to help and share the work I think.

I include past games between teams in "my" system , and I see where is team on table ("3 category vs bottom six,midtable and top 6") --> but I don't give much of importance to that ( just a little :P )
because I use www.betexplorer.com and there you can see immediately those things ... so that isn't much of work .

Thanks anyway :wink:

vlada ns

24-03-06, 01:13

FRIDAY 24.03.2006

team : Valenciennes - : - Reims

bookie : expect

odd : under @ 1.42 (my calculation give 1.36)

stake : 5 %

FT' Valenciennes 1 : 0 Reims

vlada ns

24-03-06, 01:26

Saturday 25.03.2006

team : Marseille - : - Le Mans

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.55 (my calculation give 1.38 )

stake : 5 %

FT Marseille 1 : 1 Le Mans
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Auxerre - : - Saint-Etienne

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.6 (my calculation give 1.35)

stake : 5 %

FT Auxerre 0 : 0 Saint-Etienne
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Nancy - : - Nantes

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.55 (my calculation give 1.32)

stake : 5 %

Nancy 0 : 0 Nantes
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Ciudad de Murcia - : - Lleida

bookie : betandwin --> ( BAW make mistake, they put this match on: "Sunday, March 26, 2006" but match will play (as I know) on Saturday 25.03.2006 )

odd : under @ 1.55 (my calculation give 1.41)

stake : 5 %

FT Ciudad de Murcia 3 : 1 Lleida

vlada ns

24-03-06, 23:16

36 bets won and 10 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

Friday --> + 2.1 %

for now we are 39.4 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 139.4 %

ultra$_DoMa

25-03-06, 00:57

vlada ns

25-03-06, 03:10

great work vlada ns but I have one question ... how come 95% of your calculations are unders ... and the odds are not the most exciting ones 1.4 - 1.65 (there was one @ 2.1) ... as I remember the most common odd for u/o is around 1.8 - 1.9 ... where are there in your calculations

good luck in your further work ;)

Hi ultras , answer on your question is this :
bookies know that huge number of people like to play over but dislike to play under ( that is in human psychology to cheer for goal and to bet on the games with lot of goals, no one like games without goals ) , so because of bigger number of over bets bookies intentionally give little less odds on over and little bigger odds on under .

" the most common odd for u/o is around 1.8 - 1.9 " --> yes but in that odds we do not have value (on teams that play 50 % under bookies give us odds 1.8 - 1.9 ) because fair odds should be 2 - 2.1 ...
Can you find me value like this ( on bigger odds ) :

team : Nancy - : - Nantes
odd : under @ 1.55 (my calculation give 1.32)

If we look thing like this :
with realistic odd ( 1.32 ) and with bet of 100 e we will gain 32 e , but with odd 1.55 we will gain 55 e -- > 55 is 71.87 % bigger of 32 !

If you want value of 71.87 % in odd 1.9 then real odd shoul be 1.52 ... and if you want value of 71.87 % in odd 3 then real odd shoud be 2.165 , what is my point ?
My piont is that in smaller odds we can easly find value , in big odds difference between two odds need to be BIG if we want value -- > in little odds difference no need to be big so we have value ! In little odds we can have value even with smal difference !

Yes , one thing more . My bets are no good if you can't find good odds, because of that thing I always write " my calculation give ... " so you can see what is real odd and if you want to be in + you must never bet on smaller odd of real .

GL :wink:

Kilian

25-03-06, 10:34

team : Nancy - : - Nantes
odd : under @ 1.55 (my calculation give 1.32)

can you explain this calculation, please ? :wink:

vlada ns

25-03-06, 17:11

team : Nancy - : - Nantes
odd : under @ 1.55 (my calculation give 1.32)

can you explain this calculation, please ? :wink:

This is my answer on similiar question from firt page :

" Yes that is worse part here ... I need to upgrade that part ... I just look how many times some time played under , for example we have two teams, and they played 20 games each, and each team have 15 unders so average odd must be 1.33 and bookies give 1.55 --> that is value !

but I want in the future to put into 'sistem' some other variables like form from last 5 games, home and gues stats (over/under) and thing like that . "

In last ten days I little upgrade system and start looking form from last few games ( last 4 to 10 games ) and I start to look home and guest stats .

vlada ns

25-03-06, 17:42

Sunday 26.03.2006

team : Bordeaux - : - Nice

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.55 (my calculation give 1.15 )

stake : 5 %

FT' Bordeaux 1 : 0 Nice
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Levadiakos - : - Egaleo

bookie : gamebookers

odd : under @ 1.55 (my calculation give 1.2 )

stake : 5 %

FT' Levadiakos 2 : 1 Egaleo

GOALS
(Levadiakos) Alex 45 min.
(Egaleo) Kostas Papoutsis 88 min. :evil:
(Levadiakos) Ioannis Chrisafis 90 min. :evil:

RED CARDS
(Egaleo) Prokopios Saganas 77 min.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

...

I have 5 more games for italian c1/a and c1/b league , but there are no odds on internet bookies 8O ... :evil:
( and I use 8 internet bookies : gamebookers, bet365, betandwin, pointbet, pinnacle, centrebet, expect, interwetten )

rado_tdr

25-03-06, 22:52

I want in the future to put into 'sistem' some other variables like form from last 5 games, home and gues stats (over/under) and thing like that . " untill now.

http://forum.bettingadvice.com/viewtopic.php?t=24546

I dont know if you saw this already. This can help you to upgrade your sistem.

vlada ns

26-03-06, 13:05

39 bets won and 11 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

Saturday --> + 3.5 %

for now we are 42.9 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 142.9 %

@ rado_tdr

Thank you on link .

vlada ns

26-03-06, 17:41

40 bets won and 12 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

Sunday --> - 2.25 %

for now we are 40.65 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 140.65 %

Mishkin

26-03-06, 17:41

good work man
cya 8)

Taurus!

27-03-06, 08:08

Wow. Vlada you do a GREAT job. I will start betting on your picks. Keep up. :D

ftoxos

27-03-06, 08:35

very interesting results mate :!:
keep winning

Aragorn78

27-03-06, 21:25

Good start - can u tell a little about how u calculate the odds.

Yes that is worse part here ... I need to upgrade that part ... I just look how many times some time played under , for example we have two teams, and they played 20 games each, and each team have 15 unders so average odd must be 1.33 and bookies give 1.55 --> that is value !

but I want in the future to put into 'sistem' some other variables like form from last 5 games, home and gues stats (over/under) and thing like that .

sorry but I don't know English enought to write everything that I want :oops:

If you are interested in such odds estimations just look at the topic "How to make odds estimations" in "Betting strategies/psichology/money management" subforum, I made examples for Under/Over in the same way, starting with one simple criterion and adding more and more criterias for improving the estimation. By the way the better results are for Under bets and you are absolutely right about the human factor /to like betting on Over more than on Under because of expecting goals/, so we have more value in many Under games. I personally bet on Under/Over only too.

Keep your good work and good luck!

vlada ns

27-03-06, 22:16

THX everybody

@ Aragorn78
I will look at "How to make odds estimations" (I am interested in that kind of stuff --> generaly I like to read everuyhing that finish in "Betting strategies/psichology/money management" ) but in few days, because I tomorrow go on road and I'm gone 'till friday.

vlada ns

31-03-06, 16:35

Friday 31.03.2006

team : Guingamp - : - Reims

bookie : expect

odd : under @ 1.42 (my calculation give 1.24 )

stake : 5 %

FT Guingamp 2 : 1 Reims
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Sedan - : - Brest

bookie : betandwin / interwetten

odd : under @ 1.55 (my calculation give 1.4 )

stake : 5 %

FT Sedan 2 : 2 Brest

JustAnotherVictim

01-04-06, 07:44

This is a site for you and all over/under bettors. Sfstats.net it's got a number of overs/unders home and away so you wont need to count it by yourself.

vlada ns

01-04-06, 18:57

This is a site for you and all over/under bettors. Sfstats.net it's got a number of overs/unders home and away so you wont need to count it by yourself.

thanks for site

vlada ns

01-04-06, 19:02

40 bets won and 14 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

Friday --> - 10 %

for now we are 30.65 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 130.65 %

vlada ns

01-04-06, 19:17

I have 5 bets for Saturday but I don't have time to post here :( , 4 are won and 1 is lost

Sunday 02.04.2006

team : Paris Saint Germain - : - Bordeaux

bookie : gamebookers / betandwin / expect

odd : under @ 1.45 (my calculation give 1.25 )

stake : 5 %

FT' Paris Saint Germain 3 : 1 Bordeaux
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Le Mans - : - Nancy

bookie : expect

odd : under @ 1.42 (my calculation give 1.31 )

stake : 5 %

FT' Le Mans 0 : 0 Nancy
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Murcia - : - Gimnastic

bookie : betandwin

odd : under @ 1.55 (my calculation give 1.33 )

stake : 5 %

FT' Murcia 0 : 1 Gimnastic
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Italia C1 / A

team : Ravenna - : - Pavia

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.4 (my calculation give 1.33 )

stake : 5 %

FT' Ravenna 0 : 1 Pavia
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Giulianova - : - Teramo

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.4 (my calculation give 1.33 )

stake : 5 %

FT' Giulianova 0 : 0 Teramo
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : San Marino - : - Monza

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.4 (my calculation give 1.33 )

stake : 5 %

FT' San Marino 0 : 1 Monza
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Italia C1 / B

team : Gela - : - Martina

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.4 (my calculation give 1.33 )

stake : 5 %

FT' Gela 0 : 1 Martina
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Acireale - : - Foggia

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.4 (my calculation give 1.33 )

stake : 5 %

FT' Acireale 0 : 0 Foggia
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Lucchese - : - Juve Stabia

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.55 (my calculation give 1.33 )

stake : 5 %

FT' Lucchese 2 : 1 Juve Stabia
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

team : Grosseto - : - Perugia

bookie : interwetten

odd : under @ 1.45 (my calculation give 1.33 )

stake : 5 %

FT' Grosseto 1 : 0 Perugia

vlada ns

02-04-06, 23:00

48 bets won and 16 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

Sunday --> + 7.1 %

for now we are 37.75 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 137.75 %

kfcpro

02-04-06, 23:06

vlada ns

02-04-06, 23:36

you're really good :)I'm more interested now in betting over unders,and i found your topic.I think that if you tip something for tommorrow I'll ckeck it and maybe try if it will look fine also for me:) anyway your stats looks really promising.great job!

Thank you Kacpro 8)

Monday 03.04.2006

team : Triestina - : - Pescara

bookie : gamebookers / betandwin

odd : under @ 1.55 (my calculation give 1.33 )

stake : 5 %

FT' Triestina 2 : 0 Pescara
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

insouciant

03-04-06, 04:44

Excellent results on this thread Vlada, long may it continue.
P.S congrats on a really excellent day yesterday. :D

vlada ns

03-04-06, 23:47

Excellent results on this thread Vlada, long may it continue.
P.S congrats on a really excellent day yesterday. :D
THX insouciant :wink:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

49 bets won and 16 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

Monday --> + 2.75 %

for now we are 40.5 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 140.5 %

vlada ns

04-04-06, 00:38

Thursday 04.04.2006

team : Gornik Leczna - : - Arka Gdynia

bookie : expect

odd : under @ 1.57 (my calculation give 1.25 )

stake : 5 %

FT' Gornik Leczna 1 : 1 Arka Gdynia

Aragorn78

04-04-06, 09:09

It is better to write "units", not % (percents), because actually they are not percents. :)

vlada ns

04-04-06, 13:24

Aragorn78

04-04-06, 16:59

It is better to write "units", not % (percents), because actually they are not percents. :)

actually they are percent of startink bank ( 100 % ) , but I can write units if that will simplify things . :wink:

Yes, but it is normal if we talk about percents by each bet, these percents to be percents of the current bank, that's why it is better to call them 5 units. :)

Thanks, mate, and keep doing! 8)

vlada ns

04-04-06, 19:33

50 bets won and 16 bet lost (and 1 postponed)

Tuesday --> + 2.85 %

for now we are 43.35 % in +

starting bank was 100 %
now bank is 143.35 %

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OK , it's end of firt mont of my posting here and we have profit of 43.35 % ... it's not bad :wink: , I hope next 30 days will bring us at least 30 % of profit .

GL

@ Aragorn78
from now my stakes will be in units

emirc

04-04-06, 19:43

Excellent results, man! Over 43% of profit for just one month is spectacular, if you could keep 20% up each month overall, it would be just great :lol:

Seems that the tactic work well, considering by the number of picks you choose each month... Keep up the good work! :wink: 8)

PitMaster

06-04-06, 08:53

Hi Vlada !

We are looking for your bets! You do great job ! I'm impressive.

Keep doing it!

gamma

06-04-06, 09:26

great job. thanks to vlada ns.

For over/under betting strategy follow this site. http://www.for2bet.com

Yesterday their picks:
Hibernian - Kilmarnock Over - Win
Vaduz - Locarno OVer - Win
Iwata - Omiya Over - Win

Gaziantepspor - Be***351;ikta***351; - Lost

Wil 1900 - La Chaux-de-Fonds Over - Postponed
Banik Ostrava - Brno - Under - Postponed

LEVIATHAN

06-04-06, 10:06

Great work Vlada. Keep it up

vlada ns

11-04-06, 20:08

Sorry but nothing of bets untill May , because I need to move from one place to another ... it's lot of job and I don't have time for betting .
I expect that I will start to post bets after first week in May ...

GL till then :wink:

PitMaster

14-04-06, 10:27

ok! i'm waiting for your tips.

JustAnotherVictim

14-04-06, 17:15

Boys,I got some Under 2.5 Goals tips for you.When I few weeks ago saw Vlado's strategy I was pretty pleasently suprised because my strategy was almost the same as his if not the same. :idea:I hope Vlado does not mind.

For those of you who are not sure what this strategy is a here's a short explanation of my version of the "thing":

Let's say the match is team A vs team B.Team A has played at home 12 times under 2.5 goals 12 times and 3 times over 2.5 goals.Team B has played away 14 times under and 2 times over.Now this is the math: Combined they played 12+14=26 games under and 3+2=5 games over.We take the total number of games they played together which is 26+5=31 and we divide it 26 to get the average odd that wold leave as on zero if we have played all their games under.In this case the average odd is 31/16=1.19 and bookie offers us 1.45.Now that is the odd which we would happilly accept.I personaly like to this odds in 1x2 which are 2 and higher which suggests a closer game and less goals.

Strategy like this in France League 1 produced a yield of about 20% up to date.

And France 1 Picks for this week are:

Lilles - Bordeux Under 2.5 @ 1.45
Lilles at home 12-5 Under\Over ; Bordeux away 14-2 Under\Over
Combined 26-7 and average odd of breaking even 1.27
1x2 odds 2.25 2.80 3.15

Nantes - Auxerre Under 2.5 @ 1.50
Nantes at home 13-4 Under\Over ; Auxerre away 13-4 Under\Over
Combined 26-8 and average odd of breaking even 1.31
1x2 odds 2.65 2.80 2.65

St Etienn - Lens Under 2.5 @ 1.45
St Etienn at home 13-4 Under\Over ; Lens away 14-3 Under\Over
Combined 27-7 and average odd of breaking even 1.26
1x2 odds 2.65 2.80 2.55

Nice - Rennes Under 2.5 @ 1.50
Nice at home 13-4 Under\Over ;Rennes away 13-4 Under\Over
Combined 26-8 and average odd of breaking even 1.26
1x2 odds 2.65 2.80 2.55

All odds are from my local bookie Meridian.I think it's possible to find at least the same odds on internet bookies.

Boys,so much from me.Have a nice day. :wink: 8)