Kuusamo 25.11. Ski-Jumping

[Carvalho]

Hello!

It's starting today...the ski jumping season. If you have a chance to pick between two competitors-do it, because it's harder to predict just a winner!

Kranjec-in form, but to bad for (e.g.) Romoeren
Janda-improved during summer and better than Widhoelzl
Ahonen-home favourite, but don't be so sure, that he can show last year's form
Kuettel is also friendly with this jumping hill so he can represent a value...to take him as a winner today :)

Cheers and GL

[go-go]

Well, I made a litlle research..... Mostly all jumpers made 3 jumps in Kuusamo (2 training jumps and 1 qualification jump),Andreas Kuettel made the longest jump in second trainining jump 137m, but it's true that he was jumping from 1 gate higher than 15 best last season.
Then in the qualification round where all the jumpers were jumping from the same gate, Kuettel was again the longest with 137,5m followed by
Romoeren 136,5m
Kranjec 136m
Malisz 135m
Uhrman 134m
Morgenstern 134m

Ahonen didn't jump in qualifications, he made 2 training jumps which were quite good, but still nothing special. My conclusion is that the winner sholud be found amongst those 6 guys above. So if your bookie offers
any head-head betting, those guys are clear favorites aginst any other jumper. If you ask me about the winner, my favorites would be Thomas
Morgenstern odd at Betfair 8, Romoeren 6 and Malisz 8.

[timo]

Hello!
Ahonen-home favourite, but don't be so sure, that he can show last year's form


Janne has always been good here. Last year:

Kuusamo 27.11.2004 HS142 Night event
1. AHONEN Janne 144.5 142.0 318.7
2. HERR Alexander 138.5 126.5 275.5
3. HOELLWARTH Martin 139.0 123.5 274.0
4. HAUTAMAEKI Matti 140.5 123.5 273.7
5. MORGENSTERN Thomas 128.5 133.0 270.7

Kuusamo 28.11.2004 HS142
1. AHONEN Janne 143.0 143.0 308.3
2. MORGENSTERN Thomas 135.5 133.5 288.2
3. JANDA Jakub 129.0 137.5 282.2
4. HAUTAMAEKI Matti 130.0 135.0 277.5
5. WIDHOELZL Andreas 128.0 131.5 267.1

So he was outstanding!
He has trained very hard without injuries and has been confident on the interviews, so IMO 3.75 Nordicbet is enough...

[bruniak]

START LIST:

1. Arttu Lappi (Finlandia)
2. Juha-Matti Ruuskanen (Finlandia)
3. David Lazzaroni (Francja)
4. Jure Sinkovec (S***322;owenia)
5. Petr Chaadaev (Bia***322;oru***347;)
6. Jens Salumäe (Estonia)
7. Alan Alborn (USA)
8. Primoz Pikl (S***322;owenia)
9. Maksim Anisimov (Bia***322;oru***347;)
10.Marcin Bachleda (Polska)
11.Joonas Ikonen (Finlandia)
12.Radik Zhaparov (Kazachstan)
13.Emmanuel Chedal (Francja)
14.Tsuyoshi Ichinohe (Japonia)
15.Dimitry Ipatov (Rosja)
16.Janne Happonen (Finlandia)
17.Denis Kornilov (Rosja)
18.Anders Bardal (Norwegia)
19.Kamil Stoch (Polska)
20.Kimmo Yliriesto (Finlandia)
21.Jussi Hautamäki (Finlandia)
22.Robert Kranjec (S***322;owenia)
23.Andreas Kofler (Austria)
24.Robert Mateja (Polska)
25.Martin Schmitt (Niemcy)
26.Primoz Peterka (S***322;owenia)
27.Tami Kiuru (Finlandia)
28.Jörg Ritzerfeld (Niemcy)
29.Daniel Forfang (Norwegia)
30.Michael Möllinger (Szwajcaria)
31.Simon Ammann (Szwajcaria)
32.Michael Neumayer (Niemcy)
33.Rok Benkovic (S***322;owenia)
34.Wolfgang Loitzl (Austria)
35.Andreas Küttel (Szwajcaria)
36.Jernej Damjan (S***322;owenia)
37.Björn Einar Romören (Norwegia)
38.Daiki Ito (Japonia)
39.Risto Jussilainen (Finlandia)
40.Georg Späth (Niemcy)
41.Lars Bystoel (Norwegia)
42.Michael Uhrmann (Niemcy)
43.Andreas Widhölzl (Austria)
44.Thomas Morgenstern (Austria)
45.Jakub Janda (Czechy)
46.Martin Höllwarth (Austria)
47.Adam Ma***322;ysz (Polska)
48.Matti Hautamäki (Finlandia)
49.Roar Ljoekelsoey (Norwegia)
50.Janne Ahonen (Finlandia)

[Bridges]

No big bets for me today as it is season opening. But try a couple I belive have some value:

A.Malysz - B.E.Romøren 1 2,25 (3/10) (Expekt)

Malysz had a very poor first training junp but the other two was very good, Romøren had three very good jump.

Last day jumps:
Malysz: 103,0 - 134,0 (gate 10) - 135,0
Romøren: 128,5 - 135,0 (gate 11) - 136,5

Romøren was better in all jumps but i rate this as very open. Romøren is an unstable jumper that may get some poor jump even in good form, malysz is not the most stable jumper either but more consistend than Romøren. I see value in Malysz here.

J.Ahonen - A.Kuettel 2 3,25 (1/10) (Expekt)

Ahonen is ofcourse favorite after what he showed last year but it is hard to say if he is as good this season yet and Kuettel have showed some great jumps on training and qualification.

Jumps yesterday.
Ahonen: 127,5 - 125,0 (gate 10)- skiped qualify
Kuettel: 122,5 - 137,0 (gate 11) - 137,5

I think this may be worth a small bet with Kuettels preformence on training/qualification.