View Full Version : Pick of the Day, 21-02-2009
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English Premier League, football
Stoke City vs Portsmouth
Full packed stadium and fired up crowd are expecting Pompeys at Brittania in the clash where three points could worth "double".
Both teams are hanging just over the relegation zone and win over their direct rivals could be vital. Stoke is basing their whole season on home games, cause they are very weak on the road. At Brittania, its a different story, their fans are one of the loudest in the country and Potters are known for their extreme determination when playing in front of them. Pompeys win over City is some kind of a light in the tunnel but its far from being impressive achievement since we know Citys away record and overall condition this season.
To sum it up, i expect a really close match between two determined teams, but huge support from the stands should give Potters the slight edge over visitors.
Odds are really great.
Pick: EH -1 DRAW, 4.40 (Centrebet) 5/10
so far 1/3 #-50
Wolfsburg Vs Hertha
pick: Hertha away win (odd:4 from from UNIBET)
Hertha beaten Bayern last weekend without at least six main players, they have a little bit luck but really played a great game, because they always playing ugly defendsive football, the situation and statistics in their games always on disadvantage position, even they are on top of the league table now, they still underrate by peoples including most of the bookies, but their success really not only depend on luck, they have capital to play great counter attack because their defense triangle really hard to tear, center defenders A. Friedrich and Simunic doing great job to consolidate their keeper right now, and their two heros Drobny and Voronin are the best form keeper and striker in the league at that moment, Voronon playing the best football in his career, already killed Leverkusen, Hoffenheim and Bayern by his one man show. Now they are the leader on league table, everyone full of confidence and motive power, but no one talking about to win anything this season, they have not much pressure to doing their great job game by game.
Wolfsburg become the favorite because their outstanding home record, already won 11 games in row in all competition games, but today game is between the two legs UEFA Cup games, they used their best line-up to fight for their European dream in Paris three days ago, but couldn`t hold until last ten minutes and lost 0:2, the defeat cost much physical strength and also discouraged them, Magath will not give up and already thinking to fight back on next Thursday, of course will distracted them today, their top scorer Grafite injuried also a big blow, they will feel very hard to break the wall from Berlin.
The head to head results also support Hertha, they without lose any game in last 10 meetings, got six wins and four draws, X2 is good bet here, also Hertha will go on to play defendsive football in this away game, and without Grafite and Pantelic of course will weaken both teams attack power, and count on the tired of home team, I also follow my friend Hoffenheim CL Winner to bet under2.5, my correct score is 0:1, away win with good odd also worth to try.
Pick#3 *(0/1/-100) one pending
Bulls v Blues S14 Rugby
pick away team @ 3.25 Sportingbet
(Pretoria - 15.00 GMT)
Both teams come off first round victories, but they also paid a dear price - losing their respective captains to injury. The Bulls had a solid win at home over the Reds while the Blues were impressive in beating the Force.
I have to mantion one cannot read into too much of Bulls win over Reds. Simply put this, Reds and Bulls plays a tennis game strictly taking turns each year to beat the crap out of the other.
The Bulls got the 4 wins in hand in last 5 years against the Blues, however before that suffered the same fate to his rival.
It is important to point out that dominance of each team over the other came with dominance in the competition too>
Bulls 2007 Champion, fafter 2years semi final presence, where The Blues were 2003 Champion *(with Graham Henry AB), and narrowly missing out on semis 2008.
That comes to the point Bulls after winning the comp. last year made a spectacular fall dawn 10th place and the tables turned again.
Ali Williams kicked out by his teammates returned to Auckland and despite the fact he is out for this game, it is symbolise the Blues gaining back territory in S14 competition. As I mentioned previus pick Auckland the Pacific capital and New Zealand's economic powerhouse can quickly regrown its legs it's depth of talent in no question. Only the management will make or break the deal.
Blues has Samoan Patrick Richard Lam as the new manager and new direction laid out. Prevous fruitless period under Australian David Nucifora kind of not a real shock as Nucifora was the first ever coach in Super Rugby history, to be sacked after winning the title with the Brumbies. *(Juicy story there)
As I mentioned refs no neutral this year. But I will give a shot to Mark Lawrence SA will break the trot for teams and refs line up under the same flag. Long shot tough.
Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 Jaco Pretorius, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 MornÚ Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez (captain), 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Danie Rossouw, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Derick KuŘn, 1 Gurthr÷ Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Frik Kirsten, 18 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 19 Pedrie Wannenburg, 20 Heini Adams, 21 Burton Francis, 22 JP Nel.
Blues: 15 Isaia Toeava, 14 Rene Ranger, 13 Anthony Tuitavake, 12 Jamie Helleur, 11 Paul Williams, 10 Jimmy Gopperth, 9 Chris Smylie, 8 Chris Lowrey, 7 Josh Blackie, 6 Justin Collins, 5 Anthony Boric, 4 Kurtis Haiu, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu/Tom McCartney 1 Tevita Mailau.
Replacements: 16 Tom McCartney/Francis Smith, 17 Tony Wood****, 18 Dean Budd, 19 Onosa'i Auva'a, 20 Grayson Hart, 21 Michael Hobbs, 22 Winston Stanley.
Referee: Mark Lawrence (South Africa)
Touch judges: Willie Roos (South Africa), Stuart Berry (South Africa)
TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)
England Premier League
Arsenal - Sunderland
Pick: Arsenal -1.5
Bookies: Bet365, 10Bet
Arsenal is unbeaten long time (i think 12 matches)... but problem is that they have some "unplaned" draws lattely. This is great young team with motivation always on high level. Arsenal have one of the best coaches of our time, Arsene Wenger, who is capiable to make masterful tactics against every team and in every situation. He prove that winning over best teams in EPL. This season Arsenal won vs Man. United home and Chelsea away, and draw with Liverool. Now Gunners have three draws in a row, but with good teams... Everton away 1:1, and two London derbies vs West Ham 0:0 and Tottenaham 0:0 (with man down early from first half).
Aston Villa - Chelsea match take place today, and that is chance for Gunners with victory to stay closer with places who lead in CHL next season. Arsenal deserve that.
I'm not impresed with this Sunderland team, but they managed good results lately. More-less they escaped dangerous zone and now they are the middle of the table. And they haven't play with some big teams lately...
Arsenal always beat Sunderland at home in past years... 3:0, 3:1, 3:1, 3:2... and i'm sure good that tradition will continue...
Arsenal squad: Almunia, Sagna, Gallas, Toure, Clichy, Nasri, Denilson, Arshavin, Eboue, Bendtner, Van Persie, Fabianski, Djourou, Gibbs, Wilshere, Vela, Song, Ramsey.
Yes, Arshavin will play today, and i expect from him to shine... and of course to score some goals... boss Arsene Wenger believes the Russian with his mobility and passing can link Arsenal's play together... and Arsene Wenger know what is the best ;)
Even Champions League match vs Roma is comming, Arsenal will win this match easy, they are much better team than Sunderland, and they must do that for self confidence. I smell something like (HT 2:0) FT 3:0...
Arsenal -1.5 (7/10)
Good luck ;)
Aston Villa - Chelsea
Pick: Chelsea (-1 EH) Draw @ 4.00 Bet365
It's going to be a hell of a match this one. Aston Villa need a win or a draw to stay at the third place, while Chelsea need a win and a win only in order to overtake them. I know it's going to be difficult for the blues, because Aston Villa is doing just wonderful this season. They have great players, but they are usually better away from home. Their 5-6-1 record at Villa Park is not even close to the best home records. Villa is a great counter-attacking side, but Chelsea know how to handle this kind of teams. They have a great defence you know. Ashley Cole is banned, while Alex and Carvalho are doubtful, but captain John Terry is back from suspension. Chelsea are yet to win a big game this season and I think this is it. They are 10 points down to Manchester United, but it's not the end of the world. They just can't afford to keep losing points. Besides, the players are still under the new-manager effect. You know what influence a manager change can have, right? Chelsea have not defeated Aston Villa at Villa Park for quite a time, but I think today they will. Aston Villa is on a 13-game undefeated streak which is bound to end very soon IMO. Some "experts" say they might even win the Premierleague, but this is insane. They are a good team, but they don't have enough resources. Chelsea is the better team and I believe they will edge it.
Pick #6 (2/3, +103)
Tigre - Velez Sarsfield
Pick: A - 3.50 @ Pinnacle
I think this price is way to high for this match. The hosts won't have Martin Morel, who was first goalscorer at last championship and the key man at midfield. Tigre have great team, but two defeats in a row r enough to make it hard for them. Velez has a good team as well, but their main problem is goalscoring. The missed Fabbiani's transfer, but finally they have a new striker (Larrivey) no matter how good or bad he can be for the team.
I see excellent value on the away win and i go for Velez. Good luck everybody.
16:00 Bari - Ascoli X2 @ 1.95 Expekt
ITALY: Serie B
Bari(2.) Home record: 7-4-2 15:11
Last 5 matches: W W D D D
2.5 over/under: Total: 8/18 At home: 5/8
Ascoli(19.) Away record: 3-3-7 9:18
Last 5 matches: L W W W W
2.5 over/under: Total: 6/20 Away: 5/8
Info: This is the match where stats can be misleading. Second on the table, Bari against 12th Ascoli. But if only last 10 matches are considered Ascoli leads Serie B. In form guests travel to Bari to play the team that didn't win in last 3. Odds are too good to miss and away win @ 5.80 is for sure value bet of the day.
Voided. Analysis way beyond the standard needed for the competition. /Strand
Pick #3 (1/2 +150)
Aston Villa - Chelsea
Pick: Chelsea @ 2.22 - Pinnacle
Yes I know that The Blues have not defeated Aston Villa on their stadium,Villa Park in last years,last time when Chelsea do it were in 1999 by a 3-0 win,but i think now is perfect time.Villa struggled in last two matches,they have lost their cup game against Everton by 3-1 and in the middle of this week they drew at home with CSKA 1-1.
Also,Chelsea isn`t in a good shape but they have a new coach at this match,Hiddink and a lot is expected from him.
Aston Villa: Friedel - L Young, Davies, Knight, Shorey - Milner, Petrov, Barry, A Young - Carew, Agbonlahor
Chelsea: Cech - Bosingwa, Terry, Mancienne, Ferreira - Mikel, Lampard, Ballack, Deco - Drogba, Anelka
Hiddink will start with Drogba and Anelka in attack,two very dangerous attackers,Anelka is the best top scorer in the league,with 14 goals scored while Drogba is trying to come back at his good form after a injury.
Aston Villa is better away from home,on Villa Park they have a poor record,5-6-1.I see nice value on "The Blues".
Pick #2(0/1... -100)
Pick: Over 2,5
Empoli suffered a big defeat on midweek (0-3 at Modena) but they are still in the race for promotion,so i'm expecting them to bounce back in style here.At Modena they were in the game till they receive the first,but after that they colapsed.Also,away at Albinolleffe,few rounds ago,they showed a good game,missing several good oportunities but failed to score in the end.Their away form needs badly some signs of improvement.But at home Empoli is another story.Last home games,showed a team capable of clearly dominating the oponent and capable of creating many oportunities(2-1 Rimini,2-0 Vicenza).
Cittadella lies in the relegation area but note that their form is on a up-trend.There are big chances for them to score here.They did that at Salerno(won 2-1) with 2 penalties and a red card for Salernitana in the first half,and at Mantova(lost 1-2)where they also missed some good chances.At home,they managed to trash Avellino(4-0;also here Avellino saw red in the first half) with Maggiorini scoring 4 and also managed a spectacular 4-4 vs Piacenza.Last round "I Granata" drew in a local derby against Treviso,in a ugly game where they missed also few regulars.
Hungry for points and very determined ,Empoli will be all over Cittadella from the very first minute and with that poor defense of visitors they will eventually score in the first half.After that,goals should come with ease from both sides!Easy over imo.
Pick#2, So Far 0/1
Palermo - Juventus
Italy Serie A
In my opinion, there is great value in the draw here. You might wonder why and I will tell u why.
Hosts are not bad at all at home, they have 9 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses. Yep, 0 draws for a team in Italy is weird and i like breaking streaks.
Moreover, it is always tough to play in Palermo, hosts have great fans and home advantage is always big here.
Palermo managed to beat Juventus twice in a row, 1:2 in the beginning of the season. This, however, is a rare event, Juventus rarely fail to lose twice in a row. Overall, Palermo is a tough opponent for the visitors.
Juventus missed a lot of vital points and now 1st place is far away from them. It will be difficult to reach inter with this tough schedule of games. Juve has a game in CL next week and this could reflect to that game as well.
They showed some uncertainities in last game against Samp at home and hardly managed to get to the draw with a late goal of Amauri.
All in all, i can`t see visitors losing this one in order to keep their place safe. But i doubt they will play on 100% because of the upcoming game. Palermo on the other side, is always eager to get some points and i believe a draw here will suit both teams.
dada-as #5 w3 L1 +123
Weymouth - Rushden and Diamonds
Pick: Rushden and Diamonds
Odds: 1.88 @ Gamebookers
Weymouth is in big financial crisis, club is in big debts and this is last match for they manager. Because manager say that he will elave if turnover dont bring more cash. Weymouth also recently lost they striker because they send it to Wycombe on load. Rushden is ready for this match, they welcome back they defender Jellyman and he be ready to play. Rushden could finally win at Weymouth because of they problems, 2 times Rushden visit Weymouth and once was draw and once they lost.
If you want to read more about Weymouths problems go to they official website: http://www.theterras.co.uk/home.htm
p.s. if you have extra cash you can donate them to help them out, lol
Pick 5# 1/4 -68 points
English League Two: Chester v Exeter(-1EH) 2 @ 3.60 @ bet365
Chester are on six losses in a row and will be looking forward to put a stop to that bad spell. However they are still facing an array of injury worries and have also to face suspension problems. Besides the long injury list Jay Harris is starting a three-game ban. There are only some hopes of the return of ryan lowe and Damien Mozika.
The depleted team are hosting in-form Exeter who have won three of last four and drawn the other one. They have little chances.
Exeter are boosted by the return of veteran utility player Rob Edwards from a one-match suspension and on-loan Tottenham centre-back troy Archibald-Henville could recover from a groin injury in time to play.
With 50 points Exeter are in seventh seat and at six points from the two top teams Brentford and Wycombe (both with 56 points) The four other teams between Exeter and the leaders are within immediate reach at 52 and 53 points. Exeter have therefore all interests to get the useful points here and will go for it.
They have won three of last four but all three were at home. They have not been so good away recently winning only one and drawing three from last nine away. But these came after a streak of four away wins in a row. Exeter have now gained back their good form and scored 11 goals in last four ( 2-1, 2-2 away, 4-0 and 3-2).
I believe Exeter should be able to win here and score more more than one here. More so they are visiting a depleted team standing at fifth-bottom place.
I take the away win with the -1EH @ 3.60 @ bet365
Pick #3 (2W-0L) (+167)
England Conference League
First of all, I want to say that the game is probably not postponned.
Was a lot of rumours because of BBC sport's mistake a few days ago that the game is postponned, but is likely to be on.
Histon in great recent form. In fact they had a great season so far, and promotion playoff look like certain thing. Burton on first place, look like unreachable, but Histon have games in hand.
They have their captain defender Matt Mitchel King injured, but is welcoming back defender Lanre Oyebanjo and midfielder Nathaniel Knight-Percival. Their forward line looks quite ok in recent games and will be strenghtened for this game by signing promising striker Richard Pacquette from Maidenhead (scored 16 goals in 26 games this season).
Coach Steve Fallon is hoping they will combat their rivals today on a good day like this and will try to score from start like in previous game against Salisbury away (0-4 win).
Eastbourne borough, has turn the season on a good direction after a bad start of the season. Relegation battle looks like will end in success. I remember their coach interview two months ago saying that they dont have ambitions to surprice big teams, but is likely to save strenght for bottom side teams and win that sixpointers. Looks like He was right at that time, they escaped relegation battle for now. They are coming of 3 week rest without League games, cause of bad weather.
They are missing defender Neil Jenkins through suspension.
Its a first League game in Bridge Road, Impington, a twin town of Histon, after a long period.
Some 1000 fans in great mood, atm.
Its true, the pitch is not perfect but is well "rested". Weather is fine today.
Histon next home game is against their local rivals Cambridge.
Club board decided to begin sales of tickets right after finish of the match
I hope Histon will perform and score and give a good preCambridge mood.
dogge the swede
2W 1L +110u
English Footie, Coca-Cola Championship
QPR vs Ipswich
Odds: 2.20 @ Betsafe
First of all this is great value for a home win. Both teams are positioned just under the top6 spot that gets you to the play-off. Qpr hasn't lost a league game since 9th of December and at Loftus Road not since 15th of November. They are 9-4-2 at home this season but due to opponents cupgames&snow conditions the team has had a little winterbreak with no games for 2weeks. So team should be rested, fit and fired up for this game. Rowlands, Buzsaky,Vine&Agyemang are out with long term injuries as known before but new boy Jordi Lopez may be on the bench already today. Since Sousa came in he has really turned things around for the west-london club. New additions Routledge and Helguson has added some great stuff to their offense and Gorks in CB with Stewart have been terrific.
Ipswich has a good away record of 6-4-6 but for this game they are without Lisbie, Campo, Volz, Haynes&McAuley. Played a game in midweek and picked up 3points at home against Forest(2-1). In 2009 the teams performance has been a little bit up and down.
Both teams have put some draws under their belt and are very hard to beat so a lot of tipsters are looking for the draw here, but i reckon that someones streak will come to an end today. A well rested QPR will be to strong today and in all of their 4draws at home since december they have been the better team but just not lucky in front of the goalkeeper.
Referee for this game is young Attwell..known for the 'ghostgoal'(watford-reading)&a VERY poor performance in Derby-Forest disallowing two good goals for Derby.
Pick # 7 (4W-2L +508)
Liga Sagres, Portugal
Sporting CP vs SL Benfica
Pick : Over 2,5 goals
Odds : 2.53 @10bet
Another historical Lisbon derby, with both teams needing points to close the gap for FC Porto, that won last night in Pašos de Ferreira. This can be crucial especially for Sporting because they are fourth and next week they travel to play in Porto. We can see now that the draw is no good for any of these teams tonight :
1 FC Porto 41pts 19games
2 Benfica 37 18
3 Leix§es 34 18
4 Sporting 34 18
Sporting comes from an important victory in Belenenses venue while Benfica collected the three points against Pašos de Ferreira at home.
Only one big absence in Sporting with goalkeeper Rui Patricio KO, while Benfica comes in maximum strengtht.
This is the start of a terrible cycle for home team as they have tonight's game, a game for CL on wednesday and another big match next weekend away in Porto and i believe between today and next week we should have the title dispute solved.
Even though these are always tough matches and the UNDER prevails, i believe that after the FC Porto victory last night, these two are obliged to play to win and a draw can be a very compromising result for both of them.
I expect a big match and goals and both teams have men to score.
My confidence on this pick : 4/10.
Pick#4 0/3 -300
Palermo - Juventus
Juve have not much motivation for this game.First of all they lost chances for the title in last two rounds and now they are 9 points away from Inter.The 5-th place is also too far and they have no fear to losse it.And the most important game of the year for them is coming-next week against Chelse for 1/8 final for Champions league.Juve have very high motivation to qualify for 1/4 final after two years away from this tournament.I think Juve will not give their best at this game.Palermo on the other side is very good team at home.They have 9 wins in 11 home games.They already won at home against Milan and Rome.Palermo won last two times against Juve also.I expekt an other big home team for them.
Pick #5 (3W/1L) (+155)
PAOK - Iraklis
All eyes today at big derby in Thessaloniki. PAOK is facing Iraklis, in a match that PAOK cares more about the result, in order to remain in the second league position. PAOK have been on fire recently, producing very good attacking football as well. Iraklis, from the other hand, feel more secure as they see themselves far from relegation zone. I can't see Iraklis taking anything from todays game. Toumpa stadium will be crowded with crazy PAOK fans, creating a tremendous atmosphere once again. Also, 1200 Iraklis fans will attend the match. As for the absences, PAOK will miss Marcos Antonio, Snautchner and side back Darlas. Iraklis won't have the services of their powerful attacking weapon, Marquez. This is a very important missing, because Marquez is the only one who can could create attacking chances in such a match. PAOK clear favourite and I go with home win.
Andy Roddick vs. Lleyton Hewitt
Another one for the melancholics after Hewitt vs Blake clash in the first round, as we reach the semifinals of Regions Morgan Keegan Championships.
So if in the first one I was on Blake, now i fancy Hewitt. I saw a couple of his matches, to be more accurate, the one against James and the last one against Ch. Rochus, and i think Lleyton played solid tennis here. Firstly i didn`t think he got past his mental problems and that he can play on his maximum potential, but now i changed my mind. He is hungry for victories and that is obvious in his game.
There`s no need to mention in what lousy state was Hewitt`s form and results before this tournament, but right now he seems confident. I also watch a few interviews with him and he is happy to be back on the circuit, playing against great players, even if he now is an underdog. I think that with positive atitude and thinking you can accomplish great things.
Andy is the same as always, with minor changes in better. In 2008 he started choking less, and now he isn`t at all, he started working on some of his shots, and now he is near to master them. But he still has that big problem, when he feels that he plays a great player, or an in form one, he cracks, causing him to lose matches that he could win if he would fight more. He had a great tournament so far, but nothing special, since he never played a decent opponent yet. Ginepri, Darcis or Querrey couldn`t be classified as ones of Roddick`s caliber. In fact, the last one even managed to win a set with him.
Now he is playing Hewitt who got his serve working and his shots on the mark here. I don`t think that there are a lot of chances, but the value is huge in my opinion. Should be somewhere in the 2.25-2.50 are if you`d ask me. Of course, my opinion ofter differs from bookies opinion. It would have made a 4 unit match, but because i think the value is so good, let`s get it up a notch.
Lleyton Hewitt to win.
Odds: 3,75. Stake: 6/10. Bookmaker: Bet365.
Pick 4 - - - 2w/1L +120
*Spanish Primera Division 2008/2009
Real Madrid - Betis
pick - Real M. -1.5 (Real to win by two or more)
odds - 3.0 - 10Bet
Noone believe in Real Madrid today? Real Madrid at home at this great odds?
Im Barca fan, but I cant understand why this shouldnt be one easy homewin. We have high odds for Real now.
Real M. is one of the most famous world teams. They are in great shape and they need pts. Real have 10 pts less than Barcelona. Real won last 8 games recieving only one goal!
Real won in first meeting this season in Sevilla with Betis 2-1.
Betis play good in last games, they won in Sevilla derby, and they draw with Barca. That is enough for them, because they are still average team on 15th place.
Probable Starting XIs:
Real Madrid (4-4-2): Casillas Sergio Ramos, Pepe, Cannavaro, Heinze Higuain, Diarra/Guti, Gago, Marcelo Ra˙l (c), Huntelaar
Betis (4-2-3-1): Ricardo Nelson, Melli, Arzu (c), Fernando Vega Juande, Aurelio Damia, Emana, Mark Gonzalez - Oliveira
Real squad look much better to me. They can overpower Betis and they can win this game easy. Odds 3.00 are funny, much more than I expected. Value bet, medium stakes.
Everton - Rangers, Pick: Everton(-1EH), Odds: 2.70, Sportingbet
Well i guess i am not joining the competition too soon.
I will be short:
- hosts are a team with long history in Chile and i guess they will want a good start for the new campaign
- from what i see they are improving every next step, they lost the first game for the season but then afterh the draw, finally managed to win at home. Now they play at home again and i believe it will be even tougher for their opponents
- all the previous games Everton won against this team are with more than a goal.
- visitors are nothing special and can not convince me with anything that they can get even a point here.
- Rangers lost last two games in the league whereas the game against U. De Chile was a disastrous one (0:4)
- I personally rate hosts much stronger than visitors and i will try the handicap.
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