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I am always sceptical when I spot a slogan screaming: "fantastic software that will make you the richest man on the Earth." You must also have seen similar advertisements on the Net thousands times. I have never trusted them, to be honest. I can think for myself and don't want to pay for a program that will deliver me "magnificent picks". A program that will work instead of my brain.
I think I can say that everybody has heard of Football Symphony. There is a separate subforum with complaints about this "thing" so I will not add another one here. The only thing I want to say is that this software is the best proof that a computer program cannot deliver picks. It can only help you choose the games to bet on by providing appropriate statistics.
The only way to beat bookmaker's overrun is to find value bets. In my humble opinion, it can be achieved by: finding out about injuries that influence match outcome or spotting mistakes in bookies probability counting. Here is the only place for a software. I was lookin for a good one for a long time and tested many of them but could't get satisfied with functions they offered.
Finally I found what I was looking for. There's a program, which amazed me with its usefulness. It is called Soccer Stats Tracker. The guy, who developped it made a really good job. And I am not talking about the programming part of it, because to be honest, I don't give a **** how this software works. From the moment you start it you cannot have any doubts that it was made by someone who knows a lot about betting, who knows which statistics are essential. I wouldn't be able to name all of them here, not to mention describing them, but I will tell you about the feature I liked the most. It is called "Leagues tendency". Here you can see the comparison of leagues' statistics such as percentages of "under" games, away wins, 2/X results and 28(!!!) more. That is overwhelming! And this is only one feature!
To give you an example on what SST can be used for: last week I posted a pick for Sociedad-Espanyol X/1 providing history of previous games of the teams showing a fantastic value in odds proposed by bookies. How long would I have to examine the results of each team in each league to find this tendency in this particular game?
You can download the program for free here:
http://www.soccer-stats.net/
Test it and write your reflections.
Very good thread, hmm nice program.
Yep i have already placed my complaints about PCsoccer and Symphony on the other forums, have tried both and both are total CRAP.
A program that will work instead of my brain.
The problem is only to create algorithmes similar to your brain... There are lot of researches, and even a special science.... uhmmm... don't know how it's in English :( All they trying to do this thing, and managed to achieve some results...
The only thing I want to say is that this software is the best proof that a computer program cannot deliver picks. It can only help you choose the games to bet on by providing appropriate statistics.
You are right, speaking about FS, and wrong, complaining about programs at all.
The only way to beat bookmaker's overrun is to find value bets.
Yeah, great words! But can you see the difference between 65% and 75% probability? No, you can't, you can only say: "This is a good bet, i like it", or "Good bet, but odds too low, i'll better skip". Man can FEEL probability, but can't CALCULATE it, only software can do this. It's calculations may be right, or wrong, depending on quality of its algorithmes.
Yep i have already placed my complaints about PCsoccer and Symphony on the other forums, have tried both and both are total CRAP.
You know why? Because they are both aimed on high selling, not reliable predictions.
I've been deep into creating betting program for 5 years. First it was eurohockey, which still works fine, but not great (http://www.betsyouwin.com/eternity/), than it was unsuccesfull try on NBA... In 1999 i've started my work on tennis program, it seemed to be quite succesfull, but i was too young, and wanted too much. I used to be big soccer fan, so i'v started to write my own soccer prediction program.
One year has passed...
I've learn a lot about models, self-studying programs, theory of probabilities, but i wasn't able to create _good_ predictions module...
So, i've decided to find most profitable kind of sport. I wrote a program, which analysed odds&results for one year, using self-educational algorithm (i mean, it was searching for any dependencies in results by its own). and got interesting results :)
Most unpredictable sport was... yes, you're right, that was soccer!
Than came MLB, NHL, NBA, eurohockey, eurobasketball, and finally, tennis!!!
Football Symphony and PCSoccer are aimed on wide number of people (because there are lot of soccer fans in any country, and much less - hockey or tennis). They just want everyone to buy their program, wide advertising, popular sport being predicted...
It's _impossible_ (or, at least, very difficult) to write a program, which predicts soccer games. Maybe one league - OK, i might believe in it, but there is NOT any universal algorithm for all soccer games, i'm sure.
If you want to profit from cyber-picks - predict "predictable" kind of sport. For me it's a tennis :) and i don't want to sell my program, because i can win enough, using it's predictions.
That's all, i've wrotre all this only because of this phrase:
computer program cannot deliver picks.
It can, and i know one example :)
Good luck everyone!
Most unpredictable sport was... yes, you're right, that was soccer!
Than came MLB, NHL, NBA, eurohockey, eurobasketball, and finally, tennis!!!
Do you think that results from one year can be representative? Have you ever tried to perform such analysis using results from more seasons? In what way exactly did you determine which sport is most predictable?
I ask this because I was also trying to find general rules concerning some sports and leagues. Results were different from season to season. For instance, in some seasons teams that had hard schedule (like 3 matches in 6 days in soccer) did realy bad, so it was very profitable way of finding value bets, but the next season teams in same position did great. I think that any analysis (just like your's about soccer, MLB, NHL...) must prove itself during longer time to become acceptable. BTW, was there big difference in predictability of these sports?
In what way exactly did you determine which sport is most predictable?
The program was looking for stats, which reflects team (players) strength, for example number of games during several last days played, goals scored at home or away, sets won, games difference, lots of parametres...
Because it was self-studying, in the end it got best (in this cases) algorithmes and at last tried to predict all this games.
Soccer was about 55%, as far as i remember (-20% in flatbetting), MLB, NHL and NBA were close enough, nearly 60%, but still minus in flat.
Eurohockey was first profitable kind of sport with 62% and +3 in flat, then eurobasketball (65% and 5%) and tennis with 65% and 7% in flat.
This mean that it's easily to predict tenni (at least algorithmes are easily to find).
Later, i tried it on tennis again (next season), without changing anything.
Results were practically same (64% and 6%). So, it seems to me that they are quite reliable.
I wasn't looking for criterias how estimate "right" bet (like you did), i just wanted to know, which sport is easier to predict.
I would gladly try several new results, for more years, but hardware crash, and i don't have this analysing program, and i don't want to spend my time writing it again.
I've made my mind about most profitable sport already :)
@DiMok
I have tried your site today and asked for Lapentti vs. Horna...your machine told me to bet on Horna 2:0 althoughs the odds were about 4.sth for him...I was sceptical to bet against the favourite...I betted with Arena-Money on it...Damn...stupid...:)
But, you know...Horna-Lapentti 2:0
The problem is only to create algorithmes similar to your brain... There are lot of researches, and even a special science.... uhmmm... don't know how it's in English All they trying to do this thing, and managed to achieve some results...
Name of that science is Artificial neural networks .You say ONLY. Yes, that’s only one problem but VERY complex problem. I've been working on one small project about neural networks, 5 years ago when I was still studying and I can tell from my experience that it’s very interesting and as I can see there are some results. I mean people have made a program that can play chess very successfully, even against Kasparov. But know what?.That kind of programs (algorithm) is successful only in areas where the problem is determinated, or it is strictly limited by rules. More rules we have more complex is to make an algorithm.So here we have as a problem a prediction on some sport.
I ask :Is this problem limited by some rules?
Answer :Of course NO.
Logical decision: That kind of programs (algorithms) don't exist now, and if you are asking me they will not exist for a long, long time. I mean programs that can tell you for SURE on what to bet. Maximum what you can get is about 70% (my opinion) and NOT every time. But,do you need a predicton program then?
The problem is only to create algorithmes similar to your brain... There are lot of researches, and even a special science.... uhmmm... don't know how it's in English All they trying to do this thing, and managed to achieve some results...
Name of that science is Artificial neural networks .You say ONLY. Yes, that***8217;s only one problem but VERY complex problem. I've been working on one small project about neural networks, 5 years ago when I was still studying and I can tell from my experience that it***8217;s very interesting and as I can see there are some results. I mean people have made a program that can play chess very successfully, even against Kasparov.
Thank you :) Now i know, what i am interested in :) :) :)
But know what?.That kind of programs (algorithm) is successful only in areas where the problem is determinated, or it is strictly limited by rules. More rules we have more complex is to make an algorithm.So here we have as a problem a prediction on some sport.
I ask :Is this problem limited by some rules?
Answer :Of course NO.
Of course NO! Anyone, who pretend to guess everything is a lyar!
Logical decision: That kind of programs (algorithms) don't exist now, and if you are asking me they will not exist for a long, long time. I mean programs that can tell you for SURE on what to bet. Maximum what you can get is about 70% (my opinion) and NOT every time. But,do you need a predicton program then?
Wrong logic :) i can't create "perfect" program, i even can not create 80%, but i can create 67%! You forgot about TIME! Why should i surf the net every day, searching for info, studyong draws and fresh results to find good pick if i can just click a button and get my reliable prediction?
You see, i'm _very_ lazy and a little bit greedy person, my dream was to gambling without even being interested in gambling itself, i didn't want to think about my picks. This means, that they should be chosen by computer. I've spend enough time, and now do what i do - i gamble not for joy or risk, i gamble for _money_. And it is easier for me to bet using special software. Because i've done it by myself, i believe in it.
And it seems to work :)[/quote]
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