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interbastian
27-05-08, 00:02
My first thought for this match is over 2.5 goals.

Uruguay is historically a defensive minded team but in this Tabárez era offense is the strong side of the team, defense the weak.

For the match against Turkey there was no good conditions two players made their absolute premier in the national team and another like Eguren was back after a very long time.
Other players that the technician consider titular like polifunctional Álvaro González of Boca Juniors was not available. Same case aplied to Sebastián Abreu and defender Andrés Scotti.

Still the team performed well and won to my happy surprise.
On thing that wasn't a surprise was that the match went over 2.5 goals.

Norwegean domestic football offers tipically high scoring games. The list of the national teams latest matches suggest that this is the case when playing internationals too.

For me over 2.5 goals is therefor well worth a try. To my surprise odds are really good, better than under.

Bridges
27-05-08, 01:59
Norwegian squad:

Rune Almenning Jarstein - Rosenborg
Håkon Opdal - Brann
Martin Andresen - Vålerenga
Eirik Bakke - Brann
John Carew - Aston Villa
Vadim Demidov - Rosenborg
Tarik Elyounoussi - Fredrikstad
Christian Grindheim - Heerenveen
Brede Hangeland - Fulham
Thorstein Helstad - Brann
Daniel Fredheim Holm - Vålerenga
Jon Inge Høiland - Stabæk
Azar Karadas - Brann
Erik Nevland - Fulham
Morten Gamst Pedersen - Blackburn
Tore Reginiussen - Tromsø
John Arne Riise - Liverpool
Per Ciljan Skjelbred - Rosenborg
Jan Gunnar Solli - Brann
Jarl-André Storbæk - Vålerenga
Fredrik Strømstad - Start
Kjetil Wæhler - Vålerenga

Most intresting is probably that four U-21 players(Demidov, Reginiussen, Skjeldbreid and Elyounoussi) is taken is promoted to A-team, only Demidov and Elyounoussi got their first call here tho. Otherwise is the Vålerenga players Fredheim Holm and Wæhler back after a pretty long break from the national team. While Strømstad still get his chance deposite only playing 2nd level football, as he have been one of very few showing decent level in the latest NT matches. Intresting also that Karadaz got a call up after just a short periode in his "new" role as centre defender at Brann.

No starting line-up is picked by Hareide yet. But some indication on who will start was showned on the first traning session today. It seams like it might be some kind of 4-3-3 formation.

GK:
Its pretty certaint that Jarstain get his first chance from start here. Opdal have struggled on both natinal team and club lately and will likely be subed for this match. But they might get one half each.

Defence:
Riise on leftback and Hangeland in central defence is safe bets, only injuries will keep them from starting spots. Its also looks like Reginiussen get a new chance in central defence after a bit nervouse debut against Montenegro in last NT match. Right lock more open at the moment as Høiland played league game today and not joined the squad yet. But it will be either Høiland or Storbæk.

Midfield:
Andresen as captein seams pretty clear to be a starter here. And might get company with Skjeldbreid and Grindheim.

Attack:
Carew will start if hes fit. After several poor NT matches it seams like Gamst Pedersen finally might be out of the starting eleven, and youngster Elyounoussi might get his chance. But a bit hard to say as Gamst had to leave stop the traning session with minor injury today. Nevland seams to be the third man up front.

Probably line-up:
-----------------------Jarstein-------------------------
Storbæk(Høiland)--Reginiussen--Hangeland--Riise
Skjeldbreid---------Andresen------------Grindheim
Nevland--------------Carew-----Elyounoussi(Gamst)

It will anyway be some substitutions during the game.

interbastian
27-05-08, 12:10
Thanks for the info about the Norwegian team, Bridges.
I'm more certain now than ever this will be an over 2.5 goals match.

I see that the nordic team is facing similar situation as the Charruas did in their recent encounter against the turks with some new players to the national team and another that is back after a long time.

News from Uruguay say that strategist Tabárez will insist on fielding players that did not perform well last time but need playtime in order to get into form for the world cup qualifiers coming up in June.
Such is the case of playmaker Ignacio González that was one of the best players in the league but then was transfered to Europe to sit on the bench.
Another case is goalkeeper Carini that mixed high and low performances last time.

Forlan will probably be back after injury to this game and strengthen a already very strong attack for Uruguay with in form Ajax striker Suárez.

Lugano's place in central defense will still be occupied by talented youngster Cáceres.

I have already taken over 2.5 goals, odds 2.0 at Betsafe.

Y-N-W-A
27-05-08, 13:25
Predicitons on this game from bookies is:
1: 40 %
X: 29 %
2: 31 %

over 2.5: 47%
under 2.5: 53%

Norway slight favourite. Anything on team news who are playing and is Uruguay going for this game on theyre A team. Should Norway be bigger favourite here?

interbastian
27-05-08, 13:53
Predicitons on this game from bookies is:
1: 40 %
X: 29 %
2: 31 %

over 2.5: 47%
under 2.5: 53%

Norway slight favourite. Anything on team news who are playing and is Uruguay going for this game on theyre A team. Should Norway be bigger favourite here?

If you read previous posts you will find answers to your questions already.

I can however summarize it once again. Uruguay views this as a training match for upcoming world cup qualifiers in June. Some of the players the coach considers titular are not in the squad because of important engagement with their clubs.
Of course Uru will try to win but most important is the functioning of the team.

In my mind Norway have to many newcomers to be favorite, I would say that value is on the Charruas but the most likely outcome in my mind is over 2.5 goals.
In this new Tabárez era offense is strong and defense weak.
Norwegian domestic football tends to be high scoring as is the national team's results lately.
So I don't agree with bookies odds, for me over is well worth a shot.

Y-N-W-A
27-05-08, 15:34
"So I don't agree with bookies odds, for me over is well worth a shot."

So how much would you give on over 2.5 goals? (%) What would be youre odd that you would bet on?

Bridges
27-05-08, 19:48
From todays tainingsession it locks much as after yesterdays session.

Some injury update tho.
Erik Bakke and Daniel Fredheim Holm have to skip the match with injuries, while Helstad still is doubtful.

Defensive look pretty clear now.
Jarstein as gk.
Høiland seams to take the right back position.
Reginiussen and Hangeland central defenders.
Riise on left back.
Its bit more uncerteint offensive but the midfield doas still seams to be Andresen, Skjeldbreid and Grindheim.
Carew is sure on top, the biggest questions is who he get on his sides. So far it still seams to be Elyounoussi and Nevland, but Gamst and Helstad doas not seam to be out of the picture yet either.

----------------------------Jarstein-----------------------
Høiland------Reginiussen-------Hangeland--------Riise
Skjeldbreid-------------Andresen------------Grindheim
Nevland(Helstad)--------Carew----Elyounoussi(Gamst)

interbastian
27-05-08, 22:28
"So I don't agree with bookies odds, for me over is well worth a shot."

So how much would you give on over 2.5 goals? (%) What would be youre odd that you would bet on?

In %? about 25% of my bank.
High stakes

Y-N-W-A
28-05-08, 00:00
"So I don't agree with bookies odds, for me over is well worth a shot."

So how much would you give on over 2.5 goals? (%) What would be youre odd that you would bet on?

In %? about 25% of my bank.
High stakes

25% on youre bankroll? heh, that high stakes allright...

I ment how often do you think in that game comes over 2.5 goals? 25%, 50% 75%?

Binny
28-05-08, 01:36
Norwegian team full a overrated footballers.Coach said from now on he will not chooice players that not giving 100% all the way so many has something to prove.

I have a good felling as Uuguay are a team we should handle well at home but i never trust a bunch a soft footballers with limited skills

dpo you ?

No bet

interbastian
28-05-08, 02:10
"So I don't agree with bookies odds, for me over is well worth a shot."

So how much would you give on over 2.5 goals? (%) What would be youre odd that you would bet on?

In %? about 25% of my bank.
High stakes

25% on youre bankroll? heh, that high stakes allright...

I ment how often do you think in that game comes over 2.5 goals? 25%, 50% 75%?

Are you asking for the statistical chances of the two outcomes?

I don't know. Bookies offer lower odds on under so they have probably calculated this is the statistically most likely outcome.

However my bet is not based on statistics but on form, player material, tactics, priorities and strength & weakness of both teams.

And yes 25% is very high but as my total bank right now is only the equivalent of about 15-20 euros it is not a lot of money.
Actually it's a very small amount of money.

I doubt very much I would bet large amounts on this game.

Y-N-W-A
28-05-08, 10:17
"So I don't agree with bookies odds, for me over is well worth a shot."

So how much would you give on over 2.5 goals? (%) What would be youre odd that you would bet on?

In %? about 25% of my bank.
High stakes

25% on youre bankroll? heh, that high stakes allright...

I ment how often do you think in that game comes over 2.5 goals? 25%, 50% 75%?

Are you asking for the statistical chances of the two outcomes?

I don't know. Bookies offer lower odds on under so they have probably calculated this is the statistically most likely outcome.

However my bet is not based on statistics but on form, player material, tactics, priorities and strength & weakness of both teams.

And yes 25% is very high but as my total bank right now is only the equivalent of about 15-20 euros it is not a lot of money.
Actually it's a very small amount of money.

I doubt very much I would bet large amounts on this game.

OK. I normally calculate the chance of happening from statistics, form, tactics, priorities, strenghts and so on... and calculate my stakes from there. Bookers do that also, they dont just use statistics. They give around 47% for over 2.5 to happening. I think its over 50% and will play it also. On Norways game there has been lots of goal recently and this is only a friendly so I think both teams play much more freedomwise. Have to look what bookies gives the best odds. My bets never go over 5% of my bettingbankroll. But its sometimes hard to get even that accepted to bookies. Its sick how they limit youre bets nowadays.

interbastian
28-05-08, 10:52
OK. I normally calculate the chance of happening from statistics, form, tactics, priorities, strenghts and so on... and calculate my stakes from there. Bookers do that also, they dont just use statistics. They give around 47% for over 2.5 to happening. I think its over 50% and will play it also. On Norways game there has been lots of goal recently and this is only a friendly so I think both teams play much more freedomwise. Have to look what bookies gives the best odds. My bets never go over 5% of my bettingbankroll. But its sometimes hard to get even that accepted to bookies. Its sick how they limit youre bets nowadays.

You never bet more than 5% of your bank and still get limited by bookies? You must have a substantial amount of money to punt!
I can't afford to spend lots of money but even if I could I'm not sure I would dare.
I'm impressed by your courage.

As we all know bookies are no fools and are successful most of the times. It would be unwise to go against their calculations too often.
Occasionally however they get it wrong, based on all the factors you mention I also think this is one of those few times and I hope to take advantage of that.

Y-N-W-A
28-05-08, 13:01
OK. I normally calculate the chance of happening from statistics, form, tactics, priorities, strenghts and so on... and calculate my stakes from there. Bookers do that also, they dont just use statistics. They give around 47% for over 2.5 to happening. I think its over 50% and will play it also. On Norways game there has been lots of goal recently and this is only a friendly so I think both teams play much more freedomwise. Have to look what bookies gives the best odds. My bets never go over 5% of my bettingbankroll. But its sometimes hard to get even that accepted to bookies. Its sick how they limit youre bets nowadays.

You never bet more than 5% of your bank and still get limited by bookies? You must have a substantial amount of money to punt!
I can't afford to spend lots of money but even if I could I'm not sure I would dare.
I'm impressed by your courage.

As we all know bookies are no fools and are successful most of the times. It would be unwise to go against their calculations too often.
Occasionally however they get it wrong, based on all the factors you mention I also think this is one of those few times and I hope to take advantage of that.

You dont have to be big to get limits at bookies. Certain bookies limit youre bets very fast if they see youre making winning bets and dont "gamble". I made only couple over 100 euro bets on Betsafe and now i can bet 1 euro per game, for some not even that. Other bookies took longer but they did it also at some point. I hope all the bookies are not going that road. Of course not all the bookies limit youre bets and i hope it stays that way for the future.

By the way, you should have waited a little bit before making a bet, over 2.5 is now 2.11 at best. Dont think it gets any bigger though, but im taking that medium stakes. Also over 2.25 at 1.83 at Canbet is as good as 2.11.

Bridges
28-05-08, 18:57
Official line-up:
Rune Jarstein
Jon Inge Høiland, Brede Hangeland, Tore Reginiussen, John Arne Riise.
Christian Grindheim, Martin Andresen , Per Ciljan Skjelbred.
Jan Gunnar Solli, John Carew , Morten Gamst Pedersen

Bit strange Solli came in on right attack imo, otherwise is pretty much as expected.