Handball Bundesliga, 21/22/23 December [Archive]

View Full Version : Handball Bundesliga, 21/22/23 December

mr.patience

20-12-04, 10:57

drobek

20-12-04, 23:19

Hi, mr. patience !

I'm glad to see you and I'm glad to see this topic, I'm going through all matches right now, so I'll try to post few thoughts later.

Now jus shortly to games you've mentioned:

At first glance I should say, I wouldn't touch Kiel at odds below 1.90 ! In fact, better option is to wait for the game lines and then we'll see.
Offering Kiel @ 1.60 in Essen is robbery, or better to say - mistake. But Let's wait for the spread and total goals offer.

As for the Lemgo at Magdeburg : die Börderlandhalle wasn't a friendly place for Lemgo over past years, Magdeburg leads the H2Hs there with 4-0-1, with the only defeat way back in 2000.
Last year the match ended 33:30, previous 3 won SCM by 13, 8 and 15 goals.

OK, it looks like die Gladiatoren are strugling with form constance, but their last home performances were more than just solid. So, to back Lemgo's straight win I'd need odds arround 2.60 or higher.
Once again, I advice here to wait for the game lines.

Would be nice to hear Lakini's opinion too.

Note: I just want to add, that CB offers Lemgo @ 2.65, which is worth considering!

mr.patience

21-12-04, 09:05

drobek

21-12-04, 09:49

Thanks for your help, drobek.

As you said, SCM has been struggling recently. Also they lost at home vs Essen and Flensburg (if I'm not wrong) so maybe if there are no hcap lines, it will be worth a try (small stakes, obviously).

Another question: what do you think of Gummerbach +2.5? Is there any value?

Hmmm, perhaps I've got too much respect for HSV playing at home, but I wouldn't bet on Gummersbach unless they receive huge +4.5 goals advantage. This won't happen for sure, so I probably stay away or maybe I'll put small stake on HSV -2.5.
Btw. Bet365 has given visitors +3.5, so if you trust them..... :wink:

mr.patience

21-12-04, 11:47

Any german (or not) that could explain what's happening with HSV Hamburg? Would it affect to players?

Lakini

21-12-04, 12:01

Hi all!

Odds from BAW:

21/12
HSV Hamburg 1.30 X 12.00 VfL Gummersbach 3.40
TuSEM Essen 2.30 X 11.00 THW Kiel 1.60

22/12
SC Magdeburg 1.55 X 11.00 TBV Lemgo 2.40
HSG Duesseldorf 6.10 X 13.00 SG Flensburg-Handewitt 1.10

23/12
HSG D/M Wetzlar 1.35 X 11.50 TV Großwallstadt 3.10

¿Do you see any value on Lemgo @ 2.40? Magdeburg lost yesterday vs Großwallstadt. Three lost games from last 6 (they lost also vs Kiel and Flensburg).

Also I think I'll take Kiel @ 1.60 (or Kiel + Flensburg @ 1.76)

Any opinions?

Let me just write some thoughts here.

Magdeburg is gonna beat Lemgo easily, but no big value in them, but Hcp is worth a try. Flensburg at 1.10 is - believe it or not - a Valuebet..;).
Kiel at 1.60 is an early xmas gift, GB has even 1.67, correct would be sth like 1.35.
Hamburg at 1.30 is probably a bit too low, however, they are playing in Colour Line Arena again and I have no big doubts they will win. The financial problems do not play a big role so far for the players, they became even better - all that started a few months ago. Best value I see in Grosswallstadt.

step

21-12-04, 13:46

i placed my bet on kiel, but drobek gave my some suspition. lakini on the other hand said kiel is sure. what to do. i have kiel in combo. sould i play cover +1.5 on essen? guys? help, advice, please

Lakini

21-12-04, 14:27

i placed my bet on kiel, but drobek gave my some suspition. lakini on the other hand said kiel is sure. what to do. i have kiel in combo. sould i play cover +1.5 on essen? guys? help, advice, please

I cant tell you, Drobek said 1.60 is mistake, cause its too low, I say its mistake cause its too high..:)

At Puntertown we have taken 1.75 at Unibet.

Kiel won 9 of last 10, they come with their best team while Essen is without Torgovanov. They dont play at Essen, instead at Oberhausen today.

mrki_tua

22-12-04, 22:32

HSG D/M Wetzlar 1.35 X 11.50 TV Großwallstadt 3.10
I have in my local bookies handicap with -3,5 and -2,5 for Wetzlar amd under/over line is 54,5...
Any oppinion will help... :roll:

Lakini

22-12-04, 22:37

HSG D/M Wetzlar 1.35 X 11.50 TV Großwallstadt 3.10
I have in my local bookies handicap with -3,5 and -2,5 for Wetzlar amd under/over line is 54,5...
Any oppinion will help... :roll:

I think that Grosswallstadt +3.5 is worth a try, about over/under: Dont touch it, can be this or that, hard to know, depends on how the game develops! Generally I prefer over, cause both teams started playing more offensively.

23-12-04, 11:07

In some newspaper I read that Wetzlar hall is one of the hottest handball halls in Germany so I think Gro. will have hard times there especialy these days when home teams are very motivated. Gro. have no away win yet and I would like to know where to find H2H between these two teams for past or if someone know it? Thanks :D

mrki_tua

23-12-04, 11:09

Well it looks like we're going to wait for Handball Master to respond.... :lol:

zaplis

23-12-04, 11:20

dino

23-12-04, 11:52

Thanks zaplis and if the trend will go on all points toward the home win. So thats my opinion cause I dont have other informations about german handball. Hope to see some other opinions too. Good luck! :wink:

23-12-04, 12:13

Ive only recently started trying to get my head around handball using stats only. As I can't understand german or any other foreign language and have no idea with regards team news etc. so I rely on a small program I have which keeps a record of results etc. then gives a rough percentage of what it thinks will be the outcome. Its mainly designed for footie but Ive been trying other sports in it as well.

Anyway, it gives percentages for this game as 56-06-38 and the current record when this program gives a % of >=56 is 19 wins and 1 draw. Its not so hot on handicap marks so I can't help with that.

juankaan

23-12-04, 12:48

Completely agree with Lakini... U/O 53.5 @gb is a great line...
I would never bet against Großwallstadt @1.40...

Prefer the OVER @GB @1.80 for 3-4 STAKES..

Maybe a COMBO with

QATAR @2.10 (Gulf Cup)
EFES PILSEN @1.75 (Euroleague)
OVER 53.5 @1.80 (German Handball)

Would be a nice combo for me for 1/10 STAKES

drobek

23-12-04, 14:45

Well, nice and busy thread this one ! We***8217;ve got one single match left before Christmas, then BL will continue on 26th of December, so no major break .

As for today***8217;s game, I agree Wetzlar looks to be favourite to také the win. The question is, are the odds worth anything or will hosts beat the Hcp ?
I know, everybody can find the stats somewhere, but I tried to make small resume:

Wetzlar is 13th with 12 points, 6-0-1 212:195 at home, played mostly weaker teams there or mediocre ones out of form. The only quality opponent was Kiel, won there 33:25 easily we can say.

Visitors are one place behind them with 4 points less, 0-0-7 151:201 away, lost to Flensburg as well as to Pfullingen. They***8217;ve got terrible start to the season, but recently managed two great results by defeating HSV and Magdeburg at home, still were unable to build on those good results when playing abroad and dissapointed badly against Pfullingen with 24:29 defeat.

Their H2Hs in last four years are very even:

2004-02-07 Grosswallstadt Wetzlar 32 : 25
2002-12-14 Grosswallstadt Wetzlar 25 : 27
2002-05-12 Grosswallstadt Wetzlar 35 : 20
2001-02-11 Grosswallstadt Wetzlar 21 : 21

2003-09-10 Wetzlar Grosswallstadt 24 : 25
2003-05-21 Wetzlar Grosswallstadt 24 : 21
2001-12-07 Wetzlar Grosswallstadt 24 : 24
2000-08-16 Wetzlar Grosswallstadt 23 : 18

They are 3-2-3 overall, both 2-1-1 at home. Appart from last year***8217;s match match in Aschaffenburg there were mostly low scoring matches between them, especially when they***8217;ve meet in Wetzlar. Not even one single 50goals match there!

So one might say, history speaks for itselfs, let***8217;s go for UNDER once again, but I***8217;d be very cautious with such decision.

I went through some stats and here we can see both teams home/away records over past seasons and also their Total goals averages in home/away matches:

03 / 04 Wetzlar home 52.5 (7-3-7), Grosswallstadt away 51.5 (2-4-11)
02 / 03 WH 51.1 (9-1-7), GA 50.8 (2-4-11)
01 / 02 WH 51.8 (8-4-6), GA 51.9 (1-2-14)
00 / 01 WH 49.8 (11-2-6), GA 49.8 (6-3-10)

So, it***8217;s quite clear, those lowscoring results were logical because of their playing style, both averaging just arround 50-51 goals
And what about this season? Wetzlar has average Total number of goals when playing at home 58.1, while Grosswallstadt is once again 50.2 on the road.
So, obviously something has changed in home team, while the visitors are sticking with what they are used to.

Wetzlar has changed it***8217;s game a lot, playing much more offensively now, both home and away. It worked almost perfectly in Sporthalle Dutenhofen, where they score amazing 30.3 goals per match this season! Alvanos, Golic, Monnberg and Chalepo were responsible for most of them so far.
They***8217;ve been no factor in matches abroad so far, 0-0-8 is their record, doesn***8217;t need any comments I believe***8230;***8230;

Visitors were involved in few lowscoring affairs at the beggining of the season and then got limited to 16 and 19 goals by Lemgo and Gummersbach, so no wonder their total goals average is that low. This trend has changed a bit lately with 52 goals in Nordhorn and 53 in Pfullingen, still nothing special and still their contribution was not that big ***8211; 22 and 24 goals respectively.
It***8217;s been completely different story in last two home matches, they won against HSV 31:28 and last round defeated also Magdeburg 37:36! And surely one of the reasons is the great performance from Lochman. This Ukrainian international is new signing since summer, but failed to produce the goods so far, finaly woke up last round and booked 12 goals!
It would be great for them to have additional man with good scoring potential, as so far they relied mostly only on Holmgeirsson and Kuntze and this was too little many times.
Unfortunately not only good news are comming from their team as there are some queries about form of their star goalkeeper Lichtlein, but well, he***8217;s young and will show his talent again.

So, we have solid home team on one side and Grosswallstadt on uptrend but with terrible away record on the other side. Every series must end once, but if we také a look at G***8217;wallstadt***8217;s away record in past season, it might took bit longer than 14 rounds***8230;..

Anyway, no value in odds like 1.35 on straight home win I***8217;d say and absolutely no oppinion on Hcps. I must admit, +3.5 for visitors (available at Bet365) looks like healthy advantage, but remember their match at Pfullingen, when we thought the same and they lost by 5goals and never got a chance there!
On the other hand their form***8216;s rising so it***8217;s also problematic to back the hosts even against ***8211;2.5 goals Hcp.

What***8217;s more interesting is the line for totals goals. It***8217;s been set to 53.5 as everybody expects another lowscoring match, but I***8217;m not that sure about it. Like I wrote before, Wetzlar changed it***8217;s style completely, playing very offensively and it***8217;s worked so far at home, so there***8217;s no need to change it. Chalepo and Caillat should be available for this match and this is big boost for hosts,as these two belong to their main offensive weapons.

Not that big change of style from Grosswallstadt, at leastnot inaway matches so far, but already in Pfullingen they combined for 53 goals with hosts and Pfullingen averages just under 52 goals total in their home matches! With their attack starting to produce some goods lately, with higher self-confidence after two great home wins against top teams, they should act more decisively in offense today and contribute with more than usual 22-23 goals. To be honest, I expect something like 26-27 from them today.
Just need to add those average 30 from hosts and we are well beyond 53 goals line. Easy, ain***8217;t it?

Actually, it isn***8217;t. Like Lakini mentioned already, it***8217;ll be very important how the game will develop. Should they both get off to the quick start, than the OVER looks very good. But once they***8217;ll find themselves with smthg like 3:3 score after 11 minutes, than they***8217;ll continue same way till the end.

All in all, after 1 hour of writing there is (almost) no conlusion regarding what to bet on in this match.

For me, the best option is OVER 53.5 goals, still 5/10 stake would be more than enough.

mrki_tua

23-12-04, 16:19

Thank you Drobek, as i thought we should skip this match... 8)

23-12-04, 20:45

Wetzlar won 29-25

mrki_tua

23-12-04, 20:51

Nice, everybody won, someone took over 53,5 and someone under 55,5... :lol: And once again the day is saved thanks to Drobek... :lol:

drobek

23-12-04, 22:37

They proved me how wrong I was: 13:10 was the HT result and still they were able to get beyond 53 goals mark scoring just needed 31 goals in second half!

But once again, visitors failed to produce anything and I really wonder whether they'll get some points on the road this season
:roll: ...