AlexWM
25-09-04, 18:58
Played in B&W:
Cars to be classified: 10-11 cars. Odds 7X - Stake 1.43
Cars to be classified: 12-13 cars. Odds 5X - Stake 2
Cars to be classified: 14-15 cars. Odds 3X - Stake 1.8
Which driver will be the first to retire from the race?
Two or more cars in same lap 3.00X - stake 2 units
Reason is that the track has a blind corner that drivers tend to get it wrong. The flowing nature of the first few corners, also spell doom for those that keep the throttle floored during the first lap in an effort to overtake at these first turns. Generally I expect a high attrition rate both due to engine loads and crashes.
Will both drivers of the same team finish in the top 3?
Cars of three different teams in top 3: odds 1.9 - stake 9 units.
I really can't see how this can be otherwise. Only fear is if MS implements some kind of weird long-stopping strategy and overtakes the others due to fewer pitstops and ends up in the podium. While it's possible I don't see this happening. I have the sense that the Bridgestone tires are too soft to cope with such a strategy.
Driver to to come in second place: Kimi @3.4 (this is a cover for the next bet) with 2 units.
Interwetten:
GP Winner: Kimi @4.2 6 units, covered with 2 units@2.7 for Kimi not to finish the race. I think Kimi has a decent possibility to win as long as his car is ok. I'm making a half estimation-half assumption in expecting that the Michelin tires are more durable and more suited for race circumstances. I have the impression that the Bridgestone are too soft. Problem is that Barichello can use soft tires to his advantage and every time this has happened (later part 2003), he always went great.
H2H: Villeneuve - Sato: Sato @2.1 - 3 units.
I expect Villeneuve will pick pace during the second part of the race as he gradually gets himself reacquainted with F1 racing. Normally Sato is a dangerous bet, not only for his fiery character, but also his tendency to blow up engines. But this engine he's got now, is newer with a bit less mileage. This should theoretically ensure a non-blow up.
I think the BAR is better anyway, and Sato is a good racer. The car also has a good engine that will help him climb the grid.
Zonta-Klien (1) 1.8 - 6 units
Zonta is by far the better driver of the two and has a very good car. His qualify time doesn't reflect the true performance he has and thus odds are higher than they should be. Plus, the Toyota is generally more reliable and we can win this one simply be Klien retiring in smokes.
Button-Alonso (1) 1.7 - 3 units.
Button is better placed, has pace and will win this. Renault lack something and their car is twitchy. Why 3 units? Because of reliability worries that I have.
Button/Zonta combo - 1 unit @ 3.06. That's just for fun.
Another unit for Massa-Button-Kimi in top6 (pays around ~4.1X and 4.9 in B&W although I don't remember if they take combo of this)
Cars to be classified: 10-11 cars. Odds 7X - Stake 1.43
Cars to be classified: 12-13 cars. Odds 5X - Stake 2
Cars to be classified: 14-15 cars. Odds 3X - Stake 1.8
Which driver will be the first to retire from the race?
Two or more cars in same lap 3.00X - stake 2 units
Reason is that the track has a blind corner that drivers tend to get it wrong. The flowing nature of the first few corners, also spell doom for those that keep the throttle floored during the first lap in an effort to overtake at these first turns. Generally I expect a high attrition rate both due to engine loads and crashes.
Will both drivers of the same team finish in the top 3?
Cars of three different teams in top 3: odds 1.9 - stake 9 units.
I really can't see how this can be otherwise. Only fear is if MS implements some kind of weird long-stopping strategy and overtakes the others due to fewer pitstops and ends up in the podium. While it's possible I don't see this happening. I have the sense that the Bridgestone tires are too soft to cope with such a strategy.
Driver to to come in second place: Kimi @3.4 (this is a cover for the next bet) with 2 units.
Interwetten:
GP Winner: Kimi @4.2 6 units, covered with 2 units@2.7 for Kimi not to finish the race. I think Kimi has a decent possibility to win as long as his car is ok. I'm making a half estimation-half assumption in expecting that the Michelin tires are more durable and more suited for race circumstances. I have the impression that the Bridgestone are too soft. Problem is that Barichello can use soft tires to his advantage and every time this has happened (later part 2003), he always went great.
H2H: Villeneuve - Sato: Sato @2.1 - 3 units.
I expect Villeneuve will pick pace during the second part of the race as he gradually gets himself reacquainted with F1 racing. Normally Sato is a dangerous bet, not only for his fiery character, but also his tendency to blow up engines. But this engine he's got now, is newer with a bit less mileage. This should theoretically ensure a non-blow up.
I think the BAR is better anyway, and Sato is a good racer. The car also has a good engine that will help him climb the grid.
Zonta-Klien (1) 1.8 - 6 units
Zonta is by far the better driver of the two and has a very good car. His qualify time doesn't reflect the true performance he has and thus odds are higher than they should be. Plus, the Toyota is generally more reliable and we can win this one simply be Klien retiring in smokes.
Button-Alonso (1) 1.7 - 3 units.
Button is better placed, has pace and will win this. Renault lack something and their car is twitchy. Why 3 units? Because of reliability worries that I have.
Button/Zonta combo - 1 unit @ 3.06. That's just for fun.
Another unit for Massa-Button-Kimi in top6 (pays around ~4.1X and 4.9 in B&W although I don't remember if they take combo of this)