View Full Version : Need a good system for a very small account
After systematically increasing my "bank" on betfair, I lost almost all of it due to the one thing which screws up the system - a player retiring in the wrong moment (Kiefer retiring vs Henman). This proved to me that no matter how good a system might work, as long as it has a condition in order to work, it can fail.
How small my current account is? Not bigger than 100 USD, lets put it at that.
I need a plan in order to TRY and increase my bank. I know this is extremely difficult but I have nothing to lose, and would like to try. I lost 95% of my bank in minutes, but if I can build back up to 100% within months, I am willing to do so.
What is a good plan for a small bank? Risking half of it each time and then again half of it, and then again? Betting only odds of 2, only odds of 1.2?
Any tips, systems, methods and strategies would be GREATLY appreciated!
THANKS!
Generally said, it doesn't matter how much you have in your bank. If it's 100 USD, 1000 USD or be it 1 mio. There is no system that can guarantee you to ever win your money back.
The only thing that'll help you for now is:
A) Going all in and parlaying your way up again at high risk of busting the remainder of the account balance.
B) Try increasing the chance of survival and bankroll build up by using the common mathematics of betting.
Losing 95% of your stake on a live betting event makes me think that you rather take the gambling approach (as I have found doing it myself in live betting way too often) and then go on tilt. Dunno if anyone can answer this question in a better way, but I see no chance to use any kind of system in the quest to get your losses back quickly.
I just wanna add that if there were easy ways to quickly get rich then everybody would be millionaires!! :):)
I'm not asking for a sure way to make money, I'm asking for the right approach to try and recover from this.
When you have 1,000 USD in your account it makes no sense to bet 500 USD on a 3.00 odd, but with 100 USD it makes more sense to bet 50 USD on a 3.00 odd. I do agree that 1,000 and 100 are simply relatively different, but are the same when you apply the betting amount in relation to the full amount, but still, I would be more reluctant to place 500 of 1000 than placing 50 of 100.
What I am asking for is the best strategy to try to build from this. I just gained 8 USD from betting on Hewitt HC minus 1.5 sets (meaning 3-0 or 3-1 Hewitt), but I'm not sure if this is the right approach. The odd was almost 1.20, so if 1 out of 5 times I lose the bet, I don't gain money.
Should I stick to matches who are about an odd of 2 to both sides, should I stick to favourites and bet half of my account each time? I'm asking for an approach, not for a system to win surely.
The advice of paralay doesn't qualify since I'm betting at betfair, so only single bets.
Thanks for any help!
Good tip:
Never ever again stake 95% of your bankroll on one bet. In gentle words, that is not wise.
Spread your risk. Instead of only few big bets, limit yourself to 1 or 2 percent of your bankroll as a max for every bet.
If you risk more, you will drastically increase your chanse of going broke.
I dont think yuvalfra was betting big, but just betting on sure bets (hint: player retiring in the wrong moment)
ps. I dont think you should dramatically change your betting strategy after you have lot a big part of your budget. just bet as you would normally.
yuvalfra,
basically you answered your own question, didn't you?
If you think of $50 as of $50, then go ahead and stake them on whatever odds you find acceptable. It'll be all or nothing from now on.
My idea of this was to think of those $50 as 50% of your bankroll at this time, and then there's only the way to approach it like Proud has commented.
You won't get anybody here to give you a better strategy, 'cos there simply is none!
Ok, thakns guys.
To explain how I lost the money - my system was to back a certain odd and then lay a lower odd, or lay a certain odd and back a higher odd, this way I create "risk-free" profits. Each game I managed to create 50 USD + on a certain player, or even on both players. So if I back a certain player and want to lay him later, and exactly after I back him he retires = screws me.
After this glitch I still had about 75% of my account and in a small profit from initial deposit, but that was like going 2 weeks back after all the progress I made, so like a dumbass I staked 90-95% of the "new" balance on Rochus when he was leading 2 sets and a break against Hrbaty, and ofcourse with my luck mr. Hrbaty woke up and I lost over 900 USD.
So now I'm kinda broke, and wondering as to how I can recover from this. Maybe if I'll have big luck I can recover, because I have J.Johansson, Berdych, Hrbaty and Llodra as winners in the tournament when on each I have 1,000 USD profit and upwards, but with names like Agassi, Federer, Roddick, Hass and Hewitt all in the Quarter finals I find it hard to believe such a thing will save me...but maybe...
Anyway, I understand there's no way to change my strategy in order to work my way up, and it's just as if I have more money, just need to relatively bet less. Thank you all.
You want to build your bank quickly by using big stakes, but unfortunately this involves high risk.
Your disastreous losing experience should have taught you that high staking schemes is not a sound basis for steady profit, and that you need to learn and apply proper money management.
Why not start training right away and treat the $100 bank as you would treat a £10 000 bank? You should set a fixed stake and use that for all your bets without changing it between bets. The stake should be small enough to allow for long losing streaks (which you will get from time to time) without killing the bank. It is important that you don't reduce the stake after a few losses, because then you will have to use much more time to rebuild the bank than it took to reduce it. Recalculate your stake when the bank has grown significantly (for example every time the bank has increased with 25%). Between these recalculations the stake should remain fixed.
From what I've seen the pros tend to use as little as 1% of their bank as stake, and it's not recommended to use more than 2%. With a bank as small as yours this will be a pretty boring way of betting, but you will learn dicipline and money management from it. If you can double $100 this way, you will be able to do the same with a bank of $10 000.
If I were you I would see this as a training project focused on dicipline and money management. Remember that there is no quick route to profit in betting. More betting banks go bust from poor money management than from the inability to pick winners.
Good luck!
Bugs
Well, seeing as I have 100 USD in my bank, it's quite stupid to bet with a stake of 1 USD, and regardless of that, betfair only allows bets higher than 4 USD. I was thinking more along the line of betting half of the bank at any given moment on very low odds, "sure" bets - forinstance a favourite in tennis who's up 2-0 in sets and a break in the 3rd set, that way adding a few dollars to the account. If I manage to increase to 200 USD I start to use 100 USD stakes and so on and so fourth, with the idea of using odds of no more than 1.20.
Is this a sure way of losing?
Thanks again.
are you not reading what others are writing??? :roll: :?
people are discouraging you from playing in this way and you keep asking the same question!!! 8O :?
How small my current account is? Not bigger than 100 USD, lets put it at that.
I need a plan in order to TRY and increase my bank. I know this is extremely difficult but I have nothing to lose, and would like to try. I lost 95% of my bank in minutes, but if I can build back up to 100% within months, I am willing to do so.
As I understand from words above, you want to make 2000$ from 100$. Well, it can't be done within months without HIGH RISK of fast losing even those 100$.
My sincere advice would be that you try to forget the money you lost. Don't chase your previous losses. Now look at those 100$ as your new bank and try to deal with it. Make an excel sheet to keep record of all your bets (this will make you think twice before taking a bet). When you win some money, don't think "oh, I could have staked all I had, now I could have doubled my account".
Now, to future staking. I would not reccomend you to go with more them max 10$ per one bet - or, in other words, make 1unit=1$. Don't go with "high stakes" (8-10$) too often, keep most of the bets at medium level and only sometimes, when there is really good bet go with more. With 100$ you can make turnover in one month of about 300$ and with yield of 10% you could earn 30$ a month. Not big money, but it is still 30% of what you had. When your bankroll reach 200% you can raise your unit to 2$.
Remember, this is still risky system. I would not reccomend more them 5% on one bet (like 5$ to you), but as it is not big money on risk, maybe you can go with a bit more risk. When your bankroll increases, go back to max 5% per one bet.
Good luck with whatever you decide.
Is this a sure way of losing?
I understand your problem, and I might have the kind of solution you so desperately want, although I would not advice anyone to follow it under normal circumstances.
If you want to use high stakes (in terms of percentage of your bank), you need a very high hit rate to avoid going bust, since even the smallest losing streak would do serious damage. These guys might provide such accurate picks for you:
http://oddser.dk/
It's a group of tipsters offering free tips. Their strategy is to stake 20% of their capital on each bet, using mostly banker games at short odds. So far they have been doing all right (tripling their bank since January). This might do the trick for you (or it might not). Try it at your own risk.
But don't forget that sooner or later you'll have to learn proper money management. There's no way around it.
Bugs
Thank you Bugs.
The problem with my big loss a few days ago was not improper money management, because in my strategy I always used no more than 50% of my account. Also after I lost I was still in profit, since I lost about 35-40% of my account but was already in a profit of 45% or so. The problem was after I lost I felt as if I went a week or two back, and wanted to quickly jump back up, so risked 95% of my account on a very low odd, which didn't win. If I would remain calm and start all over, I would still be in profit right now.
I suppose if I ever get back at 1000 USD or so I'll stake 25-30% and no more of my account, so even if I lose, it's not as a harsh and the profits are not much smaller...
Thanks for your advice!
Thank you Bugs.
The problem with my big loss a few days ago was not improper money management, because in my strategy I always used no more than 50% of my account. Also after I lost I was still in profit, since I lost about 35-40% of my account but was already in a profit of 45% or so. The problem was after I lost I felt as if I went a week or two back, and wanted to quickly jump back up, so risked 95% of my account on a very low odd, which didn't win. If I would remain calm and start all over, I would still be in profit right now.
I don't mean to twist the knife around in the wound here, but what you did is the very essence of poor money management. You risked it all because you were greedy. Even using 50% of your account to begin with was poor money management.
Bugs
Yes, that's exactly what I mean - Risking it all was my big mistake, out of impulse and greediness. Using up 40-50% of my bank for the system IMO was not lousy money management. You need to understand my system is to buy a player who'se leading 40-0 in his serve, or leading a break and one game away from winning the set, I simply buy him, then sell him for a lower price and earn the difference (without risk), so risking half of my bank is not exactly true, it's just staked for a few moments, or minutes, until I buy what I sold back, and then I have no loss. It worked perfectly until Kiefer retired while I'm in the process of buying and selling, which is the one thing that totally screws up my system.
Anyway, I've started risking 50% of my bank each time, and so far so good, but worringly no losses as well. I actually started from 70 USD and in about 24 hours managed to bet some low odds, each at 50% of the bank and now I'm at 108 USD which is a 54% increase. If I manage to get to 140 USD, then I have secured the initial amount of 70. Hopefully I can make something out of this strategy, thought it seems quite worthless, as 2 consecutive losses are enough to drain my bank of 75% of its amount.
Please note that I don't have much to lose - I'd rather withdraw the money, than work hard for a month in order to increase the bank to $130, that's why I don't fancy betting small. Betting is not a need for me, or a satisfactory, just an attempt to make money, nothing more, if I fail at doing so, no biggy. So I think I'd rather risk half of my account each time in hope of trying to double or triple my current account, and then re-assessing the situation, than playing it safe and very slow.
Thank you all for you insights.
Little update: I have almost doubled the account, which is currently at 131.40 USD, by staking 50% of the account on low odds - mainly live odds, so that even if things go wrong I can do some damage control. So far so good. A reminder - my account was first at 70 USD.
I will do some laying of low odds as well in attempt to jump up quickly, one of my picks - Roddick to lose. If he struggels I'll buy him back at a lower price and make sure profit.
But still, I feel staking 50% of the account all the time is pretty damn risky, so I won't be surprised if I drop under 100 USD sometime soon. I do plan, however, to lower the percentage used every so many USD I profit, let's say every $25 lower the percentage by 5%.
Congrats with the first doubling. A comment to your posting:
In my opinion, the most important thing to remember when choosing the stake is that if you reduce the stake after a losing streak (as you will every time a 50% stake is lost), you will either need to:
1. Increase your hit rate if you are to have any hope of rebuilding the bank using the same number of picks as it took to reduce it.
2. Bet more picks (therefore use longer time) to rebuild the bank than it took to reduce it.
Many (my self included not too long ago) tend to disregard that aspect. After a heavy loss, it feels safer to reduce the stake, but then you will win more slowly. The implication is that the best thing to do is to choose a stake small enough for you to survive losing streaks without having to reduce it. Only then will you be able to win as fast as you previously lost.
When your bank grows, you can increase the stake proportionally (for example adjust the stake after every 25% bank increase), but between increases the stake should remain fixed. Going back and forth between small and big stakes is a sure way to destroy your expected return.
Using fixed stakes that are never reduced, but only increased step-wise as your bank grows, will ensure that you get the profit you are entitled to according to your ability to pick winners. Right now you are in a situation where you'd rather play risky than fiddle around with small change, but when you have increased your bank so much that you feel money management is worth taking into consideration, try the advice I have given here. You will not regret it.
Good luck with doubling number two!
Bugs
You want to build your bank quickly by using big stakes, but unfortunately this involves high risk.
Your disastreous losing experience should have taught you that high staking schemes is not a sound basis for steady profit, and that you need to learn and apply proper money management.
Why not start training right away and treat the $100 bank as you would treat a £10 000 bank? You should set a fixed stake and use that for all your bets without changing it between bets. The stake should be small enough to allow for long losing streaks (which you will get from time to time) without killing the bank. It is important that you don't reduce the stake after a few losses, because then you will have to use much more time to rebuild the bank than it took to reduce it. Recalculate your stake when the bank has grown significantly (for example every time the bank has increased with 25%). Between these recalculations the stake should remain fixed.
From what I've seen the pros tend to use as little as 1% of their bank as stake, and it's not recommended to use more than 2%. With a bank as small as yours this will be a pretty boring way of betting, but you will learn dicipline and money management from it. If you can double $100 this way, you will be able to do the same with a bank of $10 000.
If I were you I would see this as a training project focused on dicipline and money management. Remember that there is no quick route to profit in betting. More betting banks go bust from poor money management than from the inability to pick winners.
Good luck!
Very wise words. I totally agree.[/list]
If I manage to increase to 200 USD I start to use 100 USD stakes and so on and so fourth, with the idea of using odds of no more than 1.20.
.
You've learnt nothing from your bad experience. this is the worst thing.
If you can't learn to be patient then forget about betting cos you can win for sometime but at the you'll lose 90% of all in seconds. sounds familiar?
Russell_hq
18-01-05, 14:26
what yuvalfra is describing sounds like what I did at Euro 2004. Betting on live games on the exchanges. The principal is to lay lower than u back. so during a game generally the favourites odds rise if they are not scoring and the dog odds drop if they are attacking well. So if you back the fav and they are doing well their odds drop and you can then lay off the bet and secure urself a profit. The odds only need to move a little for you to make a profit if you are using large stakes. But from my own personal experience this did very well at the start then disastar struck.
i think it went like this.
Germany vs. latvia. Back germany and waited for the odds to drop. They didnt. Game ended 0-0 and I lost a few hundred£££. had to lay high
Next
Holland vs. Chez. Repub. Backed holland and they went up 2-0 very quickly so as I had alot on holland I left them for the win (maximum profit) Chez came back to win 3-2 and I lost another wad.
At start of tournament i had holland to win at high odds. i figured that they would qualify and their odds would drop so I could lay off. unfortunatly it came down to the last match. They had to win and sweden vs.denmark could not finish 2-2 for them to go through. Holland won but Sweden vs.Denmark finished 2-2 so they did not go through. lost £50
So finally after all that loss i make the decision to put £500 on England outright to win against portugal. Game drew and portugal went through on penalties, so some consolation :D
what ive learned from that, is its a very risky business if you are playing with alot of your bank. It only takes one tiny thing to go wrong and u lose a stack, and as you are only making small amounts each time you need a very good run(strike rate) to do well.
For example, take the odds 1.01 this suggests that the event has a chance of losing 1 time in 100. but the 1 losing time can happen anywhere in the 100 eg u could lose the first and win the next 99. this is no good if you have just lost alot of your half your bank bank.
So i will stick to senisble money management, 2% flat maybe and try value bets. I will also try following a tipster as I dont have much time to research.
my final word would be. It looks great when the money is rolling in but you have to remember at some point u ARE going to lose and if ur using big %of bank u will lose BIG
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