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KingTSports
13-08-07, 09:56
August 13th, 2007

A rough day for the MLB plays as they got hammered around the yard to the tune of a 3-8 -4.70 unit day. The only good part about the past week is that it's over, and I can move ahead to a week I am hopeful will be better. Last week's totals were down as the plays went 32-41 -5.90. For the season everything is still healthy at 201-203 and 25.35 units to the good.

NFL exhibition plays went well last night hitting both the Seahawks and OVER the total for a 2-0 night. After a 0-3 start, the plays are now at a more respectible 6-6-1 over the opening week. I have two more plays for tonight's NFL action that will close the first week of "it doesn't count" football.

Philadelphia/Baltimore UNDER 31.5
Denver +3

Have the full slate of MLB plays ready to go for Monday. The plays are $7, and you'll receive service until you show a profit. After a bad week, it could be a good time to step in anticipation of a unit total rise.

Minnesota has lost four games in a row again, and Santana will be looked upon to stop the streak. His last outing was solid, and he broke a losing slide....one of the stronger arms in the league at a decent price is a hard play to pass up.

Minnesota Santana -115

GOOD LUCK today...

King T

meser
13-08-07, 11:13
After a brief analysis I see indeed some solid prices on some powerful arms, mainly Cain, Santana and even Oswalt. On the other hand we have too much credit given to a definite fade - Odalis Perez, who's going nowhere as usual. I'll try to go beyond starting pitchers and first impression and maybe come up with some writeups. Time has not been a friend of mine in the last period, though.

GL !

KingTSports
13-08-07, 16:46
Cain is a gas can....I wouldn't bet on him at the moment with your money.

Oswalt is a solid lay today......

best of luck to you today.

T

Adriyanos
13-08-07, 17:00
I have to disagree with you here, Cain isn't at all a gas can , he is just unlucky, maybe the most unlucky pitcher in the Majors right now.

Satyr
13-08-07, 18:32
I second that. Cain is the most hard luck pitcher in baseball right now. Definitely not a gas can.




Seattle definitely jumps out. I think Minnesota knows they're out of contention by now, and I don't see a whole lot of heart in their game, even now with Cuddyer back in the lineup.

Seattle is 5-1 in its last 6 games
Seattle is 18-7 in its last 25 games at home
Seattle is 37-22 at home in 2007.

The Mariners even won last night away with Weaver on the mound which was a bad spot for them, coming back home with Felix on the mound.

Feeling good taking a team on a mission, the better team, far better lineup, against a team that were hoping to tamper with Indians' and Tigers' playoff plans up until recently, only to fall in another bad streak and probably lose all chances for it.

Anyways, just a lean so far, digging a bit deeper now.

Btw, here are some of the SEA hitters' numbers against Santana:

Ichiro 11 for 29 .379
Ibanez 11 for 28 .393
Betancourt 3 for 10 .300
Beltre 4 for 14 .286
Vidro 2 for 6 .333

yves
13-08-07, 18:36
guys can you give me your opinion on this pick please

SF at Pittsburgh , PITTSBURGH

Pittsburgh has to be confident here after sweeping the Giants at AT&T, while outscoring them 26-10 in the process. They handled San Francisco on the road, and they can definitely handle them here at home. The Giants, a terrible road team, will be without Barry Bonds today. That's not good for an offense that scores 4-runs per game (RPG) against lefties and is averaging 3.6-rpg over their last seven games. Paul Maholm starts for Pittsburgh and a win keeps him from becoming the NL's first 15-game loser. He'll be facing Matt Cain who has been quite good this season although the Giants are 5-18 with him starting this season. That record tells you what kind of run support he's getting. San Francisco is just 11-22 this season on the road at -125 to +125 and 3-9 so far in August. We'll fade the Bonds-less Giants here in game one.

thanks

Adriyanos
13-08-07, 19:19
I'll stay away from this game because there are two toothless teams in my opinion, Pittsburgh who hasn't qualified for the playoffs or even had a winning season for 15 years now and Giants who are also not having a heck of a season. Both teams are weak in offensive and that's a fact.


Cain is a good pitcher but doesn't get run support at all and like you said Maholm isn't a good pitcher, but he is trying to pitch well and at home,in his last 5 starts, he has pitched 33 2/3 innings and allowed 31 hits and 12 earned runs . On the other hand, Cain has been more effective on the road, posting a 3.41 ERA.

Note that both teams had flown over 2800 km to get back to Pittsburgh after the Pirates swept the Giants on the weekend.

yves
13-08-07, 19:39
ok thanks a lot for your write up, very interesting as i am learning about base ball!!

Azure
13-08-07, 19:45
Hey guys,
wasn't there some rule regarding totals at doubleheaders!?
I mean kind of "first lowscoring, second highscoring" (or the other way around, I can't remember).
I think, I wrote down sth like that, but just can't find it atm.

Adriyanos
13-08-07, 19:50
I don't think it's a rule, maybe just a general perception of it.

KingTSports
13-08-07, 20:21
Here is my MLB card for tonight....

August 13th, 2007

The only good thing to report about last week is that it’s over. Picks floundered around for most of the week, got in one solid day of winning and then got pounded yesterday. Ran through the numbers for yesterday, found that is was just one of those days….nothing really following statistical norms or patterns. Have grinded some things for the upcoming week, and the first few days should tell the story.

Not withstanding some mental anguish, I have tried to stay focused on the handicapping and not so much the results….. I don’t want to make any drastic changes to the formulas based upon last week’s sample. 404 plays made thus far, and I think norms and patterns should make a return over this week’s sample.

Here are the plays I am making for the Monday action in MLB…

G1 Pittsburgh Maholm -109
*Houston Oswalt +102

Baltimore Guthrie +225
Oakland Gaudin +135
Boston Wakefield (-1.5) +116
Toronto Litsch -121
Minnesota Santana -115

*denotes Daily Top Play

If Pittsburgh wins Game 1 then play Game 2:

San Francisco Lowry -107

GOOD LUCK today

T

KingTSports
13-08-07, 20:29
btw....

While Cain may not be a "true" gas can (as Zito has been this season), the Giants lack of sucess in his starts speaks for itself....

While the Giants are 2-1 in last three starts, they are an ugly 1-6 in last 7 road outings.....and overall the Giants are 5-18 (21.7%) in his starts this season....that is half of the 42% winning percentage the Giants have overall (the same as Pittsburgh).

GL

T

KingTSports
13-08-07, 20:34
failed to mention that the Giants are 2-10 overall in the 12 road starts made by Cain.....anyway you cut it, that stinks.

while some of it could be bad luck, it isn't bad defense as the Giants have allowed just 3 unearned runs with him on the mound all season.

T

Livecappers.com
13-08-07, 20:54
Here is a freebie for Monday -- I hope all is well over here at bettingadvice ... we are on a helluva run and can't wait for American Football season! Best of luck guys --

Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners (MLB) - Aug 13, 2007 10:05 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -115 Minnesota Twins

Play Title: Vernon Croy's MLB Free Play - Free Plays (+2342) 53-26 L79 67%

1 Unit - Take the Twins -115, We are getting great value with Santana on the mound tonight. The Twins have won 6 of their last 7 road games that Santana has started. The Twins need a win big time tonight to end their slump that has seen them lose 6 of their last 7 games. All Free Plays (+2342) 53-26 L79 67%, Have a great Monday! Vernon Croy of www.livecappers.com

more free plays on our free picks page

OSU Beaver
13-08-07, 21:04
Here is a freebie for Monday -- I hope all is well over here at bettingadvice ... we are on a helluva run and can't wait for American Football season! Best of luck guys --

Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners (MLB) - Aug 13, 2007 10:05 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -115 Minnesota Twins

Play Title: Vernon Croy's MLB Free Play - Free Plays (+2342) 53-26 L79 67%

1 Unit - Take the Twins -115, We are getting great value with Santana on the mound tonight. The Twins have won 6 of their last 7 road games that Santana has started. The Twins need a win big time tonight to end their slump that has seen them lose 6 of their last 7 games. All Free Plays (+2342) 53-26 L79 67%, Have a great Monday! Vernon Croy of www.livecappers.com

more free plays on our free picks page

Just looked at your site, bud. You have some of the more reputable handicappers in the business. Has that 9-0-1 run that Mike Davis is on been all on baseball? That's pretty impressive if it is. I can't pick my nose in baseball.

Livecappers.com
13-08-07, 21:05
no, 6-0 in baseball ... 3-0-1 in preseason football

Gurdan
13-08-07, 21:08
I took Toronto Blue Jays today, both moneyline and runline. I am confident they win and keep fighting for wild card place. They hit well against lefties, and Perez is one of the worst lefties. He gave Toronto 4 runs in about an 1 inning last time. I think Blue Jays offense is going to hit him hard today.

Nobody
13-08-07, 22:54
Giants are the most unatractive playing baseball team I saw in months... Their hitters are just useless. Arguably for me San Francisko now is the worst team in MLB. Yes, maybe they get some runs today againt Malholm but Pittsburgh just have to win it... at least the first game.

And BTW Pittsburgh as an underdog after sweeping SF in their own town? You must be kidding me. Pittsburgh over 3.5 runs@1.91 and Pittsburgh RL@3.11 here. Ridicilous odds.

(edited)... took over 3..5 runs and RL with 3.11... Few minutes before the game. Let's see

Nobody
13-08-07, 23:49
Now the other play of the night for me will be.... of course Detroit Tigers... I will not even wait the line-ups... I mean Ordonez should be there, Grandenson and Sheffield should be there. You just can't take away the thing Detroit have. And Durbin is quite a good pitcher, Gaudin is far from his best lately allowing many runs. Detroit ML@1.70 for 6 units and Detroit RL@2.40 for 3 units for me.

yves
13-08-07, 23:59
anyone on red sox tonight?

Nobody
14-08-07, 01:09
Pittsburgh RL@3.11 was a gift but I still can't understand how Pirates scored 3 runs in 2 innings and then had 0 HITS till the end of the match??? Stupid...

Toronto ML@1.81 for 7 units and Toronto RL@2.31 for 3 units.
Jesse Litsch (4-4, 3.64 ERA)
Odalis Perez (6-11, 5.87 ERA)

Litsch is 2-2 with a 2.51 ERA in four road starts this season. Toronto have good batters. KC's Pere allowed 6 runs in 3 innings in his last start and allowed at least 3 runs in his last 7 starts. Toronto should win without any big problems

BTW, if anybody knows the bookie with alternative run lines (like -2.5 not +1.5 for favourites and -1.5 for underdogs) please write it.

Adriyanos
14-08-07, 01:38
As far as I know, Pinnacle offers the alternate run line for favourites (-2,-2.5).
For the runline you requested both on dogs and favourites you can visit www.bookmaker.com . They have a large offer for baseball and other american sports.

KingTSports
14-08-07, 02:12
i think you'll find those kind of wagers at:

www.thegreek.com

T