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Wednesday, August 08, 2007
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MLB
CINCINNATI (HARANG -120) Los Angeles (Billingsley)
The Reds have won three straight. LA is 2-10 their last 12. The Reds are 17-6 with Harang. His WHIP for the year is 1.188. Yes he did have back spasms in his last start, but he is fine. Previous to the injury shortened start, he has five straight quality starts making his numbers over his last six of 2.79 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
Sigh, played the wrong thoughts - stayed away from the right ones. A lot to learn...
Can't get rid of the feeling I missed sth with that chw-match yesterday. With gametime approaching,
it made me uncomfortable that the Indians kept their fav odds. If anyone knows why, let me know, too -
improvement rules! "Learning is like rowing a boat against the stream - if you stop, you drift backwards."
@Reds-Dodgers
Harang is very consistent; Where would the Reds be w/o him!? He will most likely keep on improving his
stats this year as he did since 2003. Since Billingsley is in the starting rotation his better and worse
outings alternate with each other - if he keeps his rhythm, today one of the worse is due. He has received
massive runsupport except in his last game. Could imagine those icecold LA bats to show some signs of
life at last.
I'm leaning towards Cinci but won't touch it.
The reason that makes this a no bet for me is that, as godspicks mentioned, Harang is coming straight
from DL and although I don't think that Cincinnati will let their ace take the mound if he has problems,
it still remains to be seen how he deals with the interruption.
Finally a sweep last night, let's try to stay on track shall we.:smiley_acbe:
I will provide writeups later on, alongside my leans...just plays for now:
Toronto (Halladay) (2.13) 6 units
Angels (Moseley) (1.97) 6 units
Seattle (Hernandez) (1.90) 10 units
Leans:
Padres (Maddux)
Cleveland (Sabathia) -1
Atlanta (Smoltz)
Kansas City +2
Good luck tonight guys.
Cannot find a decent under bet for today, so just gonna take Cleveland ML with C.C. Sabathia, Garland has been terrible in last outings, having a ERA of 10.2, surely he will allow enough runs here today for Cleveland to win ;)
WTF!? Rockies just batted 8 runs out of Rookie Gallardo - in 2 innings,
and he's back on the mound in 3rd and received the next one. Man, this
is insane - what does the coach think? That this builds character??
I don't get it, pitchcount was up through the ceiling, could've taken him
out after 4/5 runs - they would've had some chances left; seems they didn't
even want to try....Bases loaded, two outs, aaaand.....there goes the rush!
Whoever bet over - that sure went quick....
Sometimes it really ain't understandable why coaches take their starting
pitchers out so late when things get bad.
I will update my record tonight...for what it's worth.
Anyways, tonight's card:
Seattle (Hernandez) (1.90) 10 units
I honestly think Guthrie is slowing down and will regress even more after posting fantastic numbers throughout the season. I just don't think he can maintain the highest level of pitching without any bumps on the road.
Even if he doesn't get flamed tonight, I expect a similar kind of game as he had against Boston.
The M's have a deep, versatile lineup, several hitters are pounding the ball, Ichiro (Suzuki is batting .451 (14-for-31) with one homer, five RBIs, seven runs scored and three steals in seven games this season against the Orioles. He's 100-for-263 (.380) lifetime against Baltimore, the highest average versus the Orioles for any player with 150 or more plate appearances since 1957), Ibanez, Guillen, Beltre...
Guthrie (7-3, 2.98 ERA) will have his hands full tonight, and after allowing 9 hits in 5 innings of work in Boston, I think the resurging, playoff hunting, hungry M's could tag him for a similar number.
Felix (7-6, 3.89 ERA) on the other hand is improving after a mediocre period. He still has to beat the Orioles this season, but his team has been quite dominant over Baltimore so I expect him to grab a W here.
The Mariners are only 1 game behind the WC spot. Guthrie already has a win in Seattle this year, retaliation time. Taking the better team, the better pitcher, at almost pk price.
Angels (Moseley) (1.95) 6 units
Getting LA Angels at home at this price is always a bargain. Especially if a pitching matchup is rather a close one, like this one is in my opinion. Jon Lester is the feel good story, the guy beat cancer and I admire him for it, but he still might be a better bet at home than on the road, even though his road woes were minimal since his return, he has seen a rather cold TB lineup and that has to be taken into consideration.
These guys here can hit, and they're hot, if you look at the past few days. They're also determined to beat Boston since they were absolutely torched earlier in the season at Fenway.
Now they can get it all back, and frankly at this price I think we'll have a lot of Boston chasers, which I believe is the wrong path to take in this situation.
Moseley isn't as sharp as Saunders, hence my over lean, but he can still pitch, and same as Lester, I believe he will be a more compelling bet at home, especially at this price.
Toronto (Halladay) (2.11) 6 units
The Yankees may be one of (if not the best) best teams in the majors but they have to hit a wall every once in a while. They were quite close to losing Game 1 of the series but eventually escaped with a narrow W, which is all that matters.
They outplayed Toronto last night as the Rocket got ejected, and I think we have a great chance to fade them here. After all, despite the fact Yanks are a powerhouse they still have a negative return rate and betting on them constantly does not generate profit.
Picking your spots (both tailing and fading them) does. So I picked mine. Halladay at home, after 2 losses, a revamped Blue Jays team (they are still playing better baseball than a month ago).
I won't go into numbers here, check ESPN or Sportsline for that, all that matters to me is that Wang isn't as sharp on the road and the Yanks are overvalued again. Despite being the better team, Toronto should step up here.
Blue Jays/Yanks under 8,5 runs. Both starters are great pitchers, I'm just following a good tipster play from another forum, this guy has amazing record, he has won 18 picks in a row already. Has he got amazing info or something? :D
Blue Jays/Yanks under 8,5 runs. Both starters are great pitchers, I'm just following a good tipster play from another forum, this guy has amazing record, he has won 18 picks in a row already. Has he got amazing info or something? :D
Hello tkt,
If it's not a secret, would you tell me the address of this forum and a name of the tipster mentioned above? This record is simply great and I would love to see his analyses.
PowerPicks
09-08-07, 04:02
Washington (T Redding) @ San Francisco (M Cain) U 9 @ 1.91(Pinnacle)
Redding is 0-5 O/U this season while Cain is 8-13,will take my chances and play the Under total posted for small stake 3/10.
Sorry for posting late,match starts in 20 minutes or so.
BOL if anyone follow.
PowerPicks
09-08-07, 06:58
Washington (T Redding) @ San Francisco (M Cain) U 9 @ 1.91(Pinnacle)
Redding is 0-5 O/U this season while Cain is 8-13,will take my chances and play the Under total posted for small stake 3/10.
Sorry for posting late,match starts in 20 minutes or so.
BOL if anyone follow.
SF 5 Washington 0 Winner.
Blue Jays/Yanks under 8,5 runs. Both starters are great pitchers, I'm just following a good tipster play from another forum, this guy has amazing record, he has won 18 picks in a row already. Has he got amazing info or something? :D
Hello tkt,
If it's not a secret, would you tell me the address of this forum and a name of the tipster mentioned above? This record is simply great and I would love to see his analyses.
well he lost today. wagerline.com forum => baseball => bobbydaveci
I just fell asleep and had yet to pull the trigger :D
but under/overs are too tricky actually too.
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