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Lukasz
03-08-07, 08:16
Lines effective: 8/2/2007 11:06:51 PM - PST
Rotation Number

MLB Baseball - Fri 8/3
Game Run Line Money Line Total Runs More
Fri 8/3 901 New York Mets
O. Hernandez 2.310
11:20 AM 902 Chicago Cubs
C. Zambrano 1.719
Fri 8/3 903 Cincinnati Reds
M. Belisle +1.5 1.602 2.270 OVER 9 2.070
04:05 PM 904 Pittsburgh Pirates
I. Snell -1.5 2.560 1.741 UNDER 9 1.855
Fri 8/3 905 Houston Astros
R. Oswalt -1.5 2.470 1.909 OVER 8.5 1.909
04:05 PM 906 Florida Marlins
D. Willis +1.5 1.637 2.020 UNDER 8.5 2.000
Fri 8/3 907 St Louis Cardinals
K. Wells +1.5 1.476 1.962 OVER 9 1.893
04:05 PM 908 Washington Nationals
T Redding -1.5 2.900 1.962 UNDER 9 2.020
Fri 8/3 909 Colorado Rockies
J. Francis +1.5 1.671 2.460 OVER 8.5 1.962
04:35 PM 910 Atlanta Braves
J. Smoltz -1.5 2.390 1.649 UNDER 8.5 1.943
Fri 8/3 911 Philadelphia Phillies
K. Kendrick +1.5 1.667 2.400 OVER 9 1.885
05:05 PM 912 Milwaukee Brewers
Y. Gallardo -1.5 2.400 1.676 UNDER 9 2.03
Fri 8/3 913 San Francisco Giants
M. Cain +1.5 1.549 2.130 OVER 8 2.100
07:05 PM 914 San Diego Padres
G. Maddux -1.5 2.720 1.826 UNDER 8 1.833
Fri 8/3 915 Arizona D-Backs
D. Davis +1.5 1.637 2.390 OVER 8 1.877
07:40 PM 916 Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Billingsley -1.5 2.470 1.680 UNDER 8 2.040
Fri 8/3 917 Texas Rangers
K. Millwood +1.5 1.862 2.870 OVER 8.5 2.020
04:05 PM 918 Toronto Blue Jays
R. Halladay -1.5 2.060 1.493 UNDER 8.5 1.893
Fri 8/3 919 Kansas City Royals
O. Perez +1.5 2.220 3.360 OVER 10 1.952
04:05 PM 920 New York Yankees
C. Wang -1.5 1.758 1.391 UNDER 10 1.952
Fri 8/3 921 Chicago White Sox
M. Buehrle +1.5 1.595 2.220 OVER 9 1.855
04:05 PM 922 Detroit Tigers
A. Miller -1.5 2.580 1.769 UNDER 9 2.070
Fri 8/3 923 Baltimore Orioles
D. Cabrera +1.5 1.552 2.090 OVER 9 2.01
04:10 PM 924 Tampa Bay Devil Rays
J. Shields -1.5 2.710 1.855 UNDER 9 1.901
Fri 8/3 925 Cleveland Indians
C. Sabathia +1.5 1.613 2.320 OVER 7.5 2.060
05:10 PM 926 Minnesota Twins
JO. Santana -1.5 2.530 1.714 UNDER 7.5 1.862
Fri 8/3 927 LAA Angels
D. Moseley +1.5 1.524 1.990 OVER 9 1.870
07:05 PM 928 Oakland Athletics
L. Dinardo -1.5 2.780 1.935 UNDER 9 2.050
Fri 8/3 929 Boston Red Sox
J. Lester -1.5 2.450 1.901 OVER 9.5 2.020
07:05 PM 930 Seattle Mariners
H. Ramirez +1.5 1.645 2.03 UNDER 9.5 1.893

Lukasz
03-08-07, 08:19
Below you will find estimatied expected values of total number of runs for Major League Baseball games. They stem from starting pitchers, bullpen, batters and outfielders performance modelled statistically as paired comparison experiments with no covariates.

I am posting these to provide you with a point of reference for a further analysis of the total number of runs market. Knowing what lines the statistical analysis of past performance suggests, you could modify the estimations given some additional data (injuries, weather conditions, motivation, umpires etc.) to come up with more accurate prices to compare with the bookmakers offer.

Click here for details. (http://forum.bettingadvice.com/viewtopic.php?t=66801)

Date Hosts Guests Hosts_SP Guests_SP Estimation
03/08/07 Chicago Cubs New York Mets C Zambrano O Hernandez 9.4
03/08/07 Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds I Snell M Belisle 9.01
03/08/07 Florida Marlins Houston Astros D Willis R Oswalt 8.72
03/08/07 Washington Nationals St Louis Cardinals T Redding K Wells 10.28
03/08/07 Atlanta Braves Colorado Rockies J Smoltz J Francis 8.77
03/08/07 Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies Y Gallardo K Kendrick 9.6
03/08/07 San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants G Maddux M Cain 7.96
03/08/07 Los Angeles Dodgers Arizona D-Backs C Billingsley D Davis 8.8
03/08/07 Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers R Halladay K Millwood 10.89
03/08/07 New York Yankees Kansas City Royals C Wang O Perez 10.65
03/08/07 Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox A Miller M Buehrle 9.98
03/08/07 Tampa Bay Devil Rays Baltimore Orioles J Shields D Cabrera 8.77
03/08/07 Minnesota Twins Cleveland Indians JO Santana C Sabathia 7.87
03/08/07 Oakland Athletics LAA Angels L Dinardo D Moseley 9.49
03/08/07 Seattle Mariners Boston Red Sox H Ramirez J Lester 9.96

Franky"four fingers
03-08-07, 19:37
San Diego Padres-San Francisco Giants
pick:Padres @1.73 bwin

Matt Cain gets killed nearly every time he takes the mound for San Francisco. His 3-12 record is one of the worst in the big leagues. The Giants inability to produce runs will be his downfall again tonight. Greg Maddux has picked up his play in his last 3 starts with just a 2.65 ERA in 17 innings of work. The Giants have scored a total of 7 runs in their last 4 games against the Padres. This kind of run total just won t get it done today. The Giants are 0-9 in Cain's last 9 starts as an underdog. The Giants are 0-8 in Cain's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Padres are 5-2 in Maddux's last 7 starts as a home favorite.

Los Angeles Dodgers- Arizona Diamondbacks
pick:Dodgers @ 1.65 bwin

The surging Diamondbacks have won ten of their last 12 games, but haven't been successful against the LA Dodgers. Los Angeles has won five of the last 6 meetings and eight of the last 10 at Dodger Stadium.
Arizona’s Doug Davis is 2-1 in three career starts against Los Angeles, but the Diamondbacks are just 3-8 in his last 11 starts away from home. Los Angeles’ Chad Billingsley is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in five career outings, including three starts against Arizona. The Dodgers are 7-2 in Billingsley's last 9 starts.
Los Angeles is a dreadful 2-5 in their last 7 home games, but have dominated Arizona at home.The Dodgers have won nine of the last 12 versus the Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium and is 6-2 in Billingsley's last 8 starts at home.

Satyr
03-08-07, 23:46
Franky don't feel offended, your writeups are solid and all, but I had to react on this.

Matt Cain gets killed every time? This is the most hard luck pitcher in baseball in years. Matt Cain was supposed to be Giants' ace in front of this season (yes, even in front of Zito, Lowry and Morris, who would have thought Lincecum would step up like this), he only recently raised his ERA above 4.00, before that he was a solid 3.50 ERA pitcher, solid WHIP as well, all fundamentals were solid.

All except the W/L column. He is 3-12 and God knows what the team is with him on the mound. But that's definitely not because he's a bad pitcher, after all his numbers speak for themselves.


I'll have three plays tonight, and I won't provide any writeups this time, I think I can afford it after writing so much throughout the year, judging by my recent (40 days) form you should be better off fading me than tailing.


GL whatever you choose.


The plays

Angels (Moseley) (1.98 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
Seattle - Boston over 9.5 (2.04 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
Seattle (Alt runline) (2.91 @ Pinnacle) 3 units

ledi
04-08-07, 03:29
San Diego Padres-San Francisco Giants
pick:Padres @1.73 bwin

Matt Cain gets killed nearly every time he takes the mound for San Francisco. His 3-12 record is one of the worst in the big leagues. The Giants inability to produce runs will be his downfall again tonight. Greg Maddux has picked up his play in his last 3 starts with just a 2.65 ERA in 17 innings of work. The Giants have scored a total of 7 runs in their last 4 games against the Padres. This kind of run total just won t get it done today. The Giants are 0-9 in Cain's last 9 starts as an underdog. The Giants are 0-8 in Cain's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Padres are 5-2 in Maddux's last 7 starts as a home favorite.


Sorry for my englisch,the Analyse is stolen from Procappers/Propicks...

Satyr
04-08-07, 14:31
In that case Franky don't do it any more or you will be banned.