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Satyr
23-06-07, 15:24
Decided to update my record. Cried a bit while doing it.

Yesterday looked like it should be a solid day, cashed in the Nationals and Padres were up 1:0, putting runners on with ease before Matsuzaka stepped up.

It was a profit day nevertheless. Anyways, my MLB record is totally shitty right now, interleague killed me. Last year I did quite well in the IL, but this year was a killer. There are tons of quality cappers out there, don't take my picks guys, at least not without a grain of salt to go with it. I'll improve within the next few seasons, perhaps even this year, but all in all it's been a horrid, nightmare run.

YTD
98 W-8 V-101 L -16.32 units


The Nationals offer solid value again. I faded Carmona last night, how can I not fade Paul Byrd? This guy has had a great start into the season, but totally lost control since. He is 0-2 with a 9.60 ERA in his last three, with .413 BAA.
Chico was killed by Tiger bats last time out but was actually quite solid before that, playing at home against a Cleveland team that aren't blazing guns at the moment should be a solid spot for him, despite the fact this is another tough AL lineup he has to face. I don't expect him to shut them out, but a 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER kind of game isn't out of the question, which would mean the Nats should be in the game for the last couple of innings, I'll take that shot.
I just can't skip this price.

Nationals (2.52 @ Pinnacle) 4 units




I'm not a big lover of the road chalk, especially this big, but I have to go with this one. Justin Verlander is just lights out this year. To add to that, his team has been stepping up for him. Like his start against Philly, he was on the verge of posting a loss there, but the bats stepped up and won the game for him.
Atlanta Braves are not a team to trust right now. Not only are they in a huge slump, going scoreless for 28 innings.
I don't think Verlander will totally shut them out, but their chemistry is at a season low level, they're missing Chipper Jones from the lineup again, they have their main guys hitting around .200, and they just can't find consistency in the offense. I expect them to score a couple of runs but the way these Tigers are playing, I would think they get it done again. Verlander (8-2, 2.90 ERA), has won all six of his career interleague starts while posting a 2.11 ERA. In three starts against the NL this season, he owns a 1.96 ERA. Atlanta will give the ball to Kevin Davies (3-6, 5.65). He lost his third straight outing on Sunday, allowing five runs -- three earned -- in 5 1-3 innings of a 5-2 defeat in Cleveland.

Davies has allowed five runs in each of his outings during his losing streak and a total of 29 in 23 innings in his last five defeats. He has never faced the Tigers, but is 2-3 with a 7.39 ERA in six career interleague starts.
Magglio Ordonez left the game last night but it was only as a precaution, he is expected to play tonight.

Tigers (1.63 @ Pinnacle) 6 units




Baltimore are as streaky as they get. These guys just broke out from a 9 game losing streak and are now on the verge of winning their 4th straight game. And they will give the ball to Brian Burres (3-2, 2.94 ERA), who has faced some of quite strong AL lineups (LAA, SEA, CLE, BOS, TOR...) and he only allowed more than 2 runs ONCE, against Cleveland.
His outings vary in length, but the O's pen has improved slightly over the last couple of games and Arizona might be up for a short slump. Last night they failed to step up for their ace, now they'll send out Livan Hernandez (5-5, 4.50 ERA), who is 0-3, 7.43 ERA this month.
I have to take the plus money here.

Orioles (2.24 @ Pinnacle) 6 units


Good luck tonight guys.

marco_bet
23-06-07, 15:46
don't worry, Stary...
last two weeks have been horrible for me as well, and for most of the fellow bases cappers, I'd say...

nice doggies you got there, Nats have been pure money this season, I personally have a rule NEVER to bet on O's, (plus Tejada injured) but Tigers are a no-brainer today, you'll cash in... GL!

I'll post a few totals with a write-up soon...

marco_bet
23-06-07, 16:54
1. LA Dodgers at Tampa Bay - OVER 9,5

two OVER teams with starting pitchers with 1.88 WHIP L3, both of them home/away WHIP over 1.50, OBP .347 and .366, with lineups hitting lefties .307 and .273 L10, after 23 hits yesterday and over Ump today, even the stats show this should go over the total today with ease. I don't expect Wolf nor Kazmir would last long in the game, and there's always DRays pen to push it over... On the other hand, no Dukes nor Upton in Tampa's lineup today plus I'm a bit afraid of the trends with Kazmir's night starts opposed to his day starts, a lot of unders, but not today, not with Dodgers hitting, hopefully.
Lean on Dodgers btw

2. Houston at Texas - OVER 10,5

Oswalt road ERA 5.92, OBP .367 and 1.68 WHIP, and if that is not enough, his day stats are almost twice as worse then night starts - .403 OBP and 1.91 WHIP!!!
About Jamey Wright I dont want to rely on this years stats, cant judge on only two starts (awful starts that is), I just don't think he's fit enough coming of the DL yet... Houston batting .339 L10 vs righties, Texas .271. Ump is allright, I guess...

Good luck to all, feel free to comment, I'm not as confident on the plays as yesterday when I played 2 units, today medium stakes I guess...

Satyr
23-06-07, 17:05
don't worry, Stary...
last two weeks have been horrible for me as well, and for most of the fellow bases cappers, I'd say...

nice doggies you got there, Nats have been pure money this season, I personally have a rule NEVER to bet on O's, (plus Tejada injured) but Tigers are a no-brainer today, you'll cash in... GL!

I'll post a few totals with a write-up soon...

Thanks Marco. :) GL tonight. Looking forward to see what you've got on your card.


Btw, I'm aware they're without Tejada but I'm still counting on them to keep hitting, I remember their streak last month, Tejada wasn't that much of a factor for 3 or 4 games back then, they were mostly relying on Roberts, Mora and Markakis. I hope tonight will be the case as well.


GL.

papa.leon
23-06-07, 18:37
Philadelphia Phillies/St Louis Cardinals
MLB. I'm not a superstar in baseball betting, but this one looks to me very good. Both starting pitchers allows runs, runs, runs... and their stats tells me about this. Eaton (5,33 ERA) can't finish innings quickly, so the hitters have a plenty of opportunities hit the ball and run.
Wainwright record speaks about overs also (4,70 ERA).
St.Louis finished the last game without a run, while Philly has only two scoring innings in a 6-0 win (there were 20 hits in the game, 11-9 to Philly).

Pick: Over 5 (1st half)
Odds: 1,87
This and more on http://papaleonya.blogspot.com/

Giota
23-06-07, 18:50
I had a nice day yesterday, posting a 7-1 record. Lets keep it rolling.


Cubs RL ( Hill ) @2.53 3/10

I will never bet anymore the White Sox this season. I do like the Cubs and the way they play. Hill (5-5, 3.22 ERA) had his worst outing this season and let him do this today against the White Sox with only 3 hits in the last game. Vazquez ( 3-5, 4.39 ERA) is not good and he is not weak. We have the Cubs with a solid offence. Soriano and Ramirez are dangerous and Lee is hitting Vazquez very good. It will be hard for the White Sox to take this. They have a chance of course. I also think that the winner will have a 2 run plus lead and thats why i take runline here with low stakes.

Wanted to post this one because it starts soon.

Later more..

Giota
23-06-07, 19:27
Some more games ...

Braves under 4 runs @ 1.86 5/10

Verlander has been very good, especially in the interleague. He has won all six of his career interleague starts while posting a 2.11 ERA. In three starts against the NL this season, he owns a 1.96 ERA. We also have to take a look at Atlanta. The offence is struggling. The past games were terrible for them.They had no run in the last three games ( Boston, Boston and Detroit). Enough reasons for me.


Giants under 3,5 runs @ 1.92 4/10

Another team total under for me. Wang won all his starts this month posting a 2.08 ERA. Over all he is 7-4 with a 3.33 ERA. Thats nice. The Giants have a 8 game losing streak. They are not hitting well and Bonds will have his problems against Wang. The starting pitcher of the Yankees doesnt allow many homeruns. I dont think that the Giants can turn it around today.


Reds @ Mariners over 9,5 runs @ 2.05 5/10

Both pitchers had bad outings and both of them are not solid. Lohse ( 3-9, 4.56 ) allowed in only 4 innings 5 runs and Washburn (5-6, 4.38 ERA) wanted to beat Lohse, allowing in 3 innings 6 runs. Both can be better but we have to keep an eye on the strong offence from the Reds lately. Seattle has his problems right now but Lohse could help them today. Love the price here.


Athletics @ Mets under 8,5 @ 1.88 4/10

Both teams have a lot of injurys. Some could be back, but anyway, i dont count it that high. Blanton (7-4, 3.43 ERA) has been excellent this month.
He posted a 1.44 ERA and .195 opponent batting average in four June starts while pitching at least seven innings in each outing.
In his last outing he threw 76 strikes with 106 pitches overall. Thats amazing. On the other side we have Hernandez ( 3-3, 3.08 ERA) on the mound. Yes, he was bad in his last start but he is a good one. It will be a good day for him against the offence of the Athletics from Oakland.


GL everyone.

Livecappers.com
23-06-07, 20:12
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants (MLB) - Jun 23, 2007 3:55 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 1.5/-102
San Francisco Giants

Play Title: Vernon Croy's Saturday Afternoon MLB Free Play
1 Unit - San Francisco +1.5 -102, We are getting great value here today wih
the struggling Giants who have Morris on the mound with his 2.32 ERA at home
this season. This is the Yankees 5th road game in a row and this pick falls
into one of my MLB systems. The Yankees are just 3-7 this season as a road
favorite of -150 to -175 and the Yankees are just 1-3 when Wang has pitched in
a day game this season. All Free Plays (+1736) 26-8 L34 76% Have a great
Saturday! by: Vernon Croy of LC

Cuore
23-06-07, 21:55
I think i'll take Detroit and Houston in a combo with 2 or 3 units. I'm sorry, but there is no time for any explanations. Both of my picks are starting with much better pitchers and that's why i believe they will win. I'll come back with explanations for the night's picks...

Giota
24-06-07, 14:08
I dont have time and games are starting early today.

I will be back later ( 2:05 PM ET games ) with more predictions.

Dodgers ML 4/10
Minnesota RL 4/10
Cubs ML 4/10

sry ... later on

edit: wrong topic :o

Satyr
24-06-07, 16:19
when will this stop? Baltimore up 4:0...loss.

Washington up 3:1 in the 9th - loss.

Jesus Christ. All I was asking for was a split. :oops: