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21-06-07, 07:21
This is the reason the Yankees spent the big money on Roger Clemens. They need a big effort as they have lost two in a row at Colorado. However, they face Rodrigo Lopez who sports a very nice 2.90 era. Let's take a closer look at that 2.90 era. He has 7 starts and in those 7 starts he has faced: the Dodgers (twice), Arizona, Stl, Cincy, Bal, and TB. That is not exactly the cream of the crop. He faces a much tougher lineup today with their inspirational leader on the mound as they try to avoid a sweep. With that said -- I will take the Yankees on get away day. I will lay the 1.5 runs and play this one for 2 units. (-114 at pinnacle sports)
by: Mike Davis of LC
I've been laying low in the past few days, my confidence reached it's all time low (no wonder huh), and I know for a fact you can't hit winners when you have mental brakes, and aren't feeling confident enough.
I went 5-2 (small plays and leans) yesterday, hopefully this could overturn the situation a bit, I cleared my head from all the losing, and I'm ready to start over. Anyways, these are just leans, only the first one is a play (3 units).
OK I love the over in Texas.
First of, if I'm still on Earth, Arlington is still a hitters' friendly park.
Padilla sucks. Again: 9 million? Give me the bat I'll hit his pitch.
Lilly on the road: sucks.
Cubs are hitting, Rangers hitting, no serious slumps recorded.
Sosa vs his former team, maybe fireworks time?
Barret (C) was traded to SD, not sure if this directly influences the game, but I'm thinking it could.
Over ump.
wind blowing in from right field @ 8 mph.
Over 11 (2.37 @ Pinnacle) 3 units
LEANS:
I also like the Jays at the moment, Billingsley hasn't pitched more than 3 innings in a game this year, Marcum has been winning games, -1 is my call, a lot of the games featuring Marcum ended up Jays by one. I want my money back in that case.
Pirates @ 2.90!
Definite value. I love my Mariners but these guys aren't hitting right now, forget last night's game, they cooled off a bit after that amazing streak. Maholm is a gas can, but Van Beschoten isn't getting enough respect here, definitely.
King Felix is battling post injury rust, he's not himself, too many hits, too many walks...this guy is prone to letting in runs right now. 2.90 is too much.
My initial lean was Colorado at 2.75 which I thought (and think) is an outrageous price, and I see a true war on various message boards when this game is concerned. Some guys saying how Yankee backers (tonight's Yankee backers) are head cases, gambling addicts, etc...
I'm aware a lot of the guys will chase tonight. And I know Lopez was rocked by the Yanks, but they don't own him THAT much. Also, Clemens is FAR from unhittable, especially since he only had two home starts, how about some Colorado sun now for ye ol' Rocket?
He could keep these bats in check but who says the Yanks HAVE to break out of their slump (2 runs in 18 innings) against Lopez?
I'll take the confident team at home against an old legend here. At this price, definitely. Considering small stakes on Rockies or no play.
12W - 17L - 19,94 profit
Last night:
won: Royals @ Cardinals over 9,5 runs
lost: San Diego RL
draw: Marlins @ White Sox under 9 runs ( very unlucky )
New day, new hope.
Cubs ML ( Lilly ) @ 1.83 5/10
Cubs @ Rangers under 10,5 runs @ 1.82 5/10
The Cubs have the better team and the better pitcher in todays game against the Rangers. Lilly (5-4, 3.59 ERA) is a guy i like. He has been outstanding in his last outing and he plays a solid season. On the road he had some trouble but i dont count it that high. The Cubs can hit a lot and against Padilla (3-8, 6.57 ERA) they have the chance for runs. Padilla has been weak till now and in his career he wasnt better against the Cubs than today. The Texas lineup can hit of course but Lilly seems to be in a good shape. I also like the under bet here, specially because of Lilly. We also dont have to forget the strong defence of the Cubs.
Because the game is starting soon i have to submit that prediction.
Later more...
Update: No pics anymore for me. Toronto`s game is very close. No value for the Yankees. I also dont like the other games.
GL tonight.
i have a question for you guys,
San Diego Padres - Baltimore Orioles on unibet odds are 1,85 - 1,95
baltimore in the last 10 games has won 1 and lost 10 !!
san diego is 5-5
san diego is 21-13 at home, baltimore is 14-22 on the road
why are san diego odds so high???
thanks for the explanation because i really cant see why
i have a question for you guys,
San Diego Padres - Baltimore Orioles on unibet odds are 1,85 - 1,95
baltimore in the last 10 games has won 1 and lost 10 !!
san diego is 5-5
san diego is 21-13 at home, baltimore is 14-22 on the road
why are san diego odds so high???
thanks for the explanation because i really cant see why
Because that one win of Baltimore is a 7-1 victory against the same San Diego, no longer than yesterday.
Because Baltimore have an extremly solid starter (Bedard, leader in strikeouts in AL), while the Padres have a veteran lefty (Doug Wells) who is way past his peak years.
Because PETCO Park is a pitcher friendly field, so scores tend to be closer.
Because ...
In fact, I really lean towards another O's good game. I'll consider more the 5 inning option.
GL !
Predictions: 1-3 -10 units
Again a bad night...Mets and Kzc..made my night a very bad one.
Tonight i don't really like any of the matches. I won't play anything...but...i will post a prediction on the single game that i like:
Yankees-Colorado under 10.5
We have here 2 good pitchers...Clemens (3.6 Era) for yankees and Lopez (2.9 Era) for Colorado. They've made good games till now...allowing 3 or less runs each time. I believe there will be another low scoring game, especially since the line is at 10.5. Lopez has a bad Era against yankees...but i don't think he'll allow to many runs. So...altough they both hit well...there will be an under 10 match.
adding: Colorado ML (2.70) 2 units
writeup in upper post.
Looks like adjusting the line to 11 will cost me the winner, since moneyback is far more realistic option right now, even though it looked quite well.
Onto the late games:
I like the Jays here, the reason is simple, these guys are hot right now, and I expect them to improve their record even more in the next period. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are a rather poor interleague team, and Chad Billingsley hasn't pitched for more than 3 innings in a game all season. His numbers so far indicate that he has done a remarkable job in relief, and he is definitely one of the top prospects of the NL. However, this is an AL park, and the Jays are looking to straight their sub .500 record and get back to the winning side.
Their potential is immense, they have a lot of big bats and a very good mix in the lineup, and I think they'll keep feasting off the Dodgers, a process they started last night with Halladay on the mound.
Marcum is no Doc, but he's a very solid pitcher, and the team likes him, they're scoring for him, and the Jays are hot at the moment, I don't think Billingsley will last much more than 5 innings. Will that be enough for the Dodger blue? I doubt it.
3 units Toronto -1 (2.11)
Great point Satyr there and you're right about Billingsley having a short outing , there are rumours that he will be on a pitch count, meaning that he will last only 4 or 5 innings, then the tired bullpen will come in and hot batters from the Blue Jays should hit. Not wanting to jinx, but everytime I posted here the match was a loser, so I hope the bad period ends and I should get some winners. Good Luck!
tricky2000
22-06-07, 02:27
Satyr. You are back on track. Congrats. :D
Satyr. You are back on track. Congrats. :D
No reason for any congrats, I´m so sorry for him to see his luck isn´t even back on track... :(
The over11 in Texas was exatly 11 and Toronto lost.
I´m looking forward, as many others too, I think, to congrate him really to be back on winning-track, I´m sure this time will come again...
Unfortunately, NBA4ever is right. I am not back on track. I maybe did cap well, had the over in Texas, Baltimore, Colorado, Toronto (didn't post Baltimore since I thought it was a late game and it started when I wanted to post it), but Texas and Cubs couldn't score after being tied at 5 in the 5th (I think), and Casey Janssen (0.95 ERA) blew the game allowing 6 ER in the 8th, striking out ZERO batters.
So hitting winners consistently is still something I didn't get back to.
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