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[fin]juuso
12-06-07, 18:15
MLB YTD: 102 bets - 51W-47L-4P +63.20 units. ROI = 114.17%
Average stake per bet 4.37 units. Average odds 2.19

I posted these couple of hours ago on the mainpage. Seems like the forum was down. Odds have dropped just slightly, but not enough to really make a difference and i will be counting these as they are posted on the mainpage tips. Good luck today with your bets guys!


Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Yankees

D-backs 2.68 (Pinnacle) 4 units

Battle of 2 premium sinkerballers Brandon Webb vs. Chieng-Ming Wang. Both are very effective groundball pitchers, but Webb is a bit better in about every category. He is more consistent, he lasts deeper into games and gives up a bit less runs. His consistency and durability makes him one of the best pitchers in the game today. No wonder he won the NL CY Young Award last year, pitching for a relatively small market team that didn't make it to playoffs.

Yankees of course have quite clear lineup advantage and Wang is likely throw a good game as well, but Arizona lineup is decent and they can hit. Webb limiting the Yanks to 1-2 runs for 7-8 innings, or something close to that is always a very real possibility, even here at the Yankee stadium. Webb has been tough to hitters lately, having not allowed an earned run over his last 2 starts (15 innings pitched) and only 2 ER over last 3 starts (22 innings pitched). Arizona also has a small bullpen advantage.

Yankees could of course hit Webb, no doubt, as they have a very formidable lineup and they should of course be favored here slightly, but not by this much. Many people will of course say the Yankees are hot right now, but winning streaks are overrated and they are badly overpriced. Line opened at D-backs 2.37, but now when it's moved this much, there's some very nice value on them with Webb pitching IMO.



St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals

Royals 2.06 (Pinnacle) 5 units

Very nice value here, correct price should be around 1.80 range at most IMO. Kansas is of course a team with currently the worst record in the majors ,and like in previous seasons, they have had some prolonged losing streaks time to time, but they are likely to improve their record for the rest of the season and should occasionally be quite compelling bet at home when they have good starter going.

A big part of their poor success has to do with poor pitching overall and being in the best division in all baseball, AL-Central and having to meet strong teams often. Surprisingly, they have worse record at home so far, but that is likely to change as Kansas at home was overall winning bet last season and will probably be so this for the rest of this season as well, as they have always performed a lot better at home. They have also played well in interleague, having winning Interleague record for the past 3 seasons. They have won both Interleague series this season and just crushed Phillies in last game and took 2 out of 3 vs. them.

What makes me like this bet and give Kansas clear edge, is their starter Brian Bannister. He is one of the better young arms around that not many regular baseball fans or bettors have heard of or know much about. He has a 3.33 ERA for now and he has been throwing some superb stuff lately. He shut down the Indians at the Jake for 7 innings last time out and before that held Rays to 1 ER over 8 innings at Tropicana. Highly impressive outings. He won't be this cheap for long if he keeps going even close to this, which he is likely to do.

Cardinals starter Brad Thompson is a reliever converted to starter. He has been OK, but very hittable and quite mediocre with a 4.55 ERA. Cardinals have the bullpen advantage, but their hitting just have been quite unspectacular this season. Pujols is always very dangerous, but they just haven't been nearly as good as in the past seasons, struggling to be competitive in that weak division of NL-Central. I like Bannisters chances to contain them and Kansas quite a bit here at above even odds.

godspicks
12-06-07, 19:31
Tuesday, June 12, 2007


MLB
COLORADO (COOK +165) Boston (Wakefield)

This is certainly a battle of two pitchers who have both been much better on the road than at home. Cook has a 2.98 road ERA and has not given up a road unearned run. Wakefield has a 6.49 home ERA. Boston has now lost 4-of-5 starts of the poster child for streaky. His ERA is 7.97 in those five starts.

Wintzi
12-06-07, 20:19
i'm a bit confused... for the game between oakland and houston, around 70% of the public bets are on the a's as a huge underdog... if they win, the books will loose some money

Giota
12-06-07, 20:27
I am starting to bet here now and hopefully good.

Washington over 3,5 4/10 @ 1.85

As i am picking Washington over 3,5 runs i dont have to talk about their pitching. So lets start with the pitcher from Baltimore, Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera is 5-6, 4.70 this season. He had up and downs and he never won two straight games ( he won the last one ) . He also has his problems with the Interleague matches going 1-6 there 1-7 with a 6.35 ERA in 10 interleague starts, including a 9-5 loss June 25 against Washington. Cabrera gave up six runs, five hits and five walks in 4 innings. Young is hitting well against him and also the other batters of Washington are improving lately. This price is nice and i go for it with low-mid stakes.




Pick : Oakland @ Houston first 5 innings under 4 runs
Stake: 6/10

Two teams, two different storys. Oakland is on a huge run winning 10 of the last 13 and Houston lost 6 of the last 10. Oakland`s pitching has been very great. Athletics' starters have not allowed more than two earned runs in an outing over those 13 games -- the longest such stretch for the team since April 1978 -- and are 7-2 with a 1.20 ERA over that span. Oswalt gets the start for the Astros. He is pitching well, specially in his last games, but he dont gets run support and thats the biggest problem of Houston - they dont get a lot of runs. We saw it yesterday again, where they lost 2:1 against the Cubs. Here we have now a under 4 runs in the first 5 innings, good pitchers and Houston`s bullpen in a bad form - with a nice price. I think that both will not score more than two runs in these first innings.

OAK: Kennedy (2-4, 3.23)
HOU: Oswalt (6-4, 3.38)

Leans : Angels -1,5, SF and Detroit -1,5

Thats it from me. GL to all.

Satyr
12-06-07, 20:38
Ok, finalized the card. I'll update my record later on. A lot of plays for tonight for me.

Tigers (Verlander) (-1,5) (2.25 @ Pinnacle) 6 units

Detroit are hitting again and they're send out one of their most consistent pitchers in Justin Verlander (6-2, 3.12 ERA), who is 5-1 in last 6 starts and bounced back nicely following his worst start of the year and the only sub par one, at the Jake, when he allowed 7 ER in 5 innings. In his last start Verlander gave up 5 hits in 7 innings of work, while the Tigers beat Texas 10-0.

The Brewers have slowed down following a great start into the season, and are only 9-18 since May 12. The Brewers were already criticized before for being an average team in a sub par division, and are now showing signs of it. The Tigers, on the other hand, have won six of eight, and have scored a major league-best 374 runs. The Tigers are 5-1 in interleague play.

They have Ordonez and Guillen listed as probable, I expect both to play. Jeff Suppan (7-6, 3.92 ERA) wasn't that bad this season but Verlander is something else (3-1, 3.82 ERA at home this year). Suppan got shelled last time out against the Cubs. He is 3-4, 4.17 ERA on the road in 2007.
Detroit pen definitely isn't trustable but Tigers offense has been producing and I can't neglect that fact.

Love the plus money at the RL.



Athletics (Kennedy) (2.53 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
Under 7.5 (2.00 @ Pinnacle) 3 units


Can't see passed the A's in June value here. The Astros are a clueless team and even though Oswalt (6-4, 3.38 ERA) will get the nod, and he is 4-1 at home this year (1.74 ERA), the Astros bats are just cold at the moment. The A's on the other hand, are starting to peak and they're winning games in all possible ways. It's very hard to beat them right now and even though they don't have many power hitters in the lineup, they have superior pitching and defense when these two teams are concerned and easily get the edge in all other factors except for starting pitching tonight.
However, Joe Kennedy (2-4, 3.23 ERA) has been very good this year, even though he lacked getting the adequate run support from the team, which is slowly changing.
Kennedy has pitched twice over the last 13 games, allowing one run in eight innings of Oakland's 10-inning, 3-2 loss to Minnesota on June 1 and two runs in seven innings of Wednesday's 3-2 win over Boston. The victory was the first since May 10 for Kennedy, who has allowed three or fewer runs in all but one of his 11 starts this season, but has often been plagued by a lack of run support.
The A's are just too good right now and Astros' pen is shaky, their offense isn't stepping up, and frankly I don't see where their edge could be tonight.
Also putting some on the under is a good idea, minus the Astros' pen, pitching tonight will be filthy and neither of the two teams are known for top notch offense.


Nationals (Bowie) (2.64 @ Pinnacle) 3 units

Micah Bowie (2-2, 3.79 ERA) has been quite solid in his last couple outings for the Nats, and Baltimore are definitely overrated here. They're a streaky team, they're either winning, you better stay clear when they do, or they can't hit a house.
Right now, it's the no hit mode which is turned "on".
I don't see how Daniel Cabrera (5-6, 4.70 ERA) is a guarantee of such price, these two teams are actually rather close in terms of overall record and what they're showing this year. The Nats are playing without any pressure, and the O's are a disastrous 3-7 in last 10.
In going 2-0 over four starts, Bowie has posted a 3.86 ERA and limited opponents to a .200 batting average. Washington won all four of those starts, including a 6-5 victory over Pittsburgh on Wednesday as Cristian Guzman scored the winning run on a wild pitch in the bottom of the ninth.

Cabrera, on the other hand, is 1-7 with a 6.35 ERA in 10 interleague starts, including a 9-5 loss June 25 against Washington. Cabrera gave up six runs, five hits and five walks in 4 2-3 innings. His 41 walks lead the AL.
Enough to warrant a play on such price if you ask me.



Angels (Escobar) (-1) (1.82 @ Pinnacle) 6 units


The Halos are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, and Kelvim Escobar (7-3, 2.76 ERA) isn't that hittable. His poor start is usually followed by at least a couple quality ones. And he already got shelled two games ago, I don't think he'll allow too many tonight, despite the fact Cincinnati have some big bats in their lineup.
The Angels are still the better team here, and Bronson Arroyo (2-7, 5.01 ERA) has been on my fade list for a while now. I'm aware he has more quality than 2-7 but this year he's not doing it for this team, and they're not scoring for him.
The Angels should have both Anderson and Kotchman in the lineup tonight.


Texas - Pittsburgh over 9.5 (2.06 @ Pinnacle) 5 units

writeup later on, don't have time now, gotta rush out. Many total guys already explained this one more than I will anyway.

that's it for me for tonight. GL.

RedSoxFan
12-06-07, 20:38
Hey, got 2 of 2 yesterday and today's card is looking very good to me, let's see how profitable it will turn out to be.

Have a lot of bets, hope I will cash in at least 4-5.

*I will post the current odds, but I took my bets at higher/lower prices.

I completely agree with juuso about Diamondbacks @ NY Yankees.Two good pitchers going against each other, someone is bound to lose, neither will give it up easily.I think it's more like a 50/50 game so we have immense value on Arizona.I think this game will be decided by few runs.Webb and Wang are too solid for this big line.Odds on under are going down.Yankees can hit, but they will find it hard scoring many runs against Webb.NY are on a 6 game winning streak.It's not wise to bet against winning streaks, but I think the chances are bigger than the odds suggest.

I like Brewers @ Tigers game real much.I think we might see a lot of runs here, despite two solid starters.Both teams have weal bullpens and Detroit can hit real much.They make a lot of overs, so I think there's some value in over.Brewers can hit and allow many runs either.Suppan is a great pitcher, but he has a bit high ERA and I don't think he will manage to cool down tigers' hot bats.

Rangers @ Pirates is another game I expect to go over.Two weak pitchers with high ERA starting, both teams can allow and score a lot, and both teams have participated in many high-scoring games.I think this over is one of the best bet of the night.No need of much analysis here.

Cleveland @ Florida - my best bet for tonight.I think more than 70% chance of cashing in.Carmona on the mound for Cleveland and that means trouble to the opponent's bats - whoever they are.Cleveland are losing their pace.They couldn't hit a lot in their last few games, but I think now is the time to get back on track.Indians' bats shouldn't find much problems in scoring against Olsen - they can pound him easily.Florida is just an average team and with an average starter I don't believe they can cause much problems to Cleveland.

San Diego @ Tampa Bay is a game in which I don't expect a lot of runs.Two solid pitchers - Maddux for Padres and Kazmir for Devil Rays.I can go either way - Tampa Bay's bats are hot, San Diego's bullpen is the best in the league and their pitching is phenomenal.Padres got swept by Mariners so they'll be looking for a win here desperately.They key here is in not allowing many runs.If Maddux can hold the Rays' bats till the 6th-7th innings and San Diego get good advantage at that time I think their bullpen won't find much problems in keeping the lead.But I'm not sure if the game is going to develop the way I think, so only under for me here.Line is a bit big in my opinion.

I backed Halos and Blue Jays either.Angels are going against a weak team with one of their best starters - Kelvim Escobar.Cincinnati really shouldn't be much of a problem for LA's mighty offence and solid pitching.
SF simply can't hit.Yesterday they hardly won 3:4, I don't think they will win today against A.J.Burnett.

That's it.Short writeups but I see no scence in posting info and stats from sites like espn, cbs sportsline, covers , etc.Everyone can check it by himself.


So my bets are:
Dbacks @ Yankees - Under 9 @ 1.667 Pinnacle 6 units ; Arizona @ 2.61 Pinnacle 2 units
Brewers @ Tigers - Over 9 @ 2.02 Pinnalce 5 units
Rangers @ Pirates - Over 9 @ 1.826 Pinnacle 6 units
Indians @ Mariners - Cleveland @ 1.730 Pinnacle 7 units
Padres @ Devil Rays - Under 9 @ 1.787 Pinnacle 6 units
Angels @ Reds - Anels @ 1.671 Pinnacle 7 units
Blue Jays @ Giants - Blue Jays @ 1.885 Pinnacle 4 units

Good luck guys!

[fin]juuso
12-06-07, 20:40
i'm a bit confused... for the game between oakland and houston, around 70% of the public bets are on the a's as a huge underdog... if they win, the books will loose some money


1 gane means nothing for the books and it's a positive expectation calculated risk for them. They will always have that small margin in their favor and no matter what consensus sites say, those percentages are not very exact and they don't show how the money bet is spread between games. there's surely some big bets on Houston as well.

Oswalt is an Elite pitcher and a monster at home and no matter how bad the Astros have looked, they are better against left handed pitching and Oswalt always has a real chance to go deep by giving up minimal amount of runs. I think the line is pretty much correct at the moment.

Satyr
12-06-07, 20:43
adding:

Mariners (Washburn) (2.26 @ Pinnacle) 5 units

Giota
12-06-07, 20:44
Satyr seems that we have the same picks :)

welcome back

AlexG
12-06-07, 21:21
Atlanta @ Minnesota 8:10 PM EST

Atlanta Braves +135
Baseball - MLBINTERLEAGUE Ė Moneyline @ Bodog
Tue@8:10p
I donít see Kevin Slowey winning vs Braves tonight .
Atlanta is 8-1 this year when playing with a day off. Minnesota comes in losers of 6 of their last 8 games overall. Atlanta is scoring 5.4 rpg on the road and 5.4 rpg against Righty Starters this year. Minnesota is scoring only 4.6 rpg overall and 4.6 rpg at home this year.
Chipper Jones likely be in the lineup today and that should give a boost to the Braves' offence

Atlanta Braves + 135 for 2 units

Matt
12-06-07, 21:38
Detroit Tigers (-1) over Milwaukee Brewers @ 1.81 (Pinnacle)

Things are not going to get any easier for the Brew-Crew in Detroit. Heading into this series they have gone 9-18, including their current 3 game losing streak. Detroit on the other hand has won 6 of their last 8 games, and are 21-7 over their last 28 inter-league games. The Tigers will also be sending their ace (Justin Verlander) to the mound today to face a struggling Brewers line-up. He is 6-2 with a 3.12 ERA on the season, and the Brewers have an 8-4 record when he pitches. Jeff Suppan will be starting for Milwaukee today, and he has given up 4 or more runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. He is 3-4 this season away from home with an ERA of 4.17. The Tigers have been hammering the ball this season having scored a major league leading 374 runs, and are batting a very impressive .293 as a team. Detroit will also be welcoming back Magglio Ordonez into their line-up today, who is batting .367 this season. He also has had a very successful past again Jeff Suppan batting .395 with 2 home-runs and 6 RBIís. The Brewers are trying to hang on to a 5.5 game lead in the NL Central, but having watched this team quite closely over the past few weeks I do not see them turning things around any time soon.

8u


Red Sox/Rockies Over 9.5 @ 1.91 (Pinnacle)

The Rockies have gone 13-5 since May 21st to climb within 1 game of being a .500 team. They are now only 5.5 games back of NL West leading San Diego. They are 3-3 in inter-league play this season, and will be facing the Red Sox for the first time since 2002. They have won 7 of their last 8 away from Coors field, and will be facing Tim Wakefield, who has gone 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA against the Rockies in his career. The knuckleballer has had a lot of struggles with his control this season, and many experts believe that he is well past his prime. As he walks a lot of batters the Rockies should be able to score some runs as they are a very patient team at the plate. In his last two starts Wakefield is 0-2 with a 9.58 ERA, and an opponents batting average of .293. The Rockies will be starting Aaron Cook who is 4-1 with a 5.16 ERA over his last seven starts. He allowed three runs in five innings in his only career start against the Red Sox. I believe this game will soar over the total.

5u

prince
12-06-07, 22:53
detroit looks like a great bet, suppan struggled mightily with his command last start and the tigers certainly arent a cure for that problem

Cuore
13-06-07, 01:09
No explanations ...I've bet on 3 combos:

1) Detroit ML + Angels RL 7 units
2) Cleveland ML + Texas-Pits Over 9.5 3 1/2 units
3) Col-Boston over 9 + Sdg-TB under 9 + Oak-Hou under 9 2 units

prince
13-06-07, 03:21
congrats to Justin Verlander (Detroit) for throwing a no hitter (12 strikeouts as well). he made the Brewers look like a little league team all game

tkt
13-06-07, 08:41
congrats to Justin Verlander (Detroit) for throwing a no hitter (12 strikeouts as well). he made the Brewers look like a little league team all game

Yeah, looks like old good days coming back, so many favs were losing again in MLB yesterday. Detroit just wasn't one of the loosers :D
Detroit can score runs, not some Cleveland idiots. Finally a stupid team you cannot trust ;)

Wintzi
13-06-07, 09:57
juuso]i'm a bit confused... for the game between oakland and houston, around 70% of the public bets are on the a's as a huge underdog... if they win, the books will loose some money


1 gane means nothing for the books and it's a positive expectation calculated risk for them. They will always have that small margin in their favor and no matter what consensus sites say, those percentages are not very exact and they don't show how the money bet is spread between games. there's surely some big bets on Houston as well.

Oswalt is an Elite pitcher and a monster at home and no matter how bad the Astros have looked, they are better against left handed pitching and Oswalt always has a real chance to go deep by giving up minimal amount of runs. I think the line is pretty much correct at the moment.

interesting fact... all the public dogs lost tonight, Arizona, San Diego, Oakland and Atlanta were all favored by the majority of the bettors ;)

Giota
13-06-07, 14:26
When i am adding my leans to my record than i have a total of 3 of 5 yesterday.

Won:
Detroit -1,5
Washington over 3,5
SF ML

Lost:
Angels -1,5
Oakland @ Houston under 4 runs in the first 5 innings

3W - 2L + 3.85 Profit

I also had Texas @ Pittsburgh over, but i havent post it here so i dont add it to my profit.


In a few hours i will add my picks for today ..

prince
13-06-07, 14:56
interesting fact... all the public dogs lost tonight, Arizona, San Diego, Oakland and Atlanta were all favored by the majority of the bettors ;)it was a great night for the home teams