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MLB 2007 2W -1L 1.9 units
New York Mets Detroit Tigers .Pick New York Mets 2.050 @ Pinnacle 1 init
I’m going with Mets today .They are very good road team (19-8) this year . We saw yesterday O.Perez struggle vs. Tigers ,but today is different story : Tom Glavine has a 2.57 ERA when playing the Tigers and has pitched solid this season (3.36 ERA) .
I’m not sold on rookie Andrew Miller against Mets lineup ,don’t get me wrong he’s a good pitcher but won’t cut it today .Mets will be fully behind Tom Glavine ,who’s going for a win 296 . While the Mets have scored just 10 runs in Glavine's last four outings, they may be on the verge of delivering for him. And they will today .
Good luck!
My first post here, hope it will be a good one :)
I have to disagree with AlexG.Mets aren't in perfect shape and Glavine is a solid pitcher, but Detroit has a good offence and Miller is a very talented youngster.Glavine hasn't received much run support from his mates in his last four outings and I don't think anything will change.Mets aren't simply hot enough to win the series with Detroit.Miller had some generous run support from tigers' batters against St Louis while he pitched six shutout innings of a 14-4 victory.Mets will be a real test for him, but this is the time when he can prove himself.Andrew has gone 2-0, 0.79 ERA in his last 3 starts.
Anyway, I see no value in either NY Mets or Detroit.I favour the tigers, but the odds are a bit low IMO.I like the under here.9.5 is a little big line for this pitching match-up.I expect a result similar to the one of the opener(3-0).Yesterday Detroit won 8-7, but I really doubt we will see more than 9-10 runs today.As I said, Mets aren't hot enough and Detroit shouldn't be able to score much against Glavine, inspite of their good offence.
Tampa Bay @ Florida is a game which can go either way.Two rookie pitchers going against each other - you never know what's going to happen, especially when the teams are so evenly matched.But the only thing that seems right to me is to bet over.I really don't think we will see few runs in this game, especially with D-Rays' hot bats.Tampa Bay (27-33) is averaging 4.8 runs and hitting .264 this season, but those numbers have jumped to 7.4 runs and a .330 batting average on its six-game road trip, which wraps up Sunday.Florida won the opener 14-8.Yesterday TB won 7-2, but with aces Willis and Sheets we couldn't expect so many runs as in the first game.But with Andy Sonnanstine 0-0, 7.71 on the mound for TB and Rick Vanden Hurk 1-1, 8.50 for Florida I think we could be in for a dramatic high-scoring game.The line of 10 runs is quite high, but it can easily be covered by D-Rays and Marlins bats.Vanden Hurk had a good outing against Atlanta, but the bats of devil rays are really hot and I doubt he can cool them.
Cleveland @ Cincinnati is a tricky game with two aces on the mound, but since we have Sabathia on the mound I will back Cleveland with him + their mighty offence.Reds are an average team and indians should be able to win this game.Under is also a good choice for this game but 9.0 runs is a tricky line, because if Indians have a good day they can cover it by themselves.Harang is quite solid, but he has a bit high ERA and I cannot put my money on him.
So my early plays are:
Tampa Bay / Florida Over 10 @ 1.901 Pinnacle 5 units
NY Mets / Detroit Under 10 @ 1.813 Pinnacle 5 units
Cleveland Indians @ 1.667 Pinnacle 7 units
If they are going well I might add more play for the games starting at 4.05 PM and after.
Hope we'll have Satyr back in a few days.I always check his picks before making a bet.
Good luck !
Just for the record .. AlexG is a Yankee fan :D
Hi,
Today I am taking into account two games:
MIN Twins [1,5] @ 5/10
MIN Twins @ 8/10
I was a huge suprise that Nationals defeat Twins yesterday. What is more, on the mound we had Twins`s ace Santana. Today we will be seeing Boof Bonser (4-2, 4.12 ERA) for Minnesota. This will be his first career start against Washington. On the other hand, the rookie Mike Bacsik(1-2, 4.13).
I can not see here, how Twins can lose their another game against such a weak team.
CHI White Sox @ 4/10
I can not believe. White Sox have lost 5 games in a row. Buehrle (2-3, 3.99 ERA), who's trying to become the 12th pitcher in franchise history to register 100 victories, is 0-3 with a 4.73 ERA in seven starts since beating Kansas City seven weeks ago. The Astros' Wandy Rodriguez (3-5, 4.31) will try to win consecutive road starts for just the second time in his career and first since he was a rookie.
I have some feelings that the losing strike for Chicago will end today.
[fin]juuso
10-06-07, 16:26
MLB YTD: 98 bets - 49W-43L-4P +58.96 units. ROI = 113.63%
Average stake per bet 4.40 units. Average odds 2.18
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees
Pirates 3.36 (Pinnacle) 2 units
Small shot on the Pirates as a big road underdog. I do think the odds should be slightly below 3 here. The Yankees are of course hitting the ball and playing well at the moment, but despite his good ERA, Rookie Tyson Clippard is still young and quite inexperienced pitcher with only 4 Major League starts under his belt. While he has been effective overall, he doesn't throw deep into games and his only start home at the Yankee stadium was the worst of the bunch (out of 4 starts). Pirates starter Shawn Chacon is a mediocre pitcher overall, but he has been reasonably effective as a starter throughout his career and he is currently having a decent season (3.26 ERA). He has also pitched many decent games at this park as he was member of the Yankees staff past couple of seasons (2005-2006). He is very familiar with the Park and going against his former team might be an extra motivator for him. Yankees do have lineup and bullpen advantages, but with Chacon pitching, at this price, i'm willing to take a shot on the Pirates.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Blue Jays 1.971 (Pinnacle) 4 units
Doc Halladay having 3 uncharastically bad starts over his last 4 games is a bit of a mystery to me. Sure, he spent a short while in the Disabled List just recently, but that was a non arm-related issue. He was very sharp first game back vs. the White Sox, but was knocked around hard last time out against Tampa. I'm inclined to dismiss these bad games and occasional control issues as bad luck/anomaly kind of thing rather than real problem, at least for now. Bottom line, he is still one of the best around and he should be decent in a spacious Park like the Dodger stadium. Getting him at this price is probably nice value. Dodger starter Jason Schmidt is of course very good, but not quite as good as Halladay. This is his 2nd game back from the Disabled List. He went 6 innings against the Padres first game back, but may not yet have the energy to throw deep. Dodgers are a good home team and they have a small bullpen advantage as well, but this is Interleague and Blue Jays have the better lineup and also a decent bulpen. I like them here at about even odds. If Halladay can be anywhere near his normal level, they should be in a good postion to win.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ Florida Marlins
Marlins Team total over 5 @ 2.03 (Pinnacle) 4 units
5 may look like a relatively high number, but Florida has a capable and productive lineup and facing Andy Sonnenstine + Rays shaky bullpen should provide for plenty of scoring chances. Sonnenstine is making his 2nd start in the Majors. He has potential and he didn't walk anyone in his debut, but did give up plenty of hits and eventually 6 runs in 7 innings at Toronto. It won't likely get much easier today against decent Marlin lineup. Even if he can be sharp, Florida would get a 2nd chance against that bullpen. Adding that all up, over at 5, at + odds is probably a decent bet here.
GL!
Mlb picks: 5-8 -10 units
My first pick for today is TB - Florida pick over 9.5 @ 1.9. 6 units
Both teams are using weak pitchers, with over 7 Eras. If yesterday, when they had one of their best pitchers on mound...the game finished 7-2,so they showed that they can hit, than I expect today to be an easy over. The first game of this session has finished 8-14..so..over for me!
Second pick :
Col - Baltimore pick Baltimore RL @ 2.25 4 units
Bedard(strikes a lot - 95 strikeouts) is better than hirsh (3.7ERA better than 4.9 ERA), Bal plays at home were they are better, they want to get back on Col whom won last night after 10 innings. I hope for a win at 2-3 runs difference. Something like in their first game , when Bal won 4-2.
Peter the Farmer
10-06-07, 19:51
BTW what is a ERA ?
BTW what is a ERA ?
ERA = Earned Run Average ;)
Next picks...
Philly - Kzc pick Philly RL @ 2.15 5 units
Moyer is slightly better than De la Rosa. Also... both pitchers are weaker on their homeground..and better away...so...thats an advantage for Moyer. Also Kzc is one of the weakest team in MLB...and at home they just suck (10-22)...while philly is even better away (17-15). Also Philly's players are hitting better.
LA ANGELS - STL pick Angels RL @ 2.00 7 units
Angels is far better team than STL. Weaver(3.8 ERA) is better than Wellermayer (7.2 Era). Angels hitting line is really hot these days...they've allready won the first 2 meetings and they did it with handicap. So...I really expect an easy win for Angels!
Strange picks in last days, I believe guys that you could do a little bit better next time, talking of course about writeups :).
MLB 2007 7W 8L -1.61 units
St Louis Cardinals - LAA Angels - 8 units on St Louis Cardinals @ 2.44 Pinnacle
There are a few points behind the Cardinals there and I have to follow them, especially at such high price. First one, one of the most important is a lack of Kotchman and Anderson, which are both placed on a injury list, marked as questionable for today's game. Take a look at the stats and find out, how important they are. For the 3rd time Cards are trying to get a win in that Interleague series with LAA - with Wellemeyer there is a chance for sure too. 1-0 with ERA 4.11, after moving from Royals is a hot prospect there. I know, that STL bats are up to oppose Weaver, but I can't stand the price given there. I would not rate it like that, it is more like 48-52% game, so the value is obvious.
Milwaukee/Texas Over 10.5 @ 1.96
Tonight the Brewers will be looking to avoid a 3 game sweep at the hands of the Texas Rangers. Last night the Rangers mounted a surprising comeback in the bottom of the ninth inning scoring 4 runs off of the Brewers star closer Francisco Cordero to win 4-3. The blown save was Cordero’s first in 23 appearances this season. The Brewers are still in first place in the NL Central with a 33-28 record, but their lead has diminished after losing 18 of their last 26 games, including 11 of their last 13 on the road, and nine of their last ten in inter-league play. Vincente Padilla will be starting for the Rangers today, and he has been the true definition of a disappointment this season as he was expected to be the second best pitcher in the Rangers rotation, but he has gone 2-8 on the season with an atrocious 6.45 ERA! Texas is just 2-10 in Padilla’s 12 starts this season and he may not be 100% healthy as he missed his last start due to a right triceps irritation. The Brewers will be starting the right hander Dave Bush. This season he is 3-6 with a 5.67ERA, and an opponents batting average of .296. He has been even worse away from home this season going 1-2 with a 7.09 ERA and a .361 opponent’s batting average. The Rangers bat’s have been hot over the past week batting nearly .300 (.298) and I believe they will be able to score early and often in this game. Although I would lean to Texas as a side, it appears to me the only bet in this game is over.
8u
Not the perfect night for me, but TB/FLA Over (9.5, not 10 as I have written) cashed in, Detroit and Mets completely destroyed my prediction and CLE/CIN game is tied at 0-0 in the 9th which means anything can happen, but let's see what have the late games got in store for us.
Got 2 dogs on mind, but games starting in 20 minutes, so short writeups:
Seattle to beat San Diego 3/10 @ 2.33 Pinnacle
King Felix on the mound.He didn't pitched well in his last outing, but we know what he is capable of and we have to give him some time to get back on track as he was injured nearly one month.I think he will limit San Diego to some little runs and mariners bats are hot so 2.33 for Seattle to sweep San Diego? - I'm in.
Toronto to beat LA Dodgers 3/10 @ 2.03 Pinnacle
Roy Halladay had a terrible outing against Tampa Bay, allowing 7 runs in 3 innings.I think he will do his best in order to get back on track.He is still the best pitcher of the Blue Jays.Schmidt is just an average pitcher IMO and Dodgers aren't something special this season, so Toronto is my pick.
Well, my only other pick for today is Milwaukee Brewers @ Texas Rangers Over 10.5 @ 1.943 Pinnacle 6 units
Important facts of this game are already mentioned by Matt, I have nothing to add.No need to repeat things he has said.I just think that Milwaukee should finally win a game of this series and start hitting more.Both teams are starting with below average pitchers.Bush and Padilla have high ERAs and I don't think they will improve.Texas can hit, Milawaukee shoud pound Padilla, so the only thing I can predict is a high-scoring series finale.
Good luck & go go indians ! Cincinnati won 1:0 in the 12th...
Let's sum up:
Mets/Tigers 7:15 - lost 5 units
Indians/Reds 0:1 - lost 7 units
D-Rays/Marlins 9:4 - won 9.5 units (4.5 units profit)
Mariners/Padres 4:3 - won 7 units (4 units profit)
Blue Jays/Dodgers 11:5 - won 6.1 units (3.1 units profit)
Brewers/Rangers 6:5 in the 9th - won 11.67 units (5.67 units profit)
Picks: 6
Won:4
Lost: 2
Staked: 29
Returned:34.27
Profit: +5.27
Just like RedSox ..not going to well till now. Only the over from Tampa Bay. Baltimore is out:( Philly isn't good at all...Angels...not sure... I'll try another play
Seattle - San Diego pick SD (-1) @ 1.9 4 units
Because I think it's time for them to win 1 game in this session against Seattle, having their best pitcher on mound, Young. They also play at home were they are very good (20-11). Hernandez has allowed in 43 innings almost as many runs as Young did in 74. Hoping for better results...
Cuore i am not sure about you and your predictions. Did you ever saw baseball? Well i am not a MLB tipster but when i compare your predictions with the others one i have to say that you have no idea about the game. You are reading sportsline stats and writing them here down. There was a better quality before.
Sry but thats my opinion.
Peter the Farmer
11-06-07, 00:45
Oakland thank you very much, you win with 2-0 and i can go satisfied to sleep :D :D :D :D :D
once again trevor hoffmann gives away the win in the 9th... :oops:
Cuore i am not sure about you and your predictions. Did you ever saw baseball? Well i am not a MLB tipster but when i compare your predictions with the others one i have to say that you have no idea about the game. You are reading sportsline stats and writing them here down. There was a better quality before.
Sry but thats my opinion.
No problem, you are totaly right. A bit drastic..but you are right. Before I started posting my plays I was usually winning on baseball. I've had awfull picks. But I've had so much bad luck... Anyway...you are right. Tomorow will be my last day playing and posting MLB. If i wont win...then...:|. Sorry I was wrong about those picks, but..believe me I've played almost all the time on the favorite and without counting hazard...considering all the facts ( pitchers, hitting lines, form,home/away) and still...many many many surprises:( half of my looses were in the 9th inning or later
Cuore, no need to leave. You're obviously a beginner in some aspects of betting baseball, and you still don't know some things, but so what?
Nobody knew everything from the beginning. Take some time to learn. Not necessarily from cappers here, but from gamecasts, try getting some live games on TV or via MLB.tv, study baseball for a while and in a season or two you'll be more efficient and your writeups will improve.
You do approach some things wrongly, but it doesn't matter. BA isn't an elite forum for "top notch experts only", after all I'm not an expert either. I just follow it a bit more longer than you do, perhaps.
Anyways, don't worry about the picks or writeups, just keep learning and adjusting your posting style to new things you learn.
Cheers & GL.
Cuore, no need to leave. You're obviously a beginner in some aspects of betting baseball, and you still don't know some things, but so what?
Nobody knew everything from the beginning. Take some time to learn. Not necessarily from cappers here, but from gamecasts, try getting some live games on TV or via MLB.tv, study baseball for a while and in a season or two you'll be more efficient and your writeups will improve.
You do approach some things wrongly, but it doesn't matter. BA isn't an elite forum for "top notch experts only", after all I'm not an expert either. I just follow it a bit more longer than you do, perhaps.
Anyways, don't worry about the picks or writeups, just keep learning and adjusting your posting style to new things you learn.
Cheers & GL.
Thank you, Satyr. I still believe that I can give better picks...and I'm sure you'll see an improuvement...but I don't know what happened to me lately. Anyway...thanks again...and sorry guys...
[quote="Cuore
Thank you, Satyr. I still believe that I can give better picks...and I'm sure you'll see an improuvement...but I don't know what happened to me lately. Anyway...thanks again...and sorry guys...[/quote]
o c`mon....you`re beeing judged by a guy who doesn`t post picks around here......i don`t either but i am not judging...lol.....i think u should stay and try to do it better.....
i really liked for example angels tonight...and baltimore too.... but this week was really crazy....i lost some good units too.....i really don`t think it`s your foult.....it`s just that the teams are starting to even up....and the bad once are staring to get some wins.....
look at minnesota las night...or lots of examples....this week was a bad one....and i think lots of you around here agree....let`s hope for a better week
Don’t worry about this. Keep going no matter what, this is forum and everyone entitled to an opinion .This interleague is killing all of us this year.
Moreover - please, dont let this forum become just a picksharing forum.
It would be useful to share more infos! More ideas, also to explain a bit more about the game to those, who have no clue about Baseball. (Yes, I should write here more too, since I wasted so many nights lately to watch the games.)
Thats the same in the Tennis-Forum, isnt it possible to work a bit more together and discuss instead of making this some ego-show of who is showing up with the best bets?
One information for all:
If you like to watch Baseball, if you like to watch ALL games, you just need a highspeedinternet-connection of minimum 750kbs and some 80$ for a season ticket.
www.mlb.tv - the quality is outstanding in comparison to all other streamingservices and its the best you can do to get some clue and insideinformations about Baseball, since this sport is almost invisible on European TV-Channels.
[fin]juuso
11-06-07, 06:03
Good post Lakini, i wholeheartedly recommend MLB.TV for anyone who seriously wants to start making his own bets in MLB. You need to watch some games and know the rules by heart if you are seriously going to bet it. watching games can give valuable insights, especially about pitchers that doesn't necessarily show in the stats. Stats of course are of the of main importance after you know the sport inside out. You are unlikely to do well by only watching, but you can do well by watching very little/only occasionally, if you know your way with the numbers. Baseball is a game for the stat/math freaks and everything can be represented in numbers, but knowing what matters and making statistical models needs thorough understanding of the game and different factors involved.
About discussing the games, I would be glad to discuss about the games and other things related to betting it here, as long as there's good interesting discussion going on. I am certainly not answering to posts like "What about Yankees, will they win today?" "What ERA means?" etc.
And don't worry guys. Interleague can by tricky, but don't push it by betting a lot of games with relatively high stakes if you don't exactly know what you are doing. I've had some bad luck last 3 days going 1/3 every day, but i haven't lost much because of conservative staking, and i still think i made correct moves in most of them and lost couple in unlucky way by 1 run. That's just the way it goes sometimes. Baseball is one of the most even sports around and any team can win any other team on any given night easily. You are bound to experience some streaks when you start betting baseball. It's a season long grind, don't expect to get rich overnight.
interleague is very tricky, and thats a reason i havent made posted a bet on here for it :)
I agree with Lakini, we should discuss more, instead of just sharing the picks. Lak you'd have to join the discussions as well ;).
So from now on, we discuss more. I'll rejoin the discussions soon since I finally broke out of that nasty slump in the last 2 days.
Cheers.
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