3a70 MLB: 25-05-2007 [Archive] - Bettingadvice forum

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meser
25-05-07, 15:30
@ BA 2007: 19W/19L +16.42 units


Seattle Mariners @ KC Royals,
7 units on Mariners ML, 1.87 @ Pinnacle

Very interesting matchup here. And I am high on the Mariners and Felix Hernandez (2-2, 2.77 ERA), despite facing another terrific pitcher, Gil Meche (3-2, 2.44 ERA). After his stint on the DL, Hernandez had two outings. And even if he didn't pitch as well as he can, I would say he had some rather encouraging stuff.

The Mariners was Gil Meche's only team, before signing a five-year, $55 mil contract with the Royals, a move which was the subject of many news artices and controversies. Well, Meche stuck to his job and delivered some outstanding starts, but his batters didn't help him that much. The Royals are still the Royals and even this 8-3 streak doesn't impress me. Meche admitted his April start in Seattle was very emotional, he had "butterflies"; he was indeed a bit off, allowing three unearned runs and 10 hits, but picked up the win. Well, I see this as a minus, like his last start, when he gave up five runs and two homers in five innings @ Coors Field, against Colorado.

Both teams have hot batters and surprising bullpens, but I still give the edge to the Mariners.

LA Angels @ NY Yankees,
4 units on Angels ML, 2.13 @ Pinnacle

Let's see if we can still cash in by fading the Yankees. The Yankees just won a series against long-time rivals the Red Sox, so we may have a small letdown spot here. Their batting started to work a bit, but the spark is not quite there. Apart from the Moose, Wang and Pettitte, their pitching is still an unknown. That includes rookie Tyson Clippard, who had an excellent MLB debut - who allowed just one run and three hits in six innings in a 6-2 win over the Mets on Sunday - but who may have some trouble against the smallball approach of the Halos lineup.

Angels throw a young pitcher of their own on the mound. But Jered Weaver is one pitcher who really proved himself. After an average season start (1-3 with a 5.12 ERA), the right-hander returned to his electric stuff and went 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in his last three outings. Weaver already beat the Yankees on their home ground last August, allowing one run and three hits in six innings.

Every team gives its best when they play the Bronx Bombers and as the Yankees are not at full throttle, we may pick up something for ourselves along the way.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
5 units on Braves RL, 2.35 @ Pinnacle

The Phillies still have quite a hard time winning and fielding Jamie Moyer (4-3, 4.37 ERA) may not prove to be a turning point. Moyer looks to be in a funk - he has given up 12 runs and 17 hits (including four homers) over 9.2 innings in his last two starts. His record against the Braves also shows some poor numbers: 1-6, 5.37 ERA in eight career appearances, with a 6.00 ERA on Turner Field.

Braves counter with another veteran. Tim Hudson (5-2, 2.42 ERA) comes after an inadequate start, too, in which he allowed a season-high six runs in 4.2 innings, but against tough AL contenders, Boston Red Sox. However, Hudson owned the Phillies this year, limiting them to three runs and six hits in 15 innings during two starts. Braves also have a better and a more rested bullpen coming into the matchup. They benefited from a complete game from John Smoltz, while the Phillies pen worked a total of five innings in yesterday's 11 inning game in Miami.

Leans:
Minnesota Twins ML
Florida Marlins ML

GL !!

godspicks
25-05-07, 18:37
Friday, May 25, 2007

MLB
KANSAS CITY (MECHE +1.5 -150) Seattle (Hernandez)

Runline plays where the line is in typical range of -1.5 (+160) to +1.5 (+130) and a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or fewer hits per start with a bullpen WHIP under 1.250 in their last 15 games is +124.4 units.

Felix the Cat Hernandez has been beatable lately with an ERA of 8.00 in his last three starts with a 2.778 WHIP. He’s still looking for a quality start since coming off the DL. He faces a Royal team with a .315 batting average and .374 OBP in his their last seven games, averging 6.3 runs.

Gil Meche has great numbers of a 2.44 ERA and 1.236 WHIP for the year. His home WHIP is 1.020. We don’t see Seattle winning by multiple runs.

[fin]juuso
25-05-07, 19:10
MLB YTD: 66 bets - 33W-30L-3P +35.34 units. ROI = 111.89%
Average stake per bet 4.5 units. Average odds 2.183

Lost a few in a row. Hoping for a better day today. I think i've made good value plays, but there's always much randomness and luck involved in a single baseball game.

Seattle Mariners @ Kansas City Royals

Royals @ 2.16 (Pinnacle) 5 units

Seattle has been bet down a little during the past hour or two, but i think this move is unwarranted. I like Kansas here at home as a small underdog. They should be small favorites instead imo. Hernandez is a very good pitcher and can be good here, but Gil Meche has pitched even slightly better overall and is facing his former team, which might be a motivator for him. He has pitched very well all season, and his only average game was last time out at Coors, which wasn't too bad or surprising. He will likely be effective here against the Mariners lineup that isn't very good against Right-handed pitching and is also quite an impatient lineup. They draw very few walks or strikeouts as they swing most of the balls in play fast. That will likely help Meche to last deep and can minimize the effect of the bullpen, which is the only clear advantage Seattle has here. Kansas batting is warming up and they have always enjoyed considerably high home advantage at Kauffman stadium. Seattle has had hectic traveling schedule this week. They flew from Seattle to play one game at Cleveland, continued to Tampa for three games and are now starting new series at Kansas City. It's 4th city in 6 days. That might take a toll on them. Situationally, this could be a tough spot for Seattle and i think there's good value on the Royals as a home dog.



Tampa Bay Devil Rays @ Chicago White Sox

Devil Rays @ 2.37 (Pinnacle) 4 units

Chi Sox has the worst overall hitting numbers in the AL to date. Sure, they've improved a bit lately and there's a consensus among the general public that the White Sox is turning it around. That may very well be the case, but i simply have to take Tampa with Shields at this price. Shields has been very sharp both home and on the road. He has been pitching deep into games and has met several strong batting teams. Chicago starter Mark Buehrle is also very good, but not as good as Shields. Both bullpens are bad and capable of late inning meltdowns, so no big advantage for either team there. White Sox lineup is OK, but haven't been overly impressive this season. Tampa has a good improving young lineup and they've been more competitive on the road this season compared to past few seasons. I do think there's some good value on them here as a nice sized road dog.

[fin]juuso
25-05-07, 19:19
Meser, I see we have a different opinion on Seattle/KC game. This game can definitely go either way, so Good Luck. At least someone wins.

Satyr
25-05-07, 20:50
MLB 2007: 61 W-5V-50 L +69.28 units

0-2 yesterday again as far as posted plays are concerned. If we're talking reality, I actually went 4-2 and made solid profit, also nailed a nice treble. I didn't post those plays because mostly those were the early games and I was away for the most of the day. But let's try to nail some winners tonight shall we.

Liking several for tonight:

Braves (Hudson) (RL) (2.38 @ Pinnacle) 5 units

I actually considered going 8 units on the ML here, but decided for this, a tad riskier option instead. For lesser stake of course. I'm well aware Jamie Moyer (4-3, 4.37 ERA) is a legend, a true presence on the mound, and he's rightfully getting the respect here when RL price is concerned. However, it's likely we won't have to rely on Moyer getting shelled to cash in this one anyway. Of course it would be great if he kept his recent form going (1-2, 6.84 in his last four starts) but even if he didn't, we might have a chance here, as Philly pen is hurting (Myers will miss the game), plus they played extra innings last night, dropping a dramatic game to the Fish after failing to capitalize on bases loaded with 1 out in top 11th. Also, if Moyer is looking to bounce back somewhere, he isn't starting in his favorite town: 1-6, 5.37 ERA career average against the Braves, and has never won in Atlanta.
The Phillies are a team of many woes, Howard is on and off the DL, mostly cold when he plays, their pen is subpar (last 20 innings: 6.30 ERA), Chase Utley was supposed to miss last night's game so his status might be questionable as well
Tim Hudson (5-2, 2.42 ERA) will get the nod for the Braves, he wasn't stellar lately (2-1, 4.58 ERA in last 3) and the downside of this bet could be the fact that Chipper Jones won't be in the lineup for the home team tonight. However, I'm counting on the Braves to feast off some of the momentum they should get going after beating the Mets in 2 out of 3 games and capitalize on Philly's woes, mentioned above.
Atlanta is 5-1 against Philadelphia this year, covering the RL in 3 out of 5 wins.


Angels (Weaver) (2.26 @ Pinnacle) 7 units

You have to be kidding me. I expected a pick 'em or near. Ok the oddsmakers are smarter than me and this way they're getting money both ways, put Yanks near PK at home and you'll get less backers. However, look at this one a bit deeper. No one can tell me Tyler Clippard (1-0, 1.50 ERA) is favored this much against one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. Clippard allowed one run and three hits in six innings of the Yankees' 6-2 win over the New York Mets at Shea Stadium on Sunday in his major league debut.
Ok the Angels were thumped by the Tigers in the last two games but here's a nice chance to regroup. Plus, the Halos just step up at the Yankee stadium.
Clippard is a big liability tonight. He might have another solid outing, but it would more natural for a pitcher of his profile and experience to come down to Earth.
On the other side, the Halos will send out Jered Weaver (3-3, 3.46 ERA), who has been superb sans his first few starts. In limited at bats, the Yanks don't have a good record against him in terms of BA. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA in his last three starts after starting 1-3 with a 5.12 ERA.
The Angels are taking several impressive numbers into this one: in the last week we have Mike Napoli batting .462 with 3 homers, Cabrera .455 with 2 HRs, Kotchman and Hillenbrand are heating up, Willits and Figgins are raising hell with superb baserunning, and we have Vladdy Guerrero batting only .238 in last 7 days. Guerrero is a big game player, he steps up in games like this and feasts off big crowds and statement games. Especially the Yankees: Vlad is hitting .309 against the Yankees in his career and .455 (10-for-22) in his last five games against New York.
I can't miss out on the value here as the Halos try to stop the bleeding following a 20 run effort by the Tigers in the last 2 games. Except from Damon and Jeter, I don't think we have any Yanks big bats rolling at the moment (Rodriguez last 22 AB, .227 BA, v Weaver 0-for-3).


Looking at:

San Francisco (Cain) RL
Arizona-Houston over



I'm very close to pulling the trigger on the Giants but have to rush out at the moment, so I might post it later on. Cheers.

Dangol
25-05-07, 22:21
YTD 4W-3L-0P +1.65Units

NY Mets (O Hernandez) @ FLA Marlins (S Mitre)

NY METS (O Hernandez) -1.5 2.20 @Stan James 6 Units

The Mets are coming to Florida in a match they would like to win after their loss yesterday to Atlanta , 2-1.
The Marlins Barely won yesterday after double overtime with the score 5-4 over the Phillies. They Are a bit tired. at least more than the Mets.
This 2 teams had already met 5 times this season , The Mets took it 3 times and the marlins took 2. all this 5 wins were above 1.5, even above 2.5.

So , I believe the Mets hand will be the upper hand tonight , the Stats say that the winner here wins by more then 1.5. Going with that!

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