PDA

View Full Version : MLB: 21-05-2007


fgenez
21-05-07, 13:21
http://cjoint.com/data/fvno1YnTNm_pinac.JPG

sirelviz
21-05-07, 14:48
Good evening, Ive been reading the forum for quite some time now, and decided to start posting my own picks aswell. Good luck !

Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds

Reds RL @ 1.909 (Pinnacle) 7 units

The Washington Nationals will use starting pitcher Levale Speigner. Levale Speigner is a relief pitcher who just recently became a starting pitcher. In his one and only start this season, Levale Speigner lasted only four innings, giving up 4 runs.

Cincinnati Reds will use starting pitcher Bronson Arroyo. Bronson Arroyo has been decent this season (2.64 ERA), and should be able to get away with a win against a very poor Washington Nationals offense.

The Reds won five of six games against the Nationals last season and have won 10 of the 12 meetings.

[fin]juuso
21-05-07, 15:20
http://forum.bettingadvice.com/viewtopic.php?t=64148

Maybe a mod can merge these threads?

[fin]juuso
21-05-07, 17:07
MLB YTD: 62 bets - 33W-26L-3P +54.34 units. ROI = 119.54%
Average stake per bet 4.48 units. Average odds 2.169

Apparently this forum doesn't have a merge thread option, so here's my post from early morning. Odds are still about same. Just posting this here so the previous thread can be deleted. Good luck everyone!


Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Indians

Mariners @ 3.04 (WSEX) 4 units

I have a hard time figuring out how this line is going to move. I would guess it comes down, but i can't be certain as Cleveland is a public team and will probably be a popular pick. Anyway, this line is enough off for me to play it now. The Indians have been tough team to beat at home. They are of course very good and so is Sabathia, but i don't classify him as an Elite pitcher. He is more of an above average hurler that can be very solid, but also has some erratic moments quite often. Seattle lineup is average at best overall, but they feature a lot of right-handed hitters and are a team built to hit Lefties. They can be very productive when facing a southpaw. Their starter Cha Seung Baek is talented and a lot better than you could think by looking at his 5.12 ERA. One bad and short start at the Yankee stadium is skewing his stats, but 3 of his 5 starts have been quality outings and in his last 2 starts he handled the Tigers on the Road pitching a complete game win and also pitched well against the Angels at home in his latest start. Seattle bullpen is also a little bit better. The Tribe has been killing Righties at home, but i think Baek has a good chance to match the performance of Sabathia here or at least keep this one close. I made this line about 2.60 for Seattle myself, so these odds are quite a bit off and i see some solid value here.

[fin]juuso
21-05-07, 17:12
And btw, i'm not sure why people are posting odds in every topic of this board, but for US leagues there's many line services for realtime odds. this one is free and it rocks: www.sbrlines.com

You can change the odds to decimal from options if you prefer. They have almost realtime odds movement (couple of seconds delay) on all the best offshore bookies and you can check the line movement history at each book.

Satyr
21-05-07, 18:35
MLB 2007: 59 W-4V-46 L +79.58 units


I decided to scratch most of my initial thoughts and start with a clean slate and a clean approach. I wanted to take the White Sox but Crede is out, and who knows how Thome will be off the DL facing a solid pitcher, and the A's are a rather solid bunch, so I'm not going to be on Contreras tonight.

I leaned Tribe RL but decided a slightly different road.

Indians - Mariners (over 10) (2.27 @ Pinnacle) 5 units

Situationally, schedule wise, this isn't the best spot to back the Mariners, as they're traveling just for this make up game and back on the road tomorrow. So I wanted to back the Indians here. However, even though I see Sabathia as a classy pitcher, the Mariners have been killing lefties this year (6-0 against LHPs and I believe seeing they're hitting .320 off them) and the way I see this game both teams can do the job to ensure our over hits. Probably it will be the Indians, as they're impressive at home and are facing Baek who is shaky both on the road and against a lineup stacked with left handed hitters, which Cleveland obviously is (Sizemore, Hafner, Nixon, Martinez, Delucci).
I just can't underestimate the Mariners at this point despite their bad schedule situation, their offense is hot and cold but I'm thinking if they're confident against left handed pitching, they should tag CC at least for 3, maybe 4 runs. Cleveland can score 6 or more off Baek. I can't TOTALLY rule out the possibility Sabathia will suffer a meltdown, even though it's unlikely considering the way he's been pitching lately, but I just can't rule that out at this point.
Note that I sold a complete run, and got myself a way better price (over 9 is available at 1.87, while over 10 is 2.27, and since I have this one capped at 10 anyway, I'll take the plus money).

I probably won't make any other play tonight.
Leans are:
Red Sox (Wakefield) (2.37)
Yankees-Red Sox over 10


Good luck guys.

sirelviz
21-05-07, 18:53
Indians - Mariners (over 9) (1.83 @ bet365) 7 units

Seems Satyr beat me to this play, so wont bother writing any reasoning for the pick, altho I wont buy another run for better odds myself.

That is it for me tonite, good luck everyone.

Dangol
21-05-07, 18:55
Dangol's MLB Picks For Today 21.05:
YTD 0W-0L-0P Average odds : 0.00 +:0Units

Boston Red Sox (Wakefield) @ New York Yankees (Wang)

Boston +1.5 @ 1.65 (StanJames) 6 Units

The Yankees will host the great Red Sox for a top notch game.
Both teams have won their last game , The Sox over came Atlanta while the Yankees won in the Nwe York Derby.
The Red Sox are on a huge roll of winning. in the past 15 games they won 12 including 3 over Toronto , 3 over Detroit ,2 Against Atlanta and 2 over Baltimore. and they hold the best Overall W/L this season with 30 wins and 13 losses. Also they are a great road team , winning 14 and losing only 6.
Out of 43 games , the Red Sox are 14-5 against East Coming teams.
About the Yankees , they are only 3-11 Against East Teams - The Worst Overall including the National league.
They are simply cannot win much against them. in the last series for Yankees when they hosted a east team , NY METS they won only 1 out of 3.

I am with Boston+1.5 tonight. if they lose it wont be above 1.

Houston Astros (Sampson) @ San Francisco Giants (Lowry)

San Francisco Giants (Lowry) 1.74 @ (StanJames) 8 Units

The Astros will play against the Giants from San Francisco within a 3day Series.
Both of this teams got a 21-22 overall record this season.
San Francisco played a 3 game series against Oakland in the past days in which they won only the last 1 , 4-1. the first two they lost 4-2 and a huge 15-3 for Oakland. Before that Series , this two teams met at The Astros Stadium for 3 games in which the Astros won the first two , the giants took the third. This time i think it will be different.
My Thoughts are that the Giants will take this game. the first one in this series as they are playing at home.

Thats all! winnnnnn

godspicks
21-05-07, 19:59
Monday, May 21, 2007



MLB
OAKLAND (BLANTON +110) White Sox (Contreras)

Going with a team that gets four or more walks per game against a starting pitcher who gave up two or less earned runs in each of his last two outings is 271-184 +84.4 units.

Oakland is 3-1 the last four with Blanton. His ERA is 3.32 with a 1.107 WHIP. In last three starts it’s 2.42 and 1.120 respectively. Contreras has a 7.71 ERA at home with a 1.857 WHIP.

The Sox have a .226 batting average overall including .210 at home with a horrid .299 OPB. Oakland’s OPS of .846 in May is second only to Detroit.

luka1971
21-05-07, 20:40
Twins v Rangers, over 9,5 runs, 1,98 @Pinnacle, 5/10

This pick caught my attention at first look. I was watching Twins yesterday at Milwaukee and they were very close to sweep very good Brewers until they were punished by 3 runs HR in 4th. Carlos Silva will start for Twins today who has solid numbers thanks to his home appearances but he was not supported by his teammates as they scored just a single run in his three last starts. On the road he’s ERA is slightly worse though but with 2-2 score. His last three starts against Rangers were all high scoring affairs. Minnesota’s bats were quite productive in series against Brewers with 6 runs average in that span. I don’t see the reason why shouldn’t continue with their offence especially now when they face Vicente Padilla for Texas who is sort of nightmare for Rangers as they were celebrating victory in just 1 out of last 9 matches he started. Moreover with him on the mound high scoring matches (over 9,5) were in 7 out of 10 cases, including last one from season 2006. In last start Vicente lasted 4 innings, gave up 8 runs from 12 hits against Tampa. This season Vicente allowed 9 HR. It seems Padilla is having one of the worst seasons in years.
I believe Padilla can’t shut down the potent Twins these days as I also believe Rangers bats are still hot after yesterday’s fire works in Minute Maid Park when they killed Astros pen with 8 scored runs in final 3 innings. All together Rangers scored unbelievable 6 home runs yesterday.

MLB: 9W-5L-2V, +17,39 units

Dangol
21-05-07, 23:22
Another Late Pick By Me :

Washington Nationals (Speigner) @ Cincinnati Reds (Arroyo)

First 5 Innings-Handicap Cincinnati-0.5 1.67 @ (StanJames) 9 Units

Two of the worst teams this season so far will me in colorado for game 1 in the series between them. Washington is coming after a win against Baltimore , 4-2 at Washington , while colorado lost twice in the last 3 games to kansas.
Colorado arent so bad at home this season , they won 10 games & lost 13.
Washington is a very bad Away team , they won only 5 games and lost 15.
Colorado are 2-4 against east coming teams , while washington is only 1-6.

colorado a pretty ok at home while washington isnt "so good" on away games
and against East teams. i belive Colorado will take the lead after 5 innings.

vlasis
22-05-07, 00:08
Another Late Pick By Me :

Washington Nationals (Speigner) @ Cincinnati Reds (Arroyo)

First 5 Innings-Handicap Cincinnati-0.5 1.67 @ (StanJames) 9 Units

Two of the worst teams this season so far will me in colorado for game 1 in the series between them. Washington is coming after a win against Baltimore , 4-2 at Washington , while colorado lost twice in the last 3 games to kansas.
Colorado arent so bad at home this season , they won 10 games & lost 13.
Washington is a very bad Away team , they won only 5 games and lost 15.
Colorado are 2-4 against east coming teams , while washington is only 1-6.

colorado a pretty ok at home while washington isnt "so good" on away games
and against East teams. i belive Colorado will take the lead after 5 innings.
tangle........

nj nets-kings of loosers
22-05-07, 01:53
washinghton lead 6-0 at the top of the 2 inning.stop making stupid posts

Giota
22-05-07, 02:25
please submit picks only when you have a idea of this sport. of course not everything can be right and of course all can happen but post only picks when you are saying the ` why `. for example dengo: you told us only about stats of the game. if i want to know that i can go to sportsline or espn. i also dont like picks with a odd of 1,5 or something like that.

thats just my opinion and not a attack

murgatroyd
22-05-07, 03:54
washinghton lead 6-0 at the top of the 2 inning.stop making stupid posts

whats your problem?

[fin]juuso
22-05-07, 06:06
A bit unlucky with that over bet Satyr.

Hits 12-9 for Seattle and they score only 2 runs. Sabathia was giving up plenty of hits, but Seattle just couldn't take advantage with RISP. It happens.

Baek was sharper than Sabathia overall, but ran into a little trouble after 5.2 good innings. Seattle was the correct +EV side and a good bet with these odds. Indians just got lucky today. Win or lose, these are the kind of bets you expect to make long term profit on.

Magica10
22-05-07, 07:11
ahh come on now guys, someone should have noticed two threads for today and moved a simple 2 posts into the new one if whomever #1 didnt notice that a thread was allready made? and #2 how did another thread get started anyway?

oh well, hope you read the other one then, what can i tell ya lol

someone has got to be able to control that better and get all the posts in one thread, esp only being 2 to move? pretty easy but i think well live on lol See ya!!

Satyr
22-05-07, 07:33
Actually it's not "pretty easy", since this bulletin version doesn't have merge thread option, nor "move post to another thread" option, that's why I wrote there (in the other thread) you should move your post here, so I wouldn't quote you or anything (and jinx you hahaa, see what happened to my over bet? 21 hits and they can't get it done lool :oops: ).

cheers.

Satyr
22-05-07, 07:37
juuso]A bit unlucky with that over bet Satyr.

Hits 12-9 for Seattle and they score only 2 runs. Sabathia was giving up plenty of hits, but Seattle just couldn't take advantage with RISP. It happens.

Baek was sharper than Sabathia overall, but ran into a little trouble after 5.2 good innings. Seattle was the correct +EV side and a good bet with these odds. Indians just got lucky today. Win or lose, these are the kind of bets you expect to make long term profit on.

Definitely a strange, strange game. The over was the play, and as far as pitching is concerned, the Mariners were the play.

Yet we lost BOTH bets rather "easily". 21 hits! Insane. CC wasn't sharp at all, but Seattle lacks a good cleanup hitter since Sexson is hitting like .180. They can put runners on at times but there are games where they just can't capitalize on it.
I remember I think it was 8th inning, bases JUICED and ZERO outs, they only managed to put ONE run on the board.

Cleveland could have blown them out as well, but somehow it stayed under. As I said, a rather strange outcome and even though I usually say the winning side was the right side, I can't say it this time.

Anyways, we have to move on buddy. GL on Tuesday, a lot of strong pitching duels there :).