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Peter the Farmer
07-05-07, 09:04
18:35 9 Baltimore Orioles - Cleveland Indians 2.03 1.72
01:05 93 Florida Marlins - Los Angeles Dodgers 2.00 1.75
01:05 94 Atlanta Braves - San Diego Padres 1.75 2.00
01:10 95 Cincinnati Reds - Houston Astros 2.05 1.70
02:05 96 Milwaukee Brewers - Washington Nationals 1.37 2.95
03:40 98 Arizona Diamondbacks - Philadelphia Phillies 1.86 1.89
04:15 99 San Francisco Giants - New York Mets 1.88 1.87

godspicks
07-05-07, 17:22
Monday, May 07, 2007



MLB
BALTIMORE (TRACHSEL +114) Cleveland (Carmona)

Going against favorites of 125-175 with a bullpen WHIP of 1.350 or better on the year with a pitcher who gave up two or fewer earned runs in each of his last two outings is +109.4 units.

The home team is a sensational 6-0 in Trachsel’s starts. His home ERA is 1.46 with an even better .973 WHIP. True Carmona is pitching well, but there is a reason the not-exactly-overloaded-with-pitchers Tribe sent him to the minors earlier this year.

Well we know. He has allowed four dingers and struck out just nine. It catches up to him today.

[fin]juuso
07-05-07, 17:45
MLB YTD 18W-11L-1P +39.27 units

A bit unlucky yesterday with Chad Cordero blowing the save for the Nationals. That's normal. Let's move on.


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Florida Marlins

Marlins 2.12 (WSEX) 4 units

I think theres some value on Marlins here as a small home dog. Dodgers' Brad Penny has started the season well and many people are jumpin on the bandwagon. He is good, but i personally think he is probably overvalued right now as he is only slightly above average, 6 inning per game - career 4.0 ERA type of pitcher. His style suits well to Dodger Stadium where he is usually very capable. However, He has always been a less effective road starter.

Marlins' Ricky Nolasco is talanted young pitchers. He had decent rookie season last year, with the usual rookie volatility, but was sharp at home most of the time. He hasn't yet pitched much this season due to small injury, but Handled the Mets at Shea quite impressively last time out. He may very well match or outdo the performance of Penny here, and if he does, the Marlins should be in a good position to win the game.

Florida is a decent home team and has been a productive lineup. They are currently at the top of National League in power categories, slugging percentage and OPS and have hit excellent 36 homers thru first 30 games. Los Angeles has a good lineup as well, but their hitting game has been quite a bit weaker so far. The Dodgers have slightly better bullpen, but that is not likely to make a significant difference today. This line should not be more than pick'em at most imo, making the Fish worth a shot here.



Cleveland Indians @ Baltimore Orioles

Indians Team Total over 5 @ 1.935 (Pinnacle) 5 units


I think this one is quite a decent bet and has some value. The Indians lineup can be very productive often and are one of the most dangerous teams in the league against right handed pitching. They are likely to get some runs off of Steve Trachsel. Trachsel has been surprisingly good so far, but has probably overachieved a bit as his stuff is quite mediocre. While Baltimore bullpen is good, 5+ runs should be very possible here.

Satyr
07-05-07, 23:40
MLB 2007: 40 W-1V-28 L +64.97 units


Giants (Zito) (1.89 @ Pinnacle) 7 units

I actually hoped the Mets will sweep Arizona so I could pound the Giants here. But nevermind, I still like it. The Mets are still one of the most potent lineups in baseball, but I'm counting on them to slow down tonight, as they will be up against Barry Zito (2-3, 3.52 ERA), who still didn't get the run support he had hoped for when he joined the Giants, but don't be fooled by the 2-3 record, Zito's recent starts were dominant.
I think the Giants will shake off the mediocre week and have a strong start into this one by beating the Mets.
Even more if we know that Barry Bonds will be in the lineup after missing last night, and Beltran has leg problems right now and is questionable (Alou will be fresh off the DL tonight).
I'm not a big fan of Oliver Perez (3-2, 3.41 ERA), and I'm keen to think he's been pitching over his head and might regress a bit, especially on the road, and against the Giants, team he went 0-3, 6.60 ERA so far in his career, even though this number isn't that relevant since he hasn't faced them since 2005.


Atlanta - San Diego over 9 (2.04 @ Pinnacle) 4 units

Both pitchers have been hit pretty hard by their tonight's opposition, and even though I rarely take the over in NL, I will do it tonight.
I know it probably isn't the best idea to play the over with San Diego involved, but I love how they've been hitting lefties, especially on the road, and the Braves roster is hitting .378 against Young.
I love how these two teams have played lately and I think we'll see some runs on the board tonight.