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hhmoll
05-05-07, 07:27
Odds from 10bet

05/05 Chicago Cubs(R. Hill) 1.455
18:05 Washington Nationals(J. Patterson) 2.910

05/05 St Louis Cardinals(K. Wells) 1.775 -1.5 2.600 O 9 1.962
18:10 Houston Astros(W. Williams) 2.140 +1.5 1.575 U 9 1.909

05/05 San Francisco Giants(N. Lowry) 1.901 -1.5 2.850 O 9 1.935
20:55 Philadelphia Phillies(J. Lieber) 1.980 +1.5 1.503 U 9 1.935

05/05 LAA Angels(J. Lackey) 1.654 -1.5 2.460 O 8 2.040
20:55 Chicago White Sox(J. Garland) 2.350 +1.5 1.625 U 8 1.847

05/05 New York Yankees(C. Wang) 1.366 -1.5 1.769 O 10.5 1.813
20:55 Seattle Mariners(Jef. Weaver) 3.340 +1.5 2.160 U 10.5 2.090

06/05 Atlanta Braves(T. Hudson) 1.654 -1.5 2.450 O 8.5 1.990
00:05 Los Angeles Dodgers(D. Lowe) 2.350 +1.5 1.629 U 8.5 1.885

06/05 Milwaukee Brewers(J. Suppan) 1.685 -1.5 2.540 O 8 1.935
00:05 Pittsburgh Pirates(Z. Duke) 2.280 +1.5 1.595 U 8 1.935

06/05 Florida Marlins(S. Mitre) 1.885 -1.5 2.780 O 9.5 2.040
00:05 San Diego Padres(D. Wells) 2.000 +1.5 1.521 U 9.5 1.847

06/05 Baltimore Orioles(D. Cabrera) 2.020 +1.5 1.633 O 9.5 2.040
00:05 Cleveland Indians(J. Sowers) 1.862 -1.5 2.440 U 9.5 1.847

06/05 Cincinnati Reds(A. Harang) 1.685 -1.5 2.550 O 9 2.090
00:10 Colorado Rockies(A. Cook) 2.280 +1.5 1.592 U 9 1.813

06/05 Kansas City Royals(O. Perez) 2.110 +1.5 1.680 O 9.5 1.885
00:10 Detroit Tigers(M. Maroth) 1.794 -1.5 2.330 U 9.5 1.990

06/05 Minnesota Twins(JO. Santana) 1.437 -1.5 1.893 O 8.5 2.090
00:10 Boston Red Sox(J. Tavarez) 2.980 +1.5 1.980 U 8.5 1.813

06/05 Tampa Bay Devil Rays(S. Kazmir) 1.704 -1.5 2.550 O 8.5 1.935
00:10 Oakland Athletics(J. Kennedy) 2.250 +1.5 1.592 U 8.5 1.935

06/05 Texas Rangers(V. Padilla) 2.430 +1.5 1.870 O 9.5 2.090
01:05 Toronto Blue Jays(R. Halladay) 1.617 -1.5 2.010 U 9.5 1.813

godspicks
05-05-07, 16:24
Saturday, May 05, 2007


MLB
DETROIT (MAROTH -123) Kansas City (Perez)

Detroit has won five straight. They are 16-5 in Kansas City including 12-1 the last two years. KC is 4-8 their last 12 and 9-20 their last 29 but getting a small number from the peaking AL Champs.

Detroit is 5-0 with Maroth +5.9 units. Going back to last year, they’ve won eight straight starts with him.

"bombshell" promo deleted. Open a topic on TipsWebsites section for such purposes/Satyr.

SportsClinic
05-05-07, 20:05
Saturday is the day my friends to make some $$$. I have 2 solid plays for tonite. Without waiting lets get to my 3 plays.

S.F. vs Philly

Lets see here now, Noah Lowry is 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA in 3 career starts against the Phillies. Ok so its because of his era that he can't beat the phillys, I dont know about that. Noah has pitched great in 31 innings combined this year. he does have an ok Era at 3.68. Last 3 games he has pitched good. Jon Lieber On the other hand has pitched even better than Noah. 21 plus innings, era at 2.57 is not to shabby at all. But we all know that there is always a line sometimes when it comes to pitching in ball parks. Jon as we see is 0-2 with a 6.57 ERA in two lifetime starts at AT&T Park. But I feel this year will be a good one for him and his control. I see this game being close so I will rest with my pick:
UNDER 9.5 1.85 7 Unit play.


Toronto vs Texas

My struggling TO Blue Jays,..... What can go wrong with injurys early in this season, Toronto is looking to get back into the swing of things. I really think that 4 losses in a row has really Pissed of TO. the clubhouse will be defenantly up and at em this game. Roy Halladay with a steady ERA every year, has nothing to prove. Last game was a gem and this won he will bag for the team and us. I am taking:

Toronto Win 1.65 9 Unit play.

HAVE a GREAT DAY!!

[fin]juuso
05-05-07, 20:11
MLB YTD 17W-8L-1P +46.43 units


Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers

Rangers @ 2.46 (Pinnacle) 4 units


I think there's some good value in Texas as a sizeable home underdog here. They have been underachieving early and while their lineup is not quite as strong as last year, it's still good and clearly above average. Despite some early season foes, Texas' starter Vicente Padilla is good and very capable pitcher. He will likely bounce back with some good outings soon. Toronto starter Roy Halladay is an elite pitcher and one of the best in the league. He is always capable of a great game, but does have a mediocre outings now and then and Texas is a team that has given him a lot of trouble in the past. There are few bats in the current lineup that has hit well against him and he has high career ERA pitching at the Ameriquest Field. Toronto has a bit better lineup, but not significantly vs. right handed pitching and Texas has the edges in bullpen and the home field. Current odds are definitely worth a bet here imo.



New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Mets team total under 4 @ 1.943 (Pinnacle) 5 units


The Mets have a very good lineup but i do find some decent value in the under 4 team total bet with Brandon Webb going for the D-Backs. Sinkerballer Webb is one of the most consistent performers in the league and can neutralize most of the power/homerun numbers with his extreme groundball ratio. He is usually good for 7+ innings, reducing the bullpen factor. However, If webb can come forth with his usual dominant outing, the backend of Zona bullpen is decent and is likely to be good enough for the last 1-2 innings. Webb has some very good career numbers against most of the guys in the current Mets lineup. Sure, Mets can be dangerous, but they would need 5 for this bet to lose which is quite a lot against Webb. I like this one.

[fin]juuso
05-05-07, 20:19
Good Luck SportsClinic!

I see we're on opposite sides in the Toronto/Texas game. At least one of us will be cashing in :)

Satyr
05-05-07, 20:48
Excellent night, 2/2, let's try to keep it going. Note I haven't updated the record but will do it tonight.

Early play, starting in a few hours (I'll publish my other bets later on, stay tuned immense value bet coming up).

Yankees (Wang) (-2/adjusted runline) (1.90 @ Pinnacle) 5 units

This game only appears to be easy to cap, as the Yanks are coming off a 11-15 embarrassment last night, as Seattle cruised through the Yankee stadium, tonight the Mariners will be sending out a pitcher who really doesn't belong in the majors any more. Jeff Weaver's numbers are no coincidence. 0-4, 18.26 ERA, in all honesty, this could've been even worse. He's just awful, no command, forcing his fastball all the time, he's just too painful to watch.
I should know, as a Mariner fan, I couldn't believe my ears when I heard they're getting him, probably some Hargrove connection, what else.
My first thought here was the over, both offenses in a solid run, both pitchers quite shaky this year (Wang returned from injury not long ago, Weaver doesn't have an excuse to be in any team's rotation), but then I thought, knowing how Seattle usually responds after big wins, they might suffer an offensive letdown today, perhaps they just fired away last night and if Wang manages to put together a solid outing, which is expected, after all he's not "just off the DL" any more, and these are the M's bats which are solid, but coming from a game they stepped up big in.

I could see a lot of over backers here, which is natural after all, many fundamentals pointing that way, also even more Yankee backers (ML & RL) I'm thinking if Yanks are going to win this one by making a statement, this could be anything from a 6-0, 9-2 or 11-4 win.
If they win, I just don't see a 1 run win here, it should be way more. In case Seattle manage to get to Wang early, that could be a problem, but I don't think how breaking Weaver down is a problem to be honest.

SportsClinic
05-05-07, 20:54
Thanx man good luck!!! Fin Jusso!! Saku Koivu is the man!!!

Satyr
05-05-07, 21:08
Thanx man good luck!!! Fin Jusso!! Saku Koivu is the man!!!

hi buddy, glad to see you're back in our homeland. I like your under pick in San Francisco, Bonds might not play btw.

GL.

SportsClinic
05-05-07, 21:14
Satyr bog !! long time no hear!! I have moved now permenantly in Split Croatia. I have been looking at your bets not bad . Nice to hear from u again . Keep in touch Milenko

protech
05-05-07, 22:26
Hm what do you think about Atlanta vs. Los Angeles ?
Braves is in good shape, they won two last matches, including one with Dodgers yesterday. Dodgers have problems with hitters.

"The NL West-leading Dodgers left 11 runners on base on Friday as they were blanked for the first time all season. Los Angeles has stranded 43 runners in its last four games, scoring just five runs in those contests."

Nothing is pointing for win Dodgers, contrary to braves. For me Atlanta should win.

My pick:
Atlanta win @1.65 8/10
Atlanta RL @2.38 3/10
under 8,5 @1.92 5/10

Any opinions?

Satyr
05-05-07, 23:37
adding:


Red Sox (Tavarez) (2.83 @ Pinnacle) 6 units

Take this bet action as I will, even though a pitching change is unlikely, you don't want to lose this bet if any of the pitchers don't start, as the pitching matchup is actually the biggest reason why the odds are this juicy, and basically the only thing going against our bet.
The thing is, the Red Sox are en fuego at the moment, and you just can't give us this kind of price and think it's ok. Their lineup is stacked by power hitters, they have a smart, patient lineup which has already proven they can get to Santana.
Don't get me wrong, Santana is an ace, and we know his best stuff comes as April fades away, but I just have to go against him.
He is "only" 3-2 this year, which backs up the theory of Twins not actually being on top of their game at the moment, their chemistry is sub par in some areas of the game, plus missing Cuddyer from the lineup won't do them any favors.
I'll tell you why this line is like this. Santana has NEVER lost three straight home starts, he is a killer 42-14 with a 2.98 ERA in 79 career starts at the Metrodome and went 17-0 in 24 consecutive starts there from Aug. 6, 2005-April 2, 2007. He has dropped back-to-back outings since then, however, allowing eight runs and 12 hits through 14 innings.
Opposing a more quiet lineup would be suicide, but the Red Sox are hot, they're 7-1 in last 8 road games.
Santana is 3-4 with a 3.55 ERA in 11 lifetime games against the Sox (8 starts) including eight starts.
Tavarez (1-2, 7.58 ERA), on the other side, still isn't a reliable SP. He however tends to keep composure until 4th or 5th, and that's perfectly fine, I'll take the Sox pen and bats over Minny's pen and bats ANY day of the week. Tavarez is 2-2 with a 5.26 ERA in 16 career games, including four starts, versus the Twins.
This one could be another dominant start for Santana, but knowing all the facts and situations here, I have to take a bite at these juicy odds.

Satyr
05-05-07, 23:50
Tigers (Maroth) (1.81 @ Pinnacle) 5 units
Over 10.5 (1.91 @ Pinnacle) 3 units

I know Maroth (2-0, 4.82 ERA) didn't do all that well in KC last year (understatement) (basically that's why I'm playing the over), even though he usually does, he already has 10 wins against KC in his career, which is the most against any team.
The Tigers are rolling right now, they love playing in Kansas and they're getting men back to the lineup: Shortstop Carlos Guillen (went 3-for-4 with two RBIs and scored a run last night) is batting .375 against the Royals this season and is 2-for-2 during his career when facing Odalis Perez (2-3, 6.91), who starts for Kansas City on Saturday.
Perez is definitely a weak pitcher, and I do think Tigers will roll in this one, the only thing I'm scared off here is Maroth letting in more than he should: DeJesus is batting .560 (14-for-25) with one homer and three doubles in his career versus Maroth, Brown has a .371 BA against Maroth in his career (27 AB).
Taking both the over and the Tigers accordingly, thinking about an 8-4 Tigers win.

Satyr
06-05-07, 00:09
I usually don't have this many posts in one thread, but since it's less than an hour (now) until the start (of the ones I posted just now), I had to add them that way rather than editing my initial post. It looks better edited, but bare with me tonight please.

Another one I'm adding:

Mets (Sosa) (2.26 @ Pinnacle) 4 units

The idea is, take the plus money whenever you can, backing teams like the Mets playing in the park they love playing (and they love playing in the desert of Arizona). Disregarding the pitching duel once again. Actually putting it aside, not really disregarding.
Brandon Webb is an ace, last year's Cy Young award winner in the NL.
Although Webb hardly resembled a reigning Cy Young winner at the start of the season, as he allowed 11 runs, 23 hits and 10 walks in 19 innings over his first three starts, his past three outings have been a complete turnaround - the right-hander has given up five runs, 17 hits and six walks in 23 innings, while going 1-0.
There is no denying that Sosa is just awful (3-11 with a 5.42 ERA in 45 games -13 starts - last season for Atlanta and St. Louis), he has improved a lot in Triple A this year (4-0, 1.13 ERA in five starts, striking out 29 in 32 innings), even though that may or may not be indicative, the Snakes bats are cold right now.
However, one stat never seizes to amaze me.
Webb has a 1.99 ERA against the Mets, but is only 1-5 against them.
The Mets have one of the best lineups in baseball and taking them at a dog price isn't something we can do very often, even if it is Jorge Sosa we're talking about.
Similar story to the Red Sox, meaning if Sosa gets this one to 5th with minimal damage (which is possible since Arizona aren't blazing right now), I'll take the Mets over anyone at this price.

Peter the Farmer
06-05-07, 09:01
Very good picks as always, why didnt play it myself this night ?
:idea: :idea: :oops: :oops: :idea: :idea:

GermanHunter
06-05-07, 09:27
thanks again

fgenez2
06-05-07, 11:07
All picks where very good and very profitable unfortunately I also followed bad picks, so the total for yesterday is -9U... :( It 'd be like -25U without Satyr, finjuuso, and godspicks's tips :)
Well done again, guys!