View Full Version : MLB 23.04.2007
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
I don't see the Toronto Blue Jays scoring many runs. That's because the Boston Red Sox will use starting pitcher Tim Wakefield. Tim Wakefield has pitched great this season (1.35 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays will find it hard to gets hits and runs.
As for the Boston Red Sox, they will be able to score many runs. That's because the Toronto Blue Jays will use starting pitcher Tomo Ohka. Tomo Ohka struggled so far this season (0-2 with a 7.02 ERA), and things will not get any better for Tomo Ohka as the Boston Red Sox will score many runs tonight!
This one has all of the signs of a Boston Red Sox blowout victory!
Pick RS
Gb odds @1.5
Stake 7/10
Pick RS -1.5
Gb odds @1.98
Stake 5/10
GL
http://xs314.xs.to/xs314/07171/odds.JPG
Odds form expekt.
@ BA: 7W/6L, +11.50 units
Colorado Rockies @ NY Mets
6 units on Mets RL, 2.09 @ Pinnacle
Mets are quite a nobrainer, if you ask me. I am taking the runline as I expect the Mets to be extramotivated after yesterday's thrilling 9-6 loss vs the Braves. The Rockies lost 13 of the last 14 mettings on Shea Stadium, going 0-3 in 2006. Things won't be different today.
Mets will put young right hander John Maine (2-0, 1.93 ERA) on the mound. He continued his solid outings by taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Marlins last time around. Maine is holding opponents to a .136 batting average this year and should shine again, together with the best bullpen in MLB (1.76 ERA) facing a Rockies offense who is usually very shy away from home - just .221 average this season. Taylor Buchholz gets the ball for the guests. He makes his first start of the season after four relief appearances during 6.1 innings in which he allowed four runs. When with the Astros last year, Buchholz was knocked around for seven runs in five innings in his sole outing against the Mets. He will be in trouble tonight, too.
Detroit Tigers @ LA Angels
5 units on Angels ML, 1.71 @ Pinnacle
Pounding the Angels at home. They underachieved in their roadtrip, losing six in a row, with only six runs scored. Returning in Angel Stadium was the perfect cure. Also having Vlad Guerrero back, the Angels exploded for 21 runs and 37 hits, literally sweeping Seattle.
Jered Weaver (0-1, 4.50 ERA) had an impressive first start after returning from a biceps injury, but had one bad pitch which ruined it - a three-run homer from Bobby Crosby. Slowly, Weaver will turn to the same electric stuff he used us with last season, when he went 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 19 starts (5-1 with a 2.06 ERA in eight home starts). Tigers will start with a struggling Mike Maroth (2-0, 5.40 ERA). With 22 hits allowed over 16 2/3 innings, a .328 opposing batting average and just one start in which he has survived the sixth inning, I can't see how he will escape in one piece against some fired up Angels batters.
Good luck !
[fin]juuso
23-04-07, 18:07
MLB YTD 7W-5L +9.45 units
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Blue Jays 2.80 (Pinnacle) 4 units
Taking Jays as a quite big road dog today as i see solid value on them. Boston is more likely to win this one, but i don't think Toronto should be quite this big of an underdog.
Boston starter Tim Wakefield has really good numbers thru first 3 starts of the season, but it's clear he has overachieved. While he can be almost unhittable at best of times, he is inconsistent and his knuckleball style of pitching is quite erratic. He has had high degree of volatility during his career, alternating between good and bad games. Toronto starter Tomo Ohka has had rocky start for the season, but looked much better last time out. He has been pretty consistent ~4.0 ERA performer throughout his career. He is likely to pitch some good games soon enough, if not yet today. Ohka pitched for Red Sox in 1999-2000 and has a 3.95 career ERA at Fenway. It's been a while, but this is not an unknown park for him. Bullpen advantage goes to Red Sox especially with Jays closer B.J Ryan injured now, but there's still some capable hands in the Jays 'pen.
Toronto was just swept by the Orioles and has lost 5 games in a row. They've been a bit unlucky with the bats. Red Sox just swept Yankees in 3 games. Small letdown spot for them is possible here. Red Sox have hit better early season, but Toronto has about equal lineup and has power throughout the order. It's a lineup that shouldn't be underestimated this season.
Investing 4 units on this one as Jays are worth a shot here in my opinion.
Monday, April 23, 2007
MLB
TAMPA (FOSSUM +158) NY Yankees (Igawa)
The Yanks are facing a serious letdown after getting swept by Boston. Going against favorites of 125-175 with a bullpen WHIP of 1.350 or better on the year with a pitcher who gave up two or fewer earned runs in each of his last two outings is +109.1 units.
Tampa fair well against southpaws with Ty Wiggington, Delmon Young and B.J. Upton. Igawa has allowed 3 HR in his three starts.
MLB 2007: 18 W-1V-11 L +35.75 units
Tough loss last night in TB - CLE game, I had the Rays ML and the over (10.5), Cleveland raced back in top 9th but managed 6 runs which nailed the score right where I didn't want it to stay, at 6-4.
I like several games here. Here it goes:
Angels (Weaver) 8 units (1.70 @ Pinnacle)
I just love this play. The Halos are getting their act back and their consistency of late is admirable, even though they faced mediocre Mariners. The Tigers are coming off a last gasp win against the White Sox, which enabled them to avoid the sweep, the Sox already had their brooms out before Marcus Thames launched a two run homer to tie the game in bottom 9th.
This is your classic "turn the tide" spot for the home team: The Angels scored 21 runs and pounded out 37 hits in the series after scoring a total of six runs during the six-game skid. I think they win this one and the game tomorrow, featuring Lackey and Bonderman.
Jered Weaver went 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 19 starts last season, but had to take the L in Oakland, allowing 4 runs in 6 innings of work.
Similar spot to what Santana was in last night, a dominant home pitcher returning home after a rocky road start. Rocky in terms of the result, apart from that Weaver was quite solid actually, but allowed a 3 run homer. On the other side, Mike Maroth gets the nod for the Tigers. Maroth (2-0, 5.40 ERA) had some solid stuff as well but I like Guerrero, Kotchman, Matthews and Anderson to feast off him tonight. As I said this has a lot to do with the spot, the Tigers are coming off huge series against the Sox, they're in a home-road switch and I think Maroth doesn't get the 3rd W tonight.
I expect Weaver to get back home fired up and carry his team to victory against a drained Tigers team.
Devil Rays (Fossum) (2.48 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
I'm not a big believer in sites showing consensus plays, but this time I think this isn't far from the truth. Apparently 71% are on the Yanks tonight, and even though I'm not a "fade the public" player, as I don't give much into such things, I like the situation a lot here.
Tampa Bay are coming off a solid game against the Tribe last night, again their bullpen screwed the win, after Shields controlled the game Brian Stokes allowed 4 runs in the 9th and TB fell in another late loss.
Casey Fossum is far from trustworthy, and unless in huge dog situations (this applies to the rule) I wouldn't back him. If this was Kazmir starting, I would nail the Rays at even money with higher stakes, now only 4 units on the home team.
The thing is, NYY are coming off a huge series against the Red Sox at Fenway, big rivalry going on there, and both teams, especially the ones in a road-road switch, are prone to letdown situations.
NYY will send out Kei Igawa (1-0, 6.06 ERA), who will try to help New York avoid its first four-game skid since June 8-11.
The left-hander gave up seven runs and eight hits in just five innings during his major league debut on April 7. In two starts since, he's pitched 11 1-3 innings and has yielded just five runs and eight hits. Fossum has improved as well compared to his first start (He gave up seven runs in 3 2-3 innings in his first start, but has allowed only five runs in 14 innings since then), and I see this one as a way more balanced game than the odds are suggesting. Yankee backers are paying for the name here, and they're forcing the issue with "NYY can't possibly lose 4 straight", laying a lot of chalk on a rookie pitcher. Furthermore, the Yanks had to use Pettitte last night as a reliever, they had a lot of their pen guys working and frankly I think this is a horrid spot to back the Yankees.
Just one more note, more of a trivial character: Yankees star Alex Rodriguez (12 HR, 31 RBI, .371 BA) batted .111 (3-for-27) in eight games at Tropicana Field last year.
My initial call was the over as well as TB, but the number is a tad big (10.5) and I won't risk it with both teams perhaps coming out a bit flat offensively after last night.
Marlins (RL) (2.55 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
I like the Marlins to come out blazing and make a statement after going 3-7 in last 10 games. They'll give the ball to Dontrelle Willis (3-1, 4.88 ERA), who is 3-0 with a 3.80 ERA in his last three starts against Atlanta. The Braves are 4-10 in last 14 against the Marlins in Miami, and this being a fierce division rivalry, I expect the home team to be fired up for this one. They're depleted with injuries, but they're coming together despite that fact, and I just like how this play reads situationally.
Atlanta will send out Kyle Davies (0-0, 4.50 ERA), who gave up four runs and six hits in 5 1-3 innings in an 8-6 win over the Chicago Cubs his last time out on Wednesday night, and is only 0-1 with a 5.87 ERA in one start and two relief appearances against Florida. I'm on the runline here for lesser stake.
Marlins (RL) (2.55 @ Pinnacle) 4 units
I like the Marlins to come out blazing and make a statement after going 3-7 in last 10 games. They'll give the ball to Dontrelle Willis (3-1, 4.88 ERA), who is 3-0 with a 3.80 ERA in his last three starts against Atlanta. The Braves are 4-10 in last 14 against the Marlins in Miami, and this being a fierce division rivalry, I expect the home team to be fired up for this one. They're depleted with injuries, but they're coming together despite that fact, and I just like how this play reads situationally.
Atlanta will send out Kyle Davies (0-0, 4.50 ERA), who gave up four runs and six hits in 5 1-3 innings in an 8-6 win over the Chicago Cubs his last time out on Wednesday night, and is only 0-1 with a 5.87 ERA in one start and two relief appearances against Florida. I'm on the runline here for lesser stake.
If you are mentioning that Willis is 3-0 and 3.80 ERA in last 3 starts against Atlanta, and that Kyle Davies gave up 4 runs in 5.1 innings in last start, you could also mention that Willis was 6-2 in last 2 years against Mets with ERA below 2.00, before hist last start when mets knocked him up like a whore, surrendering 10 hits and 8 runs (6 earned) in 5 innings, with some really bad pitch control, going over 100 pitches in those 5 innings.
Willis is that kind of pitcher - when it goes well - it goes well for some time. When he starts showing first signs of weakness - it goes really bad. His wife is in the hospital, she will give birth tonight to their son, so maybe baseball is not the first place on his mind. Ofcourse, he can't wait to be a father, he might dedicate this game to his son, bla bla, but after all - having a child is always HUGE thing and I know I would shake whole the time "did everything went well?"
On the other side, Florida is showing big run support in last 2 games (scoring 21 runs) and Mets have really powerfull lineup, but not that powerfull to hurt Willis as much as they did. He was really weak last start.
Maybe White Sox looks like a really good pick, odds are around 1.80, CWS has stronger lineup, they are better in every segment of game and they are sending Buehrle that had fantastic last start, cruising through 9 innings against Texas, not allowing a single hit! What do you think?
I really like Astros today with Sampson on the mound who won both of his starts on the road in pretty hard pitching matchups (Marquis an Harang). After 5 wins in a row Astors were defeated twice against Brewers in close affairs. Sampson has good numbers though he allowed two solo home runs. Indeed Astros don't hit good against RHP still they can harm Eaton who allowed 4 runs in 6 innings in his last start against Natioanls and he doesn't shows very confident performances. The fact is Astros are 15-5 in last 20 against Phillies also very good 12-5 on the road in last 17. Phillies are 1-6 ! in games one so far while Astros are 5-2. I give fair chances to Astros to pull victory here especially if match will go in to low scoring affair.
I believe more in scenario D-train for will bounce back after horrible performance for his standards then he will repeat another blow out. I didn’t know for that interesting fact his wife is in hospital to give a birth but I do also think he won’t even start at all if it would be so sure she will do it tonight. Still no bet.
Red Sox and Mets looks like clear RL wins but I have that strange feeling one of this two will go opposite still I’ll play both but they really look too fishy so low stakes.
Buehrle was perfect in his last start and it wouldn’t be anything strange if he repeats something similar as he owns Royals in his career.
How Yanks feel after sweep in Boston? Are they pissed enough to win this one. I’m not sure for that but I do think this match must it be high scoring affair. Lefties are on hard mission against NYY and Fossum won’t be exception.
To sum it up:
Astros to win 2,12 @ Pinnacle 4/10
Red Sox RL 2,03@ Pinnacle 3/10
NY Mets RL 1,97@10bet 3/10
CWS to win 1,81@ Pinnacle 4/10
Yankees-TB over 11 1,96@10bet 4/10
MLB: 5W-2L-2V, +13,55
@ bisti:
First of, I don't think I should have mentioned that Willis was solid against the Mets last year and they rocked him recently, that doesn't have anything to do with this game, and after all I'm not here to present all possible stats out there, that's why Yahoo, ESPN, Covers, and other sites exist. Even better if he has some "evening out" to do, similar to what Santana did yesterday.
I have to say I wasn't aware of his situation with his wife giving birth, thanks for pointing that out. I really don't know what to think of how that will affect him, because it depends on the person, some people crack under such situations and some are more fired up, I won't be pretentious and say that he belongs to the second group, I really have no clue how he'll react.
Buehrle had a solid game I agree, but I would lean only under here and perhaps KC, CHW coming off an emotional series against the Tigers, and perhaps it's a good letdown spot for them, if only KC weren't so inconsistent and their lineup weak, I would back them perhaps, but now it's only a lean.
And since I'm not a fan of unders in baseball, I'll keep off.
guys do you think NY METS ML is a safe bet? i mean at home they are 4 victories and 4 defeats, thats not really impressive
I don't think their chances of winning tonight would be better if they had 6-2 at home, you have to cap games individually.
Frankly I'm not a big fan of NYM tonight, I think there's a lot of action on them and I didn't like their stuff this weekend, while Colorado is still a big questionmark since I still haven't seen them play this season, so I won't force it.
GL.
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