View Full Version : Pick of the day 28/2

28-02-04, 00:15
Well the end of this month and this competition is fast aproaching so good luck all!

http://upl.mine.nu/uplfolders/upload3/sst.gif (http://www.soccerstatstracker.com)
Please support the competition by visiting our sponsor!

28-02-04, 00:17
My pick of the day:
Ipswich - Preston OVER 2.5 goals, (1.80 @ Pointbet)
BET LOST - 2:0 Tomor

My preview is here:

28-02-04, 03:13
Sint Truiden – Charleroi (+0.5) 2, 2.06 @ Gamebookers
PICK WON - 1:2 Tomor

Backing Charleroi this year has mostly payed off.They are a much better team with arrival of a few players in the january market, but seems like bookies don’t care about it and are constantly underestimating them.This time Gamebookers really surprised me with their generous offer, regarding that St Truiden isn’t so dangerous at home (4-4-3) as he was last couple of years, this is a pure value.Of course Charleroi’s score away (1-4-7), and their position on the table made odds compilers do their job that way, but that isn’t the same team any more.Adding that Charleroi has more to fight for as they’re still in the relegation zone and St Truiden is in the middle of table with small chances of reaching the spot for euro-competitions, we get another ‘for’.Charleroi has no injury problems, St Truiden without suspended Vrancken and De Ceulaer.

28-02-04, 04:55
Leicester- Wolverhampton Over 2.5 @1.95 Bet365
PICK LOST - 0:0 Tomor

One of my two lost bets this month was Leicester-Bolton Over 2.5, couple weeks ago. It was 1:1 after 25 minutes, and after 90 minutes I was realy mad. So, it's payback time.

:arrow: First - nice odds. I give about 70% for over, 20% for under and 10% for a draw. (I mean, two goals and one woodwork...) Seriously, I wonder why some of the bookies have bigger odds for over here. (...I hope, I will never find out...).

:arrow: We have Leicester, team which conceded most goals at home (23), and Wolves, usually coming home with bus full of them. (30, only Leeds is worse). Overall in the league, Leicester conceded 1.96 goal per match, and Wolves only twice with clean sheet in away games.

:arrow: Yes, Wolves scoring every second year in away matches (only 7 goals so far), but I think this is their chance for improving, against the worst home defence in the league.

:arrow: For Leicester this is the chance for escape against direct relegation concurent, and for Wolves one of the rare away games where they can seek for three points.

:arrow: Like I've said for Leicester-Bolton game, draw will not satisfied neither team. Ok, yes..it was 1:1, but did you have seen their faces after the game?

:arrow: And last game between these two? Wow, admirers of live betting for sure have to say something about it! Wolves - Leicester: 0:3 HT, 4:3 FT!

And don't ask me why I bolded this text. I guess, it just makes me more self-confident in the pick.

Good Luck!

28-02-04, 05:09
arttex Posted: Sat Feb 28, 2004 5:55 am Post subject:
Zalaegerszeg - MFC Pécs 1 @2.00 Centrebet

In Hungary there won't be any game this weekend, they are all postponed.

28-02-04, 05:37
Ok, thanks varganya, I will delete this, and looking for the other one. By the way, what you think about Zalaegerszeg in the second part of the season?

28-02-04, 06:54
"Lucky" me... I had to be at work since early morning, so what else can i do instead of "betting studies"? So, good morning and here's my 9th pick of the day for February:

Iraklis-Panionios - 1 - 1.85 @ William Hill
PICK LOST - 0:3 Tomor

Both teams r going to that game with missing players. The difference is the number of them and the impact they have at their squads... Iraklis will miss Machlas who's the first goalscorer of the team this year due to suspension, but with the likes of Ederson, Miecel and the youngster Kapetanos, who's all very capable i cannot see that there will be big problem. Key defender Katsiambis is injured, but there r plenty of players to cover his absense. Midfielder Kucharski is long term injured but he has lost his place at first 11 anyway, midfielder Muratti is suspended but he has missed many games recently (as far as i am concerned) because of injury. Yesterday the coach anounced that "u will see the most attacking Iraklis of the season" and i can understand that since the visitors have so many problems.

Panionios will be missing influential argentinian midfielder Pino, the striker Klimek, the key defenders Smiljanic, Giannopoulos, the new transfer Katsiaros and two youngsters who could help the team go to Salonica with 18 players. Now they have only 16 and the key defender Vlcek comes from injury and will be in first squad because someone has to be there! As for the bench, there r four youngsters - only one is really good and able to help - but i guess the coach shouldn't bother cause they should be losing from first half with a difference.

That was all, 1.85 is great for all those who have accounts at Will Hill and 1.80 at Interwetten for the "over" seems ok, although Iraklis might score just two and concede none.

P.S.: I apologise for any misspelling of foreign names ;).

Good luck.

28-02-04, 07:56
Pick Number 8 (up to now 4/7 +35)

Litex Lovech - CSKA Sofia 2 @2.55 BetAndWin

Match from Bulgarian Premier League. This is the derby of this round and it will be very interesting due to some reasons.
The coach of CSKA is the former coach of Litex Ferario Spasov, and he knows very well the tactics of Lovech side, and now he will find ways to beat the opponent.
CSKA Sofia hasn't win in Lovech from the moment Litex promoted from the lower division. Now the both squads are very good and well completed. CSKA has very good attackers and midfielders. They are playing with the idea: "The opponent can score 3, but we will score 4".
For the home side will have two big missings - the national goalkeeper Zdravko Zdravkov, and the central defender Rosen Kirilov, who is also in the national team.
CSKA will play with 2 attackers, and two attackeing-wings - Emil Gargorov and the new player Amiran Mudjiri. This will strengthen more the attacking phase.
Litex has a lot of new transfers, but they haven't adjusted yet.

28-02-04, 08:09
This is my last POTD in this month.

So,now I have to write some info about this match,missing players,form of the clubs,last meetings etc,etc.
In this case I dont do that cause even birds knows that Nottingham dont win in last(who counts more)games.This is last chance for them IMO.Bradford really poor away record 3-3-10.I dont know what to say about this match anymore.If they lose next year we can see them playing vs Sheffield,Rushden or Blackpool.

Notthingam-Bradford ht-ft 1-1 2,50@Expekt

P.S. I lost lot of cash betting on Nottingham and like my friend Arttex said its payback time. :wink:

28-02-04, 09:10
Hehe, my countrymen just do not let me to finish the competition and take my 10th pick. Firstly I wanted to take Liverpool to win with 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0, but smagdanoz was faster. Now Filipo took the pick I wanted.
Filipo, good luck with your play.
Want to add few thoughts. Rosen Kirilov will play and will be in starting eleven certainty. But it is the same with Emil Gargorov - best CSKA's player. He is fit and will be away team's heart in this game.
Litex is very good team, no dispute here. But with the changes after the winter break they are no performing well, despite the 2 wins taken. CSKA play good football and after the unlucky lost 2 points (3-3 away first round after the break) they are in must-win situation. CSKA is the more ambitious team. This is key match for them. If champions win here they can bravely look for 2nd consecutive title. Until the match with the main rival Levski they will have several games against not so classy teams and will add lots of points in their assets.

I can recommend everybody to take the away win here. You can place and draw-cover bet. I really don't see Litex to win this match.
Probable scores: 1-2, 0-1, 1-1


What a misfortune it was... Lovech didn't perform good in their first 2 matches, despite they won. But today they were quite different team and made their best match for the second half of the season. Best CSKA's player, the heart of the team, played awful. Not only this, but he missed and penalty kick. Also CSKA hit the post twice. Today the luck definitely was not with the. Looked like someone have cursed them.
The match started with good speed play and both team had some goal chances. But CSKA missed theirs and Lovech scored. With the start of the second half CSKA began constant attacks, one after another. But Lady Luck was not on our side today. As I said CSKA even missed penalty kick and hit the post bar.
The missed penalty finally broke off psychically CSKA's players and all hope died.

28-02-04, 09:33
Ok, Pick no9: Manchester City vs Chelsea pick Chelsea 2/2(HT/FT)@2.8 GB(2.5 for this competition)

After a lucky match aT CL with Stuttgart, Chelsea back in Premier League with a team who play better away.
Last 2 matches home:
Manchester City Birmingham City 0-0
Manchester City Blackburn Rovers 1-1
Portsmouth Chelsea London FC 0:2
Blackburn Rovers Chelsea London FC 2:3
Manchester City defender Daniel van Buyten will return to the side after a spell out with a groin injuryand midfielders Joey Barton and Paul Bosvelt are available again after completing their suspensions.
Chelsea will welcome back Adrian Mutu after the Romanian striker missed this week's Champions League match with a thigh injury.
Damien Duff could start his first game in 2004 in Premier League.
From BBC:
Man City (from): James, Dunne, Distin, van Buyten, Tarnat, Wright-Phillips, McManaman, Sinclair, Sibierski, Barton, Bosvelt, Macken, Fowler, Arason, Jihai, Negouai, Jordan, Elliott, McCarthy.

Chelsea (from): Cudicini, Johnson, Terry, Desailly, Gallas, Melchiot, Bridge, Lampard, Makelele, Geremi, Parker, Gronkjaer, Cole, Duff, Hasselbaink, Gudjohnsen, Crespo, Mutu, Sullivan, Ambrosio.
14. Manchester City 26 6 9 11 36:38 27 (home)
4. Chelsea London FC 10 6 1 3 17:9 19 (away)
Manchester City Chelsea London FC 0:3 2002
Manchester City Chelsea London FC 1:2 2001
Manchester City Chelsea London FC 0:1 1995
Manchester City Chelsea London FC 1:2 1995

If Chelsea want win this game then will must attack in the 1 min.
GL to ALL!!

28-02-04, 09:54
My pick of the day:
Ipswich - Preston OVER 2.5 goals, (1.80 @ Pointbet)

My preview is here:

He-he, good luck to you my friend, this is my favourite POD !!! I've posted my opinion since yesterday on it, in the relevant Div.1 thread, I'm sure you've seen it. The only way this pick can go sour, I feel, is if the game goes X2 !!! Meaning, that if Preston manage to get one of their usual good away results, it might be with a small score (0-1 or 1-1 for example). Overall, this has better than 75% for me...

Cheers 8)

28-02-04, 09:56
Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen 1 @ 2.40 Interwetten
Hamburger SV - Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 WON


Maple Leafs
28-02-04, 10:05
Mallorca- Athletic Madrid 0-0 level ----> 2 @ 2,15 Gamebookers

Mallorca will play today (only 2 days after their UEFA game in Russia).
So big journey even if they won.
I never seen that, only 2 days between two games.
In France it is impossible, i don't know for the other countries.
I am sure they will be tired and not really motivate for fighting in Spanish Liga.
Mallorca haven't won at home since 5 games, Athletico haven't won away since 7 games.
It seems to be a draw... So for the secure take level 0:0

28-02-04, 10:08
February stats: 3/9 – 305 :oops: :oops:

I hope I can finish the month with wining pick to dig myself from very red numbers down there in the table. I'm hoping for better March. If nothing else it's my birthday's month, so it has to be better… :wink:

HSV – Bayer Leverkusen – over 2.5 goals @ 1.83 (Pinnacle)
PICK WON - 3:1 Tomor

Not much to say about that one. Both teams are playing attacking football with quite a lot of goals (scored and received). Leverkusen had played 14 overs and HSV 11 (their last three matches were under!) in 21 matches. HSV at home scores 1.7 and receives 1.3 goals per match and Leverkusen scores 1.55 and receives 1.18 goals in away matches.
The first match in September in Leverkusen finished 1:0 and I doubt these two can play another low scoring match today. I lost last two bets on over with HSV involved and now I hope the third time it will be lucky!

Good luck! :wink:

28-02-04, 10:16
Mallorca- Athletic Madrid 0-0 level ----> 2 @ 2,15 Gamebookers

Mallorca will play today (only 2 days after their UEFA game in Russia).
So big journey even if they won.
I never seen that, only 2 days between two games.
In France it is impossible, i don't know for the other countries.
I am sure they will be tired and not really motivate for fighting in Spanish Liga.
Mallorca haven't won at home since 5 games, Athletico haven't won away since 7 games.
It seems to be a draw... So for the secure take level 0:0
MALLORCA : ATLETICO is a sunday's match.

Maple Leafs
28-02-04, 10:20
So, they move the game. Yesterday i was on the Spanish website federation and the game was still today.

28-02-04, 11:12
Since I was pretty busy in last two days I haven't done really deep search through all football matches played today across Europe. I only checked major leagues, which are on programme for several weeks (I skipped leagues where spring part started in last couple of weeks, I want to see some trends/form first). My favorite Bundesliga looks pretty tough this week (I only like Gladbach, but it's too risky to make it a POTD). So, there is a imo safer pick from French league...

Nantes - Strasbourg (0:3/4) :arrow: 1 :arrow: 1.95@Bet365

LOST (1-1) with 93' goal from Strasbourg. I can't remember when I was so pissed off because of lost bet. Nantes could clinch a victory in several occasions, but they missed some nice counterattack opportunities. I was watching the match and I just had a bad feeling they will concede late goal, too late to do anything after that.... This match was a perfect example how thin is the line between winning and losing bet. If Nantes players were just a bit more concentrated, it could be whole bet won. But now whole bet is lost... :cry: :evil:

If I was statistic freak my only explanation would be that extremly big percentage of Saturday afternoon French games end with home win. But, there is also big difference in present shape and form of those teams. Nantes plays solid in last weeks, in last 5 they have 3-3-1. Last week they snatched a draw at Velodrome against strong home team Marseille. They are strong at home too, with 7-2-3 so far. They don't have any impotrant absenties for this match.

After very good autumn part, Strasbourg sold Danijel Ljuboja to PSG and things started to look bad for them. Niang was also on ANC duty with Senegal, midfielder motor Le Pen got injured... and Strasbourg collected only 4 point from last 6 games (1-1-4). They haven't scored in last two games, they convincingly lost last home game to Sochaux. And they are overall bad guests (1-4-7).

All in all, Nantes should win this game. Odds on home win in fixed odds have dropped under 1.70, so I prefer -3/4 handicap at better price.

Good luck!

28-02-04, 11:24
RANK [???]================================================== ============================
RHL 54th round.
TORPEDO - AMUR Khabarovsk - Over 4,5 GOALS @ 2,15 BY G'BOOKERS.
LOST [1-3] .....several breakaways, good chances - everything but not the 5th goal. :cry:
Not much to be said about this one - both teams are relegated and are not fighting for anything. In recent games both were playing free-scoring hockey, creating chances themselves and letting do it to an opposite side. I don't think anything will change today. And this means it's a good chance for an over.

28-02-04, 12:18
VfB Stuttgart v Schalke 04 x * 2.5 *
(you can find nicer odds anywhere from A to Z)
WON as 0-0 FT

I do not watch any Bundesleague games but as happend to be Wednesday's CL game of Stuttgart -Chelsea gave me some thoughts.

Stuttgart played neat, but cannot find the strikers with the ball. Schalke 04 won their last 4 away games in row.No matter who they play...though Werder Bremen got away with a draw last week.

Cl games a week ahead i guess Stuttgart will give all today.
What should it be enough for?
I guess Schalke 04 won't make it 5 in a row, and certanly deed to be improve on draws :lol: ...

good luck

28-02-04, 13:20
Good afternoon !!!

So far, up to (and including) Friday 27/2 : +273 points, 6/8 picks

My pick of the day for Saturday is from the Greek Div.1 :

AEK Athens v Aris Salonica..................................... :arrow: OVER 2.5 goals ....................................1.65 at Interwetten

Well, taurus may have grabbed :D my POD today but in the end all might be for the best : the weather news both in England and in continental Europe are bad today, and I wouldn't bet on anything (esp. an OVER option) with high confidence. Besides, I'm on a great streak myself and, statistically, that's an oddity !!! :lol: Now that you've all been warned, let me say that this pick is the obvious choice for me today : assuming all those Greek tipsters taking AEK (with different lines, too) are correct, AEK should win today... If that happens, this should be an easy OVER, particularly if Tsartas returns to the lineup and contributes offensively (regretably, he also contributes offensively to the opposing team too whenever he plays, since his team is defending with a man less in midfield, but that's good for our bet) !!! Hard pressed by the "environment" (i.e. the same idiotic fans who're running AEK and who got rid of coach Bajevic like as if they were the owners, making decisions) inexperienced coach Dumitreskou may opt to field Tsartas today... To help our pick, we got the absence of important defender Koltsidas for Aris today, as well as the presence of (good but rusty) third-string goalie Lyberopoulos for AEK. Obviously, if Aris too gets to score a goal, our chances for winning this bet are enormously enhanced.

I could go on with stats forever here, but suffice it to say this fixture has gone one way (home win) for the last 12 straight years ! Most of them have been blowouts/overs, including the last 3 years in a row: 3-1, 4-2, 3-0 !!! This time the game will be played in "neutral" venue (but AEK is used to playing there by now) and without spectators. Logic dictates that the lack of AEK fans makes this riskier, but with this year's AEK you never know : one might argue that without those idiots pressuring them from the stands, AEK players may perform slightly better ! :idea: The latest losses for AEK were unders, and if Aris gets a result here (0-1, 0-0, 1-1) we're likely to lose this bet too... On the other hand, Aris has lost 12 games so far this year and, of these losses, 8 (66%) were overs !!! That's no coincidence... Overall AEK played 13/21 overs so far and Aris 12/21. Odds are barely acceptable, I know, but with that kind of weather in Europre today I'm not touching anything there... Besides, I'm not greedy, as I said I'm not gonna shoot 2.50+ just in order to win this competition. There's always time for that, I'm planning to be around for a long time to come !!! :lol: :lol: :lol:

Good luck to all 8)

PICK LOST (1-0) He-he, my streak was a bit too long to hold up... Anyway, AEK was resqued with an injury-time (!) header from a defender called KOFFIE Amponsah !!! :lol: :lol: :lol: How's that for a coincidence ???

28-02-04, 13:48
just to end the comp will i send my pick

i could not edn the last 2 months..

today my 9th pick. and tomorrows pick will be BESIKTAS - ULKER win. I did send my pick to TOMOR , he will send it for me as i can maybe not be online ...


Twente v AZ Alkmaar

Take ALKMAAR @3.25 -> @2.50 for the comp @ANY BOOKIE..
PICK LOST - 4:1 Tomor

Alkmaar ended a surprising 0-0 last week. Easy scoiring team like them to end 0-0 was a surprise. Twente with same result last week.
I thought to get odds @2.60 for awaywin, but after checking the odds did i see these odds @3.25 @gb and i'm sure there are higher odds avaliable...

***305; take the AWAYWIN... Not the X2 as i don't see alkmaar to end again with a draw here...

28-02-04, 15:24
Golden state vs Chicago Bull tonight
PICK LOST - 81:87 Tomor

Ok books have 50/50 the propabilities for two teams here. But I can sse a serious mistake! No sense. Looser Bull's team can win Golden State which is a much better team and even when loses from better teams that happens very very difficult? I do not think so. Bulls is in a downtrend and manages lot of times to loose with many points. On the other hand Golden State is (25-32), Bulls (16-42) last ten is (5-5)for Warriors and (3-7) for Bulls. In their last meeting Golden State won with 20 points. This is going happen again .

My pick : Golden State (-5) @ 2.4 sportingbet

28-02-04, 19:54
Pick no9 4/8 -58

Sporting-Maritimo hc 0:1 1/4 1 2.00 Gamebookers
PICK 1/2 LOST - 1:0 Tomor

Sporting continues the battle for 2nd place of next season's CHL and tonight they have the chance to take the revenge of first round defeat.Maritimo won 2-1 in oct 2nd and that was the last Sporting defeat in the league.
Sporting will miss Jorge and Silva but welcomes F Rochemback.
Maritimo will miss the important defender Van der Gaag and forward Danny.
1998/99 2-0
1999/00 4-2
2000/01 1-0
2001/02 4-0
2002/03 2-0

Sporting won at home 5 games against the handicap and lost 6 but after 2 games against Porto and Moreirense its time for an easy win...

28-02-04, 22:19
This is my last pick in this month competition. After great January I started badly on February and was in a big hole. Still with this last pick I can get on the plus side this month. This pick, as I was too late with my main Miami bet, will be from Canadian WHL hockey league:

Seattle Thunderbirds - Vancouver Giants 2 Odds: 2,35 at Centrebet


We have here two teams that are playing entertaining hockey worrying more about offense than defense. But Seattle doesn't like playing at home and Vancouver play even more freely on the road. Vancouver is an in-form team winning 5 of last 6 games and this is their 5 straight road game, where they are 3W-1D-0L. They already showed great hockey on this trip winning in Everett with one of best defensive lines and then two times with Prince George, which also is more offensive oriented. They have great offense right now and with consistently bad Seattle defense they should score at least 4 goals. They also improved much on defense and with recent Seattle scoring woes they shouldn't concede more than 2 goals.

Good Luck.