View Full Version : Spain Primera Divizion 16-17.12.2006
aleksandar83
12-12-06, 22:51
La Coruna - Athletic Bilbao 1.85 3.20 3.80
Mallorca - Santander 2.10 3.05 3.10
Zaragoza - Valencia 2.35 2.95 2.85
Levante -Celta 2.50 2.95 2.65
Recreativo H. - Sevilla 2.90 3.00 2.25
R. Sociedad - Gimnastic 2.00 3.10 3.30
Villarreal - Osasuna 1.75 3.30 4.10
Espanyol - Real Madrid 4.10 3.30 1.75
Atl. Madrid - Getafe 1.80 3.20 4.00
thewaytozion
14-12-06, 18:47
Espanyol – Real Madrid
Espanyol is playing crazy this season. Didn’t lost a match since 10 games and won 3 out of the last 4 games (beating Sevilla and Atlético).
Real Madrid lost last week against Sevilla. Trouble in Madrid, because vice-president Mendoza sayed good bye to real madrid on Tuesday. Also Juan Carlos Sánchez went on Tuesday.
Calculating the estimations for this match, it is a nice value on espanyol and also a little bit confidence on betting on espanyol these days. Also according to the h2hs of the last 5 home games in La Liga it could be a good choice betting on espanyol +0.5.
Also the totals are wrong in my eyes and I will bet on! Because of the last 2 h2hs in barcelona, I will decrease the stake a little bit.
H2h:
Espanyol Barcelona Real Madrid 1:0
Espanyol Barcelona Real Madrid 1:0
Espanyol Barcelona Real Madrid 2:4
Espanyol Barcelona Real Madrid 2:2
Espanyol Barcelona Real Madrid 2:1
Espanyol – Real Madrid 4/10 stake on AH Espanyol+0.5 @ 1.861
Espanyol – Real Madrid 4/10 stake on over2.25 @ 1.921
Fair line (always homeline / homeodd / awayodd):
0.00 1.85 2.17
Fair totals (line / underodd / overodd):
2.75 1.96 2.04
--------------------------
Huelva - Sevilla
It is a statistic based bet on over, also defenders Castillo Edu Moya and Mario will be out on Huelva’s side.
On Sevillas side also a defender will be out - Ivica Dragutinovic (important).
Huelva – Sevilla 7/10 stake on over2.25 @ 1.941
Fair line (always homeline / homeodd / awayodd):
0.00 2.04 1.96
Fair totals (line / underodd / overodd):
2.75 2.01 1.99
The best bet in this weekend:
Atletico M - Getafe 1
Sociedad - Gimnastic 1
What do think about this ?
big guy from Santander still out against Mallorca?
No Žigi***263; from Racing Santander is back, because he was suspended lat game, so now i think he will play.It will be a big blow for Santander if Žigi***263; will not play.I think he will play.Correct me if i am wrong.
Cheers
Stipe
aleksandar83
15-12-06, 22:53
I want to ask something ? Do you have someone information about injuries players this week ?
Thanks.
thewaytozion
15-12-06, 23:32
not always complete list, but good overview:
http://www.betinf.com/spain_injured.htm
Zigic will play for Santander.
thewaytozion
15-12-06, 23:53
so that nobody will ask again :oops: :D here the probable line-ups
Mallorca
-----------------Tristán---Víctor---------------
-------------------------------------------------
Jankovic--Jordi López--Pereyra---Jonás----
-------------------------------------------------
Navarro--Ballesteros----Nunes---Varela----
-------------------------------------------------
-----------------------Prats--------------------
Santander
-------------Zigic---Munitis----------------
--------------------------------------------------
-----Serrano-----Colsa---Vitolo---Scaloni----
--------------------------------------------------
Luis Fernández--Garay--Rubén--Pinillos-----
--------------------------------------------------
-----------------------Toño---------------------
The best bet in this weekend:
Atletico M - Getafe 1
Sociedad - Gimnastic 1
What do think about this ?
My opinion is that you should give arguments or stop spamming.
First of all I want to welcome Eric "thewaytozion" to our spanish tipping fellowship!
Welcome and good luck!
Secondly, here are my previews for todays games, but unfortunately in Greek.
http://betshow.com/previews-spain15sab.htm
Tomorow at 13:00 you would be able to find the rest of the games here:
http://betshow.com/previews-spain15.htm
And finally, I have too picks today:
Deportivo - Ath Bilbao (+1/4)
Deportivo at the time being seems to be an average team with their players ranked between 1-10 at places 4-5-6 the most. And it's quite weird cause there are 11 international players in the team leading by coach Joaquin Caparros. The president accused him for many things and I agree on some of the accusations. Not that the president is 'innocent' cause the crabs in his pocket, leaded Depor in this situation. Caparros sent away experienced players who could lead their youngest team mates and compose a really nice team. Today Coloccini and Sergio are out, and they maybe are in bad form but they are players who can lift the team in their shoulders. Many changes are expected in all lines, something that will make Depor struggle in my opinion, placing De Guzmán next to Juan Rodríguez as a defensive midfielder !!
Athletic de Bilbao in great mood after winning Rerce at home and performing brilliant against Real Madrid. New coach Mane is a good addition in the team that seems to be in the right way. Unfortunately, important right winger Joseba Etxeberria didn't make it and will step out to give entrance to Murillo. In formed striker Urzaiz leading the attack again.
As I said before, Athletic these days is more a "team" than Deportivo, that seems to be an inexperienced one, knowing just to defend and nothing more. And the morale is Athletic's favour!
Deportivo: Aouate - Manuel Pablo, Arbeloa, Juanma, Capdevila - Juan Rodríguez, De Guzmán - Cristian, Verdú, Riki - Arizmendi.
Athletic: Aranzubia - Expósito, Prieto, Sarriegi, Casas - Murillo, Javi Martínez - Iraola, Yeste, Gabilondo - Urzaiz.
Pick: A, Odds: 2.00, Stake: 5, Bookmaker: Ladbrokes
************
Mallorca - R Santander (+0.5)
Mallorca without Ibagasa and with Arango in bad form, will find it difficult to perform decent against solid Racing de Santander that welcomes back important forwards Nicola Zigic and Pedro Munitis. Mallorca has just won once at home, where they can't be as effective as they are on the road. Important right winger Jonas is back but Ibagasas' loss (No 10') is more important. Also striker Maxi is out. Racing will score here and of course they will defend. How many goals can Mallorca score?
Mallorca: Toni Prats - Varela, Nunes, Ballesteros, Navarro - Jonás, Basinas, Pereyra or Jordi López, Jankovic - Arango, Víctor.
Rácing: Toño - Pinillos, Rubén, Garay, Luis Fernández - Scaloni, Vitolo, Colsa, Serrano - Munitis, Zigic.
Pick: A, Odds: 1.75, Stake: 5, Bookmaker: Pinnacle
***********
I was about to take Valencia too today, but Canizarez' last minyte loss, prevented me. Valencia with Albelda and Baraja in the middle line, can feel secure and act like we know them.
Zaragoza of course is not to underestimate and especialy at home they are fearless. Maybe the over is the best bet here.
Good luck!
both team also can score.
go for over 2.5ball
Mallorca - R Santander (+0.5)
Mallorca without Ibagasa and with Arango in bad form, will find it difficult to perform decent against solid Racing de Santander that welcomes back important forwards Nicola Zigic and Pedro Munitis. Mallorca has just won once at home, where they can't be as effective as they are on the road. Important right winger Jonas is back but Ibagasas' loss (No 10') is more important. Also striker Maxi is out. Racing will score here and of course they will defend. How many goals can Mallorca score?
Mallorca: Toni Prats - Varela, Nunes, Ballesteros, Navarro - Jonás, Basinas, Pereyra or Jordi López, Jankovic - Arango, Víctor.
Rácing: Toño - Pinillos, Rubén, Garay, Luis Fernández - Scaloni, Vitolo, Colsa, Serrano - Munitis, Zigic.
Pick: A, Odds: 1.75, Stake: 5, Bookmaker: Pinnacle
With both sides having lost their last matches, Mallorca and Santander look to bounce back. As you said the Islanders has a weak home record and since only 2 points seperate the teams, I'm scenting a draw.
Did anybody think about Zaragoza vs Valencia over 2.5 @1.91 ???
Did anybody think about Zaragoza vs Valencia over 2.5 @1.91 ???
Absolutely, Canizares will be replaced by the unexperienced Butelle.
That's huge miss for them.
Zaragoza plays very attractive at home and i think that they will create many chances.
And with Milito ufront they must score at least 2 goals.
And Valencia with Moro and Villa upfront will score at least one goal.
So agree with you about the over 2.5 goals.
Claudiu2007
17-12-06, 00:09
Higuain to real madrid !!!! It a good transfer for the madrid team , in their impossible mission to win the La Liga ( Barca will win this year too , because i don't think that Sevilla have the strenght to keep their pace ) . With this Argenitan/Franch player real will increase their chances to catch Sevilla or Barca..... if Llaporta would have brought this player insted of Gudjohnsen :( ......Gonzalo "Pipita" Higuain is a VERY good striker( i saw him in a lot of games and he is realy something !!!!!)
About the trip to Barcelona , at Espanyol , i believe the capital based team will win...they can not affort another loss , no mather the good shape Tamudo's team shows
PICK : Away win (1.80 in Romania) or Real Madird to score (1.15 :( :( :( :( )
Levante - Celta (0)
Levante in bad run nowadays will have another hard time against one of the best away sides in liga. Today Levante is facing some good losses, as captain and important right back-half Iñaki Descarga, sub central def Frederic Dehu , skilful but out of form fw Olivier Kapo (all injured) and important defensive midfielder Diego Camacho (suspended) are not available. Ex Roma captain Damiano Tomassi (played good midweek in copa), will replace Camacho. But the greatest reason I am against Levante, is the fact that coach Lopez Caro will not give entrance to Félix Ettien, who is in my opinion Levante's best player. Ettien is not signing his contract renewal and he is under some kind of silent punishment. At least I can't find another reason for him not playing. When he came in against Barcelona (1-1) he almost turned the game up side down...
Celta is among the best away teams in liga. Today they are missing important def mid Borja Oubiña and his natural sub Pablo García is sidelined too. Fernando Vázquez, will most probably try a 4-1-4-1 formation that was used last year with great success (when the other def half, Iriney was injured). Of course Baiano, Canobbio and Nene are in the starting line up and they are players who can destroy any defense in liga, even Celta is not playing well as it happened against Depor and Real recently.
Levante: Molina - Manolo, Álvaro, Alexis, Rubiales - Carmelo, Berson, Tomassi, Courtois - Riga, Nino
Celta: Pinto - Angel, Contreras, Lequi, Placente - Iriney - Gustavo López, Jorge Larena, Canobbio, Nené - Baiano
Pick: A, Odds: 2.05, Stake: 6, Bookmaker: Pinnacle
*************
Recreativo - Sevilla
Region mini derby as both are teams are from Andalucía. Nuevo Colombino will be packed today, as there was a sold out since Thursday! If Sevilla win, they will reach the 800 victories in primera division.
Recreativo de Huelva welcomes back central defender Mario, but regular right back Edu Moya, remains out. Sevilla without important left winger Adriano (injured) but has a wide squad and Puerta who is replacing him is an excellent player (tall, fast and skilful). Central def and captain Javi Navarro is suspended and defender (central and left side) Dragutinovic and midfielder Maresca remain sidelined. Good news for Kanouté, who is available after losing the AZ game past Tuesday.
Difference in quality? Sure. Motivation? Great by the hosts, I guess Sevilla will enjoy the good atmosphere and perform decent. Recent losses by Espanyol and AZ (UEFA) should have shaken them a bit. Sevilla has a chance to climb up on top place, as Barcelona enjoying Japan vacations. Odds are fine.
Recreativo: López Vallejo - Merino, Beto, Mario, Dani Bautista - Santi Cazorla, Jesús Vázquez, Viqueiras, Aitor - Sinama Pogolle, Uche.
Sevilla: Palop - Daniel Alves, Aitor Ocio, Escudé, David - Jesús Navas, Poulsen, Renato, Puerta - Kanouté, Lusi Fabiano or Chevantón.
Pick: A, Odds: 2.20, Stake: 6, Bookmaker: Globet
************
Espanyol - R Madrid
Someone said in the forum: "I hate when people picking underdogs, to get famous", or something like that.
Damn... I will never do this and as you can see, I am picking the clear (ok, not that clear) favorite here! As long as Capello is fielding Real with his mind in defense and Emerson, Diara stuck in the center of the field unable to help in the creation part, I am willing to lay galacticos in every chance. And here I have a chance, with high flying Espanyol hosting Madrid. When did Real had a good time in Montjuic stadium? At least not recently.
Espanyol missing Riera for 2nd game in a row and two defensive midfielders Costa, Fredson who were absent in the last games too. Tamudo, De La Pena, Garcia, is the new triplet on fire in liga and will be extra motivated facing the capital side. Real is without Beckham and important Helguera. Important midfielder Diarra is back after serving one game suspended. Ronaldo seems to be in good form, being Real's more active player in last games. Van Nistelrooy who was disappeared in the last game against Sevilla may lost his place to Robinho. Real lost with hands down in Sevilla, had a hard time against Athletic de Bilbao at home and will struggle once again in Barcelona.
Espanyol: Kameni - Zabaleta, Jarque, Torrejón, Chica - Rufete, Moisés Hurtado, De la Peña, Moha - Luis García, Tamudo.
Real Madrid: Iker Casillas - Míchel Salgado, Sergio Ramos, Cannavaro, Roberto Carlos - Raúl, Emerson, Diarra, Guti - Ronaldo, Van Nistelrooy
Pick: H, Odds: 4.00, Stake: 4, Bookmaker: Globet
Atletico lost at home last week against fast improving Espanol. Getafe only managed to draw agst Betis.
This Madrid derby looks nice for Atletico to regain its lowered confidence and move to CL 4th spot.
Can anyone post the squads, missing, so that my thoughts on a clear HOME WIN are reconfirmed.
2-0 Correct Score.
hi mprafter,
please let us have yr favourite bets for today ?
Adothehaque
17-12-06, 11:03
I go on Celta Vigo -0 (DNB)
Levante - Celta Vigo. Today the clash between Levante and Celta.
Celta Vigo: Celta, is not in great form the last weeks. The last 3 matches Celta played were ended in a draw. Today against Levante they have new chances for a win. I think Levante is the perfect opponent to get the 3 points. Celta has a good striker with Baiano, and their defense is solid. Celta must win to get in the race for european places. If they dont win, the differences in points with concurrents much. Another fact for going for an Celta win is that Celta on the road is much better then Celta in an homematch. Celta lost only 1 away game against Espanyol.
Levante: Levante booked last weeks different results. They had a poor result in Gimnastic (2-1 lose) and lost midweek on penaltys against Atletico in the cup. Last home game for the competition against barcelona Levante booked a draw, but Barcelona fielded not their strongest squad but a 'B team' cause they had that week an important match in the Champions League. Levante won from 7 home matches just 2 of them.
I think Celta will get the win here. Celta has much more quality in their team, and they have a good striker who is in form the last weeks. (Baiano) I think Celta will win here but there is a little risk for a draw here. So I have Choose Celta (DNB) Draw no bet. Wich means if this match is a draw, you get your money back.
For more picks please visit my blog
I just can't see that real lose 2nd game in row or play draw, they just have to win, 0 or 1 point from max 6 that's not like real and to espanyol is enough last weekend win Atletico
any info about the game R. Sociedad - Gimnastic ? any missings ?
AleksUnited
17-12-06, 14:12
Any missing players for Espanyol?
Any info about match Atletico - Getafe ?
Any info about match Atletico - Getafe ? i dont have a clue about this game. anybody from spain knows more please help.
Difficult week - I only have one bet this weekend (posted on the main page too). As Mantis did, I would too like to welcome Eric on the team - the best of luck to you!!!
Espanyol - Real Madrid
Espanyol w/o: defensive midfielders Costa and Fredson + winger Riera.
Real Madrid w/o: Beckham +CD Helguera
Well, I have to go against my good pal Mantis in this one! Espanyol has been in a good trend, and H2H statistics shows that Espanyol has had the edge recently against Real. But I expect their run to end today:
Why:
Espanyol has played some good games lately, and even beaten some good teams like Sevilla and Atletico. But its’ common for both wins, that Sevilla missed important players like Poulsen and Navas, plus recent performances has shown that Atletico simply isn’t a big side without Maxi & Petrov!! No doubt Espanyol has made good appearances, but the wins against big teams has been a result of these teams having important missings.. therefore I think people credit Espanyol too much – surely their attack and defense has improved, but they aren’t a quality side, though..
Real Madrid actually surprised me last week.. They gave a good struggle against one of the best home teams in Europe imo… - Especially as Diarra was missing.. He’ll be back, meaning Real’s defensive will be stronger.. Furthermore Ronaldo looks sharpe, and had good opportunities against Sevilla – his form is better this season.. Yes, Real lost to Sevilla, but it was a close game and Sevilla can beat any team in the world at home, no doubt! Therefore I’m pretty confident that Real will get back on their feet today against a weaker side..
With Diarra back, I just can’t see Espanyol scoring more than once, if they score at all – even though their attack has improved – in general defense has been solid for Real Madrid this season.. But on the contrary I’m pretty confident Real will score with the very offensive Espanyol line-up.. Only one defensive midfielder will weaken their defense and organization + Ronaldo in form convince me about this bet!!
I’ll cover with 1-1, and make this a medium-big bet.. Only reasons why this odds is so high on Real is Espanyol high-flying and Real lost last weekend, but from my point of view Real is best travellers in the league when they are in strongest line-up!! I think Real will show their travelling-abilities :) against a weaker side on the uptrend!!
Line ups:
Espanyol: Kameni - Zabaleta, Jarque, Torrejón, Chica - Rufete, Moisés Hurtado, De la Peña, Moha - Luis García, Tamudo.
Real Madrid: Iker Casillas - Míchel Salgado, Sergio Ramos, Cannavaro, Roberto Carlos - Raúl, Emerson, Diarra, Guti - Ronaldo, Van Nistelrooy
Pick: A, Odds: 2.10, Stake: 6, Bookmaker: Stan James
Pick: Correct score: 1-1, Odds: 7.00, Stake: 1, Bookmaker: Interwetten
Will you stop with that nonsense?
Lol what a shock from Villareal the smoke was certainly there great example of what a bunch of mercenaries and a hungry group of footbolers can do when they clash.
Great accuracy on Real mprafter :)
Litost wrote: Lol what a shock from Villareal the smoke was certainly there great example of what a bunch of mercenaries and a hungry group of footbolers can do when they clash.
Great accuracy on Real mprafter
Thx Litost, but I still was quite irritated as the line-up I had expected wasn't fielded.. --> Meaning that not all my arguments were valid.. many were , but not all as Diarra and Ronaldo was benched!!
Real just have solid defense this season - don't play that well, but on the road they are effective, no doubt about it!!
Dont know what Villarreal is doing.. I've promised myself I'm not backing them before after Christmas, as they will be a whole lot stronger, when Matias Fernandez arrives + when Gonzalo and Pires are back! - They really need to get defense back on track, and it seems Fernandez is very welcome as Riquelme isn't his old self!!
+ nice picks on Internacional, showing that value-betting is profitable in the long run.. Barcelona was clearly better, but they can't win all matches!!
Litost wrote: Lol what a shock from Villareal the smoke was certainly there great example of what a bunch of mercenaries and a hungry group of footbolers can do when they clash.
Great accuracy on Real mprafter
Thx Litost, but I still was quite irritated as the line-up I had expected wasn't fielded.. --> Meaning that not all my arguments were valid.. many were , but not all as Diarra and Ronaldo was benched!!
Real just have solid defense this season - don't play that well, but on the road they are effective, no doubt about it!!
Yep Capello style funny thing is no doubt it works they are signing again at the end usual Real/Barca sprint on the cards tough i really hope Sevilla goes all the way !!
Dont know what Villarreal is doing.. I've promised myself I'm not backing them before after Christmas, as they will be a whole lot stronger, when Matias Fernandez arrives + when Gonzalo and Pires are back! - They really need to get defense back on track, and it seems Fernandez is very welcome as Riquelme isn't his old self!!
Bunch of #$%#& ,yes maybe with chilean wonderkid they'll improve but allrady have cracking players like forlan and .... this is why football is great colective sport
+ nice picks on Internacional, showing that value-betting is profitable in the long run.. Barcelona was clearly better, but they can't win all matches!!
Hmm Barca was better but Inter knew what was doing i just had feeling barca balloom would explode at some point no better place ,still tough barca one of the teams i most profited in past season this one i was in red numbers with them so we are probably even :) ... oh and watch the seasonal atletico win at nou camp when Torres performes up to his name :o .
Cheers :)
...
Great accuracy on Real mprafter
Thx Litost, but I still was quite irritated as the line-up I had expected wasn't fielded.. --> Meaning that not all my arguments were valid.. many were , but not all as Diarra and Ronaldo was benched!!
Real just have solid defense this season - don't play that well, but on the road they are effective, no doubt about it!!
...
I guess Capello realized that things can not work with Emerson and Diarra in the middle line and placed Guti instead of Diarra to give Real more offensive options. He didn't change his 4-2-3-1 thouhg and Ronaldo paid the price. If Real field Emerson and Guti in the center and Ronaldo - Ruud up frond in a 4-4-2 formation, things will get much better for them.
Still Real won and this matters, congrats Mprafter !
Litost !!! Amazing pick on Internacional !! Thumps up!
Mantis wrote:
I guess Capello realized that things can not work with Emerson and Diarra in the middle line and placed Guti instead of Diarra to give Real more offensive options. He didn't change his 4-2-3-1 thouhg and Ronaldo paid the price. If Real field Emerson and Guti in the center and Ronaldo - Ruud up frond in a 4-4-2 formation, things will get much better for them.
Well, I just had to reply on this one... About thr 4-4-2 system we totally agree - but even though Emerson has improved, I think it would be much better fielding Diarra and Guti in the middle.. I see Diarra better both defensively (both better in stamina and strength) and better offensively.. But Diarra & Emerson doesn't work together, especially not on Bernabeu.. Furthermore I'm so angry seeing Raul pulling back in the middle to get the ball - he has always scored goals in the box - he isn't creative, but he's a striker with great finishes.. He needs to stay in the box!! Still I prefer Ronaldo in-form, but I just can't understand why Capello can't see Raul is better when he's in the box.. In the match yesterday only one guy was in front of the ball, Ruud, and they need more people in front the ball - too many is behind it!!!
Litost wrote:
Bunch of #$%#& ,yes maybe with chilean wonderkid they'll improve but allrady have cracking players like forlan and .... this is why football is great colective sport
Yep, it's very unsure what the effect will be.. But defense is much weaker without Gonzalo and it just doesn't work with Cani - I just can't understand why isn't getting a succes.. Probably too much centered around Riquelme!!
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