View Full Version : Pick of the Day 19/1
Hello, I'm re-opening the thread for Monday.
Please do not open thread left and right just because you're in a hurry, you don't want anyone else to grab your pick or whatever-. If one of us moderators has missed the timing completely then I can see it's ok (and the time for that would be around 4-5 am European time, not much sooner). Opening threads early in the evening is not acceptable in any way.
I wish we had some kind of timing device to unlock threads, that way it would all be very fair.
Anyway, happy hunting today.
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So for the first time I will be able to give the first pick here.
But now, after some hectic days, I have to take some more picks in these days to get to the limit.
And I'm returning naturally to my beloved NBA:
LA Lakers - Phoenix Suns Pick:2 Odds: 2,46 at Pinnacle
WON 88-85, although Suns were also needled by injuries.
Phoenix Plays for the 4rd time in 5 nights, and this is the only thing that scares me here. Now with Stoudamire and Cabarkapa returning to play they won all three games with the toughest this night vs. Portland. So there is some improvement in their play, and I don't see why they shouldn't win with so undermanned Lakers team.
As for Lakers, they will not be so tired playing after one-day rest, although it will be also 3rd game in 4 days for them, and now having so many people to play this can also be a problem. After losing 4 in a row, they won 4 of 5, all of them in their own building, but with bad teams. Yes, they started to get into games with great defensive pressure mentality and it gives them chances every night with such teams like Phoenix, atlanta, Cleveland or Denver, but I see here big problems for them to stop some Suns players here.
In Lakers everything is in Payton's hands, and also Medvedenko's. Payton especially should get upper hand against young Brazilian Barbosa, but maybe Barbosa can get him in trouble (like Parker in the past) with his quickness. As for Medvedenko, he will be in chech vs. Stoudamire.
And this is where Suns have big advantage - forward's positions. Stoudamire is already tough to handle, and Marion always was tough to cover for Lakers even in full squad. There is also versatile Joe Johnson as SG, maybe McDyess will be able to contribute and some of their "big" players.
All in all, I see here Suns as a more talented team with such player's personell available in both teams, so this odds present big value for me.
Australian NSL WOLLONGONG WOLVES - KINGZ FC x * 3.65 * CENTERBET
The Football Kingz come back from a goal behind to win 2-1 / odds was around 6 / Lost
Wolves coach John Turner "If they beat us and end our unbeaten streak it will be the highlight of their season, we don't want to be that highlight."
"The Kingz have nothing to play for and we have a lot, a team with nothing to play for should not beat a team that has plenty to play for.
this game starts 8:37 it won't be finished before 10.00 could qualify today.
Wollongong unbeaten club record of 10 consecutive matches without defeat . Kingz down at the bottom 17 points behind, so why would it be a draw ?
last week reverse game ended 1-1 draw after 1-0 HT. Recently Kingz started to play close games 1-0 losses ect which surely some improvement. More than that two "old-new" signigs former national players ex Leeds defender Danny Hay and Tampere striker Noah Hickey boosting the morale funny enough since last game.
After a week training we could expect better play because that time was so to speak coming off the airplane which is my team kind of play :wink:
Beleive it or not, the Kingz are in an enviable position despite being bottom of the NSL with just one win in 17 games. That's because short of the club folding, things can only get better. There is no pressure on the players. Only concern no team has completed the season with just one victory until now.
WOLLONGONG Wolves coach John Turner will arrive at WIN Stadium for tonight's National Soccer League clash with the Football Kingz not knowing which players he has available. Ben Blake, Michael Hawrysiuk and Dragas will undergo fitness tests at 4pm, while substitute Tanju Balabanel is suffering from food poisoning.
"The Kingz have nothing to play for and we have a lot, a team with nothing to play for should not beat a team that has plenty to play for.
"If they beat us and end our unbeaten streak it will be the highlight of their season, we don't want to be that highlight."
Newcastle vs Fulham
Newcastle win @ 1.61 with Bet 365
PICK WON 3-1
Odds have been cut which takes away from the value in this bet but I think the Geordies will get the job done tonight. Saha isn't playing which is a negative for their attack but may band the rest of the team together or cause some disillusion in the other players. Either way that is irrelevant as the main thing here is the hunger of the Newcastle team to pick up 3 points and pound the Fulham defence.
Anand V. v Bareev E 1 @ 2.10 @ Gamebookers WON 1-0
8th round of chess tournament. I will not say much about it , beacouse havn't time right now , just few words. Anand is 1st after 7 rounds , he have 5 points , Bareev on 11 place with 3 points. Anand need to win this game if he want to win this tournament , and he want it. After that game , Anand will play black , with Adams , Kramnik and Topalov , it will be realy hard games for him , and can be everything , that's why he need to win today. Odds around 2.10 is not bad at all , but can be better , anyway , i think , that Anand will win today against Bareev.
My pick of the day will be from EPL.
Newcastle Utd vs Fulham Fulham over 0.5 @ Nordicbet @ 1.55
People believe that Newcastle will win this game easily. I do not share this opinion. I think that Fulham will create a bit of a surprise today. And since I think that the game will be over 2.5 goals, I'll take the bet that Fulham will score at anytime. Sorry for not writing more but there's not much to be written for a bet that I'm just expecting a team to score.
Good luck to all coming from a weekend that was not the best for all of us.
PICK WON 3-1
NBA: Wizards vs Bulls Take: Bulls @2.53 from Expekt
Newcastle United v Fulham <2.5 @ 1.95 @ gamebookers
not gonig as good as last month, but waiting for the turkish league. that is where the value for me is, since i can follow it closely
here comes a pure statistical pick
NU went under in last games and fulham has 2 unders in last five.
fulham is not attacking a lot away and so does newcastle not. i expect a close game here. i also took 1-0 with small stakes
Newcastle - Fulham - over 2.5 goals @ 1.99 (Pinnacle) 3:1 - bet won :lol:
Can I miss three overs in three days? We'll see... -I guess not... :wink:
The main problem with that bet is Newcastle. They just can't find their scoring form and they are realy bad in scoring goals - at home they score only 1.36 goal per match and I think that is too low for them. I am waiting for this team to explode and beat someone comfortably. They played 7 unders in last 8 matches and that is exactly opposite what would I expect from Newcastle... So I will try once again and hope that Shearer & Co. finally produce 2 goals or more.
On the other hand Fulham is having great season so far and they score enough goals that I am sure they will score one goal tonight also. Saha will probably leave to Manchester soon and he will surely try to score for goodbye from his old club.
So at least 2-1 for Newcastle and I'll be back in the hunt for possitive numbers again...
Good luck! :wink:
19-Jan-2004 15:40 EST
Sacramento Kings -6.5 -110 206.5ov -110
Los Angeles Clippers +6.5 -110
Sacramento is the visitor team here and a hdc -6.5 is given from books for away win. But , I have diiferent opinion. Here Kings a very in-form team , manages to win their opponents easy and with lot of points. And on the other hand Clipperers are completely out of form , their play is very poor and one of their best shooters is injured. So. I disagree with that handicap as I think difference tonight will be big more than 15 points.
So, my pick : Sacramento Kings win -14 @2.65 sportingbet
Saha will probably leave to Manchester soon and he will surely try to score for goodbye from his old club
be careful about the over bet. saha isnt playing tonight, and dyer is still taking bellamys place as a pseudo-striker (when he's not a striker).
Pick fo today is from English Premier
Newcastle United v Fulham X2 @2.18 Gamebookers.
I don't understand why odds are so high on Fulham.I realy don't.Just Because Newcastle drew against Man U?The same Man U that lost this round at Wolves(s**h).Remember that Fulham beat Manchester at Old Trafford.
The last away matches haven't been so good for Fulham,0 points in 3 matches but I think today thay will grab at least one point.
Fulham's away stats 10 3 2 5 15-17.
Newcastle's home stats 11 5 3 3 15-6.
I also belive that it will be an under game.Surely Sheerer won't score that much today,and it is the only real good striker Newcastle has.
Vancouver - Dallas Dallas ML @ 2,70 (Pinnacle) Bet won, 2-3 FT
prediction here (http://www.nhlpunter.com/teamspil/default.asp?sk=Overview&us=seteamspil&teamspilID=262)
My 7th pick will be from tennis:
Sluiter Raemon NED - Ancic Mario CRO pick:2 odds:1.72 BetandWin PICK WON 2-3!!!
This is second time this two players meet, first time young Croatian beat Raemon in very tuff match 6-7,6-4,7-6.I was watching Ancic last year on Wimbldon where he lose from Agasi 3-2 after he leading 2-0!Ancic last year compiled 9-13 record on hard courts, 3-4 on clay, 2-3 on grass, 1-1 on carpet***8230;In doubles captured first career ATP title in Indianapolis (w/Ram)***8230;Earned a career-high $277,743.Sluiter helped Netherlands qualify for Davis Cup World Group with play-off singles victory over India's Prakash Amritraj in dead rubber in Zwolle***8230;Went 1-1 in Davis Cup singles play***8230;In doubles, reached finals at Delray Beach (w/Verkerk) and Groningen Challenger (w/Hemmes Jr)Earned a career-high $356,693.So last year was very good for this players but tonight i think Ancic will win becouse he is more motivated and his time is still comming.
New York (-8.5) to beat Toronto - 1.91 / centrebet
I haven't a lot of time recently. But here we go...
There is really nothing to analyze here. Even if Raptors are with Carter, they'll lost in Madison Square Garden. And with Houston, Marbury, Van Horn this handicap (-8.5) should be easy to beat. Knicks are hot at the moment, chasing for a playoff spot. Maybe it's a time for Stephon to explode in front of home crowd ? We'll see...
My 4th pick (2/3, +46):
Philadelphia Sixers - Seattle Supersonics, under 192.5 @ 1.91 (Gamebookers) WON (81-90)
My main reason for this pick: only in 2 of 19 Sixers home games this season total number of points was above margin for today game. And that was at the beginning of the season against San Antonio (100-96) and New Orleans (99-106 OT, at the end of regulation score was 89-89). Two days ago Philly played at home against Memphis, the team with similar profile as Sonics and the final score was 87-91 (178, I get some money betting on under :wink: ). Sonics currently are on the road, in first two games of this tour they scored 88 vs New York (196) and 84 against Wizards (183). Of course, they can be very dangerous behind three point line but I don't think that Sixers defense will allow them high percentage FG for three points.
Sixers - Kenny Thomas (ankle) didn't play last two games, for today is questionable, but expected to play.
Sonics - Evans (upper respiratory infection) didn't play last game for Sonics, but that isn't so important.
The game is scheduled at 20:00 CET today.
Swedish Sports Awards:
Sportsleader of the Year: Marika Domanski-Lyfors @ 1.35 (NordicBet)
Marika is the leader of the women's national football-team. Sweden ended up on second place in the world cup last year. Persnally I don't think it was a very great achievement since Sweden only beat teams ranked below them, but I'm confident that the jury will choose the coach Marika anyway. 3.5 million Swedes watched the final and the players celebrated the silver in front of thousands of people in Stockholm. I would be very surprised if Marika didn't win this prize.
The other candidates are:
Ulf Karlsson (Athletics)
Kenth Hultqvist (Bandy)
Yannick Tregaro (Athletics)
For me, this isn't just a fun-bet. I have placed a high stake on it.
Anaheim-0,5 to beat Calgary @2,03 Pinnacle 1-5 LOST
Calgary will probably be today without their leading scorer, Iginla. Mighty Ducks coming off a 2-1 win to Vancouver and this game showed some improvements in their defensive play, Giguere snapped his slump and saved 24 shots incl. penalty. The lack of Iginla might be decisive for the visitors as he picked up 24 of his 39 points on the road and Flames have negative record at Anaheim's Arrowhead Pond- never won in their last 9 trips.
My 4-th pick of this competions come from the NHL
Dallas Stars - Vancouver Canucks Over 4,5 1.83 Gamebookers.
This is the game between 2 of the NhL powers; but they entered this game with different morale. Vancouver is known to play better away from home and in fact they are winless in their last six home games.
Dallas is coming back on winning style and for this game Modano will play again and this is a big boost for their offensive game. Dallas have exceled in defence in their last games but tonight i hope that the home side will score at least 4 goals:).
Dallas have already defeat Vancouver 2 times and i think that the home side will get their revenge tonight.
2 offensive teams can score at least 5 goals.
Good luck to all tonight.
Sorry for opening! My pick is in the competition, right?
I wrote Newcastle - Fulham over @1.85 at bet365.
Bye :arrow: By the way : FT Newcastle - Fulham 3-1
Barbora Strycova @1.70 to beat Arantxa Parra (WillHill)
Bet WON, Gasol & Miller scored 44 points compared to Ming's and Mobley's 26.
Bet: BASKETBALL - NBA H2H - Most points. Gasol P & Miller M (Memphis) - Mobley C & Yao Ming (Houston).
Found a value bet again :P
The combined score of Pau Gasol and Mike Miller in last 10 home Memphis games:
Total: 296 points, 29.6 points per game on average.
The combined score of Yao Ming and Cuttino Mobley in last 10 away Houston games:
Total: 277 points, 27.7 points per game on average.
While Memphis pair scores more points on average statistically, looking at recent players' form and career averages against tonight's opponents I agree that Ming/Mobley is still a favourite. But only slightly - like 55%-45% in their favour. With odds 2.80 I will dare betting against them surely.
Well I'll take my pick tough I've finished with my competition yesterday. I got one correct in the end after all!!! :D
Well today I'm going for NHL again:
Minnesota - Nashville ML Nashville 1,71 Gamebookers
Well this two teams are meeting for the third time this season and both games ended in a 3:3 draw (both in Minnesota)! The Nashville Predators are unbeaten in their last six games and their home record is very impressive 15-5-4-1! Plus that they haven't lost in their last 9 home games, record 7-0-2! So they are very good at home and are playing some great hockey lately. Their goalie Tomas Vokoun is in great form at the moment, so I think that Minnesota players are gonna have some difficulties beating him. Especially since this is already their 4th game in 6 days, they'll be a bit tired I think! The Wilds are 7-7-8-0 away from home, so as we can see they played a tie quite a few times. So that's why I'm taking money line so in case of a draw I get my money back! Cause I am certain that they can't take a point in this match, but just in case of a 3rd tie in a row!
Good luck to all!
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