View Full Version : Greek Superleague, Round 11, November 18-19.
Greek Superleague, Round 11, November 18-19.
18 Nov 06 14:00 CET
AEK Athens v Kerkyra
1.20 5.50 11.00
18 Nov 06 18:00 CET
Aris v Olympiacos CFP
5.50 3.30 1.60
19 Nov 06 14:00 CET
Apollon Kalamarias v Ergotelis
2.05 2.90 3.60
OFI Crete v Egaleo Athens
2.15 2.80 3.50
19 Nov 06 15:45 CET
Larisa v Iraklis
1.90 3.00 4.00
19 Nov 06 16:00 CET
Panionios v Xanthi
2.15 2.80 3.50
19 Nov 06 18:00 CET
Atromitos v Panathinaikos
6.50 3.50 1.50
PAOK v Ionikos
1.33 4.25 8.00
I choose 2 games to bet this week from Greek (Super)league...
First game:
Aris - Olympiakos = Olympiakos is 10 times better team than aris, if anyone has watched the game of aris will understand what i mean. For me aris is one of the biggest favourites for second division...1..55 or 1.60 or odds like these for the away win of olympiakos i think is a present !! so i go with high stakes with olympiakos 8/10
Second game:
Larisa - Iraklis = Larisa is very strong team at home...Iraklis with a new coach (Jojef Bubenko - Ex coach of panionios) ...This coach is a lover of defence ! Newspapers writes that ex-boss - (Mafia) :P of panionios Mpeos will manage Iraklis ..... i don't know if this is true (Personal i believe that will manage paok and not iraklis) ....But iraklis trying to change this difficults that have now... So i'll take with medium stakes the under 2.5. 6/10
............
So 2 bets this week
Aris - Olympiakos = 2 ....... High stakes
Larisa - Iraklis = Under 2.5 .......Medium stakes
....
Good luck whatever you choose !
well while i think that aris will finally not be one of the teams that will play in the 2nd division next year, i must admit that the odd for away win in this match(1,65 at gamebookers) is way too high.A possible explanation could be that until now aris has only one defeat at home(last week against aek 1-3).The truth is that aris hadn't played with any big teams until last week at home.
I do not know anything about aris' missings so i would like someone to write them later.
As for olympiakos,they have two straight defeats away from peiraias(atromitos-osfp 1-0,panathinaikos-osfp 1-0) so they really want to end those straight bad results.Because of next wednesday's game against valencia at mestalla , olympiakos' coach will probably rest some star players ,like konstantinou while djordjevic and rivaldo may not play for the hole game.Ouaddou will not play because of an injury.Furthermore, olympiakos' players are really boosted by a meeting they had with the president of the team who asked them to win the double again.....so they should be fully motivated.Don't forget that they want to go to spain in a good mood which would only come with a win against aris.too many words to propose the win of the champions against a not so powerful aris.
aris-olympiakos
pick: away win
odds: 1,65 gamebookers,vistabet
stake: 8/10
As for panathinaikos' game on sunday we should consider that pao has won the latest matches with the same score,1-0!!!!i think that this has happened at the last 4 or 5 games.so against atromitos' team ,which is very strong at home ,it is very possible to see the same score again.....0-1.Therefore under 2,5 is very possible.
pick:
exact score 0-1
odd: 6,5 eurobet
stake : 3/10
--------------------
under 2,5
odd: 1,60 gamebookers
stake: 7/10
well while i think that aris will finally not be one of the teams that will play in the 2nd division next year
And why is that my friend ??? They already managed to visit the Hellenic countryside twice, so, you should consider it happen a third time as only a matter of time... ;)
Btw, Sollied resting players for the Mestalla clash ? Why :o
well while i think that aris will finally not be one of the teams that will play in the 2nd division next year
And why is that my friend ??? They already managed to visit the Hellenic countryside twice, so, you should consider it happen a third time as only a matter of time... ;)
Btw, Sollied resting players for the Mestalla clash ? Why :o
well my friend , i know that you and your team would be very happy to see aris getting relegated,because of your personal reasons,but i believe that at the end they will manage to save their as* and stay at the first division.
You should consider that since they have only 1 defeat at home, at the 2nd round they will at least win the easier games at salonika.
About sollied's decision to rest some players i should remind you that olympiakos has many chances to get the 3rd position at his group and play at uefa cup.Since away from home we have 2 draws in 2 games , we might take another point at spain(this is football after all).
last but not least, i would like you to remind me ,if your team has found a president to organise your mp**rdelo :oops: and also which players is your manager going to rest in order not to be tired at your next european game which is on.........(what day exactly??????? :oops: :oops: :oops: )
cheers my ( ;) ) friend
OK Yannaki (or should I say Yanni :oops: ), let me start answering...
First of all, neither me nor my team will be happy if Aris gets relegated (..again :oops: ). Whenever they are not absent from the first division, it's a real joy to meet with them. Again, personally, I wouldn't care less.
Like you say, in the end, they might manage to save their a**. But again, they might not... :(
There will be no "easier games" for them during the 2nd round ! Only a feeling of running out of time (games). No air to breath, suffication, death :( :(. Remember how many easy games they managed to win at home two years ago...
Now, to the Greek "legend" ;)
Of course you have a good chance of finishing 3rd in your groupe but, beating Shakhtar at home should get the job done. Btw, I got the impression of a very proud fan because his team managed to draw twice so far while being a visitor... Would you be kind enough to remind us your team's all time record in the CL ? 0- :oops: - :oops:
As far as our mp**rdelo is conserned, latest news suggest that there might be a new "tsatsa" on her way to run it :D :D . Only hope and pray for us ;)
I 'm surprised you haven't noticed that we are not participating in any European competition this season... We did earn a ticket by playing football you know, but, instead of us, this f*cking joke called Super(dirty) Liga, picked up another Athenian neighbourhood to represent our country..
Bumping to the Andalucians was God's will. Justice, if you like ;)
Take care my friend, and, don't harm them to much... ;)
SuperDuper
18-11-06, 03:14
Best Forward for Olympiacos, cypriot Michalis Konstantinou, will be out for rest!
Aris plays a very attractive game but it can't score!!! The last loss from AEK was totaly unfair... Aris lost so many changes to make the score 2-0 or 3-0, but AEK get back because is more experienced team and in that game more lucky!
My opinion is that Olympiakos will have many problems! The stadium will be full of Aris supporters and I think that Aris will score!!!
The BEST bet is OFI Crete against Egaleo.
They already managed to visit the Hellenic countryside twice, so, you should consider it happen a third time as only a matter of time...
look man,thinking like this could lead us to the fact that since paok has not won any championship 20 years now,it should be a matter of time for you to win it again....but i believe that it won't happen soon :oops: :oops: :oops: .........it's your way of thinking ,not mine...
I 'm surprised you haven't noticed that we are not participating in any European competition this season... We did earn a ticket by playing football you know, but, instead of us, this f*cking joke called Super(dirty) Liga, picked up another Athenian neighbourhood to represent our country..
well i guess that epo is responsible that you have nothing to show at those 20 years(except for 2 or 3 caps of course) because there are so much dirty against northern greece's teams,but ok until you find a good manager this will always be your answer.
Of course you have a good chance of finishing 3rd in your groupe but, beating Shakhtar at home should get the job done. Btw, I got the impression of a very proud fan because his team managed to draw twice so far while being a visitor... Would you be kind enough to remind us your team's all time record in the CL ? 0- - ...
1)i cannot be sure that osfp will win shakhtar at home.we may take a draw ,but i do not trust osfp at home.you see i am a proud fan as far as greece is concerned because the results at cl cannot leave happy boy
2)i said that this is football after all and since valencia need only 1 point to secure the first place, a draw in mestalla is not too far away.But if our champions go there too tired even this 'hope' will be lost be fore the game starts
3)i mentioned before that there is no 'red' fan that can be happy with our results at the champions league.but perhaps you can tell us about your record at the champ.league.remember me plz.... :oops: :oops: when are you finally going to sing 'ti wraia pou kounaei mes'tin toumpa to sentoni' or anything familiar with this????? :oops: :oops: this century :oops:
good night my friend.....if are still mad you can go outside and break a car that belongs to a poor guy who happens to be from athens.....this is what they learned you to do.... :oops: :oops: :oops:
good night my friend.....if are still mad you can go outside and break a car that belongs to a poor guy who happens to be from athens.....this is what they learned you to do.... :oops: :oops: :oops:
I thought I was talking to someone serious...
Goodnight kiddo, I guess we both wasted our f*cking time.
Btw, it's PAOK and not paok, and, it's OCFP and not OSFP :oops: :oops:
Aris-Olympiakos
Well, Aris is obviously in a quite difficult situation. Just 1 win after 10 rounds is too bad record for a team with such high prospects. Although there is much talk about Aris' attractive play, good results cannot be achieved. The basic reason is that the team can't score. Only 1 goal scored was the best Aris' players could do in the last 4 league games. No goals, no wins. It's so simple. I think that if there wasn't so much talk about the attractive football, coach Ogios would have been sacked a few weeks ago. However, this will happen sooner or later if the team keeps on underachieving.
To make things worse, Aris was eliminated from the Greek Cup in midweek. They played away (about 200km from salonika) against a 2nd division team and -guess what- they couldn't score. The game ended 0-0 and Aris lost 2-0 after extra time.
So, Aris has to fight very hard to get out of the **** he is for the time being. The match against Olympiakos is not perfect to bounce back but I expect the players to give their best. There are some absences for coach Ogios, as well. The most important is the one of defender Papadopoulos. The others cannot affect the team so much, imo. We should also take in mind that Aris had to play an 120 minute match (the Cup match) on Wednesday, so freshness is questioned.
On the other hand, Olympiakos didn't have a cup game but some of his players had to travel abroad in midweek to play for their national teams (the Greek n.t. played in Paris). Moreover, Olympiakos has to travel to Valencia next week for a Champions League game. Not so crucial one imo, as Oly is only after the 3rd spot in the group and everything will be settled in the last round when they host Shakhtar in Athens. Even with a loss at Mestalla (the most probable result) Olympiakos can finish 3rd if he wins over Shakhtar (no matter what the Ukranians will do against Roma).
The situation at Olympiakos is getting better. After a couple of bad results and some kind of internal crisis, the outburst in the last round against Apollon Kalamarias (5-0 FT) helped everyone in the team to cool down. However, it's more than obvious that Olympiakos can't be as good and effective as he was in the last years. The team is slower and, if we exclude the match against poor Apollon, the attack is not that good. Twelve goals scored in nine rounds is much below the level Olympiakos had settled the previous years. Six of them were away, divided to 5 matches.
In addition to the above, starter forward Konstantinou (he has played in every single game until this round) is sidelined for this match because coach Sollied decided to rest him. Defender Ouaddou will also lose the game but he is not as important as Konstantinou is. Okkas should take Konstantinou's place in the starting 11 but he might not be fresh enough as he played for Cyprus n.t. against Germany on Wednesday (and he scored).
All in all, Aris can't be trusted. They already played against AEK at home and lost (1-3). But Olympiakos is not at his best, afterall, and Aris' home ground is traditionally one of the hottest in Greece. Today it will be full. So, even if Olympiakos is the favorite to take the 3 points I wouldn't touch the away win at odds around 1.60. I expect Aris to be more careful in defence, as the draw can be considered as a positive result. Considering the problems both teams face in attack and the importance of the game, I expect a tight match up and low score.
under 2.5 goals @1.75 (Gamebookers) 6/10
AEK-Kerkyra
AEK is playing the best football in Greece this season and at the moment the team is in good form. After the disappointment at the Greek Cup (AEK was eliminated from a 2nd division team) AEK bounced back perfectly in the last round with a huge win (5-0) against Larisa. So euphoria was settled again and everyone thinks about the crucial C.L. game against Milan in Athens (next Tuesday). Ooops! There is a match against tiny Kerkyra today. Coach L. Ferer is very well aware of this trap, and as AEK aims to the championship, he is trying to awake his squad. However, when Milan is ahead it's difficult to think about a home game with Kerkyra.
Besides the match against Larisa AEK doesn't score so much. Seven goals scored in 4 home games. Not that bad, not that good. Even against Larisa, 3 of the 5 goals were scored in the last 5 minutes. This superb result was surely the exception.
On the other hand, Kerkyra is the positive surprise of the season. Being high in the table so far is not exactly what it was expected but it is surely deserved. However, they lose a lot of their power when playing away. Only 2 points taken after 4 games. But it seems that they can't be outscored easily as they have conceded only 4 goals, one in each away game. Furthermore, they haven't lost yet with over than one goal margin.
AEK will miss right back Georgeas, who is one of her best players (mainly because of his passion), and Kerkyra will miss influential Flavinio. The latter could be an important absence but Kerkyra is supposed to defend for the most of the time, so I don't think that his absence will affect a lot Coach Tennes plans.
Finally, I expect AEK to win, as they have to follow leader Olympiakos and Panathinaikos. Nevertheless, this was an easy guess. What matters for me is whether it will be an easy win (or not). I don't think it will be. Of course AEK can win by 2 or 3 goals. They are the big team, after all. But I think Kerkyra will fight hard based on her solid defense (2nd best in the league). And AEK players may have in mind the upcoming match against Milan. So I will take a little bit of risk with juicy odds. Low stakes, anyway.
AEK win by 1 goal margin @3.60 (sportingbet) 2/10
HELLO TO ALL,
My predictions for this weekend:
Atromitos-Panathinaikos
Atromitos +1,+1.5 1.545 (bet365) 5/10
Under 2, 2.5 1.75 (bet365) 7/10
Larisa-Iraklis
Iraklis +0.5 1.825 (bet365) 7/10
Aek-Kerkira
Kerkira +2 1.40 (bet365) 9/10
Aris-Olympiakos
Aris +1 1.71 (bet365) 7/10
Kalamaria-Ergotelis
Draw 3.00 (bet365) 2/10
Panionios-Xanthi
Draw 3.00 (bet365) 3/10
Ofi-Egaleo
Draw 3.00 (bet365) 2/10
(INITIAL BANK 100-CURRENT BANK 94-STAKED 20-WON 14)
GOOD LUCK TO ALL
My predictions for this weekend:
Atromitos-Panathinaikos
Atromitos +1,+1.5 1.545 (bet365) 5/10
Under 2, 2.5 1.75 (bet365) 7/10
Larisa-Iraklis
Iraklis +0.5 1.825 (bet365) 7/10
Aek-Kerkira
Kerkira +2 1.40 (bet365) 9/10
Aris-Olympiakos
Aris +1 1.71 (bet365) 7/10
Kalamaria-Ergotelis
Draw 3.00 (bet365) 2/10
Panionios-Xanthi
Draw 3.00 (bet365) 3/10
Ofi-Egaleo
Draw 3.00 (bet365) 2/10
Please, add your estimation regarding PAOK - Ionikos, too...
Latest news from Olympiakos camp indicate another very significant absence... Midfielder Stoltidis is out 100%.
GrimReaper01
18-11-06, 14:30
Aris +1 Asian hcp @ 1.70 is very tempting...
Btw, it's PAOK and not paok, and, it's OCFP and not OSFP :oops: :oops:
oh my god ,i must sh*t up now.......i got embarrassed :oops: :oops: ....what a mistake!!!!!!
...but, instead of us, this f*cking joke called Super(dirty) Liga, picked up another Athenian neighbourhood to represent our country..
:
yeah you are more serious than me ;)
Stop fighting guys. Or do it through e-mails.
No more fighting, my friend.
Pitty there are not so many cars with Athenian numberplates in Belgium, otherwise I would have gone out to destroy some of them...
Unless Yannakis shows up with his :idea: :idea:
Nahh, I guess I 'll have to wait a couple of years till he gets 18... :( :(
Whats about PAOK tomorrow?
I think this is clear home win. PAOK have solid squad and doing good job in home and Ionikos isn't good away. But any injured, suspended players?
AEK - Kerkyra 4-1 FT.
Second high-scoring game in the row for AEK and this time they won 4-1 after being 0-1 back in the beginning of the game. Impressive of course...
http://resources.sport-fm.gr/supersportFM/images/news/aek21_3.jpg
...AEK celebrating another wide home win...
Aris - Olympiakos 2-3 FT.
Aris led 2-0 at halftime and still managed to lose against Olympiakos whose star Rivaldo is MVP of the league for once again. Two personal goals got the visitors 2-2 in 5 minutes and after that it was a matter of time before Olympiakos would get a third one. Getting everything by Rivaldo has been enough for Olympiakos so far and i have no doubts it actually IS enough for greek league.
http://resources.sport-fm.gr/supersportFM/images/news/osf_26.jpg
...how Rivaldo equalised for Olympiakos in the 66th minute...
Whats about PAOK tomorrow?
I think this is clear home win. PAOK have solid squad and doing good job in home and Ionikos isn't good away. But any injured, suspended players?
No important missings for PAOK, only right back Kotitsas will miss for Ionikos.
PAOK should win this, however Ionikos is looking to bounce back with their new coach and their squad can do damage in any game now.
I wouldn't dream of going for PAOK at these prices.
Everything worked perfectly for AEK on Saturday. What was Ferer's main fear? The possibility that the players wouldn't be fully concentrated because of the match against Milan. Kerkyra solved the problem when they scored at the 1st minute of the game. Of course its a little bit paradox to say that it was good for AEK to trail from the beginning. However, it was the perfect awakening.
Moreover, for a team that has great problems in finishing it's a present from god to score twice from the penalty spot and once from a direct free kick.
Anyway, Kerkyra had to play with 10 players from the 30th minute. This is were the case was closed.
xaralas you did great last weekend with your picks.any picks for this round?
thx
xaralas you did great last weekend with your picks.any picks for this round?
thx
picks coming up... ;)
Here we go...
Apollon K. - Ergotelis
Coach Katsavakis (Apollon K.) stated before the game: "We don't care about the spectacle, we only need the win in this game, 3 points is our aim, nothing more." Honest statement, representative though of how mid-table or low-table teams approach the games. No wonder why we have encountered so many 1-0 victories in latest games and of course so many under2.5 games. It is how the teams approach the games. One forward upfront, conservative approach, low risks, midfield games, low scoring chances. This game is surely expected to be something like that.
Apollon has improved but still has a long to way to go and what is obvious is that this team has nothing to do with last year team. They can even get relegated this season. Still, if they've got one chance, this chance is the home games against same-level teams. No wonder why Katsavakis was so straight forward, it is no secret these games are crucial.
Same goes for Ergotelis, a very solid side this season, which now settles for the table position they belong to which is mid-low. They have fought every game losing very hard to the big clubs in the league, while they have gained some great results against the others. Another interesting thing about them, is the board's approach to the game. Apart from the fair-play stuff and the celebration before its game, they have impressed me in this week for another reason. Midfielder Tasic, one of the best players of them this season, regular starter for the team and in great form, was suspended by the board cause of discipline issues and was ruled out of the crucial upcoming game. I doubt many more teams would do that and his absence can be indeed important. Apart from the weakened midfield, team is in good form, strikers are always dangerous and they won't go down easily in Thessaloniki.
Bettingwise, everything is pointing for under2.5 here, which is priced way too high comparing to other games lower prices and 1.63 from Betfair right now, 1.62 from Betsafe, are very good opportunities for this game. Apollon is always stronger at home, Ergotelis can't lose easy, so under2.5, 0-0,1-0,1-1,0-1 for exact scores, seems good enough for a 9/10 bet. I'll have to add 2 more units for the draw here as well, even if i will personally try 0-0 and 1-1 which are priced much better. In any case, GL!
Pick: <2.5, Odds: 1.63, Stake: 9, Bookmaker: Betfair
Pick: D, Odds: 3.20, Stake: 2, Bookmaker: Betfair
OFI - Egaleo
OFI's last four league games could all have been 0-0 in final whistle. Two of them actually did end this way, while last game in Kerkyra ended 1-0 with a goal in last minute of injury time, while game against Aris ended 1-0 with a late goal by Drulic. All in all, OFI -after a great start- is having some serious problems with scoring. Drulic is intelligent, but heavy and slow, while finishing abilities of Nwafor and Oforiquai are in question. No other guy can score in the squad really. In this game, like they did against Larisa (FT 0-0), Oforiquai will start on the right of midfield, but since this didn't succeed against Larisa, i see no reason why it should work against a better side defensively, Egaleo. Last away game of Egaleo was at Panionios where they got a 0-0 draw and obviously, that will be the plan here as well.
I have the feeling that Egaleo's recent losses (PAOK and Giannina) have disappointed the squad which is facing kind of a downtrend and that's why OFI has got a chane here, however no way it will be easy, not with their offensive capacity. And when one good defending team is defending, while a mediocre offensive side attacks, then most times, defence wins and this game suits Egaleo very well, so i wouldn't exclude another 0-0 draw here. In any case, only OFI can ruin a safe under2.5 here and i will only cover 2-1, which at current circumastances sounds crazy. Under2.5 is given at a realistic price of 1.55, which is almost common in every bookmaker in the market and that doesn't qualify it for a good deal here. I'll take my chances and go for under2.0 for 1.89 by Pinnacle (9/10) with some extra stake on 2-0 and 1-1 exact scores to improve that 1.55 on under2.5, even up to 1.65-1.70. GL!
Pick: <2.0, Odds: 1.89, Stake: 9, Bookmaker: Pinnacle
Panionios - Xanthi
Panionios is unbeaten for some 6 rounds now and that is an indication of the improvement in the team which started off rather badly. Xanthi is on same stream obviously as they come off their first two (consecutive) wins in the league after a very bad start on their side as well. In my mind, this is a "no hard feelings, draw". Everybody is happy: Panionios unbeaten for 7th game (impressive), Xanthi unbeaten in a away game, a 3-game undefeated run is another sign of improvement. Draw is given at average 2.80 and this is very reasonable here. 3 units for both teams to go undefeated in this game. Bookmaker is Ladbrokes, highest price in the market: 3.00. GL!
Pick: D, Odds: 3.00, Stake: 3, Bookmaker: Ladbrokes
http://www.bettingadvice.com/showPredictionsLeague.php?idMenu=79
Apollon-Ergotelis
The coach of the home team, Katsavakis, made quite clear how important is this match for his team. Apollon (like all the teams of the same caliber) is mainly based on his home ground to grab points. This team has not any special attacking qualities but with passion and tight defense manages to have an acceptable home record (2-2-1, 5 goals scored, 3 goals conceded).
On the other hand, Ergotelis comes from 3 straight defeats and if we take a look at the table we can see a terrible away record (0-1-4). But is this the whole truth? I don't think so. Ergotelis had to play with all the good teams of the league until now. The away matches he gave were against Olympiakos, AEK, PAOK and Atromitos. All of them among the 6 best teams of the league, at the moment. They also played against Panathinaikos at home in the last round and lost 1-0 by a late goal. Ergotelis have 11 points (2 more than Apollon) but I think that with a more balanced schedule, he could be even higher at the table.
I don't think that Ergotelis will reach 4 defeats in a row. It wouldn't represent the quality of the team. The 3 last defeats were against Olympiakos, Atromitos (both away) and Panathinaikos (at home). We could say they were anticipated. But against Apollon it's another story.
I 'm pretty confident that Ergotelis can take the draw, even the win. But instead of taking X2, I will prefer a more complicated bet. I expect low score, as well.
Ergotelis by 1 @5.00 (Gamebookers) 3/10
Draw @3.00 (Ladrbrokes) 5/10
Under 2.5 goals @1.60 (Gamebookers) 8/10
any info about PAOK - Ionikos ???
OFI-Egaleo
I think it's the most possible under 2.5 goal of this weekend, in the whole Europe. Let's take a look at the recent results of both teams (last round on top):
Kerkyra 1 0 OFI Crete (goal scored at injury time)
OFI Crete 0 0 Larisa
OFI Crete 1 0 Aris Salonica
Apollon 0 0 OFI Crete
OFI Crete 3 3 Panathinaikos (crazy match, totally unexpected))
Egaleo 0 2 PAOK Saloniki
Panionios 0 0 Egaleo
Egaleo 1 0 Xanthi
Ionikos 0 1 Egaleo
Egaleo 0 0 Atromitos
I think that there are no comments needed. All I want to add is this: Imo Egaleo is on a downtrend. They have over performed until now and it's not logical to be undefeated away from home after 4 games. I believe that OFI can win this one. Of course it won't be a walk in the park. All in all, I think that there only slim chances OFI will lose this match so DNB seems safe enough. 1.55 for the home win, money back in case of draw.
Under 2.5 goals @1.55 (Gamebookers) 9/10
OFI DNB @1.55 (Sportingbet) 10/10
Larisa-Iraklis
Just one week ago this 1.95 that Betoto offers for the home win would be perfect. Larisa is traditionally a powerful home team and Iraklis sucks this season, being at the very bottom of the table and still winless.
However, it's that feeling that Iraklis is not really that bad and that sometime he's gonna start winning. Furthermore, the team changed coach (Bubenko is the new one) and we all know that change of coach usually has a positive effect on the team.
Larisa will miss defender Chloros and Iraklis will miss Poursanidis, Prittas and Papazaharias. Important absences for Iraklis, I think.
I still believe that Larisa should win this one but I have a strange feeling that stops me from betting on it. So, No Bet for me.
Panionios-Xanthi
Coach Lienen (I'm not sure about the spelling) is doing a good job with Panionios and despite the slow start the team remains undefeated for 6 consecutive matches. However, only 2 wins among them. Anyway, there is a significant improvement and in the last rounds Panionios plays good football, especially at home.
Xanthi managed to bounce back after 8 winless rounds and finally took a pair of wins at home. But there is no real similarity with the solid team of last season.
For this match there are no important absences for Panionios (only Fernandez). It's not the same for Xanthi. Antzas, Garpozis, Vizio, Papadimitriou and Olisadebeh are all sidelined. Coach Lemonis has limited solutions and imo these missings can affect negatively Xanthi's play.
Although Xanthi comes from a couple of positive results I think that Panionios is closer to win. Gamebookers offers 2.30 for the home win and it's attractive. However draw is quite possible, as well. So I prefer Panionios DNB that will give me my money back in case of draw.
Panionios DNB @1.50 (Sportingbet) 8/10
Under 2.5 goals is a probable scenario but odds are too low. I found 1.40-1.50 that doesn't match the risk.
Atromitos-Panathinaikos
This match is quite difficult for both teams. Atromitos is a great team this season, still unbeaten at home (managed to win Olympiakos and draw against AEK). Panathinaikos is always among the top teams and still unbeaten away this season.
Last season's result:
Atromitos 1-0 Panathinaikos
There are no important absences for the home team. Only Oliveira but he wouldn’t be a special factor in this game. Panathinaikos will miss his side backs A. Seric and M. Nilson. Both were starters recently. But Vyntra is ready and will cover Nilson's place and Darlas can replace Seric, as well. After all, the Croatian is an average player. The most important news is that captain Papadopoulos is ready to play. Panathinaikos' forward lost a couple of games because of injury but he is ready to return. So Panathinaikos has all his offensive weapons available.
Panathinaikos is desperate for the win and in acceptable form lately. A lot of players had to travel abroad in midweek because of n.t. games but it's been 4 days since then and everybody should be well rested. It will be a tight match as they are all this season, when Panathinaikos is interfered. And it's more than obvious that 1.50 for the away win doesn't deserve the risk.
Under 2.5 could be an option, but I have faith in the attacking abilities of Atromitos players and a goal from the home team could easily spoil this bet.
Normally this is a No Bet game. Under 2.5 goals seems risky and away win in such odds has no value. However there is always a profitable bet on Panathinaikos and it has been proven effective for my wallet many times this season. Panathinaikos can't score much and has tightened his defense. These facts have led to a lot of 1-0 (or 0-1) wins. Over than 90% (10/11 in all competitions) of Panathinaikos' wins were by 1 goal margin this season.
And as this match is concerned, I can't see how Panathinaikos will win (if he wins) with more than 1 goal margin. Odds (3.60) are attractive and risk is imo not so much more than betting in away win @1.50. I think there is enough value here.
Panathinaikos by 1 @3.60 (Sportingbet) 4/10
Cover: DRAW @3.50 (gamebookers) 2/10
PAOK-Ionikos
There is a huge favorite in this one and of course it's PAOK. Despite the financial problems PAOK is doing very well in the football pitches. After coach Vukotic came to the team PAOK is in super form and has managed to win 4 out of his last 5 games (the 5th one was a draw away at the local derby against Aris). So, 5 positive results in a row with Vukotic at the bench.
On the other hand Ionikos is terrible this season. They managed to take the draw against Panionios at home in the last round and this was their first point since the early September (6 defeats in a row). This tragedy led to a change of the coach but I don't think he can do miracles especially at a hard ground for every visitor, such as Toumba (PAOK's home).
No important absences for any of the two teams.
results of the last 5 seasons:
05-06: PAOK Saloniki 6-1 Ionikos
04-05: PAOK Saloniki 3-0 Ionikos
03-04: PAOK Saloniki 2-0 Ionikos
02-03: PAOK Saloniki 3-0 ***921;onikos
01-02: PAOK Saloniki 2-0 Ionikos
All in all the home win seems to be quite probable here. But the best I could find was 1.37 (Betoto). Not good enough for a team that is in form but it is also PAOK. Not Panathinaikos, not Olympiakos, not even AEK.
Handicap -1 could be an option at tempting odds (2.00 @Sportingbet) but I can't trust PAOK for a huge win. In 4 home games this season they have won only once with more than one goal margin. And they have faced only against medium or low quality teams (Iraklis, Ergotelis, Kerkyra, Apollon).
So, I prefer to stay away from this one although I believe that PAOK will grab the win.
Apollon K. - Ergotelis
Coach Katsavakis (Apollon K.) stated before the game: "We don't care about the spectacle, we only need the win in this game, 3 points is our aim, nothing more." Honest statement, representative though of how mid-table or low-table teams approach the games. No wonder why we have encountered so many 1-0 victories in latest games and of course so many under2.5 games. It is how the teams approach the games. One forward upfront, conservative approach, low risks, midfield games, low scoring chances. This game is surely expected to be something like that.
Apollon has improved but still has a long to way to go and what is obvious is that this team has nothing to do with last year team. They can even get relegated this season. Still, if they've got one chance, this chance is the home games against same-level teams. No wonder why Katsavakis was so straight forward, it is no secret these games are crucial.
Same goes for Ergotelis, a very solid side this season, which now settles for the table position they belong to which is mid-low. They have fought every game losing very hard to the big clubs in the league, while they have gained some great results against the others. Another interesting thing about them, is the board's approach to the game. Apart from the fair-play stuff and the celebration before its game, they have impressed me in this week for another reason. Midfielder Tasic, one of the best players of them this season, regular starter for the team and in great form, was suspended by the board cause of discipline issues and was ruled out of the crucial upcoming game. I doubt many more teams would do that and his absence can be indeed important. Apart from the weakened midfield, team is in good form, strikers are always dangerous and they won't go down easily in Thessaloniki.
Bettingwise, everything is pointing for under2.5 here, which is priced way too high comparing to other games lower prices and 1.63 from Betfair right now, 1.62 from Betsafe, are very good opportunities for this game. Apollon is always stronger at home, Ergotelis can't lose easy, so under2.5, 0-0,1-0,1-1,0-1 for exact scores, seems good enough for a 9/10 bet. I'll have to add 2 more units for the draw here as well, even if i will personally try 0-0 and 1-1 which are priced much better. In any case, GL!
Pick: <2.5, Odds: 1.63, Stake: 9, Bookmaker: Betfair
Pick: D, Odds: 3.20, Stake: 2, Bookmaker: Betfair
OFI - Egaleo
OFI's last four league games could all have been 0-0 in final whistle. Two of them actually did end this way, while last game in Kerkyra ended 1-0 with a goal in last minute of injury time, while game against Aris ended 1-0 with a late goal by Drulic. All in all, OFI -after a great start- is having some serious problems with scoring. Drulic is intelligent, but heavy and slow, while finishing abilities of Nwafor and Oforiquai are in question. No other guy can score in the squad really. In this game, like they did against Larisa (FT 0-0), Oforiquai will start on the right of midfield, but since this didn't succeed against Larisa, i see no reason why it should work against a better side defensively, Egaleo. Last away game of Egaleo was at Panionios where they got a 0-0 draw and obviously, that will be the plan here as well.
I have the feeling that Egaleo's recent losses (PAOK and Giannina) have disappointed the squad which is facing kind of a downtrend and that's why OFI has got a chane here, however no way it will be easy, not with their offensive capacity. And when one good defending team is defending, while a mediocre offensive side attacks, then most times, defence wins and this game suits Egaleo very well, so i wouldn't exclude another 0-0 draw here. In any case, only OFI can ruin a safe under2.5 here and i will only cover 2-1, which at current circumastances sounds crazy. Under2.5 is given at a realistic price of 1.55, which is almost common in every bookmaker in the market and that doesn't qualify it for a good deal here. I'll take my chances and go for under2.0 for 1.89 by Pinnacle (9/10) with some extra stake on 2-0 and 1-1 exact scores to improve that 1.55 on under2.5, even up to 1.65-1.70. GL!
Pick: <2.0, Odds: 1.89, Stake: 9, Bookmaker: Pinnacle
http://www.bettingadvice.com/showPredictionsLeague.php?idMenu=79
Apollon K. - Ergotelis 0-0 FT. [+10.10 units won]
OFI - Egaleo 1-0 FT. [+8.00 units won]
:D ;)
Larisa - Iraklis 0-1 FT.
Winning goal scored in last minute of injury time (!) by Fortuzi for Iraklis...
Panionios - Xanthi 0-2 FT.
Ruining what would be an excellent 0-0 for me, Xanthi escaped with a win from Nea Smyrni with two late goals (!) in 85th and 90th minute...
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