View Full Version : Greek Superleague, Round 10, November 11-12.
Greek Superleague, Round 10, November 11-12.
11 Nov 06 18:00 CET
Egaleo Athens v PAOK
2.50 2.80 2.80
Iraklis v Aris
2.50 2.80 2.80
12 Nov 06 14:00 CET
Ionikos v Panionios
2.60 2.75 2.75
Kerkyra v OFI Crete
2.35 2.90 2.90
12 Nov 06 15:45 CET
Ergotelis v Panathinaikos
6.50 3.75 1.44
12 Nov 06 16:00 CET
Xanthi v Atromitos
2.00 2.90 3.75
12 Nov 06 18:00 CET
AEK Athens v Larisa
1.30 4.25 9.00
Olympiacos CFP v Apollon Kalamarias
1.13 6.00 15.00
(odds by Gamebookers)
Good luck guys for the saturday matches...!
Better to stay away?...or maybe some live betting with low or even
"medium" stakes...?
I'm only a liiiiitle interested in Iraklis - Aris derby of rivals from the
same town, Salonica...
Iraklis playing the worst soccer ever, a LOTS of trouble in the team,
no coach...
Aris hard to lose, 1 win 3 draws 2 lose 5-7 goals in away matches
But remember: hot local derby...everything's possible
If you must bet because you are addicted, :D watch CAREFULLY first
minutes live bet and go for half-time under. If you see low-quality
midfield game, go for it. GL!!
Aigaleo - Paok Hhhmmm....not for me!
If you must bet because you are addicted, :D watch CAREFULLY first minutes live bet and go for half-time under. If you see low-quality
midfield game, go for it.
Half-time under will already be below 1.10 (if given) before kick-off man, you're not "stealing a church" or anything, you know that right? ;)
If you must bet because you are addicted, :D watch CAREFULLY first minutes live bet and go for half-time under. If you see low-quality
midfield game, go for it.
Half-time under will already be below 1.10 (if given) before kick-off man, you're not "stealing a church" or anything, you know that right? ;)
oops sorry :oops: bad writing i wanted to say under in a "general way".
pick what you wish from the above:
HT Under 0,5 » 2.45 (risky but could be interesting)
HT Under 1,5 » 1.25
From betoto.com (bwin owns this site) maybe i'll try to push my luck...
hmm....second thought...the ceremony at local church ends before the
start of the match...there'll be nobody there.... :D :D :D
Egaleo-PAOK
Both teams are doing very well until now, especially Egaleo that this season fulfills even the most optimistic expectations of the fans. Table position is simlar for these two teams. Egaleo is at the 4th place (16 points) and PAOK is at the 5th place (15 points), after 9 rounds. They are both undefeated for a long time and PAOK has avhieved 2 wins and a draw with (new) coach Vukotic at the bench.
Usually PAOK are poor travellers when they come to play a match in Athens and this is a significant factor as this game is concerned. However Egaleo's home ground isn't "hot" in any case. Moreover, PAOK is expected to have a significant support from his fans (a lot of them live in Athens), although in the midweek the Super League's council decided that only home teams' fans should take tickets for the games from now on. However, on Wednesday Egaleo's president claimed that PAOK's fans will be welcomed for the upcoming match, so I think that one or two thousand of them will be at the stadium today and they may even outnumber the home fans.
Coach Vukotic (PAOK) faces some problems in selection as starter midfielder Charalambidis hasn't trained with the team for the whole week. Also, 1st gk Fernandez and Polish forward Mietchel are doubdful. But I think that the last two will be ready finally. Without these three players PAOK lose a lot of his offensive strength and his safety at the goalposts. If
we consider that PAOK had to play a cup game on Tuesday (won 1-0 away against 2nd division Panserraikos), in which a lot of starters were used, the level of freshness is a question for the team from thessaloniki. And this makes an advantage for Egaleo, too.
Nevertheless, if Mietchel and Fernandez (especially him) make it, all three outcomes have enough possibilities. I couldn't exclude the away win. Afterall, with Vukotic at the bench PAOK has somehow managed to grab significant results away from home in difficult games. 3 away games played and the results are 2 wins (at Larisa and ag. Panserraikos) and 1 draw (at the local derby against Aris).
I can't propose any bet for the winner of this match (no value imo) but I think that there won't be many goals scored (if any).
Both teams are defensive minded. Egaleo prefers to keep the clean sheet and produces only a few goal chances in every game. Last home game was against Xanthi and Egaleo had only two significant chances to score (managed once). Against PAOK I expect that coach xatzaras will be even more careful.
On the other hand, this season's PAOK is solid in defence. With a lot of young players at defence and at midfield, who run a lot and concede goals rarely. Furthermore, if forward Mietchel is sidelined (along with Charalambidis) PAOK may lose a lot of his firepower. But even if he starts, PAOK will have difficulties to score against Egaleo.
Egaleo has scored 5 times and conceded 4 goals in 6 home games. In last 4 games (h & aw) the results are 0-0,0-1,1-0,0-0.
PAOK has scored 3 times and conceded 5 goals in 5 away games. In last 4 games (h & aw) the results are 1-1,0-0,1-2,1-0.
Last season
12-FEB-06 Egaleo 1-0 PAOK
25-SEP-05 PAOK Saloniki 2-0 Egaleo
So, I think that the chances for under 2.5 goals are high enough here. The odds are nothing special but I think that they are at least realistic.
under 2.5 goals @1.50 (Gamebookers) 7/10
Egaleo - PAOK
This is a game where you know what you should expect. No team is way better than the other and it should be very very close.
Egaleo has the upper hand when it comes to form, but PAOK has shown signs of improvement lately and they will also fight for the win. In any case, this should probably be an under2.5 case of 1-0, 0-0, 1-1 and 0-1, as both teams are not scoring very much this season and their wins are mostly 1-0 ft ones. 3/4 for Egaleo and 2/4 for PAOK. This is their philosophy: stay solid in the back, hit on counter, score one and keep it. Mostly for Egaleo this has been the magic recipe so far and they are certainly capable of doing it again. After all, this IS how they won last year again.
PAOK on the other hand, despite having more quality upfront, they have no big scoring abilities, except when Miecel takes his gun. For this game, he is doubftul (will probably play though), but i trust Egaleo's mentality and defence not to concede more than one in any scenario.
Bottomline: Really tight game, under2.5 can't really escape the final score and most probably a draw, as 0-0 and 1-1 are really serious possibilities here, especially the first one. So, 3 units on draw at 3.10 by Betfair, plus 9 for under2.5 at 1.65 by Eurobet (1.60 as a single by Gamebookers). GL!
Pick: <2.5, Odds: 1.65, Stake: 9, Bookmaker: Eurobet
Pick: D, Odds: 3.10, Stake: 3, Bookmaker: Betfair
Egaleo - PAOK 0-2 FT.
Iraklis - Aris 0-0 FT.
GrimReaper01
12-11-06, 00:29
Ionikos - Panionios: Ionikos @ 2.60 are very tempting. They just changed their manager and in Greek League a chenge like this is always important for the team and has positive effect. A draw is very possible, so you can use in a combo 1X really easy.
Olympiakos - Kalamaria: Bet365 offers Kalamaria +1.5 & +2.00 @ 1.90. This value is great for me. Due to weather conditions in Greece, I don't expect Olympiakos to have an easy game. Possible win with 1 or 2 goals, but with a bit of luck Kalamaria can escape with a point.
Ergotelis - Panathinaikos: I expect Panathinaikos win, as they are back on track and now it would be like destroying what they have built with a loss.
Olympiakos - Kalamaria: Bet365 offers Kalamaria +1.5 & +2.00 @ 1.90. This value is great for me. Due to weather conditions in Greece, I don't expect Olympiakos to have an easy game. Possible win with 1 or 2 goals, but with a bit of luck Kalamaria can escape with a point.
the weather is fine, but castillo is out(the best player at the moment).
IMO kalamaria +1.75@1.9 no value.Clear HW
Possible win 1 or 2 goals,but with 2, half stake is lost
GrimReaper01
12-11-06, 01:46
Olympiakos - Kalamaria: Bet365 offers Kalamaria +1.5 & +2.00 @ 1.90. This value is great for me. Due to weather conditions in Greece, I don't expect Olympiakos to have an easy game. Possible win with 1 or 2 goals, but with a bit of luck Kalamaria can escape with a point.
the weather is fine, but castillo is out(the best player at the moment).
IMO kalamaria +1.75@1.9 no value.Clear HW
Possible win 1 or 2 goals,but with 2, half stake is lost
They said that on Sunday evening there would be rain, heavy rain... and as you know Karaiskakis stadium can not cope with heavy rain.
Olympiakos - Kalamaria: Bet365 offers Kalamaria +1.5 & +2.00 @ 1.90. This value is great for me. Due to weather conditions in Greece, I don't expect Olympiakos to have an easy game. Possible win with 1 or 2 goals, but with a bit of luck Kalamaria can escape with a point.
the weather is fine, but castillo is out(the best player at the moment).
IMO kalamaria +1.75@1.9 no value.Clear HW
Possible win 1 or 2 goals,but with 2, half stake is lost
They said that on Sunday evening there would be rain, heavy rain... and as you know Karaiskakis stadium can not cope with heavy rain.
http://www.meteo.gr/cf.asp?city_id=61
***922;***965;***961;***953;***945;***954;***951;-sunday
we will see tomorrow ;)
Ionikos - Panionios: Ionikos @ 2.60 are very tempting. They just changed their manager and in Greek League a chenge like this is always important for the team and has positive effect. A draw is very possible, so you can use in a combo 1X really easy.
Ionikos desperately needed a morale boost and the difference to last week is that they got a seemingly very good portugeuse manager, plus they won away in the cup. In the beginning of season, we wouldn't have more than 2.00 for home win, that's for sure... DNB is ideal for me here. Of course, under2.5 is also very probable.
Olympiakos - Kalamaria: Bet365 offersKalamaria +1.5 & +2.00 @ 1.90. This value is great for me. Due to weather conditions in Greece, I don't expect Olympiakos to have an easy game. Possible win with 1 or 2 goals, but with a bit of luck Kalamaria can escape with a point.
Kalamaria will miss their most dangerous player, striker Bousi, who is team's first scorer and the team has no serious replacements for him. Also, Muravski and Amponsah will miss from the defence. I can only see Olympiakos winning this game and Apollon's absences, plus Olympiakos need to bounce back after last round can turn that into a 3-0 or something. +1.75 is too risky, game seems like a no bet case.
Ergotelis - Panathinaikos: I expect Panathinaikos win, as they are back on track and now it would be like destroying what they have built with a loss.
That is no argument for me. Game vs Olympiakos was a totally different story and Panathinaikos won't treat Ergotelis like Olympiakos, that's for sure. Good thing is that Ergotelis has no hot crowd at home, despite their impressive record this season so far. Big value on away by one for me.
Ionikos - Panionios
Ionikos desperately needed a morale boost and the difference to last week is that they got: 1. A (seemingly) very good portugeuse manager named Ignacio to replace coach Tsiolis. 2. Two points back from a penalty which means they now have 5 not 3 in total, plus 3. They won Agrotikos away for the cup in midweek to proceed to next phase. So, they should be determined and boosted enough to overcome Panionios. In the beginning of season, we wouldn't have more than 2.00 for home win, that's for sure, however it's not only that Ionikos has many weeks to make a win, but Panionios has improved a lot and currently seems in good form. My call on the game is that either Ionikos will make it and win Panionios BY ONE, or both teams will get one point each after the game. This is my choice over dnb bet, cause draw pays nothing in dnb, while here we get some good cash in this case, which can't be neglected here, even if Ionikos is overestimated at 2.65. Draw is always an option in such games and Panionios has been very competitve lately to be underestimated. Still, too many facts on Ionikos side to point towards home win, so home win by one @ 4.20 by Interwetten , plus draw @ 3.20 currently by Betfair with 4 units for each pick. GL!
Pick: Home Win By One, Odds: 4.20, Stake: 4, Bookmaker: Interwetten
Pick: D, Odds: 3.20, Stake: 4, Bookmaker: Betfair
Kerkyra - OFI
This will be a very tight game. Kerkyra started the season in great spirit, but now that is fading out and Kerkyra is losing points. OFI did the same thing but they got less points than Kerkyra because of their heavy schedule, points that they now get and they seem to be in good shape following a steady form so far. What is very eminent here is both teams latest tendency to low scoring perfomances. Kerkya has been like that all season, they really lack a competent striker upfront, while OFI despite Drulic's star, has been more and more unable to create chances and score with the chances given. That is repeated so i would exclude bad luck out really. So, with Kerkyra having 4 out of 5 home games being under2.5 and OFI's current low scoring streak, i have an obvious choice here: under2.5. I expect both teams to enter with energy tomorrow, but if no goals are scored in first 15 minutes, it's an under2.0 really. Bad weather is expected, plus this is habitual for OFI to start at speed and then settle for low chances and bad game. That settling can also end in draw, 1-1 or 0-0, so i'll include that in my bets in small stake. So, 9 units on under2.5 at a good price (1.60 Gamebookers), plus 2 units on draw at 3.20 by Betfair. GL!
Pick: <2.5, Odds: 1.60, Stake: 9, Bookmaker: Gamebookers
Pick: D, Odds: 3.20, Stake: 2, Bookmaker: Betfair
Xanthi - Atromitos
Another balanced game of this weekend this one. Xanthi is getting better every game after a very bad start in the league, while Atromitos has already made a 3-win streak in the league, but had a disappointment in midweek in the cup. Visitors will miss striker Ntoe, probably their best remaining one, after Djebbour being sidelined and it is not strange that it's the midfielders that score for Atromitos this season. Xanthi knows that of course and will be very motivated to take all 3 points in their hot home ground. They have not been really good at home this season so far, but that still remains their big strength and team seems ready for Atromitos challenge. I can see Xanthi winning it in the end, but Atromitos is always dangerous and a side who's got Merino and Luciano on starting 11 can't be underestimated in any game no matter the conditions. My call for the game will be home win by one (3.80 Gamebookers 4 units) and the draw (3.30 Betfair another 4 units) as i can't see either Xanthi winning it without a big difficulty, but i can't really see Atromitos managing to bring Xanthi back to disappointments at this stage. GL!
Pick: Home Win By One, Odds: 3.80, Stake: 4, Bookmaker: Gamebookers
Pick: D, Odds: 3.30, Stake: 4, Bookmaker: Betfair
Ergotelis - Panathinaikos
I am fully aware of Karageorgiou's plan on the game. Realistic defence. Ergotelis can only aim on 0-0 in this game and that is imo the only escape for their team not to be defeated. Ergotelis is having a great record at home so far but that doesn't mean it is a home ground. In fact, in this game, Panathinaikos will play in front of their fans and home advantage isn't really there for the home team. Panathinaikos will miss captain Papadopoulos, but team seems in good spirit and quite close to enjoying football after a very long time. No, despite their advantages, Panathinaikos is not expected to have an easy evening, mostly because they can't treat Ergotelis the way they treated Olympiakos and Ergotelis can really defend and will close every possible way to their box. Still, Panathinaikos' form, mood and crowd are factors that can push the visitors to unlock the defense sooner or later. If that indeed happens, then the game will get different and if time is available Panathinaikos can score more. So, that should be an 0-1 case (most possible score, already 4 out of 6 Panathinaikos wins!), bigger away win or 0-0 draw. With that in mind, my bet on the game will be AH (+1) @ 2.10 (8/10)by 10bet with an addition of 0-1 FT (1/10). A small cover on 0-0 is suggested, or even the straight away win for Panathinaikos. I'll just take my chances and ask for more on this one. GL!
Pick: A, Odds: 2.10, Stake: 8, Bookmaker: 10bet
Pick: "0-1", Odds: 7.00, Stake: 1, Bookmaker: G'bookers
http://www.bettingadvice.com/showPredictionsLeague.php?idMenu=79
rantaplan1
12-11-06, 13:03
Xanthi is not the teams of th eprevious years.Atromitos is coming with a good form the last few games and is preparing to come back to the usual basis in the league.I think it will be a strong game and propably the under would be a good bet.On the other hand a draw will satisfy the coach of the away team too and i wouldn't dismiss that..!
GrimReaper01
12-11-06, 13:08
Olympiakos - Kalamaria: Bet365 offersKalamaria +1.5 & +2.00 @ 1.90. This value is great for me. Due to weather conditions in Greece, I don't expect Olympiakos to have an easy game. Possible win with 1 or 2 goals, but with a bit of luck Kalamaria can escape with a point.
Kalamaria will miss their most dangerous player, striker Bousi, who is team's first scorer and the team has no serious replacements for him. Also, Muravski and Amponsah will miss from the defence. I can only see Olympiakos winning this game and Apollon's absences, plus Olympiakos need to bounce back after last round can turn that into a 3-0 or something. +1.75 is too risky, game seems like a no bet case.
Fianlly, I took +2.00 @ 1.69... let's see. I really have the feeling that we will see a difficult game for Olympiakos...
Olympiakos - Kalamaria: Bet365 offersKalamaria +1.5 & +2.00 @ 1.90. This value is great for me. Due to weather conditions in Greece, I don't expect Olympiakos to have an easy game. Possible win with 1 or 2 goals, but with a bit of luck Kalamaria can escape with a point.
Kalamaria will miss their most dangerous player, striker Bousi, who is team's first scorer and the team has no serious replacements for him. Also, Muravski and Amponsah will miss from the defence. I can only see Olympiakos winning this game and Apollon's absences, plus Olympiakos need to bounce back after last round can turn that into a 3-0 or something. +1.75 is too risky, game seems like a no bet case.
Fianlly, I took +2.00 @ 1.69... let's see. I really have the feeling that we will see a difficult game for Olympiakos...
So, you really want/hope/pick Olympiakos to win by one... I can't translate this bet in any different way... I would try 1-0 and 2-1 if i were you with a cover for 2-0, 3-1 and 0-0/1-1. That would PAY more...
GrimReaper01
12-11-06, 14:21
if they win 2-0 or with two goals then bet is voided... so OK
But I really believe that they will keep playing bad...
Ergotelis-Panathinaikos
Ergotelis is still undefeated at home, while Panathinaikos is also undefeated away. Ergotelis lost his last 2 games, both away, by one goal margin, against Olympiakos and super-Atromitos. So it seems that he's gonna be a difficult opponent for Panathinaikos. In fact, the most difficult opponent of Panathinaikos is himself. The "greens" show us a miserable face this season and although with Munioz at the bench the things are getting better and better, we can't say yet that Panathinaikos can take easy wins. The win against Olympiakos (last round) gave a big boost to the players but it was more a result of smart strategy from coach Munioz and a not the outcome of great football.
5 out of six wins this season were by 1 goal margin for Panathinaikos. If we add the one (0-1 ag. 2nd div. Thrasimvoulos) for the greek cup this week (Wednesday) it makes 6 out of 7. Panathinaikos has also won 3 matches for UEFA CUP (prelim. included), 2 of them with 1 goal margin.
Panathinaikos will miss starter forward (and captain) Papadopoulos. But since Papadopoulos is not in good form this season, it's not a big blow. But take in mind that Salpigidis (the other starter forward of PAO) has get used to play alongside Papadopoulos. So, it may take some time before making a good pair with Mantzios (the one that's gonna replace Papadopoulos).
All in all, the momentum is on Panathinaikos' side. Morale is high and the team's play is getting improved. However, Ergotelis is a hard nut to crack and I think that the defensive play of coach Karageorgiou will be a problem for PAO. Since away win odds have no value @1.40-1.45, I believe that the best option here is away win by 1. It's the most common win of PAO and given the difficulties in this game, the most probable one.
I will cover it with "0-2 exact score", in case PAO manages to take a more comfortable win.
Under 2.5 goals could be a good option, as well. Odds round 1.70 are OK.
Panathinaikos by one @3.70 (Interwetten) 5/10
Exact score 0-2 @6.00 (Gamebookers) 2/10
Under 2.5 goals @1.70 (Gamebookers) 6/10
if they win 2-0 or with two goals then bet is voided... so OK
But I really believe that they will keep playing bad...
I don't mean to insist, but you don't get my point. Olympiakos can be bad and still clinch it 3-0. It's all about WHEN Apollon will concede their first goal.
Another nice betting weekend in Greece! ;)
All bets WON.
Egaleo-PAOK (FT 0-2)
under 2.5 goals @1.50 (Gamebookers) 7/10 WON
Ergotelis-Panathinaikos (FT 0-1)
Panathinaikos by one @3.70 (Interwetten) 5/10 WON
Cover: Exact score 0-2 @6.00 (Gamebookers) 2/10 LOST
Under 2.5 goals @1.70 (Gamebookers) 6/10 WON
Units staked: 20
Units back: 39,2
Profit: +19,2 units
Another nice betting weekend in Greece! ;)
Indeed man... ;)
Egaleo - PAOK 0-2 FT. +2.85
Ionikos - Panionios 1-1 FT. +4.80
Kerkyra - OFI 1-0 FT. +3.40
Xanthi - Atromitos 1-0 FT. +7.20
Ergotelis - Panathinaikos 0-1 FT. +6.00
Second flawless round in a row with profit won in every game...
Last round we had +39.75 units of profit, in this one total profit end up in +24.25 units...
The league is really paying back our patience and persistence here... ;)
Congrats to all friends ;)
You guys are amazing, thank you for posting your reviews and comments. Keep up the good work.
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